Newsquawk米国市場総括－原油安と米イラン関係改善への期待を背景に、反発が続き株価上昇

SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up. REAR VIEW: A Qatari-Pakistani proposal reportedly revives the path of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran; Reports suggested Qatar will host Vance and Rezaei next week, but Tasnim later denied it; Mixed 3yr US auction; NY Fed SCE inflation expectations unchanged; Fed's Barkin said there is no base case for the December meeting; Investigation involving NVDA CEO Huang following reports of his admitted affair with an alleged Chinese spy; GOOG rolls out two new versions of TPU systems. COMING UP: Data: Australian NAB Business Confidence (Oct), Chinese Trade Balance (Oct), Norwegian Inflation (Oct), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct) Events: Riksbank Minutes; EIA STEO; BoC Minutes; BCB Minutes Speakers: Fed’s Waller, Schmid, Paulson; BoE’s Lombardelli, Pill; ECB's Lane, Cipollone Supply: Japan, Netherlands, UK, US Earnings: CoreWeave, Infineon, Porsche SE, TAG. MARKET WRAP Stocks closed firmly in the green on Monday as the post-midterm rout continued to unwind. Gains were broad-based, with all major US indices and S&P 500 sectors closing higher, particularly Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Communication Services. The rally came despite a 5% decline in Nvidia (NVDA) shares amid an investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang following reports of his admitted affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Sentiment was also supported by further optimism surrounding the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a major military campaign against Iran, while reports via Al Arabiya on Monday suggested the two sides were moving closer to an agreement. The report noted that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal had revived the prospect of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. In FX, the Dollar underperformed amid the risk-on trade, while the Antipodean currencies led gains, with the Kiwi particularly strong following the weekend's New Zealand election results. Gold prices also rallied, supported by the weaker Dollar. The Treasury yield curve flattened, with front-end yields rising while the long end was little changed. The move appeared largely driven by improved risk sentiment, given that yields rose despite the sharp decline in oil prices, although a sizeable 2-year T-note futures block trade may have contributed to the move. The USD 58bln 3-year Treasury auction was mixed and had little market impact, while US data also prompted little reaction, with the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showing inflation expectations unchanged across the one-, three- and five-year horizons. Attention now turns to Tuesday's US CPI report, which will be key in shaping Fed rate expectations ahead of the December meeting. US BARKIN (2027 voter): Said the main risk lies on the inflation side of the Fed's mandate, with resilient demand and broad-based cost increases pushing prices higher, while firms are looking to pass these costs on to consumers. He described the US economy as "remarkably stable", noting that businesses are performing well, earnings have been "remarkable", and bankers report healthy loan pipelines, with demand extending well beyond AI. On the labour market, Barkin described the latest jobs report as "healthy", with layoffs remaining muted and firms continuing to operate in a low-hire, low-fire environment. Although consumer sentiment remains "bleak", spending has continued, supported by labour market resilience. Regarding monetary policy, Barkin said the direction is "straightforward", although it is best to move "with care", noting that the current policy rate is likely around or slightly below neutral. However, he has no base case for the December meeting and suggested that having two full months of economic data between meetings would improve communication. On the recent elections, Barkin said their economic impact remains difficult to gauge, although he does not expect newly approved ballot measures to impede data center expansion, as firms will find alternative locations to build. FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 1+ TICKS LOWER AT 107-02 Yield curve flattens as yields rise amid continued equity market rebound. At settlement, 2-year +4.1bps at 4.553%, 3-year +2.4bps at 4.606%, 5-year +1.9bps at 4.664%, 7-year +1.3bps at 4.752%, 10-year +0.7bps at 4.866%, 20-year -0.7bps at 5.287%, 30-year -0.2bps at 5.261%. THE DAY: The Treasury yield curve flattened on Monday, with front-end yields rising while the long end was little changed at settlement. The move appeared largely driven by risk sentiment, with US equities extending Friday's rebound and reducing haven demand for Treasuries. Nonetheless, some concerns remained amid pressure in Nvidia (NVDA) shares following reports concerning CEO Jensen Huang and an alleged relationship with a Chinese spy. Meanwhile, the rise in front-end yields coincided with a sizeable two-year Treasury futures block trade at 09:03 ET, which saw 26k contracts traded at 102-12+. CME does not disclose whether the trade was buyer- or seller-initiated, although Treasury futures came under pressure following the transaction. There was also a notable shift in Fed pricing, with money markets now pricing 39bps of hikes by March next year, up from 34bps on Friday. The equity rout following the midterms had prompted a dovish repricing of Fed expectations amid concerns over the growth outlook, but the rebound in AI-related stocks has helped revive optimism surrounding AI-driven economic growth, supporting a renewed hawkish shift in Fed pricing. Yields rose despite a notable decline in oil prices, extending the recent pullback in energy prices. Over the weekend, US President Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a full-scale war or major military strikes against Iran. Yields came off highs ahead of settlement after Al Arabiya reported that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran, weighing on crude prices even further. US data had little impact. September wholesale inventories were revised higher to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the October Employment Trends Index rose to 108.36 from 107.56. Meanwhile, the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation expectations unchanged across the one-, three- and five-year horizons at 3.9%, 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Fed commentary saw Barkin state that he has no base case for the December meeting, noting that the policy path is straightforward but that it is best to adjust policy carefully. The USD 58bln 3-year Treasury auction had little market impact, although the results were mixed, leaning soft. The offering tailed by 0.5bps, while the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53x was below the six-auction average of 2.64x, suggesting somewhat lacklustre demand. However, direct participation rose to 35.0%, well above the 25.2% average, helping keep dealer allocation below average at 9.5%. Attention now turns to Tuesday's US CPI report, which will be key in shaping Fed rate expectations ahead of the December 9th meeting. This will be the final CPI report before the decision, with November CPI not due until the following day. However, policymakers will still receive October PPI and PCE data, alongside the November jobs report, before the meeting. Supply Notes/Bonds US to sell USD 42bln of 10-year notes on November 10th and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on November 12th. US sold USD 58bln of 3-year notes; Tail 0.5bps. Bills US sold 3-month bills at high rate of 4.060%, B/C 2.67x; sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 4.145%, B/C 2.92x US sold 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.990%, B/C 2.59x STIRS / OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 21.1bps (prev. 19.2bps), Mar 39.1bps (prev. 33.9bps). EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 105bln (prev. USD 111bln) on November 6th SOFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.92%), volumes at USD 3.174tln (prev. USD 3.256tln) on November 6th NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.25bln (prev. 0.15bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 1) on November 9th NY Fed T-Bill Purchases (1-4 month): Accepts USD 3.65bln of USD 33.49bln offered; Offer-to-cover 9.17x CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 3.98 LOWER AT 86.85/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 5.75 LOWER AT 92.57/BBL The crude complex was lower as the mood between the US and Iran turned more constructive, with a peace proposal appearing closer than before. Oil prices fell on the resumption of trade after US President Trump told CNN over the weekend that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, US Secretary of State Rubio said talks with Iran have been unproductive, as Tehran’s demands are unacceptable. Energy saw further weakness on a couple of other bearish reports: 1) Iran reportedly dropped a demand to control the Strait of Hormuz and collect transit fees, and 2) Al Hadath reported that the Iraqi PM presented proposals to end the Iran war during a phone call with Trump. There was some pushback, though, after a Qatari official said reports of the details of a US-Iran proposal are false and that talks are ongoing. In a further positive development, Mehr News said Qatar will host US VP Vance and Iran’s Rezaei next week. Direct involvement from Vance would be a significant step, and it helped ease geopolitical uncertainty. However, in keeping with the mixed reporting, Tasnim said Rezaei’s plan to meet Vance in Doha has been denied. Separately, Trump met the Qatari PM for around 45 minutes, with talks focused on the negotiations with Iran. Note that WTI settled around lows, but has since tumbled much further after Al Arabiya reported that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path to serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Brent settled after the reports - hence the disparity in settlement prices. The report noted that arrangements are underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, without specifying the scope of their mission. Washington has reportedly allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at a level of 3.67%, and Tehran has agreed. The US will release Iranian assets worth between USD 6-9bln if an agreement is reached, and the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and the naval blockade lifted immediately. A preliminary agreement on reducing Iranian uranium enrichment is likely, while discussions are underway regarding the involvement of a third country to facilitate the reduction of highly enriched uranium levels in Iran. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX +2.35% at 7,550, NDX +3.40% at 27,908, DJI +2.15% at 52,390, RUT +3.16% at 2,841. SECTORS: Industrials +3.78%, Consumer Discretionary +3.05%, Technology +2.87%, Materials +2.15%, Communication Services +2.12%, Health +1.94%, Real Estate +1.59%, Utilities +1.54%, Financials +1.42%, Consumer Staples +0.64%, Energy +0.41%. EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +1.72% at 26,266, FTSE 100 +1.02% at 10,783, CAC 40 +1.16% at 8,233, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.06% at 6,298, AEX +0.84% at 1,130, IBEX 35 +1.93% at 19,743, FTSE MIB +2.69% at 51,400, SMI +1.01% at 14,946, PSI +0.82% at 9,555. STOCK SPECIFICS: Nvidia (NVDA): Launches investigation into CEO Huang's affair w/ 'Chinese spy'. Alphabet (GOOG): Google rolling out 2 new versions of TPU systems to challenge Nvidia Constellation Energy (CEG): EPS & rev. topped alongside raising FY profit view NRG Energy (NRG): Bottom line surpassed exp. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): Q3 earnings fall, accelerates buyback AMD (AMD): Upgraded at Oppenheimer. UnitedHealth (UNH) made an unsolicited bid to buy Surgery Partners (SGRY) at USD 28/shr, according to Bloomberg citing sources, which the Co. rejected over concerns about the complexity of the deal and that it might not close. Disney+ (DIS) to stream the Super Bowl live in the US for the first time, according to Business Insider citing sources. PepsiCo (PEP) is eliminating roughly 1,000 jobs across its food and beverage division as it attempts to turn the company around, reports WSJ. FX The Dollar Index saw notable losses on Monday, weighed on by the more constructive geopolitical backdrop and cooling energy prices amid increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. The latest report, which sparked a significant risk-on reaction, came from Al Arabiya, which, citing sources, said a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path to serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The report added that arrangements are underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, and that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%, which Tehran has agreed to. It also said the US will release Iranian assets worth between USD 6-9bln if an agreement is reached, while the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and the naval blockade lifted immediately. Participants now await confirmation of these reports or any further details. Away from geopolitics, there was no tier-1 data on Monday, with US CPI due on Tuesday. The NY Fed SCE showed inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons: 1yr at 3.9%, 3yr at 3.3% and 5yr at 3.0%. G10 FX gained across the board against the Greenback on the broad Dollar weakness. The Antipodeans outperformed, buoyed by risk sentiment, with the Kiwi also supported by the New Zealand general election. The centre-right bloc is narrowly ahead but may need support from the Opportunity Party, which is likely to sit outside government in exchange for policy concessions. A centre-right victory is widely viewed as pro-business and would allow the RBNZ to keep its existing mandate. Some on the left have called for the Bank to reinstate a dual mandate, focusing equally on inflation and employment, which is regarded as dovish for NZD. Elsewhere, although it did not move the Pound, BoE Governor Bailey said the Bank is seeing growing signs of the beginnings of a positive supply shock from AI and the investment it requires. Finally, USD/CNH saw choppy price action after Chinese CPI came in cooler than expected while PPI was hotter than expected.