Newsquawk欧州市場総括－2026年11月6日

European stocks hit, USD bid, yields higher, crude marginally firmer, gold and TTF lower. US NFP smashed expectations at 165k (exp. 65k), with unemployment falling to 4.1% and upward revisions of 84k. The US and Iran are reportedly moving closer to a potential agreement to end the war, according to Bloomberg. EQUITIES European bourses opened on the backfoot and extended lower throughout the session. Major indices are set to end the day with losses between 1.5-2.2%. Pressure which follows on from a poor APAC performance, and as energy prices remained in the green; but does come despite some mild reprieve in the AI/memory space. On that note, in Europe, the likes of ASML (+3.5%) and broader AI-related names have bounced off recent lows. A bout of strength which comes following the hefty selling pressure seen in the past couple of days. Other key movers: Daimler Truck (-5%, Adj. EBIT beat, but North American orders light), Stabilus (-5.3%, lowered 2030 targets), Outokumpu (-15%, offers profit warning), IAG (+1%, reports rev. growth). Stateside indices opened mixed. The ES and NQ have rebounded a touch following the hefty losses seen in the prior session. The latter outperforms, after posting losses in excess of 6% on Thursday. Memory names are broadly stronger this morning, with the DRAM ETF firmer by 7.5%. Elsewhere, DraftKings (-27%) sinks after posting a deeper loss per share, and outlook disappointed. Over in Consumer Products, Under Armour (-2%) falls after revenue fell 7%. On the data front, the US NFP report was strong. Headline topped expectations, whilst the Unemployment Rate ticked lower. This spurred a knee-jerk lower in contracts at the time, but the move ultimately proved fleeting. Focus now turns to the US CPI report next week. Note: Some mild strength was seen across equity markets after a positive Iranian source report regarding US-Iran diplomacy (see commodities for details). FX USD - Firmer against all of its major peers for much of the session, with DXY clearing resistance at the 101.99 (2nd Nov high) and 102.09 (30th Oct peak) levels. The US jobs report was strong across the board, with non-farm payrolls rising 165k (exp. 65k, prev. 60k) alongside 84k of upward revisions, the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% (exp. 4.2%) and average hourly earnings rising 0.4% M/M (exp. 0.3%). The dollar has since come under modest pressure after Al-Arabiya reported that Iran is responding positively to the latest proposal presented by mediators. EUR - Broke beneath Thursday's 1.1203 base overnight and has extended lower through the European session, slipping beneath 1.1140 from a 1.1235 peak. The morning's European data did little for the single currency, with German Industrial Production beating (0.7% M/M vs exp. 0.0%) and EZ Retail Sales disappointing (-0.7% M/M vs exp. -0.1%); price action has been driven by the USD. GBP - Softer and down to a 1.3347 trough from a 1.3464 peak, while EUR/GBP has held a tight 0.8328-0.8352 range. BoE Governor Bailey said he does not agree the UK has endemic inflation, but that the probability of at least one more hike is "reasonably high" if energy prices remain elevated. BoE's Pill said the MPC was short of specific evidence on second-round effects, but a pre-emptive hike is in character. JPY - Haven properties have helped JPY and CHF hold up better than most against the USD, though USD/JPY has still extended into the 158.50s from a 157.26 overnight low. GPIF posted a quarterly loss of JPY 5.3tln, its first in six quarters. CHF has been resilient despite a sizeable miss in Swiss Consumer Confidence at -45 (exp. -35), though USD/CHF has still climbed to a 0.8211 peak. CAD - Hit by a double whammy of the strong US data and a soft domestic jobs report, which saw employment fall by 4.7k (exp. +13.6k) and the unemployment rate rise to 6.7% (exp. 6.5%). USD/CAD up to a 1.4118 peak. Antipodeans - The clear laggards amid the risk aversion that reverberated from APAC into Europe and the losses across metals. AUD/USD down to a 0.6855 trough from a 0.6942 peak, NZD/USD to 0.5529 from 0.5599. FIXED INCOME Global fixed benchmarks were initially firmer, but succumbed to some selling pressure as oil prices gradually moved higher and following a strong US NFP report. To recap, the headline printed at 165k, topping the 65k consensus. Adding to the strong report was a tick lower in the Unemployment Rate, whilst Participation Rate ticked higher. A report which was undoubtedly hot and therefore spurred some selling in US paper. USTs fell from 107-06 to 106-27+ (trough for the day), before gradually paring back towards the 107-00 mark. From a yield perspective, the US 10yr made a session peak of 4.90%, before paring back towards a current 4.87%. Focus for US paper now turns to US CPI next week. But before that, attention will be on US-Iran developments over the weekend, with a strike on Iran possible. Bunds (-6 ticks) and Gilts (-20 ticks) followed the direction dictated by US paper. Pressure comes as the energy space moves a little higher and in tandem with the move lower seen in US paper. For Europe specifically, ECB’s Lane mentioned that it is currently time to gather information, heading into the December confab. Elsewhere, EZ Retail Sales metrics (weaker-than-expected), spurred little action in the German benchmark. Alphabet (GOOG) plans Hong Kong and Singapore USD bonds, IFR reported. COMMODITIES Crude - A choppy session at the end of a week in which it was hit hard, including an 8% slump on Monday and another drop on Wednesday. Benchmarks pared some of Thursday's rebound in the morning as markets digested a call between Qatar's Emir and US President Trump on de-escalation, with WTI Dec'26 and Brent Jan'27 later printing troughs of USD 89.07/bbl and USD 96.67/bbl, from peaks of USD 92.53/bbl and USD 100.83/bbl. Prices recovered into the US session but have come under renewed pressure after Al-Arabiya reported that Iran is responding positively to the latest proposal presented by mediators, adding to Bloomberg's report that the US and Iran are moving closer to a potential agreement. Natural Gas - Dutch TTF slumped over 5% to EUR 86.08/MWh from a EUR 94.83/MWh peak, extending the energy pullback in Europe, while Henry Hub is modestly firmer. Precious Metals - Spot gold had been on track for its biggest weekly gain since August, but has extended to a fresh USD 4,027/oz low in tandem with the strength in the dollar and yields. Palladium is the laggard in the complex, while silver and platinum are also softer. Base Metals - Softer amid the broader risk tone, with 3M LME copper in a USD 13.64k-13.83k/t range. The red metal has not benefited from the Democratic win, as it removes two key bullish catalysts: the rapid buildout of AI infrastructure and the risk of US import tariffs on the metal. Kazakhstan's central bank plans to reduce the share of reserves held in gold to below 75% over the medium term. Zambia expects copper production of 930k tonnes in 2026. Kazakhstan said oil exports to Germany will not resume before the end of 2026. Council of the EU agrees on a position to delay EU methane rules by one year, according to the Irish Presidency. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC IS) said a fire at its IDBH unit killed one person and injured six others. EUROPEAN DATA European Retail Sales (Sep MM) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.4%). European Retail Sales (Sep YY) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.3%). German Industrial Production (Sep MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 2.0%). UK Lloyds House Price Index (Oct MM) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%). UK Lloyds House Price Index (Oct YY) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.1%). UK BBA Mortgage Rate (Oct) 6.58% (Prev. 6.58%). French Trade Balance (Sep) -7.3B vs. Exp. -5.8B (Prev. -6.0B). French Current Account (Sep) -2.70B (Prev. -1.40B). Spanish Industrial Production (Sep YY) 2.0% (Prev. 1.3%). Swiss Consumer Confidence (Oct) -45 vs. Exp. -35 (Prev. -36). Swiss FX Reserves 758.5B (Prev. 770.3B). Norwegian Manufacturing Production (Sep MM) 0.0% (Prev. -0.4%). TRADE/TARIFFS China's MOFCOM initiates an anti-dumping investigation into imports of para-aramid filament yarn from the EU. US House Democrats are reportedly mulling the future of the select panel on US-China competition, Semafor reported; focus could broaden to other foreign actors. CENTRAL BANKS BoE Governor Bailey said "I don't agree we have got endemic inflation", adding that if energy prices remain high, there is a chance of another hike. Said if there is no resolution in the Middle East and energy prices stay high, the probability of at least one more hike is "reasonably high". BoE's Pill said they were short of specific evidence on second round effects, but a pre-emptive hike is in character. No preset path for next year's rates; Bank Rate could stay on hold or even fall if growth stalls next year. ECB is said to be considering a review of bank loans to data centres, Bloomberg reported. ECB's Lane said inflation needs to be back to target in a year or two; referencing December, said now is the time to gather information. Fiscal policy has been more expansionary than expected this year; financial conditions have tightened. Spain nominates former Bank of Spain Governor De Cos for ECB President, according to a letter from the Deputy PM to the Eurogroup Chief. Fed's Williams (voter) said the US economy has been remarkably resilient and inflation has been too high for too long. AI price pressures are significant but narrow, inflation is well anchored, and it is an appropriate time to gather more information. Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) said people remain concerned about inflation at the current level; inflation expectations are anchored right now, consistent with 2%. Excess inflation today is coming from energy shocks and the AI buildout, while consumption and investment are both growing at a fast rate. Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) did not comment on the economic outlook or policy in prepared remarks. NBP Minutes (Oct): significant inflation upside is possible in early 2027; uncertainty is high. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST An Iranian source said Iran is responding positively to the latest proposal presented by mediators, according to Al-Arabiya; Tehran is waiting for practical steps from Washington to build trust. Confidence-building measures with America must be reciprocal, and Iran is open to negotiations that guarantee the fulfilment of its legitimate demands. Iranians are reportedly preparing for a US nuclear attack on Pickaxe Mountain, The Times reported. The US and Iran are reportedly moving closer to a potential agreement to end the war, according to Bloomberg. Iran is studying Qatari proposals on its atomic activities; any concession there could be a significant step forward. Qatar Emir held a phone call with US President Trump; discussed diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region. The Emir stressed freedom of navigation and the security of energy supplies. Iranian and Iraqi Foreign Ministers discussed diplomatic initiatives and regional stability in a phone call, Nour News reported. Two oil tankers are said to be on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Sabereen reported. The IRGC said two tankers attempting an illegal route were stopped and detained in the Strait's territorial waters. Ship targeted in the Strait of Hormuz near the coast of Oman, Sabereen reported. Unconfirmed reports of a US aircraft being targeted off the coast of Oman, Tasnim reported; other reports suggest a US Air Force helicopter issued a 7700 emergency notice off Oman. Iran's Deputy SNSC Secretary Bagheri said Iran will no longer accept US commitments on paper alone and must see concrete actions before a new round of diplomacy. Iranian lawmaker warned Iran's response to America will include Europe and could send oil above USD 150, Tasnim reported. Iran's IRGC Ground Forces commander Karami said its armed forces are fully prepared to deliver a decisive response to any hostile action. Russian President Putin and Iran's Security Council Secretary discussed the situation in the Middle East. Explosions reported in Najran and southern Saudi Arabia following a Saudi Civil Defence warning; damage was reported from missile interception debris, and Civil Defence later said the danger has passed. Saudi Arabia intercepted a drone in the Mecca region. Severe explosions were reported in Dohuk, northern Iraq, Tasnim reported. Houthi forces said they seized strategic positions "overlooking remaining enemy positions in Kahbub", according to Al-Masirah TV. Houthi spokesperson vowed a response to an earlier Saudi strike on the Al-Hadara market; Saudi strikes were also reported on water facilities in Al-Shamaytan, Yemen. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Kremlin said it has no details about the peace agreement mentioned by US President Trump and will not comment on his "big agreement" remarks. Russian Kremlin spokesperson said negotiations with Europeans on the European security system will eventually be necessary, but they are currently unprepared. Russia's Security Council said Starlink and OneWeb satellite services risk destabilising the socio-political situation in sovereign countries, RIA reported. OTHERS Senior Chinese official said China and North Korea should strengthen strategic communication and coordination. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US Non Farm Payrolls (Oct) 165K vs. Exp. 65K (Prev. 60K); 2-month net revisions: +84k. US Unemployment Rate (Oct) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%). US Average Hourly Earnings (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%). US Average Hourly Earnings (Oct YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.2%). US Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Oct) 159K vs. Exp. 64K (Prev. 78K). US Manufacturing Payrolls (Oct) 19K vs. Exp. 5K (Prev. 13K). US Government Payrolls (Oct) 6.0K (Prev. -18.0K). US U-6 Unemployment Rate (Oct) 7.9% (Prev. 7.6%). US Participation Rate (Oct) 61.9% (Prev. 61.8%). US Average Weekly Hours (Oct) 34.4 vs. Exp. 34.4 (Prev. 34.4). US Used Car Prices (Oct MM) 0.5% (Prev. -1.1%). US Used Car Prices (Oct YY) 1.9% (Prev. -0.5%). Canadian Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.7% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.5%). Canadian Employment Change (Oct) -4.7K vs. Exp. 13.6K (Prev. -68.3K). Canadian Full Time Employment Chg (Oct) -18.1K (Prev. -35.4K); Part Time 13.4K (Prev. -32.9K). Canadian Average Hourly Wages (Oct YY) 2.0% (Prev. 2.3%). NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS US White House Economic Director Hassett said there is plenty of room for data centre growth to continue, in a CNBC interview. US House reportedly prepares investigations into Trump's use of Musk's AI chatbot Grok, and probes into Apple, Meta and Musk-led firms, the Washington Post reported. US President Trump said he is "100%" in favour of superintelligence and will work with US states that want to host it. US President Trump intends to keep fundraising for political purposes to retain influence into and after 2028, Axios reported. NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES Lam Research (LRCX) authorised a USD 25bln share buyback. Moderna (MRNA) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.38 (exp. -1.10), Revenue 1.3bln (exp. 890mln); sees FY revenue growth of 15-25%. Vistra (VST) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EBITDA 2.38bln (exp. 2.14bln), Revenue 6.35bln (exp. 6.03bln); raises buyback by USD 1.5bln. Humana (HUM) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.70 (exp. -1.00), Revenue 41bln (exp. 40.87bln); FY adj. EPS at least 9.50 (exp. 9.16). Under Armour (UAA) Q2 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.00 (exp. -0.01), Revenue 1.2bln (exp. 1.23bln); cuts gross margin view to +170-220bps (prev. 220-270bps) on fuel/freight costs. Investors reportedly to discuss an Anthropic (ANT) IPO valuation of USD 1.2-1.3tln. Tesla (TSLA) to wind down Cybertruck production at Gigafactory Texas around mid-2027 to make room for Cybercab; raised Cybertruck Premium AWD price by USD 7,500 to USD 92,490. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Hims & Hers (HIMS) agreed to expand access to Zepbound and Foundayo. Oklo (OKLO) partners with US Forged Rings on domestic manufacturing of large reactor components, with deliveries from 2030. Alphabet (GOOGL) dissolved its stakes in GitLab, Spero Therapeutics and Autolus Therapeutics, per an SEC filing. Protestors attempted to break into a Microsoft (MSFT) data centre in Amsterdam. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Taiwan's national fund to activate market stabilisation measures. China's Cabinet said it must ensure full-year economic targets are met and strengthen the stock market's internal stability; policy-oriented funds should be put to good use. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said markets are determined by various factors and declined to comment on market developments. Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs said authorities are considering removing the cap on IDR conversion under FX retention rules. Japan's Meteorological Agency said a magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck off eastern Kanto, with a maximum JMA seismic intensity of 3. ASIA-PAC DATA Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (Oct/30) 717.06B (Prev. 719.75B). NOTABLE APAC EQUITY HEADLINES Taiwan imposes short selling limit to support its stock market. TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) is reportedly considering expanding into advanced 3D DRAM memory chip manufacturing at the request of Nvidia, The Information reported. Taiwan's Economy Ministry said demand for AI, high-performance computing and cloud services continues to expand. Elon Musk said SoftBank (9984 JT) is defaulting on its turbine orders. Japan's GPIF posted a quarterly loss of JPY 5.3tln, its first in six quarters; domestic bond allocation 26.5% (prev. 25.6%).