Newsquawk デイリー欧州オープニングニュース - 2026年10月28日

US told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the US midterm elections, according to people briefed on the conversations cited by WSJ. NZD/USD slumped following the surprise decision by the RBNZ to keep rates unchanged at 2.75% in a narrow 4-3 vote split. APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a subdued cash market open. Crude futures rebounded overnight following yesterday's choppy trade; 10yr UST futures mildly retreated as yields edged higher in tandem with oil prices. Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov), US Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Fed Policy Announcement (Oct), BoC Policy Announcement (Oct), UK Autumn Budget. Speakers include BoC’s Macklem & Fed Chair Warsh. Supply from Germany & the US. Earnings from GE Vernova, Phillips 66, Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, FedEx, T-Mobile, Ford, UBS, Airbus, Unilever & GSK. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 +1.3% ASX 200 U/C Hang Seng +0.2% Shanghai Comp +0.7% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 -0.3% DAX Dec'26 -0.2% ES Dec'26 U/C NQ Dec'26 +0.5% FX DXY +0.1% (102.42) EUR/USD U/C (1.1122) USD/JPY -0.1% (157.87) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3291) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -6 ticks Bund Dec'26 -28 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.02% German 10yr Yield 3.36% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +1.6% Brent Jan'27 +1.5% Spot Gold -0.7% LME Copper -0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.1% Ethereum +0.2% As of 06:20GMT / 02:20EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov), US Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Fed Policy Announcement (Oct), BoC Policy Announcement (Oct), UK Autumn Budget. Speakers include BoC’s Macklem & Fed Chair Warsh. Supply from Germany & the US. Earnings from GE Vernova, Phillips 66, Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, FedEx, T-Mobile, Ford, UBS, Airbus, Unilever & GSK. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump replied anything is possible when asked if there will be strikes against Iran after the election. US told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the US midterm elections, according to people briefed on the conversations cited by WSJ. US cost of Iran war operations climbed above USD 47bln, according to a Pentagon estimate. Iranian President Pezeshkian said there was little point in expecting the US to resolve problems in the Middle East, during a meeting with Russian President Putin. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi held a call with his Jordanian counterpart, and they discussed efforts to end the escalation in the region and reach a sustainable ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Iranian source denied a report of a Trump-backed plan being delivered via Pakistan's army chief, stating this was completely false and that no new proposal was presented to Iran. The source added that Tehran's conditions are clear, and without a convincing response and tangible implementation, the Strait of Hormuz won't reopen. Houthi media reported seven airstrikes targeted Harf Sufyan district in Amran, Yemen. Saudi Civil Defence issued an emergency early warning for Jeddah and Yanbu governorates. Furthermore, Arab sources reported several explosions were heard in Saudi cities of Jeddah and Yanbu, while Saudi Civil Defence announced shortly after that the danger had passed in Jeddah and Yanbu. Jordanian and Syrian foreign ministers agreed to form a joint security committee to investigate details of recent Jordanian strikes on Islamic State sites in Syria. An early Israeli exit poll showed Israeli PM Netanyahu's coalition won 50 out of 120 seats, while the opposition won 52 seats and Arab-led parties won 18 seats. However, Israel's election committee later announced that after counting 37% of the votes, Israel PM Netanyahu's camp has 57 seats vs 47 seats for the opposition and 16 seats for Arab parties. Israeli PM Netanyahu said they are still waiting for real results, but noted that Likud was the largest party in Israel, while he added that the Zionist majority must wake up and unite. Netanyahu also commented that it is forbidden to form a government with Arab parties and that Israel is facing a historic opportunity to remove the Iranian threat. Israeli opposition leader Eisenkot said he will seek to form a Zionist government to implement universal compulsory military service and that his goal is to represent all Israelis, while he stated the public has voted for change and against Netanyahu. Furthermore, he said they have made history and will wait for the final results, but added that things are clear. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks were bid and gains were led by the Nasdaq as AI names continued to recover from recent pressures, with the tech recovery partly supported as Anthropic's S-1 release on Monday and Meta's financing deal announcement continued to help ease some of the AI concerns during Tuesday's trade. Consumer Discretionary, Tech and Communication were the outperformers thanks to gains in heavyweight stocks, while Energy, Real Estate and Consumer Staples lagged. Furthermore, the Treasury curve saw some mild flattening as front-end yields rose and the long end was flat ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate decision, while there was strong US economic data, including housing, durable goods and consumer confidence reports. SPX +0.60% at 7,723, NDX +1.29% at 29,651, DJI +0.03% at 52,378, RUT +1.16% at 2,819. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE Canadian official said limited progress was made in US trade talks, while it was separately reported that Canada and the UAE signed an economic partnership agreement. NOTABLE HEADLINES US Interior Secretary Burgum signed an order to support American ranchers, expand grazing and reduce red tape. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq outperformed as tech stocks continued to shrug off recent AI-related concerns, while participants digested SK Hynix earnings and await the looming risk events, including central bank decisions. ASX 200 pared initial gains and returned to flat territory as hotter inflation data and hawkish RBA rhetoric boosted rate hike bets for next week's RBA meeting. Nikkei 225 briefly climbed back above the 64,000 level, with the index led higher by tech strength. KOSPI outperformed on the tech momentum, which was also facilitated by SK Hynix shares rallying after its operating profit rose 632% Y/Y to a record KRW 83.3tln, while revenue rose 328% Y/Y to surpass KRW 100tln for the first time, and it also plans to return about KRW 100tln to shareholders this year. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive mood after the PBoC continued with its firm liquidity efforts, although the upside was capped amid a slew of earnings results and with Pop Mart flagging as much as a 50% drop in Q3 revenue. US equity futures were mixed, with Emini Nasdaq 100 kept afloat following the recent tech rebound. European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Tuesday. FX DXY paused overnight after gaining yesterday, albeit with a mixed performance vs. G10 peers as participants await a deluge of upcoming key events, including the FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh's press conference later today, while there were several recent data releases, in which durable goods, consumer confidence, and new home sales all topped forecasts, although Richmond Fed marginally disappointed. EUR/USD remains lacklustre after steadily declining throughout the past two days, with participants also awaiting the ECB later in the week, while ING thinks EUR/USD probably retains some downside risks at the current levels as the dominating USD leg may find a bit more support ahead of the FOMC. GBP/USD breached through the prior day's trough to trade beneath the 1.3300 territory, while the attention in the UK turns to Chancellor Healey, who will deliver his first Budget today. USD/JPY took a breather after briefly reclaiming the 158.00 handle amid recent dollar strength and the mostly positive risk appetite, while markets await the approaching central bank announcements. Antipodeans were mixed, with AUD/USD briefly supported after the latest CPI data and hawkish RBA comments, while NZD/USD slumped following the surprise decision by the RBNZ to keep rates unchanged at 2.75% in a narrow 4-3 vote split, although the central bank flagged the likelihood of hikes at future meetings. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7165 vs exp. 6.6734 (prev. 6.7171). FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures mildly retreated as yields edged higher in tandem with oil prices, while participants await central bank policy decisions, including from the Fed later today. Bund futures dipped beneath the 122.00 level amid inflationary pressures and looming Bund supply. 10yr JGB futures conformed to the downside momentum seen in global peers amid higher energy prices. COMMODITIES Crude futures rebounded overnight following yesterday's choppy performance amid mixed geopolitical headlines and with political uncertainty in Israel following an inconclusive vote, as Israeli PM Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition camp both failed to secure a majority, while Netanyahu commented that Israel is facing a historic opportunity to remove the Iranian threat. US Weekly Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.0mln (exp. +0.5mln), Gasoline +2.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate +0.4mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing -0.5mln. US President Trump said he is terminating Biden's methane regulations. US Energy Secretary Wright said the suspension of sanctions on Russia was temporary and that the US was ramping up LNG exports, while he added that Russia could not currently export diesel and that flows of refined products through the Strait of Hormuz had increased. Wright also commented that the Iran war has come at a cost and that the war with Iran is unfortunate timing. Spot gold pulled back amid a rebound in oil prices and upside in yields, with some likely positioning heading into today's FOMC policy announcement. Copper futures plateaued after recently advancing alongside the tech-led momentum. CRYPTO Bitcoin traded indecisively and briefly returned to above the USD 81,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 2.75% (exp. 25bps hike) with the decision made by a 4-3 vote split (Breman, Hansen, Gai and Williams voted for a hold, while Conway, Gourley and Silk voted for a hike). RBNZ said members agreed on the inflation outlook but differed in their assessment of risks and the timing of the monetary policy response, while the committee agreed that tighter monetary policy is likely to be required, but remains dependent on the economic outlook. RBNZ also stated there is a risk that inflation becomes entrenched before conventional inflation expectations measures respond, despite the previous two OCR hikes, and the committee remains focused on the medium-term inflation outlook. RBNZ Governor Breman said during the post-meeting press conference that they agreed tighter policy will likely be required, conditional on the economy, while she added that the committee discussed a decline in NZD, which if sustained could add to imported inflation. Breman also stated that further tightening might be needed, even into restrictive territory and that they are likely to implement further rate increases at upcoming meetings. Furthermore, they discussed whether the OCR path will need to be lifted, and she commented that it is likely the OCR is to rise higher than the previous path. RBA Governor Bullock said a key question is whether monetary policy tightening so far will be sufficient to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe, while she added they remain committed to the mandate of delivering price stability and full employment. Bullock said she recognises that higher interest rates can be challenging, but cannot allow elevated inflation to persist, and that oil and related prices have risen sharply again and will contribute materially to inflation, with inflation likely to exceed the August base-case forecast. Furthermore, she said upside inflation risks are materialising and that inflation is far too high. DATA RECAP Australian CPI (Sep YY) 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.0%) Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (Sep YY) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%) Australian Quarterly CPI (Q3 YY) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 3.9%) Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (Q3 YY) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.5%) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump said there will be a meeting with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky set up soon, while Trump also stated there will be a meeting on disarmament during his Asia trip. US and Russia are discussing potential post-war business deals, including a JV for US oil majors off Sakhalin and resumed sales via the Druzhba pipeline, as part of wider talks to end the war in Ukraine, according to FT citing sources. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham's government is drawing up plans to hold a major international investment summit in the north-east next spring, in which it will seek to unveil tens of billions of pounds of bilateral deals involving companies and investors, according to Sky News. UK Chancellor Healey is to reverse cuts to cash ISA allowances, in which he will use the Budget to maintain the tax-free limit at GBP 20,000 a year, reversing a plan by his predecessor, according to FT. UK Chancellor Healey prepares to slash household gas bills by GBP 50, according to Telegraph. UK NHS will reportedly freeze prescription charges at the current level, according to Telegraph. Italian PM Meloni’s government is set to pass an EU-compliant budget for 2027, according to FT. European Commission is exploring whether to use revenue from a global tax agreement on multinational companies to finance the seven-year budget, according to EU diplomats cited by Politico.