Newsquawk 欧州デイリー・オープニングニュース - 2026年11月10日

US President Trump said he had an excellent conversation with Qatar's PM and that US military action against Iran seems unlikely at this point; reports suggest a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived US-Iran negotiations. APAC stocks traded higher as the tech rebound continued following Wall St's broad rally; European equity futures point to a positive open. DXY was little changed ahead of US CPI, while EUR/USD held above 1.1200 and Cable held above 1.3400. Crude extended its declines amid US-Iran optimism, while spot gold pulled back after Monday's rally. Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian Inflation (Oct), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct), Riksbank Minutes, EIA STEO, BoC Minutes, BCB Minutes. Speakers include Fed's Waller, Schmid & Paulson, BoE's Lombardelli & Pill, ECB's Lane & Cipollone. Supply from the Netherlands, UK & US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Infineon, Porsche SE, TAG Immobilien & Vodafone. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 +2.8% ASX 200 +1.1% Hang Seng +0.5% Shanghai Comp +0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 +0.8% DAX Dec'26 +0.9% ES Dec'26 +0.2% NQ Dec'26 -0.1% FX DXY U/C (101.63) EUR/USD U/C (1.1228) USD/JPY +0.1% (158.02) GBP/USD +0.1% (1.3451) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -2 ticks Bund Dec'26 +17 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.87% German 10yr Yield 3.25% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -1.1% Brent Jan'27 -1.0% Spot Gold -0.4% LME Copper U/C CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.0% Ethereum -0.9% As of 06:20GMT/01:20EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Norwegian Inflation (Oct), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct), Riksbank Minutes, EIA STEO, BoC Minutes, BCB Minutes. Speakers include Fed’s Waller, Schmid & Paulson, BoE’s Lombardelli & Pill, ECB's Lane & Cipollone. Supply from the Netherlands, the UK & the US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Infineon, Porsche SE, TAG Immobilien & Vodafone. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump held a meeting with Qatar's PM Al Thani, which lasted around 45 minutes and focused on the negotiations with Iran, according to Axios citing sources. It was separately reported that meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were positive, and they discussed ways to progress talks with Iran, according to Axios citing a diplomat briefed on the meetings. US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded with the best equipment ever made, but added that they don't think there's going to be a reason to use it. Trump commented that Iran militarily is effectively over, and that Iran is talking to them very politely. US President Trump posted that he had an excellent conversation with Qatar's PM and discussed Iran, while he noted that several Gulf states would prefer the status quo, in other words, a continuation of the naval blockade and the new Operation Iron Gate. Trump added that should there be any change with respect to developments in the Middle East, the US is “locked and loaded” and ready to go, but added that at this point, that seems to be quite unlikely. US President Trump said after talks with the Qatari PM that Qatar would rather see a peaceful solution with Iran, but the US is ready for strikes if necessary, while he added that Saudi Arabia would also prefer a peaceful solution to the Iran conflict. Furthermore, Trump defended Hegseth and said that he won two wars. US President Trump told C-Span that we will find out whether an Iran deal will happen. US Secretary of State Rubio said they are dealing with an out-of-control group in Iran. US War Secretary Hegseth said Iran is in the weakest position it's been in a very long time, and that President Trump has the upper hand on any path that he chooses to take. Hegseth earlier commented that previous presidents had failed to deal with Iran and that someone had to confront the Iranian regime, while he also stated he was not worried that enough Republicans would vote against him to secure a conviction in an impeachment battle. Furthermore, it was separately reported that impeachment articles against War Secretary Hegseth have been introduced in the House of Representatives. A Qatari-Pakistani proposal revives the path of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with arrangements underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, without specifying the scope of their mission, according to Arabiya citing sources. Furthermore, it was reported that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at a level of 3.67%, and Tehran has agreed, while discussions are underway regarding the involvement of a third country to facilitate the reduction of highly enriched uranium levels in Iran, and preliminary agreement on reducing Iranian uranium enrichment is likely. Preparations are underway in Doha to potentially host a new round of US-Iran talks in the coming week as mediators Pakistan and Qatar work to bridge gaps, according to journalist Anas Mallick. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said starting a war on Iran has inflicted grave damage on the US government, while he called on the US to stop publishing false news about illusory negotiations. Furthermore, he stated that the time has come to surrender to the seven conditions that Iran has set out again and again. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the withdrawal of enriched materials from Iran was not an option under any circumstances, according to Mehr News. Baghaei also described the reduction of the deadline for implementing Iran's proposed plan from seven days to two days as a sign of the Islamic Republic's seriousness and goodwill in pursuing diplomacy. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Israelis were working overtime to drag the US into an endless war with Iran, warning that it would become a quagmire from which no president, whether Republican or Democrat, could escape. Ghalibaf added that unless Washington abandoned its "Israel First" mindset, America and its allies were heading towards a dark age. IRGC spokesperson said no mines had been cleared in the Strait of Hormuz and that the waterway remained completely closed, while he added that recent incidents involving numerous oil tankers there contradicted US President Trump's claims. Iranian security source said there were currently no plans to hold a meeting with a representative from Washington in Turkey, according to Al Araby TV. Adviser to the Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force said one of the areas of progress for Iranian specialists is designing missiles that use waves emitted from radar systems, enabling the identification and targeting of the enemy's radar equipment, while he added that the 'Hormuz' missile was designed with the aim of countering radar systems and is capable of homing in on sources of radar wave emissions. Russian military transport aircraft carrying a senior delegation led by the head of Russia's military intelligence agency landed at Ben Gurion Airport on Saturday evening in an unusual visit to Israel, according to Jerusalem Post citing sources. The purpose of the visit and the subjects discussed during the delegation's meetings in Israel remain unclear, but the unusual landing of a Russian military aircraft in Israel comes amid heightened regional tensions and ongoing uncertainty over the possibility of renewed military confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran. Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a chemical plant used for mixing and producing ballistic missile fuel for the Houthis, while it intercepted and destroyed two missiles launched by Yemen's Houthis towards Riyadh. Yemeni news sources reported Saudi airstrikes on a gas station and an oil company building in Sana'a, while there was also a missile strike on the eastern city of Saada, according to IRNA. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks closed firmly in the green on Monday as the post-midterm rout continued to unwind. Gains were broad-based, with all major US indices and S&P 500 sectors closing higher, particularly Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Communication Services. The rally came despite a 5% decline in Nvidia (NVDA) shares amid an investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang following reports of his admitted affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Nonetheless, risk sentiment was also supported by further optimism surrounding the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a major military campaign against Iran, while reports via Al Arabiya on Monday suggested the two sides were moving closer to an agreement and noted that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal had revived the prospect of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. SPX +2.35% at 7,550, NDX +3.40% at 27,908, DJI +2.15% at 52,390, RUT +3.16% at 2,841. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE White House is reportedly considering new export controls on NVIDIA (NVDA) advanced chips, according to The Information. USTR announced that the US extended the trade probe regarding Vietnam's IP protection for three months to the end of February. Canadian Finance Minister said Canada modifies its tariff relief measures, extending the horizontal remission for US tariffs by one year to June 30th 2028, with the tariff relief to include non-steel goods used in mining, quarrying, or the extraction of oil and gas, while Canada is granting targeted tariff relief for certain imported goods that are in short supply in the Canadian market. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said China and Canada have reached agreements during economic discussions, including talks on extending tariff exemptions and EV quotas, whilst reiterating Beijing's willingness to deepen economic and trade cooperation, identify new areas of collaboration and encourage Chinese companies to invest in Canada. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said the main risk lay on the inflation side of the Fed's mandate, adding that the direction of monetary policy was straightforward but that policymakers should proceed with care. Barkin said he was hearing reports of broad-based cost pressures, while describing the US economy as remarkably stable. Resilient demand alongside widespread cost increases was putting upward pressure on prices, with businesses indicating they would try to pass on higher costs. Barkin also said there is no base case for the December meeting, the current policy rate is likely around or slightly below neutral, and the last jobs report was "healthy", though he still sees firms in a low-hire, low-fire environment. US Secretary of State Rubio said there is a need to speak more about disruption from AI on the economy. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks traded higher as markets continued to claw back the losses from the recent tech slump, while lower oil prices and US-Iran optimism also provided some encouragement. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, industrials and the mining sector amid tailwinds from a lower yield environment in Australia. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 60,000 level with SoftBank spearheading the advances amid the tech rebound and with stocks unfazed by the weaker-than-expected Household Spending data from Japan. KOSPI benefitted from the tech rally with a sidecar triggered in early trade but is off today's best levels. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive but lagged behind regional peers as participants digested the somewhat mixed trade data in which dollar-denominated Exports and Imports topped forecasts, although Trade Balance was at a narrower-than-forecast surplus and yuan-denominated Exports slowed. US equity futures were range-bound following the prior day's rally and as markets await US CPI data. European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.9% on Monday. FX DXY was little changed ahead of the latest US CPI data and after weakening yesterday alongside the constructive geopolitical backdrop and cooling energy prices amid increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal, while there was little reaction to the latest Fed comments, including from Barkin, who stated that risk lies on the inflation side of the Fed's mandate and that there is no base case for the December meeting. EUR/USD held on to recent spoils and took a breather after steadily advancing throughout the prior day to return to above the 1.1200 level, in tandem with a softer buck and with very few fresh drivers for the EU. GBP/USD paused overnight after having reclaimed the 1.3400 level and with comments from BoE Governor Bailey providing very little incrementally, in which he stated that there were growing signs of the beginnings of a positive supply shock from AI and the investment required to support it. USD/JPY rebounded from a brief dip beneath the 158.00 handle as the dollar regained some composure, and with the partial recovery in the pair facilitated by soft data, including the weaker-than-expected Household Spending data and a narrower current account surplus. Antipodeans were range-bound after climbing yesterday alongside the positive risk environment, while participants also digested data releases, including varied consumer and business surveys from Australia, and somewhat mixed Chinese trade figures. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7167 vs exp. 6.6655 (prev. 6.7188). FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were subdued after the recent curve flattening and despite the drop in oil prices, as yields gained alongside the continued equity market rebound. Bund futures eked out mild gains with price action contained following recent whipsawing. 10yr JGB futures lacked demand with a muted reaction to the BoJ Summary of Opinions and to the weaker-than-expected Japanese Household Spending data, while the 30yr JGB auction results were mixed. COMMODITIES Crude futures mildly extended declines after slumping yesterday as the mood between the US and Iran turned more constructive, with a peace proposal appearing closer than before, while meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were ‘positive’ and they discussed ways to progress talks with Iran. Furthermore, US President Trump repeated that they are locked and loaded, but added that US military action against Iran is not necessary 'at this point'. Spot gold pulled back after rallying yesterday alongside lower oil prices and a weaker buck, while participants now await the looming US inflation data. Copper futures remained underpinned by the constructive mood, but with the upside capped as participants also digested the latest Chinese trade figures. CRYPTO Bitcoin trickled lower for most of the session with prices slipping back beneath the USD 75,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES BoJ Summary of Opinions noted that a member said it is appropriate to continue raising rates as underlying inflation nears the price target, and a member said maintaining policy is suitable to assess risks around the economy and prices a little more. A member noted there is some weakness in the economy, so the economic and price outlook must be carefully monitored, while it was also stated that it is appropriate to continue raising rates as underlying inflation converges towards levels consistent with the price target. There was the opinion that the BoJ should decide to raise rates when possible without becoming too cautious and that Japan is entering a new phase in which the BoJ needs to accelerate the pace of rate hikes towards levels deemed neutral for the economy. Furthermore, a member said underlying inflation has already reached 2%, and the BoJ needs to bring the policy rate to a neutral level soon, although it was also stated that attention must be paid to the risk that future rate hikes could weigh on the economy and push down inflation. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said the BoJ is estimated to make JPY 1tln from faster ETF sales and it is undecided how much BoJ will remit to the government, while she also stated that some smaller banks are worried about money shifting to retail JGBs and that nothing was decided on preferential tax treatment for retail JGBs with the debate to be left to the LDP. RBNZ chief economist Conway said inflation is too high in New Zealand and that the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. Conway also stated that pockets of weakness remain in the domestic economy and there is clear excess capacity in the labour market, while he noted the risk is that cost shocks become broader inflation pressures. DATA RECAP Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Oct) 105.3B vs. Exp. 125.8B (Prev. 133.5B) Chinese Exports (USD)(Oct YY) 35.2% vs. Exp. 33.5% (Prev. 36.3%) Chinese Imports (USD)(Oct YY) 41.6% vs. Exp. 32.0% (Prev. 31.0%) Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Oct) 712.8B vs. Exp. 859.0B (Prev. 906.0B) Chinese Exports (CNY)(Oct YY) 28.7% (Prev. 29.6%) Chinese Imports (CNY)(Oct YY) 34.7% (Prev. 24.6%) Japanese Household Spending (Sep MM) -2.8% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%) Japanese Household Spending (Sep YY) -6.7% vs. Exp. -3.1% (Prev. -3.1%) Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov) 82.6 (Prev. 80.4) Australian NAB Business Confidence (Oct) -15 (Prev. -13) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a cargo vessel and a tanker in the Black Sea, while there were earlier reports of an air raid alert in the Boryspil district of Kyiv. US President Trump said Abu Dhabi talks this week regarding the war in Ukraine present the chance of a possible breakthrough. US official said conversations with Ukrainian and Russian officials were taking place daily and that European partners would join the Abu Dhabi talks on Ukraine, while Washington would seek to persuade Russia to accept a multilateral format. The official said Europe needed to be at the negotiating table and that NATO would remain central to the European collective defence, while it was also stated that both sides had shown some flexibility privately on territorial concessions and the proposal was to bring Europeans into discussions following the trilateral meeting. US officials said there was a 'real shot' at making 'serious progress' towards ending the Ukraine-Russia war in talks scheduled for Tuesday in Abu Dhabi, according to an RFE/RL reporter. UK Defence Secretary Streeting said the UK and Russia need a new back channel of communication to avoid the risk of a miscalculation, according to FT. OTHER US is pushing back against China's demand for a tightly scripted format at a potential trilateral summit between US, Chinese and Russian leaders on the sidelines of the APEC summit next Wednesday and Thursday, according to WSJ citing sources. US Senator Bennet is circulating a letter urging senators to cut off war funding in the next spending bill, according to Semafor's Everett. EU/UK DATA RECAP UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%) UK Barclays Consumer Spending (Oct YY) 2.3% (Prev. 2.0%)