Newsquawk欧州市場まとめ - 2026年10月28日

Crude futures rose amid ongoing Middle Eastern tensions; stocks in Europe and the US were trading within narrow ranges. Gilts and GBP were little changed during the UK budget, although Gilts rose post-DMO announcement and pared back on the OBR. CAD was net flat post-BoC after the central bank hiked rates by 25bps as expected to 2.50%; NZD saw hefty losses after a surprise hold by the RBNZ. EQUITIES European bourses managed to claw back some of the earlier losses as focus turned to the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) as Chancellor Healey delivered the Budget. All-in-all, it came in as expected but there were some single stock movers. Gambling names (Entain +5.2%, Rank +10.1%) saw upside despite the hike in the Machine Games Duty to 25% from 20%; however, some expected a bigger hike to 40%. For banks, Healey confirmed earlier reports that banks will pay an extra 3% on the surcharge, bringing it to 6%, but this will be temporary (upside in the banking sector). For homebuilders, there was initial upside following the announcement of the Your First Home scheme, but it quickly reversed as it was broadly in line with expectations. Sectors ended mixed. Autos topped the sector pile, boosted by Stellantis (+14.5%) upside as it reaffirmed its FY guidance and is in a good position to beat savings targets next year. Utilities and Travel & Leisure rounded out the sector gainers. To the downside were Basic Resources, Media and Chemicals. Key movers include: UBS -1.3%, net income and IB pretax income missed expectations; Deutsche Bank +3.2%, net income and pretax profit beat consensus while FIC Sales & Trading revenue outperformed its US peers; Standard Chartered +2.9%, pretax profit beat and the bank lifted guidance; GSK -3.6%, vaccine sales slumped, which raised questions over the growth outlook. US cash equities opened mixed, with initial outperformance in the NDX, given the upside in SK Hynix (+9.8%), but currently sits around the unchanged. Focus now turns to the Fed policy announcement, in which a hold is expected, and earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet. FX DXY was little changed ahead of the FOMC announcement, with the Fed widely expected to hold rates at 3.75-4.00%, although markets anticipate a 25bps hike in December. The Buck remains supported by elevated energy prices and expectations of further tightening, while participants await Warsh's commentary for guidance on the December meeting. DXY traded within a 102.30-102.49 range (vs yesterday's 101.99-102.40 range). EUR/USD was flat ahead of tomorrow's ECB announcement, where policymakers are expected to hold rates at 2.50% despite elevated energy prices and inflation concerns. EUR/USD traded within a 1.1113-1.1139 range. GBP/USD was overall little changed following the UK Autumn Budget, with Chancellor Healey confirming a 3ppt increase in the bank tax surcharge, while the OBR raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 3.4% from 2.0% and lowered GDP growth expectations to 1.0%. The DMO also raised planned gilt issuance to GBP 250.6bln (exp. 249.6bln), although a reduction in long-dated issuance provided some support to gilts. GBP/USD traded within a 1.3273-1.3313 range. USD/JPY was modestly firmer ahead of Friday's BoJ announcement, with the pair reclaiming the 158.00 handle and approaching its 200 DMA at 158.52. USD/JPY traded within a 157.66-158.21 range. Antipodeans remained divergent, with NZD underperforming after the RBNZ unexpectedly held rates at 2.75% (exp. 3.00%) in a 4-3 split decision, although Governor Breman reiterated that further tightening would likely be required. Meanwhile, AUD was firmer after stronger-than-expected Australian inflation reinforced expectations of another RBA hike in November. CAD was net flat, with choppiness seen after the BoC hiked rates by 25bps as expected to 2.50%, while signalling that further tightening may be required. Governor Macklem noted that the inflation outlook had deteriorated while growth prospects had improved modestly, with the Bank also raising its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.0% from 0.7%. FIXED INCOME Fixed income benchmarks are set to end the European session mixed, with outperformance in Gilts, following the in-line Budget announcement from the Chancellor and the shift away from the long-end by the DMO. To recap, the Budget was as expected with no major surprises. This was seen as positive for the Gilt market, which was little moved following the announcement. The headroom is seen at GBP 15bln and is set to rise to GBP 22bln by 2030/31, Healey said. Most of the reaction came following the DMO remit, in which Gilts spiked from 85.20 to 85.36, as the DMO skewed issuance even further away from the long-end. However, some of the move pared on the full OBR release, given some of the caveats outlined. Away from the UK Budget, USTs await the FOMC policy announcement, in which a hold is expected. With no projections expected at this meeting, focus will be on the presser by Fed Chair Warsh, but given his distaste for forward guidance, any small hints will be welcomed by the market. In terms of price action, USTs were contained in a 105-25 to 106-03 range. UK DMO said gross gilt issuance planned for 2026/27 is GBP 250.6bln (exp. 249.6bln, prev. 246.2bln in April remit); Long-dated gilt auctions: 2.3bln (prev. 7.4bln, 5 auctions). Auctions. Short: 97.7bln (prev. 95.0bln, 20 auctions). Medium: 53.5bln (prev. 56.0bln, 15 auctions). Long: 2.3bln (prev. 7.4bln, 5 auctions). I/L: 15.6bln (prev. 16.0bln, 13 auctions). Syndication. Medium: 33.8bln (prev. 20.0bln, 2). Long: 12.5bln (prev. 15.0bln, 3). I/L: 7.8bln (prev. 7.0bln, 2). Green. To sell GBP 12bln of Green Gilts in 2026/27. Germany sold EUR 3.89bln (exp. 5.5bln) 2036 Bund: b/c 1.15x (prev. 1.16x), average yield 3.37% (prev. 3.58%), retention 29.3% (prev. 24.1%). COMMODITIES Crude futures are firmer amid ongoing Middle Eastern tensions, with reports that the US and Israel have prepared plans for renewed strikes on Iran following the midterms. On diplomacy, a senior Iranian official denied reports that Qatar had presented a new proposal to end hostilities, adding that Tehran's position on the nuclear issue remained unchanged. Meanwhile, Fars reported significant damage to Saudi Arabia's 550k BPD Ras Tanura refinery following a Yemeni strike, while further explosions were reported in Aden. Stateside, little action was seen following the weekly DoEs. WTI traded within a USD 99.75-102.62/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 99.44-102.82/bbl range), while Brent moved within USD 109.62-112.05/bbl (vs yesterday's USD 109.02-111.91/bbl range). Dutch TTF briefly topped EUR 100/MWh for the first time since December 2022 amid continued supply concerns heading into winter, trading within EUR 96.36-100.30/MWh. Spot gold is softer despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, with higher energy prices and firmer US yields weighing on the complex ahead of the FOMC announcement. Spot gold traded within a USD 4,028.19-4,070.77/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 3,989-4,066/oz range), while spot silver underperformed within USD 53.64-54.53/oz (vs yesterday's USD 52.66-54.55/oz range). Copper futures are subdued/little changed amid a relatively stable Dollar and cautious risk sentiment ahead of the Fed. Elsewhere, the LME reported technical disruptions affecting some downstream processing systems. COMEX copper traded within a USD 6.6210-6.6710/lb range. 3M LME traded in a narrow USD 14,423.00-14,510.73/t range. ADNOC reportedly informed some Asian refiners that it may begin delivering Upper Zakum crude via a new pipeline to the Fujairah terminal in early 2027, allowing shipments to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg. Russia authorises the departure of grain export vessels from ports in the Sea of Azov for the first time since July 10th, according to industry sources. Authorisations for vessels to pass through the Kerch Strait, linking the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, will be issued until November 15th. Russia and Azerbaijan are discussing natural gas swap supplies, reported Interfax. US White House said the oil agreement with Venezuela will deliver a total of 65bln barrels. Syria and Iraq discuss exporting Iraqi oil via the Baniyas pipeline. UAE’s Sharjah temporarily closes all its beaches as a precautionary measure after an oil spill, according to a statement. Equinor (EQNR NO) CFO said must be prepared for some demand destruction in Europe due to high gas prices; production from the Johan Sverdrup field is down 11% to date and it expects a larger decline next year. Share buybacks will be the flexible part of capital distribution. 2027 production will not match the extraordinary 2026 level but will be higher than 2025. Black Sea CPC oil exports to decline 2% M/M in November, sources report. Russian Deputy PM Novak said they are open to work with US partners on energy, but there are no current discussions around a return to specific projects. London Metal Exchange said it is experiencing technical disruptions in some downstream processing systems. "Although market trading proceeded normally, this has resulting in a large number of trades being recorded in those downstream systems with incorrect Prompt Dates, including at the front of the curve, which (without further action) could cause significant issues with the settlement process (the “Incident”).". The European Parliament’s environment committee will vote on reforms to the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on 1st December 2026. European Parliament MEP Liese said parliamentary groups remain sharply divided over carbon market reform. US Transportation Secretary Duffy is to announce approval of a license application for an USD 8.2bln deepwater LNG export port at Port Houston during a visit to Texas on Wednesday, Punchbowl reported. A drone strikes an oil pipeline in Sudan’s Red Sea State, causing damage and an oil leak, Al Hadath reported, citing its correspondent. DATA US EIA Weekly Crude Production (% Change) 5.45% (Prev. -3%) US EIA Weekly Crude Production Change bbl 723K (Prev. -410K) US EIA Weekly Crude Production 13.992M (Prev. 13.269M) US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (Oct/23) 0.164M (Prev. 0.652M) US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (Oct/23) -0.796M (Prev. 0.837M) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/23) -0.624M (Prev. 0.987M) US EIA Distillate Stocks Change (Oct/23) -1.462M vs. Exp. -0.9M (Prev. 1.675M) US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change (Oct/23) -0.071M (Prev. 0.043M) US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (Oct/23) -0.123M (Prev. 0.034M) US EIA Gasoline Production Change (Oct/23) -0.509M (Prev. 0.518M) US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct/23) 3.87M vs. Exp. -0.9M (Prev. -2.952M) US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/23) -1.892M vs. Exp. 0M (Prev. -3.061M); SPR falls 0.1mln to 282.6mln EUROPEAN DATA French Jobseekers Total (Sep) 3192.5K (Prev. 3081.7K). French Unemployment Benefit Claims (Sep) 110.8K (Prev. -61.3K). Italian PPI (Sep YY) 13.8% (Prev. 10.9%). Italian PPI (Sep MM) 2.9% (Prev. 2.4%). Italian Industrial Sales (Aug YY) 4.2% (Prev. 4.8%). Italian Industrial Sales (Aug MM) -0.90% (Prev. 1.70%). Swiss Economic Sentiment Index (Oct) -15.3 (Prev. 2.6). German GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov) -30.8 vs. Exp. -30.9 (Prev. -30.6). NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Chancellor Healey said budget will be based on fiscal discipline, will boost growth and maintain fiscal control. BUDGET: Said he has GBP 15bln headroom (exp. GBP 15bln; vs March forecast of 23.6bln); seen at GBP 22bln by 2030/31. Said he will meet fiscal budget rules in the third year of the forecast. Will use headroom to absorb some of the Middle East impact. Will be no slash to public services, or any broad-based tax hikes. (Full details on the Newsquawk feed). UK OBR forecasts GDP growth slowing from 1.25% in 2026 to 1.0% in 2027, while CPI inflation is expected to reach 3.4% in 2027 (vs prev. 2% seen in March). Borrowing could be GBP 17bln above its central forecast in 2027/28 if energy prices reach a higher and more sustained peak. Significantly better or worse outcomes for the public finances and economy are broadly equally likely. The rise in interest rates and increase in the inflation forecast leaves pre-measures borrowing an average of GBP 11bln per year higher than in March. 1ppt change in interest rates could increase or reduce government debt interest costs by GBP 16bln. Council housebuilding programme could cost GBP 3-4bln/yr, in addition. The ’Your First Home‘ scheme could marginally raise house prices by stimulating housing demand. If fuel duty freeze continued, then the headroom would be GBP 10.2bln. Performance vs the fiscal target (i.e. headroom/margin). GBP 14.5bln of headroom against surplus by 2029-30 (moved to the 3rd yr of the forecast); 56% chance of happening (prev. 59%). ex-fuel duty rises, GBP 10.2bln. "These margins against the fiscal targets are very small compared to the inherent risk and uncertainty around any medium-term fiscal forecast". "With the shorter horizon to the target year compared to last November, a smaller margin is required to have the same chance of meeting the rules. Despite this, the probability has decreased overall because the reduction in the margin more than offsets the effect of the shorter horizon.". UK Chancellor Healey announces new measure on housing; will provide additionally GBP 1.5bln for social and affordable housing programme. There will be a first time home buyer ISA, to replace lifetime ISA. Announces that for first home buyers, an equity loan scheme with funding of GBP 4.7bln of government-backed lending. UK Chancellor Healey said UK will bring down welfare bill, but it will be done in a 'Labour' style; will legislate next year. Will publish final report next month. Will set out our response before the end of the year. PM has already announced that from 2030, will adjust the triple lock, so that the state pension rises every year and keeps pace with earnings and inflation; reforms will save GBP 50bln by 2050. UK Chancellor Healey confirms defence investment plan will be fully-funded. That equates to GBP 4.7bln of funding. Will get defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, and 3.5% by 2035. 3% funding will be explained in next year's spending review. Is determined to use more innovative financing alongside the private sector and our international allies. Is launching today a new innovative defence finance task force. UK Chancellor Healey said he will introduce Founders' relief for startups, limiting CGT to 10% up to GBP 10mln. UK Chancellor Healey said UK will launch a data centre covenant, part of the UK AI strategy. Will reform skilled worker visas and non-compete rules to help startups. UK PM Burnham declines to rule out another Brexit referendum at PMQs. TRADE/TARIFFS China and the US Chamber of Commerce discuss cooperation in AI and new energy vehicles. China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met European Parliament trade committee chair Lange yesterday to discuss China-EU trade ties. Said themselves and the EU are important economic and trade partners; MOFCOM has pledged closer communication to support stable relations. Said China was not the root cause of EU problems. Urged reciprocal EU measures, and advocated expanded investment, EU imports and emerging-sector cooperation under WTO rules. CENTRAL BANKS BoC hiked rates by 25bps as expected to 2.5%; said there could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully. INFLATION. In the outlook, inflation is higher and more persistent than in the July Report. Near-term household and business inflation expectations have risen, while longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. CPI inflation is expected to average 3% in 2027, a percentage point above the July projection, then come down to 2% in the middle of 2028. The main sources of uncertainty around this forecast are developments in the Middle East and businesses’ responses to cost pressures. TARIFFS. Owing to new US tariffs, growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter of 2026, before picking up again in 2027. ECONOMY. The unemployment rate has been around 6.5% for several months. A broad set of indicators continue to point to some excess supply in the economy. The Canadian economy is expected to grow 1% in 2026, and 2% in 2027 and 2028. This is a somewhat stronger overall growth projection than the July Report. This forecast is still subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly regarding Canada-US trade relations. BoC MPR: Raises 2026 GDP forecast to 1.0% from 0.7%, 2027 and 2028 GDP raised to 2.0% from 1.8%. BoC Governor Macklem said there have been two important economic developments since our July Report; inflation outlook has deteriorated and growth outlook for Canada has improved modestly. Thai Interest Rate Decision 1.00% vs. Exp. 1% (Prev. 1.00%). GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Kremlin said European representatives will not participate in trilateral talks on Ukraine, according to Interfax. Ukrainian President Zelensky said negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the US could take place as early as November 10th. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Western powers could eventually discuss Russia's demands for security guarantees, but insists Ukraine's own security needs must be addressed first. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said Russia remains in the preparatory phase for negotiations on Ukraine, TASS reported. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine will not attack Russian ships carrying diesel for the US. No exact dates have been set for Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, with preparations still underway, TASS sources say. MIDDLE EAST Al-Mayadeen correspondent in Iran said Iranian officials believe that US President Trump wants to bring the nuclear issue into the negotiations, which Iran rejects. Satellite imagery indicates significant damage to the main refining unit at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura (550k BPD) refinery following a strike by Yemeni armed forces, leaving the unit inoperable, Fars reported. Israeli election results show Netanyahu's bloc with 53 seats, Eisenkot's bloc with 47 and Arab parties with 19, following the counting of all votes excluding double-envelope ballots, i24 reported. Pakistani and Omani Foreign Ministers discuss the latest regional developments in a telephone call, according to IRNA. Lebanese newspaper Al-Modon reported that Monday's meeting in Tehran involving the Saudi Defence Minister, Pakistan's Army Chief and Turkey's intelligence chief signals a clear warning to Iran that time is running out to reach an agreement, N12 reported. Washington has reportedly toughened its demands for Iran to hand over its highly enriched uranium to the US, halt military strikes and operations in the Strait of Hormuz and across the region, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic sources say Iran could avoid a planned US military strike in exchange for meeting Washington's demands. Explosions heard again in Aden, southern Yemen, Al Jazeera correspondent reported. UKMTO said it has received reports of suspicious activity potentially linked to piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Rosatom said they will raise the number of construction workers at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant to 200 in November, reported Al Mayadeen. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Spokesman said protocol for building small reactors with Russia is being finalized. Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman and deputy head of international, legal and parliamentary affairs at the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, announced the pursuit of joint cooperation with Russia for the construction of small and modular reactors, and said: A protocol is being signed with the Russian side to speed up the process of building these types of reactors. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iran will respond to any act of aggression in a way beyond imagination. Israeli Arabs reportedly see the potential for an Eisenkot minority government, according to reports. Yemeni Houthi military spokesperson called for the immediate evacuation of Yemen's Aden Airport. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi briefed the Cabinet on diplomatic developments and consultations with Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, emphasising regional cooperation, collective security and efforts to prevent further escalation, IRNA reported. Qatar has not presented a new proposal to end hostilities between Iran and the US, Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official; Tehran's policy of showing no flexibility over the nuclear issue remains unchanged. A ballistic missile reportedly lands at Yemen’s Aden Airport, Al Hadath reported, citing its correspondent. Iranian President Pezeshkian reiterates the government is working to move beyond a state of "neither war nor peace". Reports of a Yemeni attack targeting Saudi forces in Aden, Sabereen reported. US and Israel have reportedly prepared plans to resume joint attacks on Iran after the US midterm elections to avoid potential economic and electoral consequences, Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan reported, citing a Western diplomatic source. UKMTO reported a JMIC update on the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman & Arabian Sea. Neutral vessels, carrying neutral cargo or in ballast, between neutral ports in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz may be subject to questioning, visit, and search to confirm their intentions regarding the blockade. Due to the current geopolitical situation, vessels which do not need to transit the area are advised to remain well clear to avoid unnecessary delays to their voyage. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that the destructive consequences of any military adventurism provoked by Israel in the Persian Gulf region for international markets remain a serious concern for gas exporting and gas consuming countries. Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, with Iran considering the proposal and a response expected by the end of the week, Reuters reported citing sources; Several countries would act as guarantors of the deal. Draft deal set a seven-day timeline to address both sides’ concerns, requiring daily confidence-building steps from each side, with the timeline potentially beginning early next week. NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS Nevada Gaming Revenue casino gaming revenue (Sep) USD 1.28bln, flat Y/Y, with Las Vegas Strip revenue at USD 693.5mln, +0.8% Y/Y. US Senator Warren (D) reportedly raises concerns over risks disclosed in Anthropic's IPO filings and is demanding answers to a series of questions ahead of its planned listing, WSJ reported citing sources. Asks for answers by November 3rd. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US Wholesale Inventories Adv (Sep MM) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%). US Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (Sep MM) 0.4% (Prev. 0%). US Goods Trade Balance Advance (Sep) -134.90B vs. Exp. -130B (Prev. -132.07B). US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct/23) 7.37% (Prev. 7.41%). US MBA Mortgage Market Index (Oct/23) 195.0 (Prev. 188.6). US MBA Purchase Index (Oct/23) 134.1 (Prev. 129.2). US MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct/23) 3.4% (Prev. -5.3%). US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (Oct/23) 516.8 (Prev. 503.1). NOTABLE ASIA-PAC NEWS Japanese PM Takaichi said she has agreed with German Chancellor Merz to commence high-level AI dialogue.