Newsquawk デイリー・アジア太平洋オープニングニュース - 2026年11月12日

US stocks closed in the green on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq outperforming as technology stocks extended their recovery amid the ongoing AI rebound. Sentiment was supported by strong earnings from CoreWeave (CRWV) after-hours Tuesday, with shares rallying 24.5%, reversing some of the recent weakness and helping ease concerns surrounding the sector. The report also boosted other neocloud names, with attention turning to Nebius (NBIS) earnings on Thursday for further insight into the sector. Given the rebound in neocloud names easing some data centre concerns, hyperscalers have seen some pressure, with META, MSFT, and AMZN all closing lower, as it may reduce the demand for them to pick up some of the excess slack. USD continued to move higher following Tuesday’s hawkish Fed repricing, in the wake of Waller’s remarks and the hotter-than-expected CPI report. Along the same lines, Paulson (2026 voter) said overnight that the Fed will move more aggressively if the inflation landscape worsens, but reiterated the party line that further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation, and that the exact path of policy depends on how the economy evolves. Newsflow was otherwise very thin, with no Fed speak or data due to Veterans Day. On geopolitics, Ukraine-Russia rhetoric was more constructive, albeit with no significant breakthrough, while Iran’s Rezaei struck a punchier tone than in recent talks. Looking to Thursday, there is plenty of Fed speak (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Schmid and Williams), alongside a 30yr bond auction and weekly jobless claims. Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese PPI, Australian MI Inflation Gauge, Supply from Australia & Japan. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 +1.3% Nasdaq Comp. +1.6% DJIA +0.5% Russell 2000 +0.9% ES Dec'26 +1.3% RTY Dec'26 +0.9% NQ Dec'26 +2.2% YM Dec'26 +0.6% FX DXY +0.7% (102.93) EUR/USD -0.7% USD/JPY +0.7% GBP/USD -0.5% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -5.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -4 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.00% German 10yr Yield 3.32% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +0.4% Brent Jan'27 +1.2% Spot Gold -1.2% CME Copper +0.5% CRYPTO Bitcoin +1.1% Ethereum +1.3% As of 21:15GMT/16:15EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Japanese PPI, Australian MI Inflation Gauge, Supply from Australia & Japan. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said the US had won in Iran, while he added that the conflict would end soon and the world would then be a better place. US VP Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official as he emerges as the lead negotiator with Iran, in an effort to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party, according to WSJ citing officials. Furthermore, sources said US President Trump told aides he is open to VP Vance restarting talks with Iran and has empowered him to negotiate, although the discussions remain preliminary. US officials have reportedly tried and failed to pressure Iran's neighbours into closing their border crossings, according to US and Iraqi officials cited by the New York Times. US military said the blockade had prevented Iran from exporting 30bln bbls of oil, according to Al Arabiya. It was separately reported that US forces were working around the clock to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping while strictly enforcing the naval blockade against Iran. Iran attacked ship navigation systems on Oman's Didamar island in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters citing sources. Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Washington had not yet provided any official or specific response to the message and plan presented by Iran, while he added that Washington would have to fully implement Iran's seven conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume negotiations, according to Tasnim. Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said an agreement could be reached with Washington if it adhered to what had been agreed and avoided behaviour that undermined trust, according to Al Jazeera. He also stated that the main obstacle to an agreement was Iran's lack of trust in Washington and its attempts to impose excessive demands. Ghalibaf warned that US President Trump would face another defeat if he decided to resume the war, adding that Iran was determined to overcome the state of neither war nor peace, not necessarily through negotiations but through sustained deterrence. Furthermore, he said the US had visited Moscow and asked Russian President Putin to speak with Iran about direct negotiations, as well as stated that ending the war with Iran and the Resistance Front was a clause in the memorandum of understanding and one of Iran's seven conditions. Iran's Security Chief Rezaei said Tehran was not negotiating with the US, describing claims of ongoing talks as a lie intended to lower oil prices, according to SNN. Iran's Rezaei warned that any new US attack would also prompt Iran to target "distant" US military bases, while he added that Iran would not remove any enriched nuclear material from the country, according to Al Mayadeen. It was separately reported that Rezaei said Iran would target US military bases in Europe if US aircraft departed from there to strike Iran, while he discussed the importance of the North Sea corridor with Russian President Putin, as well as the possible transfer of Russian gas to Iran. Iranian Brigadier General Abdollahi said any further US miscalculation would be met with "deadlier strikes", stressing that the threat was serious. Iranian senior officials believe the US is planning either further military strikes or an ever-tightening economic stranglehold that will push Tehran into retaliatory action, according to The Guardian citing the Telegram of an Advisor to Iran's Ghalibaf. It was separately reported that an advisor to Iran's Ghalibaf said containing the UAE was the best way to attack the siege. Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by Houthis towards the western region. Hezbollah Secretary General said there was no longer any need for negotiations, arguing that the framework agreement reached by Lebanese government officials had satisfied all of Israel's demands and left nothing outstanding, according to Fars. US TRADE US stocks closed in the green on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq outperforming as technology stocks extended their recovery amid the ongoing AI rebound. Sentiment was supported by strong earnings from CoreWeave (CRWV) after-hours Tuesday, with shares rallying 24.5%, reversing some of the recent weakness and helping ease concerns surrounding the sector. The report also boosted other neocloud names, with attention turning to Nebius (NBIS) earnings on Thursday for further insight into the sector. Given the rebound in neocloud names easing some data centre concerns, hyperscalers have seen some pressure, with META, MSFT, and AMZN all closing lower, as it may reduce the demand for them to pick up some of the excess slack. SPX +1.27% at 7,617, NDX +2.28% at 28,374, DJI +0.48% at 52,481, RUT +0.86% at 2,846. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and said China was willing to properly manage differences and sensitive issues, as well as strengthen communication and cooperation with the US, according to Xinhua. The phone call was described as positive and constructive. NOTABLE HEADLINES Internal debate is ongoing at the Fed over the departure date for Williams, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. The discussion centres on whether he can remain in the role until the end of his term in June 2028 or whether Fed rules mean he should step down in June 2027, when he turns 65. US House Democrats are preparing legal challenges and investigations ahead of January, when Hakeem Jeffries is expected to become speaker, Politico reported. Planned investigations include alleged corruption involving the Trump family, pardons, deportations, Justice Department actions against political opponents and the withholding of federal funding. US House China Panel Chair Moolenaar said subpoenas would likely follow if Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang did not respond, adding that Nvidia had lost significant credibility. He said there had so far been no response from the company or its CEO. FX USD continued to move higher following Tuesday’s hawkish Fed repricing, in the wake of Waller’s remarks and the hotter-than-expected CPI report. Along the same lines, Paulson (2026 voter) said overnight that the Fed will move more aggressively if the inflation landscape worsens, but reiterated the party line that further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation, and that the exact path of policy depends on how the economy evolves. Newsflow was otherwise very thin, with no Fed speak or data due to Veterans Day. On geopolitics, Ukraine-Russia rhetoric was more constructive, albeit with no significant breakthrough, while Iran’s Rezaei struck a punchier tone than in recent talks. Looking to Thursday, there is plenty of Fed speak (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Schmid and Williams), alongside a 30yr bond auction and weekly jobless claims. EUR gave up ground to the firmer buck and slipped to sub-1.1100 territory, while the single currency was not helped by quiet newsflow and with little scheduled for the rest of the week for the EU. GBP was pressured and failed to sustain the 1.3300 status, albeit with downside somewhat cushioned, while BoE’s Greene said it is appropriate “to proactively tighten our monetary policy stance to lean against the risk of wage growth getting stuck at higher levels” and participants now look ahead to a slew of data from the UK on Thursday, including GDP figures for Q3. JPY was pressured amid the dollar strength and gains in stocks, which saw USD/JPY advance to print intraday highs just shy of the 160.00 level. SNB's Schlegel said the central bank was ready to intervene actively in FX markets. FIXED INCOME T-note futures settled lower, seemingly weighed on by rising oil prices and the continued recovery in equities, while cash Treasury trading was closed on account of Veterans Day, making for a relatively quiet session. COMMODITIES Oil prices were firmer amid some punchy rhetoric out of Iran, although the crude benchmarks remained a long way off recent highs, given the more constructive tone between the US and Iran over the past week or so, while it was also reported that US VP Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official as he emerges as the lead negotiator with Iran. OPEC MOMR (Nov) kept 2026 and 2027 demand and supply forecasts unchanged from the prior report, with global oil demand forecast to grow by 0.2mln bpd Y/Y in 2026 and by about 2.6mln bpd Y/Y in 2027. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE US Envoy Kushner said that he and Witkoff would travel to Russia to meet President Putin on Thursday following the Abu Dhabi talks, adding that progress had been made on Ukrainian security guarantees and that post-conflict security had been discussed. Kushner described territorial issues as the most difficult part of the negotiations, while he called the first meeting good but tough and said discussions with the EU and NATO had gone well, as well as stressed that Europe should be involved. Furthermore, he noted that there was currently no trust between the sides and that peace talks remained complicated, although all the necessary points for a deal were on the table and efforts were underway to bring them together, while he and Witkoff would meet Ukrainian President Zelensky after their meeting with Putin. US Envoy Kushner said significant disagreements remained over Ukraine, noting that the sides were committed to building on progress made and advancing towards broader multilateral negotiations that could deliver lasting peace and a sovereign, secure and prosperous Ukraine. US has asked Russia to submit a new proposal for a future security agreement with Europe that includes Russian steps to ease tension with the continent, according to Axios citing sources. Russian Official Ushakov said the Abu Dhabi talks had been substantial and very useful, adding that Russian President Putin was due to meet US envoys Witkoff and Kushner on Thursday morning. Ushakov also said the possibility of a bilateral meeting between Putin and US President Trump on the sidelines of the APEC summit was being discussed and examined. Russian Presidential Aide Medinsky described the Abu Dhabi talks as businesslike and friendly, saying the conflict had demonstrated that the European security system was functioning poorly and that negotiations would continue. He said European security had been a key topic, adding that it was right to consider the future of security in the region once the conflict was resolved and that any new security system needed to be fair. Medinsky said Russia had received no peace proposals or initiatives from the EU and therefore did not know what there was to discuss with the bloc, although any proposals would be considered. He also confirmed that Russia had agreed to a large-scale prisoner swap with Ukraine, as expected, which could take place in the coming weeks. Medinsky described US involvement as positive and said American mediators had played a constructive role. Russia's Top Ukraine Negotiator Medinsky said it appeared the sides were closer to peace, but added that much now depended on all participants in the process. Russia's Medinsky said Moscow saw no possibility of territorial exchanges with Ukraine, according to Tass. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said the Abu Dhabi talks had provided a foundation for further work and that discussions with the US would continue. Russian Foreign Ministry said Russia was not planning to attack Europe. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's envoys reject ceasefire proposals. Ukraine negotiator Umerov said after the Abu Dhabi talks that negotiations should be multilateral rather than trilateral, with European countries involved. Umerov also stated that there was good momentum towards reaching a solution before the end of 2026 and that no ultimatums had been put forward. German government spokesperson said there was a proposal for European countries to join future Ukraine talks. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation report said the central bank would implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth. PBoC will step up counter-cyclical adjustments, maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions, as well as adjust monetary policy tools as appropriate in response to economic and financial conditions. PBoC also pledged to enhance the flexibility, forward-looking nature and precision of policy, guide short-term money market rates to move steadily around the policy rate, keep overall financing costs low, and strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES BoE's Greene said it was appropriate to proactively tighten the monetary policy stance to guard against the risk of wage growth becoming entrenched at higher levels, according to the Financial Times. UK PM Burnham said an agreement with the EU could add 0.4% to UK GDP. UK Chancellor Healey said the government could reject data centres if they did not deliver any benefits. German Finance Minister said Germany's AAA credit rating was not in danger.