Newsquawk デイリー米国株式寄り付きニュース－NVDA、CEOを標的としたスパイ活動を調査；GOOG、TPUシステムの新バージョン2種を投入

DAY AHEAD: EVENTS: US President Trump is to meet with the Qatari PM today at 12:00EST/17:00GMT, with talks focused on efforts to reach a new ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations with Iran. Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings; COP31 begins (9-20th Nov). DATA: In North America, US NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, wholesale inventories (exp. 0.6% M/M, prev. 0.5%) and an Atlanta Fed GDPNow update for Q4 (prev. 3.4%). CENTRAL BANKS: Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) joins a moderated discussion; Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) speaks on the economic outlook. BoC publishes its Market Participants Survey. SUPPLY: US auctions USD 58bln of 3-year notes. EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Skydance (SKYD), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Hims & Hers (HIMS). WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US CPI, UK GDP. Notable earnings due this week include: AMAT, CRWV, CSCO, NBIS. US PRE-MARKET MOVERS SUMMARY ES +0.8% NQ +0.8% RTY +1.4% NVDA -5.3%: Launches investigation into CEO ⁠Huang's affair w/ 'Chinese spy' GOOG +2.2%: Google rolling out 2 new versions of TPU systems to challenge Nvidia CEG +2.3%: EPS & rev. topped alongside raising FY profit view NRG +6.5%: Bottom line surpassed exp. BRK.B -0.3%: Q3 earnings fall, accelerates buyback AMD +3.8%: Upgraded at Oppenheimer US Citigroup cuts US equities to Neutral from Overweight; cuts global tech to Neutral from Overweight. TECH: Nvidia (NVDA) - Board has launched an independent investigation following reports that CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. Independent directors and external counsel will oversee the review. Huang allegedly had an affair with a woman suspected by US intelligence officials of being a Chinese spy. Nvidia’s board said it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, reaffirming confidence in Huang, who will cooperate fully. Senior US House Republicans have requested a closed-door briefing from Huang on 18th November; Committee chairs Brian Mast, John Moolenaar and Rick Crawford cited national security concerns and sought details of Nvidia’s espionage safeguards. Huang must respond by 11th November, or propose an alternative date. US President Trump expressed support for Huang following the reports; Trump described Huang as a “fine person” and said he should remain CEO, while acknowledging he had not discussed the matter with him. Meanwhile, China’s state-run Global Times rejected allegations linking Beijing to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s affair with a suspected Chinese spy; the newspaper accused US media of fabricating an espionage narrative and warned of damage to bilateral trade relations. Nvidia (NVDA), SK Telecom (017670 KS), Rebellions - Nvidia, Rebellions and SK Telecom announced a collaboration to develop South Korea’s sovereign AI infrastructure. Rebellions will integrate its R200 neural processors with Nvidia NVLink Fusion and MGX rack architecture; SK Telecom plans to deploy the systems in its AI data centre. TSMC (TSM) - Denied plans to enter memory chip production, and reaffirmed its focus on foundry operations, according to the Seoul Economic Daily. TSMC’s update follows recent reports of a request from Nvidia (NVDA) to manufacture 3D DRAM; The Information previously claimed TSMC was considering new or converted production facilities. Technical barriers, patent restrictions and potential competition with existing customers were cited as obstacles. Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), Lam Research (LRCX) - Samsung’s semiconductor etching process recipes were allegedly leaked repeatedly to Lam Research Korea beyond authorised data sharing limits, The Elec reports. Samsung reportedly discovered the breaches in H2 2026 and launched an investigation, treating the incidents as technology leaks. Lam Research Korea recently replaced its CEO, although any connection remains unconfirmed. Anthropic (ANT) - Pressing ahead with an IPO before US Thanksgiving, targeting USD 80-100bln in proceeds at a valuation of USD 1.25-1.75tln despite the AI-driven market sell-off, FT said. Investors anticipate a valuation around USD 1.5tln, below earlier USD 2tln expectations. Anthropic (ANT) - Secured commitments for 1.7 gigawatts of Caterpillar (CAT) gas-fired generators from OnePWR Solutions for USD 3.4bln, the FT reports. The deal includes installation capabilities but excludes acquiring OnePWR itself. The purchase gives Anthropic greater control over power supplies for AI data centres as it prepares for a potential IPO and substantial infrastructure investment. OpenAI - Secured USD 11bln in initial funding at a USD 1.25tln valuation, Bloomberg reports. The amount represents part of its original fundraising target of up to USD 30bln; the valuation is also below the USD 1.5tln initially sought. SoftBank (SFTBY) and MGX participated in the financing, the report adds. CoreWeave (CRWV) - CEO Michael Intrator urged Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa to cooperate on existing and future data centre developments, according to a letter. CoreWeave said it supports responsible development standards and seeks clarity on completing permitted projects. Hinojosa has pledged a statewide moratorium on data centre construction and tighter regulations, while emphasising that business investment must benefit Texans. In other news, CoreWeave announces multi-year agreement with Wayve, "the global leader in embodied intelligence building the AI Driver for autonomous vehicles." DeepSeek - DeepSeek Harness reached 1.54mln daily active users, consuming approximately 92tln tokens daily as of 4th November. Its ecosystem includes around 35K third-party plugins, with 60% of active users having built or installed one. DeepSeek plans an official plugin marketplace, improved API security and a developer support programme offering token grants and technical assistance. ARM Holdings (ARM) - Global server shipments are forecast to reach 4.89mln units in Q4 2026, rising 5.5% Q/Q and marking the year’s strongest quarterly growth, according to DigiTimes Intelligence. Arm-based servers are expected to lead growth despite concerns over AI demand, while Nvidia’s (NVDA) Vera Rubin platform faces supply constraints. SMEE - Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment showcased domestically developed lithography systems for front-end wafer fabrication and advanced packaging, DigiTimes reports. The company claims 90% local sourcing in its chipmaking equipment, highlighting progress in China’s semiconductor equipment localisation efforts. IBM (IBM), Atos (AEXAY), Leonardo (FINMY) - EU agency EU-LISA sued IBM, Atos and Leonardo in Estonia over repeated delays developing the Entry/Exit System, the FT reports. Filed in December 2025, the lawsuit follows missed deadlines, disputed penalties and rising costs, with the contract value increasing to EUR 212mln (prev. 142mln). The European Commission said the proceedings do not concern current system operations. Adobe (ADBE) - Signs a multi-year partnership with Disney (DIS). COMMUNICATIONS: Alphabet (GOOG) - Google confirms introduction of the TPU 8i Max and TPU 8TX; expanding eighth-generation TPU portfolio, in a bid to challenge Nvidia (NVDA). Meta Platforms (META) - Preparing to launch its Muse AI assistant in the UK, The Times reports. CEO Zuckerberg is targeting billions of users for the AI agent, which can shop online, complete forms and book appointments. In other news, Meta expands AI age-detection for teens globally on Instagram. SiriusXM (SIRI) - Plans to appoint Tubi CEO/existing board member Anjali Sud as its next CEO, replacing Jennifer Witz when her contract expires at year-end, Bloomberg reports. Sud, previously CEO of Vimeo, would take over as SiriusXM faces stagnant subscriber growth. Alphabet (GOOG) - NHTSA has opened a recall query into 2,895 Waymo vehicles over continued traffic safety violations involving failures to stop when encountering school buses. FINANCIALS: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) Q3 2026 (USD): Operating earnings 12.705bln (vs 13.485bln Y/Y), -5.8% Y/Y, primarily reflecting weaker insurance performance; Q3 net earnings fell 28% Y/Y to 22.112bln (vs 30.796bln Y/Y), as investment gains fell nearly 50% to USD 9.407bln. Revenue 105.65bln, +11% Y/Y. Insurance underwriting earnings 1.352bln, -43% Y/Y, while insurance investment income -14% Y/Y to USD 2.734bln. Railroad, energy and manufacturing businesses recorded earnings growth, with BNSF profit +19.3% Y/Y and Berkshire Hathaway Energy earnings +8.3% Y/Y to USD 1.6bln. Co. accelerated share buybacks to USD 9.6bln in Q3 (vs 4.5bln in Q2), bringing total repurchases to approximately USD 14.4bln YTD. Cash holdings increased to USD 377.435bln at the end of September (vs 365.514bln in Q2). Elsewhere, Berkshire has mandated banks for a potential benchmark JPY-denominated bond offering, its first since April; the issuance is expected shortly, subject to market conditions, and would mark its second yen bond sale since Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO. Berkshire raised JPY 272.3bln across six tranches in April. Blackstone (BX) - Nearly a third of Blackstone’s senior real-estate managing directors have departed over three years as weaker fund returns reduced carried interest payouts, WSJ reports. Departures include global head Nadeem Meghji and Kathleen McCarthy Baldwin. UniCredit (UNCRY) Q3 2026 (EUR): Net profit 3.26bln (exp. 2.78bln), +24% Y/Y, Revenue 6.90bln (exp. 6.47bln), +12% Y/Y. CET1 ratio 15.0% (exp. 14.8%), NII 3.83bln (exp. 3.73bln), Net fees and insurance result 2.39bln (exp. 2.32bln), Trading income 293mln (exp. 96mln), Pretax profit 4.26bln (exp. 3.85bln), Operating costs 2.26bln (exp. 2.30bln). Raises planned interim dividend to EUR 4.5bln. Expects earnings and dividends to grow by 15% annually through 2028. Guidance: Raises FY26 net profit to well above 11.5bln (prev. well above 11bln), while confirming FY28 and FY30 net profit guidance. Expects remaining regulatory approvals for its Commerzbank (CRZBY) acquisition by late November, with control of close to 50% of voting rights and new governance arrangements anticipated in Q1 2027. Credit Agricole (CRARY), Banco BPM (BNNCY) - Credit Agricole has proposed merging its Italian subsidiary with Banco BPM to create Italy’s third-largest bank. Its stake would rise to approximately 45% from 29.6%, with Banco BPM CEO Giuseppe Castagna leading the group. The proposal includes a 20% valuation premium and EUR 1bln extraordinary dividend, with completion targeted for H2 2027. Hannover Re (HVRRY) - Q3 net profit rose to EUR 694.7mln (exp. 638mln; prev. 650.8mln); reiterated its FY guidance, supported by large losses remaining below budgeted expectations. Coinbase (COIN) - Has received final approval from US authorities for a national trust bank charter, Bloomberg reports citing sources. The licence will support expansion of its crypto custody and payments businesses. KKR (KKR) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.78 (exp. 1.59), Revenue 4.56bln (exp. 2.66bln). Other quarterly metrics: AUM 804bln (exp. 817.02bln), Fee-related earnings 1.32bln (exp. 1.24bln), Organic new capital raised 25bln, Gross return on leveraged credit composite 1%, alternative credit composite 3%. Dividend USD 0.195/shr. Other: Expects to return more than USD 40bln to clients in 2026. On 6th November, approved a USD 500mln increase to its share repurchase programme. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: Lululemon (LULU) - Appointed Ben Hallam as Chief Brand Officer, effective 9th November, and Emily Sunderland as Chief Strategy Officer, effective 23rd November. China Car Exports - China’s Passenger Car Association forecasts export growth slowing to 10% in 2027, following a 75% surge in the first 10 months of 2026. Higher tariffs and import quotas in overseas markets are expected to constrain growth, although Middle Eastern demand remains strong. Domestic passenger-car sales fell 27% Y/Y in October to 1.64mln units. Tesla (TSLA) - CEO Musk said that Cybertruck orders significantly exceed production capacity, but its production line will close in approximately eight months to prioritise Cybercab manufacturing, adding that many customer deposits will be refunded. The decision reflects the higher value of additional Cybercab production relative to Cybertruck’s manufacturing complexity, rather than Cybertruck being unprofitable, Musk added. UK EVs - UK ministers are expected to reduce the 2030 electric vehicle sales target from 80% to approximately 60%, extending compliance flexibilities until 2034, The Guardian reports. No decision has yet been taken. Ford (F) - NHTSA has opened a prelim investigation into c. 1.24mln Ford vehicles; follows reports that seat-mounted side airbag deployments can cause severe burns. EVgo (EVGO) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS -0.14 (exp. -0.20), Revenue 91.42mln (exp. 94.62mln). Guidance: FY26 revenue 375-400mln (exp. 407.3mln). ENERGY: US Energy Infrastructure - President Trump endorsed bipartisan legislation to accelerate federal approvals for energy and infrastructure projects ahead of a Senate procedural vote, Bloomberg reports. The bill would streamline permitting for pipelines, mines, power plants and electricity grids. Despite support from oil and renewable energy developers, it faces opposition from House Democrats and environmental groups, complicating prospects for passage. Saudi Aramco - Saudi Aramco’s offices in Riyadh’s financial district sustained minor damage during a Houthi missile attack, with no casualties reported. Saudi forces retaliated by destroying two missile launchers. The attack prolonged remote-working arrangements in the financial district, and raised concerns over business disruption and foreign investment amid escalating regional tensions, Bloomberg said. MATERIALS: European Rare Earths - The EU is expanding rare earth mining, processing and refining to reduce dependence on China, Bloomberg reports. China currently controls around 90% of global refining. European strategic projects involving Sweden’s LKAB, Norway’s REEtec and other developers require over EUR 43bln in investment, the article adds. JSR, Mitsui Chemicals (MITUY) - Mitsui Chemicals agreed to acquire semiconductor materials maker JSR from JIC Capital alongside the Development Bank of Japan in a JPY 1.392tln deal, WSJ reports. Mitsui will hold all voting rights, while the bank will receive non-voting preferred shares. Mitsui plans a JPY 1.640tln bridge loan and is considering JPY 300bln in equity-related financing. Barrick (B) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.82 (exp. 0.74), Revenue 5.07bln (exp. 5.08bln). FY production guidance maintained. Productivity improvements mitigated cost pressures from fuel, consumables, and local currency appreciation. INDUSTRIALS: SpaceX (SPCX) - CEO Musk expects the company’s annual recurring revenue to exceed USD 500bln by December 2027, DigiTimes reports. Musk said an annualised revenue run rate of USD 1tln is also possible, although he assigned that outcome a probability of approximately 2%. Elsewhere, Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX are advancing their joint Terafab semiconductor project, targeting production volumes reportedly 40 times those of Rapidus, Nikkei reports; a procurement team made a confidential visit to Japan, presenting equipment order plans to Japanese manufacturers as it seeks to accelerate factory operations. Suppliers welcomed the potential business but expressed concerns over unusually demanding requirements. ABB (ABBNY), SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank and ABB are exploring carving out ABB Robotics’ Chinese operations after Beijing blocked their USD 5.4bln acquisition deal, Bloomberg reports. The proposed separation would address Chinese concerns over data and technology transfers, although negotiations may fail. ABB is also considering alternative buyers, potentially valuing the business at USD 2-3bln, or reviving its original spin-off plan. CNH Industrial NV (CNH) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.16 (exp. 0.10), Revenue 4.4bln (exp. 4.52bln). Guidance: FY adj. EPS 0.44-0.48 (exp. 0.45). Raises FY26 industrial FCF to 300-450mln (prev. 200-400mln) citing net IEEPA tariff refund impacts after reinvestments. Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 3.08 (exp. 3.31), Adj. EBITDA 1.028bln (exp. 986mln). HEALTHCARE: Novartis (NVS) - Will discontinue development of pelacarsen for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease after a trial involving 8,322 patients showed no reduction in heart attacks or strokes despite lowering Lp(a). A separate trial in calcific aortic valve stenosis will continue. Treatment discontinuation due to adverse events reached 21%, versus 7.5% on placebo. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Phase 3 ICOTYDE trial met its primary endpoint in biologic-naive psoriatic arthritis, with 58% achieving ACR20 response versus 41% on placebo at Week 16; no new safety signals emerged. Separately, Phase 2 nipocalimab findings in Sjogren’s disease identified mouth dryness as the main patient concern, cited by 96% surveyed. Elsewhere, Phase 1 pasritamig/JNJ-9401 combination achieved PSA reductions of at least 50% in 73% of patients with advanced prostate cancer at the recommended regimen. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Presented 56-week Phase 3 SCOUT-HCM data for Camzyos in adolescents with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Results were consistent with 28-week findings, showing a mean 48.1mmHg reduction in left ventricular outflow tract gradient among patients receiving continuous treatment. AbbVie (ABBV) - AbbVie’s Allergan Aesthetics reported Phase 4 Harmony In Diversity and HALO study results in adults using GLP-1 medications. Harmony In Diversity demonstrated statistically significant improvements in facial appearance satisfaction, skin quality and psychosocial function following combined injectable, neurotoxin and skincare treatment. HALO interim findings showed high patient satisfaction following hyaluronic acid injectable treatment. Regeneron (REGN) - Reported first-in-human CIDEBsiRNA trial results showing 58-80% liver fat reductions at Week 36 in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, versus 2.9% with placebo. UCB (UCBJY), Biogen (BIIB) - The two Cos. announced additional clinical data further characterising the profile of dapirolizumab pegol. Argenx (ARGX) - Will acquire the remaining shares of Unnatural Products, in which it already holds a minority stake, in a transaction valuing it at up to c. USD 1.15bln. Elsewhere, Argenx said Phase 3 ALKIVIA met primary and key secondary endpoints, with VYVGART Hytrulo delivering a 14.8-point TIS improvement versus placebo and improved muscle strength. Sandoz (SDZNY) - Launched a new semaglutide treatment option in Brazil, expanding patient access to GLP-1 medicines in a key global market. UTILITIES: Constellation Energy (CEG) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 5.06 (exp. 3.90), Revenue 9.55bln (exp. 9.23bln). Guidance: Raises FY26 EPS to 12.50-12.80 (exp. 12.20, prev. 11.50-12.50). NRG Energy (NRG) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.68 (exp. 3.33); 2027 base capital allocation includes 8% increase in annual common dividend to USD 2.05/shr. Plans to return USD 1bln to shareholders through share repurchases and USD 407mln through common stock dividends in 2026. In other news, announced it entered into a definitive agreement to sell six natural gas generation assets to LS Power, for USD 4bln in cash. CONSUMER STAPLES: Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - Recorded about USD 99mln of tariff refunds received as a benefit to gross profit in Q3, according to an SEC filing. GEOPOLITICS/POLITICS: US-Iran - Axios reports that US President Trump is to meet with the Qatari PM today at 12:00EST/17:00GMT, with talks focused on efforts to reach a new ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations with Iran. Over the weekend, Trump told CNN that further US strikes on Iran were highly unlikely if nuclear negotiations and talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz progressed. Trump reiterated the US naval blockade remains in force. Secretary of State Rubio said talks had been unproductive due to unacceptable Iranian demands, although Washington would continue exploring diplomatic options. Hegseth - House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries backed impeachment proceedings against US War Secretary Hegseth over his handling of the Iran war. Democrats will discuss a resolution on Tuesday. Republican Thomas Massie plans to reintroduce impeachment articles. President Trump has defended Hegseth, and ruled out replacing him, despite growing bipartisan criticism. US Defence Budget - Democrats, who now hold majorities in both chambers of Congress, are expected to block President Trump’s USD 1.5tln defence budget request following their midterm election victories. Republican Leadership Elections - Several Senate Republicans are seeking to postpone leadership elections scheduled for 10th November following the party’s midterm defeat. Senators Rick Scott and Ron Johnson support discussions on delaying the vote to reassess Republican strategy. Johnson says he has sufficient signatures to convene a conference meeting. John Thune currently faces no opposition for Senate Minority Leader. TRADE: US-China - China extended its suspension of additional 24% tariffs on US imports until 10th January 2027, while retaining the existing 10% levy. Beijing also prolonged its suspension of special port fees on US vessels. China warned it may adjust countermeasures if Washington replaces emergency tariffs with Section 301 duties. Separately, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer urged Chinese Vice Premier He to immediately honour agricultural purchase commitments. China previously agreed to buy 25mln tonnes of US soybeans annually for three years, while the White House outlined an additional USD 17bln in annual agricultural purchases through 2028. Further buying remains uncertain ahead of potential Trump-Xi talks. UK-EU - The EU and UK are close to an agreement linking their emissions trading systems, with an announcement expected at a summit later this month, Bloomberg reports. The deal would enable cross-border carbon permit trading, improve market liquidity and reduce companies’ carbon border tax costs. Negotiators have resolved emissions caps, supply controls and free allowances, leaving financial derivatives as the outstanding issue. MACRO: China Inflation - China’s October CPI slowed to 0.7% (exp. 0.8%; prev. 0.9%), driven by cooling food prices, which fell 2.9% Y/Y; core CPI eased to 0.8% (exp. 0.9%). PPI accelerated to 5.7% Y/Y (exp. 5.3%; prev. 5.0%), its fastest since June 2022. Higher energy and AI-related costs drove producer inflation, while weak domestic demand limited firms’ ability to pass on costs. ING said higher producer costs could eventually pass through to consumers, although inflation is expected to remain low but positive into 2027. PBoC - The PBoC added 25.8 metric tonnes of gold in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months. Purchases totalled approximately 129 tonnes in the first 10 months of 2026, with the PBoC the largest disclosed central bank buyer in Q3. Accumulation accelerated amid gold prices falling nearly 7% in October. JPY - Japan confirmed three days of JPY-buying intervention totalling JPY 15.4tln in late July and early August, a monthly record. Authorities reiterated their readiness to intervene. ECB - Eurozone finance ministers have begun assessing Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernandez de Cos as candidates to replace ECB President Christine Lagarde when her term expires in February. Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said officials aim to conclude the selection by year-end. Belgian FinMin Van Peteghem expects limited discussion at Monday’s Eurogroup meetings. European leaders will also hold talks at an informal summit in Dublin on 13th November, followed by a Brussels meeting on 26-27th November. ECB - ECB presidential contender Klaas Knot said he would deploy bond purchases and potentially develop new tools to counter disorderly sovereign-debt markets, according to an interview with the FT. He sees no current need for intervention, stressing that rising borrowing costs alone are insufficient. Knot envisages limited further tightening if energy prices remain stable. Germany Credit Rating - Morningstar DBRS affirmed Germany’s AAA long-term and R-1 (high) short-term sovereign ratings, with Stable trends. The agency cited strong institutions and debt affordability despite weak growth prospects and widening fiscal deficits. UK Jobs - The UK REC jobs data showed October permanent staff placements index at 46.6 (prev. 50.9), permanent staff availability index at 59.6 (prev. 57.2), and the permanent staff salaries index at 54.1 (prev. 53.4). UK employers reduced hiring in October for the first time in four months, while temporary placements fell for the first time since March. Vacancies continued declining amid pre-budget tax uncertainty and rising energy costs. Starting salary inflation increased slightly but remained below its long-run average, with demand stronger in skilled sectors. NZ Election - New Zealand’s governing right-leaning coalition holds a narrow lead and has 67 seats in the 131-seat parliament following Saturday’s election. However, approximately 400K special votes, including overseas ballots from New Zealanders living in Australia, remain uncounted and could change the outcome. Final results are expected on 27th November, leaving the next government uncertain. Analysts at Westpac expect a centre-right New Zealand government, potentially reliant on the Opportunity Party, although the uncounted special votes leave a centre-left outcome possible. The bank writes that weak parliamentary support could constrain fiscal consolidation or ambitious tax-and-spending plans. The RBNZ mandate would remain unchanged under the centre-right, but likely change under the centre-left. RBA - RBA Assistant Governor Hunter warned that AI investment will increase near-term inflation through stronger demand and construction costs. Longer-term productivity gains should ease these pressures, although estimates vary widely. Hunter noted limited employment impacts so far and warned that disappointing AI investment returns could trigger sharp repricing of equities and corporate debt. Brazil - Brazilian President Lula pledged fiscal responsibility while maintaining social programmes in his first televised address since winning a fourth term. He acknowledged concerns over rising public debt and high interest rates, committing to preserve existing fiscal rules while supporting sustainable social policies and expanding investment.