【プレビュー】RBAの政策金利決定、2026年11月3日火曜日03:30GMT（EST月曜日22:30）に予定

RBA is widely expected to hike the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85% on Tuesday. RBA resumed hiking rates in September for its fourth hike this year. Acceleration of inflation and continued hawkish rhetoric support the case for a hike. OVERVIEW: The RBA is expected to hike rates when it concludes its policy meeting on Tuesday, with money markets pricing around an 81% likelihood the central bank will raise the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85% and around a 19% probability for rates to be kept at the current 4.60% level. The central bank will also release its latest quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which includes an assessment of current economic and financial conditions, the outlook for the period ahead, and the risks to that outlook. RBA RESUMED HIKING RATES AT THE LAST MEETING AND STUCK TO A HAWKISH TONE: The RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.60% at its last meeting in September, which was as expected and marked the central bank’s fourth rate increase so far this year, while the decision was made unanimously and the language remained hawkish as it noted that inflation remains elevated and that some of the upside risks from August are materialising, with the Board to continue to take whatever action it considers necessary to return inflation sustainably to target, including raising the cash rate target further if required. The RBA stated that the conflict in the Middle East has widened and global energy prices are now significantly higher than assumed in the August forecast, and that recent inflation outcomes in Australia were stronger than anticipated at the previous meeting. In terms of the press conference, RBA Governor Bullock struck a more dovish-than-usual tone, as although she stated that inflationary pressures are to last longer than expected and that the Board will raise rates again if needed, she also commented that if inflation comes down, then it is possible no more hikes are needed and that she hopes the four rate hikes already delivered, will be restrictive enough to slow inflation. THE ACCELERATION OF INFLATION AND CONTINUED HAWKISH TONE SUPPORT A HIKE: There has been an acceleration in the latest inflation figures as Australian Monthly CPI in September and Quarterly CPI for Q3 ticked higher and either matched or topped forecasts, which has spurred further rate hike bets. The latest rhetoric from the central bank was also hawkish as RBA Governor Bullock recently stated that she recognises that higher interest rates can be challenging, but cannot allow elevated inflation to persist, and that oil and related prices have risen sharply again and will contribute materially to inflation. Furthermore, she said inflation is likely to exceed the August base-case forecast, that upside inflation risks are materialising and that inflation is far too high. ANNOUNCEMENT: The announcement is scheduled for Tuesday at 03:30GMT (22:30EST on Monday) and aside from the decision on rates, attention will turn to the central bank’s language and whether it maintains the hawkish rhetoric and signals a further hike in December. Participants will also get to digest the latest quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, including the central bank’s forecasts, while Governor Bullock will conduct the post-meeting press conference an hour after the initial announcement.