今週の注目点 – 2026年11月9～13日：米CPI、中国インフレ、英国GDP、日銀「主な意見」、ニュージーランド総選挙など

MON: Eurogroup Meeting, ECOFIN Meeting, COP31 (9-20 Nov), Chinese Inflation (Oct), German Balance of Trade (Sep), Mexican CPI (Oct) TUE: BoJ SOO (Oct), BoC Minutes (Oct), Riksbank Minutes (Nov), BCB Minutes (Nov), EIA STEO (Nov), US-China trade truce measures originally due to expire (reportedly extended to 10 Jan 2027), Chinese Balance of Trade (Oct), Norwegian CPI (Oct), French Unemployment Rate (Q3), US CPI (Oct) WED: Holiday: US Veterans Day (Bond Market Closed; Equities Open), Holiday: Canadian Remembrance Day (Bond Market Closed; Equities Open), OPEC MOMR (Nov), German Final CPI (Oct), Italian Industrial Production (Sep) THU: UK GDP (Q3/Sep), Swedish Final CPIF (Oct), Indian CPI (Oct), US Monthly Budget Statement (Oct) FRI: IEA OMR (Nov), Informal Meeting of EU Leaders (Dublin), Fitch Credit Review on Germany, S&P Credit Review on Italy, EZ GDP 2nd Estimate & Employment (Q3), EZ Balance of Trade (Sep), French Final CPI (Oct), Spanish Final CPI (Oct), US PPI (Oct) WEEK AHEAD NEW ZEALAND ELECTION (SAT): Since advanced voting began, opinion polls have been split between a very modest National Party (NAT) lead and a slightly larger Labour lead, though all within or close to the margin of error. Polling points to a very fragmented outcome, with the major parties on at best around 30% of the total vote, and the likely coalitions on either side projected to be on at best 61 seats, shy of the 64 required due to overhang for a majority. As such, the Opportunity party could be the kingmaker; but, they have ruled out working with NAT, and as such the skew is marginally to the Labour-led coalition at this point, with economic read across of further borrowing and spending as a result. CHINESE INFLATION (MON): Chinese CPI inflation is expected to ease to 0.8% Y/Y in October (prev. 0.9%), while PPI is forecast to fall 5.4% Y/Y (prev. -5.0%), signalling continued weakness in domestic demand and deepening factory-gate deflation. Markets will assess whether recent policy support is beginning to feed through to consumer prices, as subdued consumption and excess industrial capacity continue to weigh on inflation. A softer-than-expected release could strengthen calls for further monetary and fiscal support, while a sharper PPI contraction could reinforce concerns over underlying industrial demand. BOJ SUMMARY OF OPINIONS (TUE): The BoJ will release its Summary of Opinions from the October meeting, when the Bank held rates at 1.25% following September's hike. Markets will focus on the extent to which policymakers believe underlying inflation has reached the 2% target and whether members see a need for further near-term tightening. Traders will also assess any discussion of the timing and pace of future hikes, particularly after Governor Ueda reiterated that further tightening remains warranted if the economic and inflation outlook develops as expected. BOC MINUTES (TUE): The BoC hiked rates by 25bps as expected, a pre-emptive move aimed at preventing second-round effects from higher energy prices and the de-anchoring of inflation expectations. The central bank pointed towards higher inflation and economic growth projections than seen in the July MPR, leaving open the possibility of further tightening, although, given the uncertainties, the Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully. The main arguments for the rate hike were higher energy prices, the expectation that they will persist and building cost pressures. Meanwhile, the main argument for holding was that the rise in inflation has so far been concentrated in energy prices and in services that rely heavily on energy inputs; additionally, economic slack remains, and new US tariffs will weigh on growth. The neutral rate estimate range was kept at 2.25-3.25%, leaving the current 2.5% closer to the midpoint. In the press conference, Governor Macklem said rates are low enough not to restrain economic growth and that inflation is looking less likely to be well contained. The minutes will be an account of the latest meeting so will likely not incorporate recent developments like the Democratic mid-term sweep and the subsequent drop in oil prices. However, we will be looking to the minutes to view the arguments among the committee for future hikes. CHINESE BALANCE OF TRADE (TUE): China's trade surplus is expected to narrow to USD 126.50bln in October (prev. USD 133.53bln), with the CNY surplus forecast at CNY 859.0bln (prev. CNY 905.97bln). Markets will focus on whether export growth moderates following September's 36.3% Y/Y surge, partly driven by front-loading ahead of potential trade restrictions, while import figures will be scrutinised for further indications of the strength of domestic demand. NORWEGIAN CPI (TUE): Norges Bank projects CPI Y/Y will come in at 3.8% in October, and the core (ATE) figure at 2.7% Y/Y, from 3.4% and 3.0% respectively. While the headline is expected to tick higher, the November Norges Bank announcement implied that the current 4.5% policy rate is likely the peak for this cycle, though the risks are hawkish, with rates expected to remain at that elevated level for the foreseeable future, i.e. potentially into 2028. US CPI (TUE) / US PPI (FRI): The consensus expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% M/M in October (prev. 0.6%), while core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.3%). Note that the BLS will not publish Y/Y CPI figures owing to the October 2025 government shutdown, when the inflation data were not released. Elsewhere, PPI is expected to rise 0.4% M/M (prev. 1.3%), with the annual rate seen rising to 6.6% Y/Y (prev. 6.3%), while core PPI is expected to rise 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.7%). The data will help inform expectations for October PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due on 25th November. Analysts suggest risks to core CPI are skewed to the upside; Bloomberg recently launched a new core price index, which is currently tracking a 0.33% M/M rise in October. However, Pantheon Macroeconomics says the increase is being flattered by a 3.8% jump in lodging prices (contributing 5bps), as well as a 0.9% rise in airline fares (contributing 1bp), components which Pantheon considers unreliable. In terms of the drivers, headline inflation is expected to moderate as gasoline's contribution fades, while core inflation should be restrained by softer shelter costs, with vacancies at their highest since 2014 limiting rent growth, alongside softer used car prices. However, upside risks remain as the earlier surge in energy prices feeds through to freight, transportation and core goods prices, while subscription services, computers, postage and courier fees have also seen price increases. Regarding monetary policy implications, Barclays forecasts headline CPI rising 0.24% M/M and core CPI increasing 0.22% M/M, which the bank estimates would translate into a 0.21% M/M rise in core PCE in October. Barclays' baseline remains for the FOMC to hike rates by 25bps in December. Money markets are currently pricing a 75% probability of a December rate hike, up from 64% this morning before the strong October jobs report and equity rebound, although pricing had been closer to 90% before the AI stock rout and Democratic sweep. UK GDP (THU): August’s series was flattered somewhat by upward revisions to the services components, while the month’s actual activity was modest. For September, the BoE’s latest quarterly forecasts imply unchanged activity in the period. While of course pertinent, the main focus now is on the timeliest price data for any insight into the pipeline of pressures Governor Bailey spoke about during November’s BoE, points which will be used to assess whether the likely follow-up hike is going to be in December or February. WEEK IN REVIEW CHINESE NPC STANDING COMMITTEE (MON-FRI): China's NPC Standing Committee backed further support for domestic financial markets, with authorities outlining plans for Central Huijin to act as a "quasi-stabilisation fund" to support equities during periods of market stress. PBoC Governor Pan also reiterated plans to expand monetary policy tools and encourage more medium- and long-term capital flows into the stock market. Overall, the meeting reinforced Beijing's willingness to provide a backstop for Chinese assets, but offered little indication of a broader fiscal stimulus push. US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MON): The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 from 54.5, above the 54.6 forecast. New Orders rose to 55.5 from 55.3. Production rose 2.3 points to 59.0, the highest since November 2021. Backlog of Orders fell 1.8 points to 54.6, while the Supplier Deliveries Index edged up 0.1 points to 59.1 (a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries, which can reflect stronger demand or supply constraints). Regarding employment and prices, the Employment Index eased to 52.4 from 52.7, while the Prices Index declined to 75.2 from 77.9. Within the report, general sentiment deteriorated for a third consecutive month, with 34% of comments positive and 66% negative. Among negative comments, pricing volatility was mentioned in 62%, longer lead times in 41%, tariffs in 25%, and the Iran war in 21%, with most comments citing multiple factors. Regarding growth in the manufacturing economy, 6% of the sector's GDP contracted in October, compared with 2% in September, while 6% was in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI of 45 or lower), also up from 2% in September. Following the report and construction spending data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 was revised up to 3.7% from its initial 3.2% estimate. ING writes that "The manufacturing sector continues to power ahead, boosted by a strong US economy. Other factors are supportive. There is a clear split in performance between fast-growing tech, pharma and transportation sectors versus more labour-intensive, commoditised sectors. Construction activity suggests interest-rate-sensitive sectors are struggling". RBA ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate by 25bps to an 18-year high of 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote. The bank removed explicit guidance on further increases, signalling a potential December pause. At her post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock also signalled a potential pause, though retained the option of further tightening amid persistent inflation. On the vote split, Bullock said dissenting policymakers placed greater weight on downside economic risks and saw less evidence of accelerating wage growth than staff forecasts suggested; they were also more confident that slower economic growth would prevent elevated inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. After the meeting, analysts at Westpac wrote that while risks are still skewed to the upside, it is sticking with its existing base case that this is likely the peak of the cycle. There was ultimately a dovish reaction to the RBA rate hike, given that the central bank stopped short of signalling a further increase for the next meeting in December. US MID-TERM ELECTIONS (TUE): The Democratic sweep came to fruition, with the democrats gaining seven seats from the republicans to leave the senate composition at D 54 vs R 44, plus two independents, who caucus with the Democrats. In the House, the Democrats gained 41 seats from the Republicans, leaving the current composition at D 253 vs R 157, albeit 25 races are still uncalled – nonetheless, the Democrats have the majority in the House. The market reaction has been a choppy one – stocks rallied on the Wednesday before crashing on the Thursday with many AI, chip and memory related stocks giving up a lot of their recent strength on fears of enhanced democratic AI regulation and a slowdown of the strong growth we have been used to. The Dollar has been sold on the growth concerns and yields have been dropping for the same reason, but also on the likelihood of less expenditure and tax cuts from the Republicans being able to pass congress, including reconciliation 3.0. Crude prices have plummeted on the reduced probability of an extended US/Iran war, although reporting has gradually been shifting to another strike from the US on Iran – perhaps over the weekend or next week. Negotiations between US and Iran through mediators appeared to have made progress, but the latest suggests sticking points remain. SWISS CPI (TUE): Came in hotter-than-expected by both the market and the SNB’s Q4 average view. Printing at 1.5% Y/Y, market consensus 1.3% and SNB quarterly view of 1.2%; though, it remains within the SNB’s 0-2% target band. Upside was driven primarily by imported prices, with the energy related components the primary driver. For the SNB, this print does not change the narrative into December, however, further above forecast inflation and particularly if it approaches the 2% level could see a re-assessment of the on-hold view. RIKSBANK ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): 25bps hike as expected to 2.00%. The statement outlined that if the economy develops as forecast, further tightening will likely be appropriate in the coming year. November’s move was justified by the view that inflation is expected to continue rising ahead, though developments have largely been as expected. Overall, the meeting sparked little reaction with the main takeaway being that market expectations for a Q1/Q2 hike to a 2.25% terminal remain reasonable; though, recent energy downside and an accompanying global yield pullback could see a revision to that view, if the narrative continues into December’s MPR. US QUARTERLY TREASURY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The Quarterly Refunding Announcement saw the US Treasury offer USD 125bln of securities to refund approximately USD 97bln of privately held notes and bonds maturing on November 15th, raising new cash of approximately USD 28bln. Auction sizes (nominal coupons, TIPS and FRNs) were left unchanged, but the guidance was tweaked: “Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the next several quarters.” Dropping the “at least” language from the prior guidance implies a change is coming, likely sometime in 2027, with the TBAC minutes suggesting increases would likely be appropriate in H2 2027. The statement offered little detail on the shape of those changes, which weighed on the long end, with yields rising further. The TBAC minutes, however, noted that members generally agreed additional issuance should be concentrated in the 2- to 10-year sector, and included a meaningful discussion of potential future changes to 20-year and 30-year issuance. This potentially signals a shift away from the long end, which is expensive given a steeper curve, towards the front end and belly. On buybacks, Treasury plans to purchase up to USD 70bln of off-the-run securities for liquidity support and up to USD 25bln in the 1-month to 2-year bucket for cash management. The liquidity support total is unchanged from the current pace following the enhanced buyback announcement, with the tentative schedule setting long-end operations at USD 6bln each, against prior guidance of “at least USD 4bln.” That matches the size of current long-end operations. US ISM SERVICES PMI (WED): The US ISM Services PMI fell to 54.5 from 54.9, below the 54.8 forecast. Within the report, business activity dropped to 53.8 from 56.5, while new orders declined to 55.9 from 59.8. Meanwhile, the employment and prices indices provided some encouragement: prices remained elevated at 73.0 but eased from 74.0, while employment rose to 51.4 from 50.1. Summarising respondents' comments, the general theme was that activity is holding up, but rising fuel, freight and tariff costs, alongside labour constraints, are pressuring margins and making planning more difficult. In turn, Oxford Economics writes that the simultaneous increase in order backlogs (58.0 from 56.6) and longer supplier deliveries (56.7 from 53.2) suggests that broader supply-chain stress, in addition to elevated energy prices, is contributing to price pressures. The report also noted that the historical relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that a headline reading of 54.5 corresponds to a 2.0% increase in real GDP on an annualised basis. Following the release, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 was lowered to 3.4% from 3.7%. EZ FLASH CPI (WED): HICP Y/Y lifted to 4% in October, upside driven by marked strength in the energy component which hit 20.8% (prev. 18.9%) as the month’s pressures made themselves known into the winter period. However, while the headline is very elevated and well above target, the core figures remained at the prior level for the measures that excluded energy, providing evidence that second round effects are not yet driving inflation in the EZ. BOE ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): As expected, a 25bps hike. The rest of the announcement was not as expected, as the decision to hike was unanimous with even the arch-doves Dhingra and Taylor supporting the increase, while activist Mann favoured a larger 50bps increase. A move justified by the degree of inflationary pressures in the pipeline from the Middle East/energy situation, and expectations for more price pressures through things such as the Ofgem cap increase. Ahead, the statements point to a majority being in favour of another move, with Governor Bailey making clear that unless there is significant progress on the Middle East another hike is the likely outcome. Albeit, Bailey acknowledged the marked action seen in the last 48-72hrs, but said a hike would likely still have occurred even factoring this in. But, while the path of least resistance is to further tightening, a marked moderation of the Middle East situation could remove the need for this, though the base case is another increase and the debate is now between December and February for that. NORGES BANK ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): Maintained the policy rate at 4.50%, as expected. The accompanying statement reiterated that the current level will likely be required “for a time” to get inflation sustainably back to target, and also retained tightening optionality, if merited. Overall, no change to policy or update to the path, as expected, with 4.5% now very likely the peak for this cycle, particularly if recent energy/yield developments are sustained. BANXICO POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): Banxico surprised analysts with a 25bps rate cut on Thursday, taking the overnight interbank rate target to 6.25% from 6.50%. The decision was not unanimous, however, with Borja and Heath voting to leave rates unchanged. On inflation, the Board judged that the disinflation process is continuing and assessed that, under prevailing conditions of economic slack, the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to consumer prices would be limited. It noted that no demand-side inflationary pressures are currently perceived in the economy, while the existing degree of monetary restriction continues to operate. The Board characterised the rate cut as a one-time adjustment and introduced new forward guidance, stating: “Looking ahead, the Governing Board considers that maintaining the reference rate at the attained level for an extended period will support the convergence of inflation to its target and will be adequate to face the challenges posed by the external macroeconomic environment”. US JOBS REPORT: The US jobs report was very strong, with headline payrolls jumping to 165k from an upwardly revised 60k, well above the expected 65k. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2% (exp. 4.2%), while the participation rate rose to 61.9% (prev. & exp. 61.8%). Wages were also hotter than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% M/M (exp. & prev. 0.3%), while the Y/Y rate eased to 3.1% from 3.2%, but remained noticeably above the 2.9% consensus. Looking at the breakdown, private payrolls rose 159k (exp. 64k, prev. 78k), while manufacturing added 19k (exp. 5k, prev. 13k). All in all, the report gives the Fed further room to hike. With policymakers already focused on the inflation side of their mandate, the data reinforce the picture of a resilient labour market, easing immediate concerns about employment weakness. Money markets now price a 75% chance of a 25bps hike in December, up from 63% earlier on Friday. Pantheon Macroeconomics retains its forecast for a 25bps rate hike in December, reflecting the likely near-term increase in inflation as higher energy costs feed through to core goods prices. However, Pantheon sees a prolonged tightening cycle as unnecessary given tighter financial conditions and a potentially growing drag from AI. It expects no further Fed tightening next year, followed by 75bps of easing by the end of 2027. CANADIAN JOBS REPORT (FRI): The Canadian labour market report was weak, with employment falling by 5k in October, below the forecast for a 14k increase and extending recent declines following a 68k drop in September and a 42k fall in August. The October decline was driven by full-time employment, which fell by 18k following a 35k drop previously, while part-time employment provided a partial offset, rising by 13k after a 33k decline. The unemployment rate also disappointed, rising to 6.7% from 6.5%, against expectations for an unchanged reading of 6.5%, while the participation rate was unchanged. Last week, the BoC hiked rates by 25bps, as expected, describing the move as pre-emptive and aimed at preventing second-round inflation effects. The accompanying statement made little reference to the labour market but signalled a cautious approach ahead, while the latest employment report reinforces the case for patience regarding further rate hikes.