Newsquawk デイリー・アジア太平洋オープニングニュース - 2026年11月9日

US President Trump told CNN that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US CENTCOM commenced Task Force Iron Gate, further aiming to weaken Iran's economy. The US and Iran are reportedly close to a breakthrough in negotiations, as Tehran shows willingness to discuss nuclear issues. Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese Inflation (Oct), German Trade Balance (Sep), US NY Fed SCE (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4), Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Nov), BoJ SOO (Oct). Speakers include Fed's Goolsbee, Barkin and BoE Governor Bailey. Supply from the US. Earnings from Take-Two Interactive and UniCredit. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 +0.3% Nasdaq Comp. +1.1% DJIA -0.5% Russell 2000 +0.9% FX DXY +0.7% (102.28) EUR/USD -0.7% (1.1137) USD/JPY +0.6% (158.53) GBP/USD -0.8% (1.3347) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -6+ ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -9 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.859% German 10yr Yield 3.254% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -0.2% Brent Jan'27 -0.4% Spot Gold -0.4% CME Copper -0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin -2.2% Ethereum -4.2% As of 21:45GMT/16:45EST MIDDLE EAST US President Trump told CNN that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He added that further military action would depend on whether Iran agrees to a sufficiently strong deal, while reiterating that the US remains prepared to strike if necessary. US President Trump posted that "Task Force Iron Gate is in full force and effect in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Coupled with history’s greatest Naval Blockade, very little gets into, or out of, Iran!" US President Trump said "Israel and, in fact, the entire Middle East, WOULD NOT EXIST TODAY if I did not stop Iran from having a Nuclear Weapon. Nobody wants to say that, but everybody knows it's true!" US President Trump said the US is talking to Iran and that it is doing well with Iran. The US and Iran are reportedly moving closer to a potential breakthrough in negotiations to end the war, with Tehran showing a willingness to discuss previously off-limits nuclear issues, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Iran is reviewing Qatari-mediated proposals concerning its nuclear programme, with potential concessions seen as a significant step towards an agreement. Iran is reportedly responding positively to the latest mediators' proposal but is awaiting practical confidence-building steps from Washington, according to Al Arabiya citing an Iranian source. The source said measures must be reciprocal and Tehran remains open to negotiations that meet its demands, while Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf faces no restrictions in managing talks. Iran is reportedly reviewing Qatari-mediated proposals to curb its nuclear programme after previously refusing to discuss the issue, according to the Times of Israel citing sources. Proposals reportedly address Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium but stop short of requiring the complete dismantlement of its nuclear programme. Qatar's Emir held a phone call with US President Trump to discuss diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional tensions and strengthen bilateral ties. The Emir emphasised the importance of continued dialogue, preventing further escalation, ensuring freedom of navigation and maintaining the security of energy supplies. Qatar's PM said mediation efforts between the US and Iran are continuing in an attempt to prevent a further escalation of regional tensions, according to Al Jazeera. US CENTCOM said its commander directed the establishment of a task force on November 7 to support US government efforts to prevent Iran from transporting advanced weapons and other materials via ground routes. The US is reportedly planning an intensive and rapid military operation against Iran aimed at securing a nuclear agreement on more favourable terms, according to Al Arabiya citing Israeli media. Iranians are reportedly preparing for a US nuclear attack on Pickaxe Mountain, according to The Times. Iran and Russia are reportedly in discussions over a deal to send advanced S-400 air defence systems to Tehran, The Telegraph reports, citing a senior Iranian official. Recent Russian contacts with Iran were reportedly initiated at Washington's request, with the US asking Moscow to mediate and persuade Tehran to engage in direct talks, according to Al Araby Al Jadeed. An Iraqi delegation reportedly visited Tehran and met Iranian officials to deliver a message from the US, according to Al Hadath citing sources. Iran's Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Bagheri said Iran will no longer accept US commitments on paper alone and must see concrete actions before entering a new round of diplomacy, IRIB reported. An Iranian lawmaker warned that any US-Israeli attack would trigger a large-scale, multi-pronged military response potentially extending to Europe, with oil prices potentially exceeding USD 150/bbl, according to Tasnim. Iran's response will not be simply proportional but will instead be large-scale, multi-pronged and strategic, without regard for geographical considerations. Added that Iran considers the naval blockade an act of war and will retaliate at an appropriate time using prepared weapons. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said the outcome of the US elections requires time to assess before determining next steps, with intermediaries having had no contact in recent days due to the result. He added that conditions will need time to improve before mediation efforts resume, according to IRNA. In other comments, Araghchi said US voters have made their choice and that it is up to the White House to decide, while adding that Iran's "48-hour proposal" remains on the table. US CENTCOM said its forces disabled a St. Kitts-flagged commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman on November 7 after the civilian crew ignored repeated warnings and made multiple attempts to breach the US naval blockade against Iran. Initial reports indicated that two missiles struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, with no official information on potential damage, according to Tasnim News Agency. However, Iranian media suggested that the explosions were related to Iranian military activities, rather than US strikes. Separately, IRNA reported explosions in Iran's Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas, with some sources attributing the sounds to warning shots at violating ships in Hormuz. Furthermore, launches targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly heard from Sirik. Iran's Navy said a tanker transiting a closed zone east of the Strait of Hormuz struck a mine and caught fire after switching off its navigation system, and added that the Strait will remain closed to non-compliant vessels until all threats are removed. Sabereen reported that two oil tankers were on fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, while further reporting that a ship was targeted near the coast of Oman. Tasnim then reported "unconfirmed reports of a US aircraft being targeted off the coast of Oman." Iraq's Foreign Minister Hussein said Iraq had reached an agreement with the US to allow Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz via a channel near Oman, adding that losses from the Iran conflict and export disruptions have reached USD 60bln, according to Al Jazeera. To add, the Foreign Minister said the US asked Iraq to close most land borders with Iran as part of US Treasury measures to pressure Iran's economy. A Saudi Aramco administrative building in Riyadh reportedly sustained limited damage from falling shrapnel amid a fresh wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with no casualties reported, according to the Saudi Energy Ministry and Saudi Press Agency. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis towards Riyadh on Sunday, following reports of loud explosions in the Saudi capital. Yemeni Houthis said they carried out attacks against Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, Saudi Aramco oil storage tanks and the city's financial centre, alongside strikes on Aramco facilities in Buqayq. A military source said Houthi forces have seized strategic positions "overlooking remaining enemy positions in Kahbub", according to Houthi-linked Al-Masirah TV. Houthi-run Yemeni Transport Ministry said international shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all commercial vessels except ships belonging to "the Saudi enemy". Israel's political leadership has not directed the IDF to attack Iran, according to Kan News citing sources. Such a directive could come, and is considered one of the possible alternatives; some even believe it to be the most likely. US aid to Israel reportedly remains under discussion despite President Trump's announcement that assistance would end by year-end, according to i24NEWS citing a source. Israel is seeking to negotiate a gradual phase-out of aid, with discreet talks underway to reach a mutually acceptable arrangement. Israeli President Herzog authorised Gadi Eisenkot to form a new government following the October 27 election. US President Trump reportedly told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a phone call on Thursday that he wants Israel to take steps to implement his Gaza peace plan, according to Axios citing two sources. Israel's Defence Minister Katz said Iran is attempting to revive efforts to acquire nuclear weapons and is undertaking other activities that pose a serious threat to Israel's security, adding that Israel cannot accept such threats. Iraq's Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region was reportedly struck by a drone attack, with smoke observed near the facility, according to sources. Following this, reports highlighted that production has been halted at the field. US TRADE US stocks ended mixed. Tech stocks rallied on Friday, led by a turnaround in AI-related names following Thursday's sharp sell-off, although the sector still has some way to go to recover recent losses. The rebound was accompanied by a stellar US jobs report, which saw the US economy add 165K jobs in October, well above the 65K forecast, while the prior two months were revised higher by a net 84K. The unemployment rate also declined to 4.14% from 4.2%, despite an uptick in participation, while wage growth exceeded expectations. SPX +0.33% at 7,378, NDX +1.35% at 26,990, DJI -0.46% at 51,286, RUT +0.85% at 2,753. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE The US warned China that it must immediately fulfil the terms of the trade truce struck by US President Trump and Chinese President Xi in Busan in October 2025, according to the FT. US officials said China is fulfilling only two-thirds of its rare earth commitments and has failed to increase supply. China's MOFCOM firmly opposed the sanctioning of two Chinese companies and urged the US to promptly correct its mistaken practices and said it reserves the right to take necessary measures and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. Canadian PM Carney said Canada will continue to work with the Americans to get a trade deal that works for Canada. US Treasury Department added eight Canadian firms to its sanctions list for conducting business with Iran. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Williams (voter) said the US economy has remained remarkably resilient amid recent shocks, with growth strengthening, although inflation has been too high for too long. He noted that energy price pressures are emerging as expected, while AI-related price pressures are significant but narrow. He said inflation expectations remain well anchored, wage growth is consistent with the inflation target and it is appropriate to gather more information before further policy decisions. Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) said inflation remains a concern, although inflation expectations are anchored at levels consistent with the 2% target. He noted that consumption and investment are growing rapidly amid an optimistic outlook, while excess inflation is being driven by energy shocks and AI infrastructure investment. Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said inflation remains too high and stubborn, requiring further monetary policy tightening, although the timing and extent of additional hikes will depend on incoming data. She backed September's rate hike and the subsequent hold, noting policy is only slightly restrictive to neutral and not yet sufficiently restrictive. She said a strong labour market gives the Fed room to tackle inflation, while wage growth remains subdued and real wages are falling. She noted AI-related market repricing has been orderly and could modestly weigh on growth, but she is not concerned about a substantial economic slowdown. White House Economic Director Hassett said there is ample room for data centre growth, although concerns over an AI bubble are warranted and the US economy could remain strong even if data centre expansion slows. He expects inflation to decelerate and respects the judgement of Fed Chair Warsh. He said Trump is pleased with the Intel (INTC) deal and welcomed the company's turnaround, despite recent setbacks across the chip sector. US House Democrats are reportedly mulling the future of the select panel on US-China competition, Semafor reported citing sources. Focus could now broaden to other foreign actors. The US House is reportedly preparing investigations into US President Trump's use of Musk's AI chatbot Grok and probes into Apple (AAPL), Meta (META) and Musk-led firms over recent controversial actions, The Washington Post reported citing sources. Nvidia's (NVDA) Board initiated an independent investigation following reports that CEO Jensen Huang has been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. To add, in a memo to staff, the CEO apologised for his affair and said he is fully cooperating with the investigation. Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly winding down its Oracle (ORCL) deal to rent AI cloud capacity, according to Bloomberg. Anthropic is reportedly proceeding with plans for an IPO before US Thanksgiving, targeting proceeds of USD 80-100bln at a valuation of USD 1.25-1.75tln, below the USD 2tln sought by its most bullish investors, according to the FT citing investors. Investors are reportedly set to discuss Anthropic (ANT) IPO value of USD 1.2-1.3tln, according to reports. Anthropic reportedly agreed to purchase commitments for 1.7GW of gas-fired generators from OnePWR Solutions for USD 3.4bln in September to support data centre power requirements, according to the FT. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC they are raising at a USD 1.25tln valuation and OpenAI will keep investing in AI data centres despite election results. Following this, Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that OpenAI secured c. USD 11bln in initial funding as part of a financing round valuing the company at USD 1.25tln. US House Democratic Leader Jeffries said Defence Secretary Hegseth has abused his power and undermined national security over the Iran war, which he claims has driven up prices and made the US less safe. He added House Democrats will discuss a potential resolution on Tuesday. NORTH AMERICAN DATA RECAP US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) 165K vs. Exp. 65K (Prev. 60K); 2-month net revisions: +84K (Prev. -60K). US Unemployment Rate (Oct) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%). US Average Hourly Earnings (Oct YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.2%). US Average Hourly Earnings (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%). US Participation Rate (Oct) 61.9% (Prev. 61.8%). US Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Oct) 159K vs. Exp. 64K (Prev. 78K). US Manufacturing Payrolls (Oct) 19K vs. Exp. 5K (Prev. 13K). US CES Total nonfarm net birth-death (Oct): 412K (Prev. -190K). US U-6 Unemployment Rate (Oct) 7.9% (Prev. 7.6%). US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Nov) 51.0 vs. Exp. 48 (Prev. 48.0). US Michigan Consumer Expectations Prelim. (Nov) 50.9 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 48.8). US Michigan Current Conditions Prelim. (Nov) 51.0 vs. Exp. 48 (Prev. 46.7). US Michigan Inflation Expectations Prelim. (Nov) 4.3% (Prev. 4.7%). US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prelim. (Nov) 3.4% (Prev. 3.5%). Canadian Employment Change (Oct) -4.7K vs. Exp. 13.6K (Prev. -68.3K). Canadian Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.7% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.5%). Canadian Part Time Employment Change (Oct) 13.4K (Prev. -32.9K). Canadian Full Time Employment Change (Oct) -18.1K (Prev. -35.4K). Canadian Participation Rate (Oct) 64.8% (Prev. 64.8%). Canadian Ivey PMI s.a. (Oct) 58.3 vs. Exp. 58 (Prev. 58.2). COMMODITIES Baker Hughes Rig Count: Oil +1 at 463, Natgas +1 at 131, Total +1 at 604. At least four oil companies are reportedly seeking US government licences to purchase or lease sanctioned oil tankers in an effort to ease vessel shortages and lower oil prices, according to Bloomberg citing sources. The China Enterprise Reform and Development Society said China is expected to invest USD 940bln in energy in 2026, CCTV reported. The PBoC added 830K ounces of gold to its reserves in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months. Kazakhstan's central bank Deputy Governor said the bank plans to reduce the share of its reserves held in gold to below 75% over the medium term. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's delegation to talks in the UAE beginning Tuesday will reportedly be led by presidential aide Medinsky and include Deputy Foreign Ministers Ryabkov and Galuzin, military intelligence chief Kostyukov and senior General Staff officer Zhigarlovsky, according to Interfax citing Kremlin spokesman Peskov. A Kremlin spokesperson said negotiations with European countries on the European security system would eventually be necessary, but European countries are currently unprepared, Interfax reported. Additionally, the spokesperson said there are no details about the peace agreement mentioned by US President Trump. France's Foreign Minister said European countries will send a strong delegation to the Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi. Russian Defence Ministry said its forces conducted drone strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and vessels supporting Ukrainian forces, hitting a dry-cargo ship carrying military equipment off Odesa, a container ship transporting dual-use goods at Chornomorsk port and the 330kV Kamyanska substation in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine's operations targeting the Russian oil refining sector are ongoing in response to attacks on its energy facilities, Al Jazeera reported. Ukraine reportedly targeted Russia's Saratov oil refinery (140K BPD) in the Volga region, Bloomberg reported citing sources. Naftogaz said a facility in central Ukraine has been struck three times, damaging equipment and causing a large-scale fire. IAEA said power has been restored to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. OTHER Senior Chinese official said China and North Korea should strengthen strategic communication and coordination, according to state media. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES BoJ Governor Ueda said Japan's underlying inflation is around 2%, with wage growth consistent with the target, although 2% inflation has yet to become a firmly established social norm. He expects headline CPI, currently around 3%, to rise further into early 2027 amid energy price pressures, while underlying inflation should remain near 2%, with some upside risks. He noted uncertainty over the sustainability of the wage-inflation equilibrium and the extent of future domestic investment. He said unconventional monetary policy tools may be needed again in response to severe shocks, although they are imperfect substitutes for conventional rate cuts. He added that AI is providing a positive demand shock and could help address Japan's labour shortages. TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) is reportedly considering expanding into advanced memory chip manufacturing, according to sources cited by The Information. Sources added that TSMC recently started drawing up plans for making a specific type of advanced memory chip, 3D DRAM, at the request of Nvidia (NVDA). China's NDRC flagged weak domestic demand as a key economic challenge, with Director Zheng Shanjie pledging measures to boost private investment, advance major projects, strengthen economic monitoring and develop further policy proposals for next year. China's State Council called for measures to ensure full-year economic targets are met, effective use of policy-oriented funds, stronger stock market stability and sustained economic development, according to state media. Taiwan's FSC announced short-selling restrictions, effective November 9, cutting the intraday short-sale limit for borrowed securities to 3% of average daily trading volume (prev. 30%) and raising minimum margin requirements to 130% (prev. 90%). The Finance Ministry said it is prepared to deploy its TWD 500bln stock market stabilisation fund. New Zealand PM Luxon's National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes had been counted, enough for a majority, although the result could change following the counting of special ballots and the opposition has yet to concede. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES BoE Governor Bailey said he does not believe inflation has become entrenched, but warned the likelihood of at least one further rate hike is reasonably high if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved and energy prices stay elevated. He noted private sector wage growth is at the upper end of the range consistent with the inflation target. BoE's Pill said the MPC lacked specific evidence of second-round inflation effects, but pre-emptive rate hikes are consistent with its approach amid pipeline energy price pressures. He noted there is no preset path for rates next year, with a hold or even a cut possible if economic growth stalls. He said the key determinant will be how companies respond to margin pressures, while the outlook is expected to become more uncertain from spring. ECB President Lagarde told Yomiuri Shimbun that headline inflation in October was higher than the ECB had expected a few months ago but was in line with market expectations, adding that inflation would remain elevated in the coming quarters. She reiterated that they currently do not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in their projections. She highlighted that it is not appropriate to pre-empt inflation forecasts but noted that the energy futures curve has risen since the ECB's September projections. She reiterated the ECB's data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Regarding the potential use of TPI, she said the ECB has multiple tools at its disposal. ECB's Lane said inflation needs to be back to target in a year or two. Fiscal policy has been more expansionary than expected this year, but is expected to be less so in the coming years. Regarding December, Lane said now is the time to gather information. The Eurogroup said Spain's de Cos and the Netherlands' Knot are candidates to become the next ECB President. ECB presidential candidate de Cos told Tagesanzeiger that second-round effects haven't appeared so far but vigilance is needed regarding inflation risks. ECB is said to be considering a review of bank loans to data centres, according to Bloomberg. The EU and the UK are reportedly in the final stages of an agreement to link their emissions trading systems, with an announcement expected at a summit later this month, according to Bloomberg sources. The deal would allow cross-border trading of carbon permits, boost market liquidity and reduce carbon border taxes for companies, with negotiators having agreed on emissions caps, supply controls and free permits. Council of the EU agreed on a position to delay EU methane rules by one year, according to the Irish Presidency. Morningstar DBRS confirmed Germany at AAA; trend stable. S&P revised Poland's outlook to negative; affirmed "A-/A-2" foreign currency ratings; lowered local currency ratings to "A-/A-2". EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European Retail Sales (Sep MM) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.4%). European Retail Sales (Sep YY) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.3%). German Industrial Production (Sep MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 2.0%). UK Lloyds House Price Index (Oct YY) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.1%). UK Lloyds House Price Index (Oct MM) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%).