Newsquawk欧州市場総括 - 2026年10月30日

Qatari mediators are in Tehran to convey tweaks to the US peace proposal; Trump says the Iran war will end very soon, one way or another. European bourses were mostly lower, with the FTSE 100 supported by AZN LN and BP/ LN; US indices lower, led by the Nasdaq 100 after AMZN and INTC earnings. Crude benchmarks were firmer, after rebounding overnight as focus remained on a potential resumption of US strikes on Iran after the midterms. EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) are set to end the final trading session of the week mostly in the red, with the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) and SMI (+0.3%) the only indices eking out slight gains. The weakness seems to be mostly a by-product of a selloff in the US (see more below). Sectors lacked a clear bias. Media topped the sector pile, closely followed by Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Health Care. The sector laggard was Basic Resources, with Banks and Tech rounding out the underperformers. Key movers included: AstraZeneca +5.9%, adj. EPS and revenue beat and announced a cost-saving plan; BP +0.2%, net debt printed better than expected; Sanofi, raised its FY profit forecast; Puma +6.3%, narrowed its 2026 operating loss guidance; BT +6.6%, the FT reported that Virgin Media O2 is close to a deal to use Openreach; Wolters Kluwer +3.1%, sold its German consumer tax business for EUR 40mln. US cash equities opened lower, with the NDX nearing losses of 3%. The biggest downside mover of note is Intel (-28.5%), after weaker than expected revenue, free cash flow and profit guidance. In turn, Intel's five-year CDS has widened to a record 123.5bps. Downside in Amazon (-2.4%) is also weighing on indices, after its Q3 metrics missed expectations. FX DXY was firmer alongside energy prices, with the index within a 101.54-102.08 range, having picked up from around 12:30GMT amid pressure in USTs. The Q3 ECI was in line at 0.8% Q/Q, while Chicago PMI missed at 55.3 (exp. 56.1). Fed's Barkin said the direction of travel for policy is straightforward, but the question is the pace. EUR/USD was lower towards the bottom end of a 1.1137-1.1215 range, slipping from the 1.1200 mark as the USD firmed, with losses extending; German CPI cooled more than expected to 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.0%). Elsewhere, Italian HICP was hot at 5.6% Y/Y (exp. 4.6%), French HICP was above forecasts at 3.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.6%), and EZ Q3 GDP beat at 0.4% Q/Q (exp. 0.2%). In terms of ECB speak, ECB's Makhlouf said he seriously considered a hike at this week's meeting, Kocher said the Bank must hike if the situation fails to improve soon, and Panetta said more hikes may be needed. GBP/USD was marginally firmer within a 1.3374-1.3434 range, while EUR/GBP slipped beneath 0.8333 (GBP/EUR 1.2000) to a fresh 2026 low of 0.8327, within a 0.8327-0.8365 range. The BoE DMP showed 1-year CPI expectations rising to 3.3% (prev. 3.1%). USD/JPY was lower within a 156.96-157.90 range, briefly slipping beneath 157.00 in late morning trade, after the BoJ held rates at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with Takata dissenting in favour of a hike. Governor Ueda said the Bank will assess risks at every meeting, including December, while FinMin Katayama said it is about time to judge that the 2% target has been largely achieved. Antipodeans were lower, with AUD/USD within a 0.7018-0.7043 range and NZD/USD within a 0.5619-0.5652 range. USD/CAD was lower within a 1.3950-1.3991 range; Canadian GDP was flat in August (exp. 0.2% M/M), with the September flash at -0.1%. Japan's MoF said currency intervention amounted to JPY 0 from September 29th to October 28th. FIXED INCOME A firmer final session of the week so far for fixed, with benchmarks at/towards fresh WTD highs in the European morning, but failing to make any real ground on that since as energy upside offsets the tech-led haven bid. USTs hit a 106-27 WTD high early doors, and since have not been able to re-approach that mark despite the significant tech pressure seen, as energy upside offsets theoretical haven allure. Nonetheless, the benchmark is set to end the European session with gains of around 15 ticks. Bunds are also bid, though to a lesser extent than USTs as the region’s yields account for the continued upside in energy benchmarks as Dutch TTF lifts by over EUR 5/MWh on the day. No real move to the day’s preliminary growth and inflation data, while ECB speak has aligned with the statement/Lagarde thus far. Bunds at the mid-point of 122.02-64 parameters, firmer by about 20 ticks.. Conversely, OATs and BTPs have been impacted by the region’s firmer than expected preliminary inflation and resilient EZ-wide growth which, along with the TTF moves, has added a clear hawkish risk and those with fiscal pressures are feeling it most keenly. Gilts are just about in the green, but spent most of the day near-enough flat amid the referenced energy action. Looking ahead to next week, we expect the BoE to commence its tightening cycle given recent developments; Newsquawk primer available within the weekly note. A few ticks firmer and just above 85.50 into the European close. UK DMO CEO said global bond market volatility has reduced demand for long-dated bonds. Reduction in number of Gilts auctions reflects strong demand at prior auctions/syndications. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks were firmer, after rebounding overnight as focus remained on a potential resumption of US strikes on Iran after the midterms. Benchmarks dipped by around USD 0.65/bbl after Reuters reported Qatari mediators would return to Tehran, and by around USD 0.50/bbl after CBS reported they are conveying tweaks to the peace proposal, with indications of progress. Elsewhere, a supertanker exploded after hitting a naval mine on an unauthorised route through the Strait of Hormuz, IRIB reported. WTI Dec'26 was higher by 2.3% within a USD 102.43-104.99/bbl range, while Brent Jan'27 was higher by 2.5% within a USD 111.03-114.07/bbl range. Dutch TTF was higher within a EUR 98.68-104.05/MWh range, holding above the EUR 100/MWh mark for most of the session. Spot gold was lower within a USD 3,904-4,026/oz range, with losses extending in the afternoon alongside the firmer USD. Spot silver fell over 5.5% within a USD 49.21-52.24/oz range. 3M LME Copper was lower by 1.0% within a USD 14,180.30-14,379.13/t range. Vale (VALE) CFO expects all-in costs for copper to be at the lower end of the guided range at the end of 2026. Hungary's MOL said the AV3 distillation unit at its Danube refinery has resumed operations at full capacity. Libya's NOC said an armed group shut down a valve on the Hamada-Zawiya crude oil pipeline, forcing a halt to pumping operations and threatening the loss of around 15k BPD in crude supplies to the Zawiya refinery. BP (BP/ LN) CEO said some of the ~100k BPD of Iraqi output cut by Strait disruptions has been restored. Russian Deputy PM Novak said three Russian refineries and one chemical facility were attacked, one energy facility sustained minor damage. Sufficient winter diesel within Russia. Intend to export 510k/T of diesel in October, 2.15M/T in November. Ukraine has targeted the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Russia, Fox's Yingst reported. BP (BP/ LN) CFO, talking about fuel demand, said it has shown some weakness recently. Chile's INE reported Copper production (Sep) -15.1% Y/Y. Rio Tinto's (RIO LN) underground operations at its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia are progressively restarting following safety reviews. Chevron (CVX) CEO said Brent costs about USD 150/bbl once shipping is accounted for, CNBC. EUROPEAN DATA German HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.3%). German CPI Prel (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 3.3%); Core 2.1% (Prev. 2.4%). German HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.6%). German CPI Prel (Oct MM) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.6%). German GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%). German GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.0%). German Unemployed Persons (Oct) 3.016M (Prev. 3.012M). German Unemployment Change (Oct) 4K vs. Exp. 5K (Prev. 12K). German Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.4%). German Import Prices (Sep MM) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.0%). German Import Prices (Sep YY) 10.4% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 8.3%). Italian CPI Prel (Oct MM) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%). Italian HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.1%). Italian CPI Prel (Oct YY) 5.4% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.2%). Italian HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 5.6% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.2%). Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 YY) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.0%). Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 QQ) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%). European GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%). European GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%). European Unemployment Rate (Sep) 6.5% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.5%). UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Oct MM) 0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%). UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Oct YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.8%). Spanish Core CPI Prel (Oct YY) 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%). Spanish CPI Prel (Oct MM) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.3%). Spanish HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%). Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.6%). Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%). Spanish HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 5.0%). Spanish CPI Prel (Oct YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%); Core 3.1% (prev. 3.1%). Swiss KOF Leading Indicators (Oct) 107.6 vs. Exp. 108.3 (Prev. 109.1). French HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.3%). French CPI Prel (Oct YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%). French CPI Prel (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.3%). French HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.4%). French Private Non Farm Payrolls Prel (Q3 QQ) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%). French GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 YY) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%). French GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 QQ) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.0%). TRADE/TARIFFS China Commerce Ministry expresses strong dissatisfaction and firmly opposes the US FCC's restrictions on Chinese testing laboratories. Argues that the measures violate the consensus reached by the two heads of state and seriously undermine global supply chain stability. China and Switzerland agree to further tariff cuts. Chinese President Xi told Swiss President he hopes Switzerland will play an active role in promoting balanced, stable and upward development of China-Europe trade, state TV reported. Chinese President Xi said differences and problems can always be resolved as long as China and the EU maintain their partnership and engage in dialogue as equals; said China regards the EU as a partner. Chinese President Xi told Swiss President that the upgraded trade agreement fully reflects both nations' political courage and sense of responsibility in upholding open cooperation. China's Foreign Ministry said China will take necessary measures to defend its rights in response to US Federal Communications Commission measures against Chinese firms. CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said the direction of travel for monetary policy is straightforward, but the question is the pace. US businesses are facing significant cost pressures. We will see what we learn over the coming period. Years of elevated inflation have made it easier for businesses to justify raising prices. Resilience of consumer spending has been surprising given relatively flat incomes. The surge in AI investment has put pressure on supply chains, adding to inflationary pressures. Fed's Barkin said AI investment is driving demand-side inflation, which the Fed can lean against. Businesses report that cost pressures are broad-based. Business owners report that demand remains solid, with weakness limited to non-profits and the housing sector. Businesses are planning to pass increased costs on to customers. BoJ Governor Ueda (press conference) said the Bank will continue to raise rates in response to economic and price developments, and will assess risks at every meeting, including December, but cannot commit in advance to hiking at fixed intervals. All members agreed underlying inflation has reached 2%, but it is too early to declare the inflation target achieved, and the Bank does not plan a formal declaration. The policy rate remains below neutral, and a faster pace of ETF sales would have only a limited market impact. The ECB has asked the region’s leaders to start choosing a successor to Chief Economist Lane, opening the race for yet another vacancy on its Executive Board, reported Bloomberg. ECB's Makhlouf said he is uncomfortable with where inflation is, acknowledged that upside risks remain. Indirect price impact is present but not intensifying, and no second-round effects have been observed. ECB's Makhlouf said he seriously considered the possibility of a rate hike at this week's ECB meeting. Upside risks remain and the Bank must stay vigilant. ECB's Kocher said the Bank must hike rates if the economic situation fails to improve soon. Inflation risks have clearly increased. Monetary policy response will be necessary if the situation does not improve in the near future. Inflation risks have clearly increased, but neither acting prematurely nor waiting idly will ensure price stability. ECB's Panetta said more rate hikes may be needed to stop inflation. ECB should weigh recent surge in bond yields when calibrating policy. Bank can adjust its stance promptly if the international situation improves or financial tensions act as a brake on inflation. Rise in long-term yields must be considered when gradually calibrating monetary policy. The increase in core inflation could become more pronounced early next year. ECB's Nagel said they will act decisively if needed, no significant second round effects thus far. ECB SMA (Oct): Median Deposit Rate by year-end at 2.75%. ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q4) : Headline and core inflation expectations revised upwards for 2026 and 2027, owing primarily to higher energy prices and their indirect effects, with longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored at 2.0%. Near-term GDP growth expectations revised up, primarily reflecting recent data, with increasing growth continued to be expected in the short run. Unemployment rate expectations revised up slightly for 2026, but broadly unchanged thereafter. ECB's Rehn said the growth and inflation outlook is still very uncertain. ECB's Simkus said that holding rates does not mean no more hikes to come, added likelihood of energy spillover has risen, but noted they don't see second round effects yet. Pantheon Macroeconomics: the BoE DMP ends a hawkish month and provides confidence to forecast three BoE hikes over the next six months, starting in November 2026. BoE DMP (Oct): 1-year CPI expectation 3.3% (prev. 3.1%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). Year-ahead wage growth 3.4% (prev. 3.4%). PBoC set overnight reverse repo rate at 1.25% (vs prev. 1.25%). Changes 7-day reverse repo operations to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. PBoC said other tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repo tools, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate. 7-day reverse repo operations will be conducted mainly around tax periods and month-end. PBoC said it has extended its currency swap agreement with South Africa for five years. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian Kremlin spokesman Peskov said there are no difficulties in agreeing on a date for trilateral talks on Ukraine, RIA reported. Russian Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia will not raise the issue of Kyiv's attacks on Russian oil refineries at the upcoming meeting in Abu Dhabi. Russia's Kremlin said Ukraine ignored US President Trump's request to cease attacking refineries in Russia. Russian Kremlin’s Peskov said at some stage the involvement of Europeans in the Ukraine settlement negotiations will be required, but so far no one has talked about it, Interfax reported. Russia's Kremlin said the Oleshky incident is an isolated case and should not be seen as indicative of the broader Ukraine peace process. Russian Kremlin aide Ushakov said no date has been set yet for Russia-US-Ukraine talks, Interfax reported. Russia's Kremlin said that President Putin is open to contact with everyone in the interest of putting the situation in Ukraine onto a peaceful trajectory, IFX reported. MIDDLE EAST Iran strikes were not the focus of yesterday's US meeting, with the blockade and economic pressure discussed at length, although strikes could still occur immediately after the midterms, Axios' Ravid reported, citing multiple US officials. Saudi Civil Defense issues a warning for the Jazan province; shortly after, danger has passed. A supertanker exploded after hitting a naval mine on an unauthorised route through the Strait of Hormuz, reported IRIB News. Qatari mediators are in Iran to convey tweaks to the peace proposal, CBS reported citing sources; reports suggest there were indications of progress being made. US President Trump said the Iran war will end very soon, one way or another, speaking on the ‘Mundo in the Morning’ radio show; gasoline prices will drop after the end of war; doesn’t know who to talk to in Iran, as a lot of the leaders are gone. Iran has to make a deal. Need a guarantee there will never be a nuclear weapon from Iran. US CENTCOM Commander said the IRGC was not visible in the Strait of Hormuz when he transited the region earlier in the week. Saw dozens of commercial vessels transiting. Saw US assets in both air and water, forces remain vigilant. Saw dozens of commercial ships in transit over hormuz, including cargo, crude oil, LNG. Helped Gulf partners move over 1.5bln barrels of oil across the summer. Iran has been prevented from exporting oil. Qatari mediators are in Tehran today to discuss the latest US proposal for the resumption of peace talks with Iranian officials, Axios’ Ravid reported citing a diplomatic source. IRGC Navy said two oil tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz via unauthorised routes caught fire and stopped in southern waters after ignoring repeated radio warnings, IRIB reported. US has informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is the basis for any negotiations, Al Arabiya reported, citing sources. Mediators are reportedly discussing allowing inspectors access to Iran's nuclear sites in exchange for the release of some frozen funds. Yemeni Armed Forces claim to have entered the centre of Al-Maqatirah district after driving out Saudi-backed militias, Sabereen News reported. Maersk (MAERSKB DC) noted continued Strait of Hormuz disruption and regional port congestion are impacting on cargo movements and delivery timelines. "Due to the evolving situation in the Middle East and the resulting increase in fuel related costs, we will be adjusting our inland fuel surcharge. This temporary measure is necessary to ensure continuity and efficiency in the services we provide with potential changes in subsequent weeks depending on market conditions." German Chancellor Merz said he is working to end the war in Iran as soon as possible, adding that the conflict has had a major impact on Europe. A Qatari delegation has arrived in Tehran, Iranian state media IRIB reported. Qatari mediators return to Tehran on Friday as part of efforts to reach a US-Iran deal, with mediation talks coordinated with the US, Reuters reported. Iran's UN envoy said US blockade threatens food and medicine access and that the US maritime blockade violates the UN Charter, adds US and allies are responsible for Hormuz insecurity. NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS US President Trump posted "INFLATION IS WAY DOWN UNDER “TRUMP.” INCOME FOR PEOPLE & COMPANIES IS WAY UP! The Golden Age of America Is Upon Us.". NORTH AMERICAN DATA US Chicago PMI (Oct) 55.3 vs. Exp. 56.1 (Prev. 58.8). US Employment Cost - Benefits (Q3 QQ) 0.90% (Prev. 1.00%). US Employment Cost - Wages (Q3 QQ) 0.70% (Prev. 0.90%). US Employment Cost Index (Q3 QQ) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%). Canadian GDP Prel (Sep MM) -0.1% (Prev. 0%). Canadian GDP (Aug MM) 0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0%). LATAM DATA Mexican GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.1%). Mexican GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 QQ) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 1.4%). Brazilian Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.3%). Brazilian Nominal Budget Balance (Sep) -113B (Prev. -116B). NOTABLE ASIA-PAC NEWS Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said the government will consider the specific amount and how to handle the surplus arising from the BoJ's ETF sales during budget formulation. Government reached complete agreement one to two months ago that Japan is no longer in a deflationary situation. It is about time to judge that the BoJ's 2% inflation target has been largely achieved. ASIA-PAC DATA Indian Deposit Growth (Oct/16 YY) 16.7% (Prev. 17.8%). Indian Bank Loan Growth (Oct/16 YY) 18.2% (Prev. 19.4%). Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (Oct/23) 719.75B (Prev. 721.02B). Indian Government Budget Value (Sep) -7144.1B (Prev. -7102.5B). CRYPTO Binance co-CEO Teng said the company's investigation has not attributed responsibility to any individual and that Binance is covering every loss. OTHER DATA South African Trade Balance (Sep) 19.80B (Prev. 18.97B). South African Budget Balance (Sep) -22.1B (Prev. 19.95B). Turkish Foreign Exchange Reserves (Oct/23) 59.045B (Prev. 62.148B). Turkish Tourist Arrivals (Sep YY) 0.40% (Prev. -0.03%). Turkish Tourism Revenues (Q3) 25.5B (Prev. 15.9B). Turkish Economic Confidence Index (Oct) 97.3 (Prev. 101.3). Luxembourg PPI (Sep YY) 0.6% (Prev. -0.2%).