プレビュー - 米国の10月雇用統計は2026年11月6日13:30 GMT／08:30 ESTに発表予定

SUMMARY: The US economy is expected to add 63k nonfarm payrolls in October, up from 29k in September and above the 12-month average of 41k. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%, although the Chicago Fed’s final estimate points to a modest decline from September's unemployment rate. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.1%), although the annual rate is expected to ease to 2.9% from 3.0%, which would be its first sub-3% reading since May 2021. Labour market proxies have been largely positive: initial and continuing claims both fell between the survey windows, ADP’s private payrolls beat expectations and Challenger reported the lowest October job cut total since 2023. Challenger’s data also showed hiring plans picking up, albeit driven by seasonal roles, while Revelio’s data pointed to a slowdown in job growth. Business surveys were mixed but consistent with expansion: ISM manufacturing employment slipped but remained in expansionary territory, while ISM services employment rose further into expansion. Consumer confidence data showed the labour market differential widening, with expectations for jobs six-months ahead becoming less pessimistic. In terms of Fed policy, the October statement and Chair Warsh’s comments after the confab suggested rates would rise at a measured pace, with money markets pricing an approximately 83% chance of a 25bps FOMC rate rise in December. Analysts suggest that if the October jobs data is consistent with consensus expectations, it will allow the Fed to remain focused on inflation. EXPECTATIONS: The consensus looks for the US economy to add 63k nonfarm payrolls in October (vs 29k in September); that compares to the three-month average rate of 51k, six-month average rate of 66k, and the 12-month average rate of 41k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%; however, the Chicago Fed’s final labour market indicators for October project the jobless rate at 4.14%, ticking down slightly vs the BLS value for the previous month at 4.18%; it said that the improvement was a result of an increase in hiring and a decrease in layoffs. Average hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.1%), with the annual rate easing to 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 3.0%), taking the annual rate below 3% for the first time since May 2021. FED POLICY: Oxford Economics expects the October jobs report to show a labour market that remains balanced between modest job growth and slow labour force growth, allowing the Fed to stay focused on inflation and raise rates in December. It forecasts payroll growth of 40k, below the 63k consensus but above its estimated break-even pace, which is trending towards 25k. OxEco argues that wages are not contributing to sticky inflation, with price pressures instead stemming from the pass-through of higher energy costs and the AI buildout. It therefore suggests that subdued wage growth may offer the Fed some comfort, but would not alter its course. Following the October confab, the statement and Chair Warsh’s comments suggested that rates would rise at a measured pace; money markets are currently pricing an approximately 83% chance that rates will be lifted by 25bps in December to 4.00-4.25%. JOLTS: The JOLTS data for September were strong, showing US job openings rising by 333K to 7.523mln (exp. 7.1mln), while August was revised up to 7.19mln (from an initially reported 7.079mln). The job openings rate increased to 4.5% (from 4.3%), and there were 1.06 vacancies for every unemployed person (up from 1.02). Hires rose by 131K to 5.402mln, lifting the hiring rate to 3.4% (from 3.3%). Layoffs fell by 127K to 1.641mln, the lowest since March 2025, taking the layoffs rate to 1.0% (from 1.1%). Quits were up by 321K (to 3.365mln), the largest rise since May 2023, resulting in the Quits Rate climbing to 2.1% (from 1.9%). JOBLESS CLAIMS/ADP/REVELIO: In the reference week that coincides with the BLS survey window, weekly initial jobless claims have remained low at 195K (vs 198K into the September report), with continuing claims inching lower to 1.701mln (vs 1.712mln in the September window). US ADP private payrolls rose by 86K in October, above the 69K expected, while the prior reading was revised down to 86K (from 90K). Annual pay growth held at 4.4% for job stayers, and rose to 7.6% (from 7.3%) for job changers, the most since 2024, although base pay growth was little changed from September. ADP’s Chief Economist said employers of all sizes were hiring and that job changers were attracted by bonuses, overtime and more hours, as well as higher base pay. Pantheon Macroeconomics provided its usual warnings, noting that the ADP data is usually a poor guide to any single month’s official print, with an average absolute gap of 77K to the first private payrolls estimate since August 2022; still, the consultancy said the data marginally increases its confidence in its 100K forecast. Elsewhere, Revelio’s public labour statistics showed that the economy added 26K jobs in October 2026 (vs a revised 67.6K in September), driven by job gains in the Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, and Public Administration sectors. JOB CUTS: Challenger’s monthly data revealed that employers announced 43,994 job cuts in October, up 2% from September, but down 71% Y/Y, and the lowest October total since 2023. Its data showed YTD job cuts were down 44% Y/Y to 617,189. Food companies led the cuts with 9,677; market/economic conditions was the most cited reason, accounting for 37% of the total. AI was cited for 1,265 of the cuts, its lowest monthly total this year. On the hiring side, employers announced plans to hire 444,692 workers, up 57% Y/Y, the highest October total since at least 2009, though the figure was dominated by seasonal roles, with Amazon planning 300K hires (vs 250k in 2025) and UPS planning 100K (UPS didn’t provide a number in 2025, but hired 125K seasonal workers in 2024); Challenger described it as a “low-fire environment”, with employers retaining staff but favouring short-term, seasonal hiring over permanent headcount. BUSINESS SURVEYS: The ISM manufacturing employment sub-index fell 0.3 points in October to 52.4, remaining in expansion for a fourth consecutive month and above the 50.3 level that ISM says is generally consistent with growth in BLS manufacturing employment over time. Employment was the only one of the five components of the Manufacturing PMI to grow more slowly than in September. ISM noted that the ratio of comments on hiring to those on managing or reducing headcounts was 1.8-to-1 in the month. Meanwhile, the ISM services employment sub-index rose 1.3 points in October to 51.4, remaining in expansion for a second consecutive month and sitting 2.1 points above its 12-month average of 49.3. The share of respondents reporting higher employment edged up to 16.6% from 16.5%, while the share reporting lower employment fell to 13.5% from 16.2%. Hiring breadth was mixed, however, with six industries reporting an increase in employment, led by Transportation & Warehousing and Retail Trade, and seven reporting a decrease, led by Management of Companies & Support Services and Health Care & Social Assistance. Respondents’ comments included “increasing employment to support business growth and new contract awards” and “less people, more work equals frustration”. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence showed views of the labour market improving in October. The share saying jobs were “plentiful” rose to 26.7 (from 24.3), while those saying jobs were “hard to get” were unchanged at 21.4; that widened the labour market differential by 2.4 points to +5.3. Meanwhile, the outlook became slightly less pessimistic: 26.3 expected fewer jobs over the next six months (vs 27.6 previously), while 15.2 expected more (vs prev. 14.7); net expectations rose 1.8 points to -11.1. Regarding pay metrics, consumers still expect household incomes to rise ahead, and to a greater extent, with net expectations up 3.5 points to +6.7.