米市場総括：テクノロジー株高で株式上昇、FRB後にドルは下落

SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries steepen, Crude up, Dollar down, Gold flat REAR VIEW: Fed holds rates as expected, Warsh offers no hawkish surprise; US VP Vance reportedly reaches out to an Iranian hard-liner in a bid to restart peace talks; Iran's FM Araghchi says Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed; Mediators and Iran reportedly consulting on a meeting before November 4th; BoC hikes rates as expected, points towards further tightening; Surprise RBNZ hold in 4-3 split; Strong SK Hynix Q3 earnings; ORCL's plan to limit capex increases well received; GOOGL releases Gemini 4 Carbon frontier AI models; DoJ reportedly inquiring about NVDA's purchase of Hugging Face; Hotter-than-expected Australian CPI. COMING UP: Data: Swedish GDP (Q3/Sep), EU Economic Sentiment (Oct), US GDP (Q3), PCE (Sep), Jobless Claims (w/e Oct/24), Personal Income (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct), Japanese Retail Sales (Sep). Events: ECB Policy Announcement (Oct), EU-Canada summit (29-30 Oct). Speakers: ECB President Lagarde, Cipollone. Supply: Japan, Italy, UK, US. Earnings: Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Intel, Amazon, Sandisk, Starbucks, Shell, Lloyds, Glencore, Schneider Electric, TotalEnergies, Air Liquide, STMicroelectronics, BBVA. MARKET WRAP Stocks closed in the green on Wednesday, with outperformance in the Nasdaq, although the equal-weight S&P 500 was flat. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Tech, Energy and Financials leading, while Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples closed in the red. Tech received a boost from Oracle (ORCL) after it provided long-term guidance and announced plans to limit capital raises, helping support several recently pressured neocloud names following debt concerns in the AI space. Note: after-hours earnings saw Google (GOOGL) tumble post-earnings while Microsoft (MSFT) rallied. Cyber & Software names were hit after Fortinet (FTNT) and ServiceNow (NOW) figures. The Treasury yield curve steepened in the wake of the FOMC rate decision and press conference. The Fed left rates on hold as expected, although Cook and Hammack dissented in favour of a 25bps hike. The statement added the line: "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal", emphasising its data-dependent approach to policy decisions. Meanwhile, Chair Warsh's press conference delivered few hawkish surprises, and he continued to avoid explicit forward guidance, with the yield curve steepening during his remarks. The Dollar was sold during the FOMC press conference, but the Kiwi was the clear laggard following the surprise RBNZ hold overnight, against expectations for a hike. The dovish RBNZ surprise weighed on NZD and shifted rate differentials in favour of AUD, while the broader equity upside and hot Australian inflation also supported the Aussie. CAD was bid amid firmer oil prices and the BoC rate hike. GBP was little changed following the UK budget, which was largely as expected, with fiscal headroom seen at GBP 15bln by 2029/30, in line with forecasts. Crude prices were volatile but settled firmer, although reporting remained mixed regarding the nature of talks between the US and Iran. The latest report came around the closing bell, with the WSJ reporting that US VP Vance had reached out to an Iranian hardliner in a bid to restart peace talks. Meanwhile, NewsNation reported there had been considerable back-and-forth between the two nations via mediators, with discussions generally positive but no final decisions made. It added that the US had not informed Gulf nations of plans for a short, intense military campaign after the midterms, contrary to overnight WSJ reporting. FED FOMC SNAP ANALYSIS: Fed holds rates, as expected, with two hawkish dissenters and an addition to the statement to stress data dependence in its decision-making. The Federal Reserve left rates on hold at 3.75-4.00%, as widely expected, with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favour of a 25bps hike, with the former somewhat of a surprise. As has been the case under the Warsh stewardship, the statement was little changed, but added one key line, which says, "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal". This likely shows the Fed is committed to a data-dependent approach when deciding policy, but we will look for any further elaboration from Chair Warsh's press conference. Aside from that addition, the only other change was its upgrading of language around economic growth to "strong" from "solid". It reiterated the familiar lines that inflation remains elevated and once again highlighted the steady labour side of mandate, stating "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little". All in all, desks await Warsh's presser for any further clues ahead, but he is usually reluctant to provide any explicit forward guidance. WARSH: Fed Chair Warsh continued to avoid explicit forward guidance and stressed his commitment to price stability. When asked about the meeting, he described it as a "strong family fight", but added that the overwhelming judgement was that the monetary medicine was starting to work. The FOMC decided to take stock of where things stand, with the view that policymakers will have more information over the next six weeks to make an appropriate decision in December. He reiterated that September's rate hike removed a dose of accommodation and said he was encouraged by the progress made in a short period. Warsh also discussed financial conditions, stating that he would not characterise them as tight, while speaking positively about economic growth. On AI, Warsh stressed that the sector is not immune to interest rates, citing recent corporate debt developments. Meanwhile, Warsh provided some insight into the future structure of FOMC meetings. The eight-meeting format will remain, although one meeting in 2027, beginning in the fall, will focus on strategy and will not involve a monetary policy decision or vote. The number of strategy meetings will increase to two per year in 2028. In reaction, the Treasury yield curve steepened amid a lack of hawkish surprises and Warsh's continued reluctance to provide forward guidance, while the Dollar weakened. Money markets continue to price a December hike as the base case, with the implied probability easing to around 85% from 90% beforehand. DATA US ADVANCE GOODS TRADE BALANCE: The September US goods trade deficit widened to USD 134.9bln from USD 132.07bln, wider than the USD 130bln expected. Goods exports rose USD 5.3bln to USD 209.2bln, while imports increased USD 8.1bln to USD 344.1bln from August. Wholesale inventories were estimated at USD 1.0115tln, rising 0.6% M/M and 7.4% Y/Y, while retail inventories were estimated at USD 885.3bln, rising 0.3% M/M and 4.8% Y/Y. Within the trade report, exports of foods, feeds and beverages rose 12.8% M/M, while imports of capital goods increased 7.5% M/M, or 77.2% Y/Y, potentially reflecting continued demand for AI-related investment. Regarding the implications for GDP, Oxford Economics suggests the data "points to a 3.25 ppt drag from net exports on Q3 GDP, which is a larger weight than is pencilled into the current baseline. That said, the strength in imports is also boosting business equipment investment and private inventories, which will offset much of the drag from net exports". FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 8 TICKS LOWER AT 105-25+ Yield curve steepens during FOMC press conference amid lack of hawkish surprises and continued reluctance to provide forward guidance. At settlement, 2-year -1.1bps at 4.728%, 3-year +0.6bps at 4.807%, 5-year +2.5bps at 4.871%, 7-year +3.8bps at 4.951%, 10-year +4.6bps at 5.045%, 20-year +4.9bps at 5.408%, 30-year +5.1bps at 5.362%. THE DAY: The overall reaction to the Fed was a steeper yield curve, with long-end yields rising while front-end yields declined. The move appeared to reflect a lack of hawkish surprises from Fed Chair Warsh during the press conference, while he continued to avoid explicit forward guidance, stressing data dependence but maintaining his strong commitment to price stability. Warsh also added that the Fed does not believe it needs to throw people out of work to achieve its inflation goal. He also provided insight into the meeting structure for next year, with one of the eight scheduled meetings in 2027 set to focus on strategy rather than involve a monetary policy vote. This will increase to two strategy meetings in 2028. Attention now turns to PCE and GDP on Thursday, which will help further shape Fed rate expectations given the central bank's continued emphasis on incoming economic data. Ahead of the Fed, yields had been rising, particularly at the front end by c. 3bps, tracking gains in oil prices. Meanwhile, in the UK, Chancellor Healey's budget was largely as expected and resulted in little price action, with fiscal headroom at GBP 15bln, in line with expectations, giving Gilts a slight boost. Oil prices were driven by geopolitics, with Iranian officials denying reports that Qatar had presented a new proposal to end hostilities. Meanwhile, multiple reports suggested Trump could resume attacks on Iran after the midterms. However, Iran FM Araghchi said Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and remains in close contact with intermediaries to review ideas. Note: On the closing bell, downside in oil prices and slight upside in T-notes was seen in response to a WSJ report that US VP Vance reached out to an Iranian hard-liner in a bid to restart peace talks. Supply US to sell USD 44bln of 7-year notes on Thursday 29th October. US sold 17-wk bills at a high rate of 4.140%, B/C 3.08x US to sell USD 115bln in 4-week bills and USD 110bln in 8-week bills on October 29. STIRS/OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 21.5bps (prev. 22.6bps) EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 115bln (prev. USD 109bln) on October 27th SOFR at 3.95% (prev. 3.93%), volumes at USD 3.147tln (prev. USD 3.086tln) on October 27th NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.18bln (prev. 0.23bln) across 2 counterparties (prev. 2) on October 28th CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 2.88 HIGHER AT 102.78/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 2.23 HIGHER AT 111.64/BBL The crude complex saw gains as US-Iran tensions continue to intensify, amid reports that military movements are under way in the Middle East to give US President Trump options if he decides to resume strikes against Iran. Adding to this, the WSJ reported overnight, citing sources, that the US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the midterm elections. As a result, WTI and Brent ground higher through the US session to hit peaks of USD 103.55/bbl and USD 112.61/bbl, but saw knee-jerk downside after Iran's Foreign Minister said "Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed, and remains in close, ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of its 7-day plan in even less than a week". Earlier in the session, benchmarks saw two-way trade on reports about Qatar. Initially, energy prices fell on reports that Qatari mediators had presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, with Iran considering the proposal and a response expected by the end of the week, but the move was swiftly pared as separate reports indicated that Qatar had not presented a new proposal to end hostilities between Iran and the US. Ahead of settlement, choppy trade was seen in response towards Axios reports (citing sources) that mediators are warning Iran that accepting the proposals may be its only way to avert major attacks after the midterms; The White House has told mediators it will give its view on the proposed deal once it knows whether Iran accepts. On the supply side, Fars reported that satellite imagery indicates significant damage to the main refining unit at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) following a strike by Yemeni armed forces, leaving the unit inoperable. However, Saudi Arabia has yet to confirm this. As a reminder, on Tuesday a Houthi military spokesperson claimed Yemeni forces had struck the facility. Elsewhere, the White House stated that the oil agreement with Venezuela will deliver a total of 65bln barrels. In the weekly EIA data, crude drew 1.892mln bbls, with the SPR falling 0.1mln bbls to 282.6mln bbls. Distillates drew more than anticipated and gasoline saw an unexpected build. Crude production jumped 723k BPD W/W to 13.992mln BPD. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX +0.28% at 7,744, NDX +0.55% at 29,813, DJI +0.19% at 52,480, RUT +0.43% at 2,831 SECTORS: Utilities -0.88%, Real estate -0.65%, Consumer staples -0.38%, Consumer discretionary flat, Materials +0.16%, Health +0.25%, Industrials +0.28%, Communication services +0.35%, Financials +0.36%, Energy +0.41%, Technology +0.48%. EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.03% at 6,167, Dax 40 +0.42% at 25,697, FTSE 100 +0.07% at 10,695, CAC 40 +0.00% at 7,887, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 49,824, IBEX 35 -1.45% at 18,884, PSI -0.08% at 9,246, SMI -0.12% at 14,581, AEX -0.37% at 1,136. STOCK SPECIFICS: OpenAI plans to purchase AI chips from Google (GOOG). Trian offering to buy Wendy's (WEN) for USD 1.4bln or USD 7.35/shr in cash; note. Culper Research announces short on Cerebras (CBRS). JCapital Research announces short on Iron Mountain (IRM). Google (GOOGL) releases its Gemini 4 Carbon frontier AI model, two weeks after the Argon debut. US DOJ is inquiring about Nvidia’s (NVDA) purchase of Hugging Face, according to reports. US FTC is demanding information on personalised pricing and wage-setting strategies from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT), DoorDash (DASH), Instacart (CART), Delta (DAL), United (UAL) and JetBlue (JBLU), according to reports. Oracle (ORCL) shares rallied as it capped additional capital raises through FY30 at USD 20bln (USD 10bln equity, USD 10bln debt) and guided for capex to peak in FY27-FY28 before stepping down in FY29, with positive FCF in H2 FY28, self-funded growth from FY29, and USD 30bln+ FCF that year. EARNINGS: SK Hynix (SKHY): EPS & rev. topped supported by strong AI-driven memory demand, higher chip prices & a substantial shareholder return plan NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): Next Q outlook underwhelmed investors Enphase Energy (ENPH): Headline metrics missed w/ dismal next Q rev. guidance Amphenol (APH): Top & bottom line beat w/ strong Q4 view Robinhood Markets (HOOD): Rev. marginally light & transaction-based rev. fell short PPG Industries (PPG): EPS, rev. beat & raised midpoint of FY profit view Vertiv (VRT): Stellar Q report & FY outlook GE Vernova (GEV): Q nos. beat Wall St. exp. alongside lifting FY numbers GE HealthCare (GEHC): Solid report as major metrics impressed & lifted 2026 outlook Boston Scientific (BSX): Weak next Q view & cut FY figures Etsy (ETSY): EPS & rev. surpassed Wall St. exp. Visa (V): Higher-than-exp. client incentives & potentially underwhelming EPS outlook overshadowed stronger-than-exp. results. FX The dollar was hit as Fed Chair Warsh's remarks, following the expected decision to hold rates, lacked the hawkish elements needed to support the buck. The decision was met with two hawkish dissenters, Hammack (exp.) and Cook (unexp.), with the Committee noting that "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal". Choppy trade was seen at first on the statement and decision, before USD pressure set in shortly after the press conference as short-end yields began to decline. The move was prompted by a lack of hawkish surprises from Fed Chair Warsh, with markets no longer fully pricing three 25bps hikes by end-2027. Meanwhile, long-end yields rose, likely on the notion that the Fed may be falling behind the curve given the recent hot PPI and CPI readings, as well as Warsh saying he is unwilling and unable to call financial conditions tight (despite supporting a hold); more clarity should come with Thursday's PCE report. At pixel time, DXY trades around 102.13, against early intraday highs of 102.49. USD/CAD traded lower, helped by post-Fed USD downside, whilst higher Canadian government bond yields provided a supportive backdrop. The rise in yields came in response to the BoC signalling further hikes on top of today's preemptive 25bps hike, aimed at curbing second-round effects and preventing any de-anchoring of inflation expectations. The Governing Council has said any further tightening will proceed carefully given uncertainties, with decisions taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis. EUR/USD was firmer on the aforementioned USD weakness ahead of tomorrow's ECB announcement, where policymakers are expected to hold rates at 2.50% despite elevated energy prices and inflation concerns. Sterling was also firmer on the same themes. The UK Autumn Budget showed Chancellor Healey confirming a 3ppt increase in the bank tax surcharge, while the OBR raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 3.4% from 2.0% and lowered GDP growth expectations to 1.0%. The DMO also raised planned gilt issuance to GBP 250.6bln (exp. 249.6bln), although a reduction in long-dated issuance provided some support to gilts. NZD was the worst G10 performer on the RBNZ's surprise decision to hold rates, catching hawkishly positioned markets off guard. The decision was a narrow 4-3 vote in favour of a hold (money markets had priced a 93% chance of a 25bps hike), with differing views on the weight assigned to various risks and the timing of the monetary policy response, although members agreed on the inflation outlook. The Committee agreed that tighter monetary policy is likely to be required, but that this remains dependent on the economic outlook. NZD/USD hit lows of 0.5580 before recovering some of the losses to 0.5627 on late-session USD weakness.