Newsquawk 欧州デイリー・オープニングニュース - 2026年10月27日

Iranian Deputy Security Chief Bagheri Kani said Iran is open to a shorter US proposal timeline if conditions are met, according to state TV. APAC stocks were mixed, with tech stocks supported by the rebound stateside; European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash open. DXY took a breather, GBP/USD lacked direction ahead of Wednesday's UK Budget, USD/JPY stayed afloat. UST futures edged higher ahead of the FOMC, tech earnings and PCE data this week, while Bund futures rebounded ahead of German supply. Crude futures pulled back amid limited fresh catalysts and no major geopolitical escalation, while spot gold traded sideways above USD 4,000/oz. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Durable Goods (Sep), Richmond Fed Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Index (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Israeli legislative election for the Knesset. Supply from UK, Italy, Germany & US. Earnings from SoFi, Coca-Cola, UPS, Corning, PayPal, Boeing, S&P Global, Robinhood, Seagate, Visa, SK Hynix. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 +1.9% ASX 200 +0.5% Hang Seng -0.7% Shanghai Comp -0.5% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 -0.3% DAX Dec'26 -0.2% ES Dec'26 U/C NQ Dec'26 -0.2% FX DXY +0.1% (102.08) EUR/USD -0.1% (1.1168) USD/JPY +0.1% (157.73) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3333) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +4 ticks Bund Dec'26 +21 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.97% German 10yr Yield 3.37% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -0.8% Brent Jan'27 -0.7% Spot Gold -0.2% LME Copper +0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.2% Ethereum -0.5% As of 06:15GMT / 02:15EDT LOOKING AHEAD Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN/MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary General Rezaei said security in West Asia must be devoid of foreign interference, following the conclusion of quadrilateral talks involving Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Tehran, according to Press TV. Iranian Deputy Security Chief Bagheri Kani said Iran is open to a shorter US proposal timeline if conditions are met, according to state TV. Iranian security official said regarding Israel that Iran is completely ready and waiting for the first spark, and in the event of the slightest aggression, it will implement a response at the same level as these threats with unprecedented speed and intensity. UKMTO received multiple third-party reports of a vessel on fire 63NM southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq. An explosion was heard in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Naya. Saudi-led coalition intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at the eastern region, while it also intercepted four drones launched by Yemen's Houthis towards the southern region. Saudi sources reported explosions in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia, while air operations were suspended at King Fahd International Airport in Dammam. Houthi militia leader Akram Ali Harishi and several of his companions were killed in an airstrike in Al-Zahari, Al-Mukha District, west of Taiz in Yemen Houthi missiles were launched from Al-Hasha in Al-Dhale' towards Aden and Bab al-Mandab. Arab sources reported bombing of the Wazan area in Yemen's Taiz province by Saudi fighter jets. Syria closed the Nassib border crossing with Jordan after Jordanian airstrikes in Daraa. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks started the week on the front foot, with semiconductors leading a tentative recovery from the recent AI-driven sell-off. Neoclouds managed to recover and gain despite initial pressure after Elon Musk said debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centres. Despite the AI rally, AI funding remained in focus. Meta (META -1.9%) launched a USD 35bln equity offering with a further USD 60bln ATM sale planned to fund its infrastructure build-out, and Anthropic’s S-1 revealed over USD 280bln in compute commitments with SpaceX and Broadcom. The S-1 was viewed positively, on a cash and balance sheet basis as of June 30th 2026; total assets were USD 147.358bln vs total liabilities of USD 117.467bln. SPX +0.71% at 7,678, NDX +1.09% at 20,273, DJI +0.29% at 52,364, RUT +0.40% at 2,787. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US and Canada are working on a deal to ease US tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports, according to reports. However, it was separately reported that a US-Canada trade deal is likely not as imminent as US officials indicated over the weekend, according to Semafor citing sources. USTR Greer issued a statement regarding the status of the US-EU deal to pause duties on certain EU imports, while he stated that European Investment Bank loans to Airbus may be a violation of the US-EU trade truce and it is important that the situation is resolved as soon as possible. NOTABLE HEADLINES US President Trump posted "The Trump Administration is proud to announce a 250 MILLION DOLLAR PLUS initiative to RECRUIT and RETAIN Nurses for Nursing Homes!" US appeals court denied the Trump administration's request to stop California from counting mail ballots from alleged non-citizens. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with strength seen in tech stocks following the outperformance in the sector stateside as it recovered from the recent AI-led sell-off and with Anthropic filing for an IPO. ASX 200 clawed back initial losses with the index led higher by the commodity-related sectors, but with gains capped as defensives and consumer stocks lagged. Nikkei 225 was underpinned by the tech-related momentum, with SoftBank among the biggest gainers owing to its stake in Anthropic and as it explores AI and digital infrastructure opportunities in Malaysia. KOSPI outperformed and triggered a sidecar amid the tech strength and stronger-than-expected GDP. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the PBoC's liquidity boost, with today's open market operations totalling more than CNY 1.4tln, while continued double-digit percentage growth in YTD Industrial Profits also failed to inspire, as participants await earnings releases and with HSBC shares pressured after its results missed expectations. In addition, trade frictions lingered as the EU plans to impose import restrictions on Chinese chemicals and furniture. US equity futures held on to recent spoils following the tech-led advances on Wall St. European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Monday. FX DXY took a breather after gradually strengthening on Monday as currency-specific newsflow remained light, and with participants awaiting this week's scheduled risk events, including the FOMC, BoJ and ECB meetings, the UK Budget, US PCE and three Mag-7 earnings reports. As such, the focus so far has been on geopolitics and AI sentiment, while ING wrote that the balance of risks suggests the dollar can probably hold onto its gains, and that, barring some clearly underwhelming Q3 results from the likes of Alphabet and Microsoft, higher energy prices and a hawkish Fed can keep the dollar supported this week. EUR/USD lingered around the prior day's trough after recently dipping beneath the 1.1200 level amid relatively quiet newsflow from the bloc and with the ECB expected to stand pat on rates later in the week. GBP/USD lacked direction after trickling lower yesterday, although downside was limited ahead of the looming Budget announcement, with Chancellor Healey to announce plans to increase the minimum wage by nearly 4%, while slowing the rise for younger workers, amid fears young people were being priced out of jobs. USD/JPY kept afloat after recently climbing back above the 157.00 level owing to the firmer buck and amid the rally in Japanese stocks, while participants continue to await the Fed and BoJ policy meetings. Antipodeans outperformed amid a surge in tech stocks and ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ rate decision, with money markets pricing an over 93% likelihood that the central bank delivers its third consecutive rate hike. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7171 vs exp. 6.6731 (prev. 6.7162) FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures gradually edged higher, but with the upside capped after recent curve flattening and as markets await the FOMC, tech earnings, and PCE data, while the latest US 5yr note auction is scheduled later. Bund futures rebounded following recent whipsawing through the 122.00 level, while supply looms with a EUR 5bln Schatz issuance due today followed by EUR 5.5bln of Bunds tomorrow. 10yr JGB futures were contained as stocks rallied in Tokyo and after Services PPI data matched estimates, while slightly improved demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs failed to spur a recovery. COMMODITIES Crude futures pulled back following the prior day's choppy performance amid few fresh catalysts and as several macro risk events loom, while attention remains on geopolitics with no major escalation, although Saudi and Houthi strikes continue, and there were further reports of explosions heard in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump is to ease oil well methane curbs in a bid to lower costs. Spot gold traded sideways with the precious metal confined to within tight parameters above the USD 4,000/oz level as participants await the approaching central bank meetings. Copper futures gradually edged higher alongside the tech-related momentum in stocks. CRYPTO Bitcoin marginally retreated with prices dipping back beneath the USD 80,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES PBoC injected CNY 412bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.4% and injected CNY 1tln via overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%. DATA RECAP Chinese Industrial Profits (Sep YY) 14.4% (Prev. 4.2%) Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Sep YY) 15.5% (Prev. 15.7%) Japanese Services Producer Price Index (Sep YY) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%) South Korean GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 QQ) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%) South Korean GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.7%) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukrainian President Zelensky said there are casualties and wounded in an attack on an educational institution in Kyiv and that artificial delays in supplying Ukraine with air defences are helping terrorism. Kyiv's mayor said the southern bridge and subway were damaged in an attack. Explosions were reported at a Russian ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk after a Ukrainian strike. Russian Defence Ministry said Russia suspended strikes on Ukraine's Kherson as a ceasefire began in Oleshky. EU foreign policy chief Kallas said further sanctions on Russia were in the works. OTHER Taiwan considers drone swarms as a defence measure against Beijing's grey-zone operations, according to South China Morning Post. Switzerland is to restore its relations with North Korea, while Switzerland's Foreign Minister is to travel to North Korea this week for political talks and an official reopening of Switzerland's diplomatic office in Pyongyang. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Chancellor Healey unveiled five everyday fixes to ease household costs, support working families and end the Carer’s Allowance cliff edge ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, according to the government. UK Chancellor Healey will announce plans to increase the minimum wage by nearly 4% while slowing the rise for younger workers, following warnings that young people were being priced out of jobs, according to The Times. DATA RECAP UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Oct) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.4%)