Newsquawk欧州市場総括 - 2026年11月5日

BoE hiked by 25bps to 4.00% via an 8-1 vote, with Mann favouring 50bps; Bailey said it is not inevitable that today's hike is the start of a series. European bourses pare gains as sentiment sours after the US open; US equity futures slip, with the NQ underperforming; Rheinmetall slumps after cutting its sales outlook. Crude recoups some of Wednesday's slump amid fresh Hormuz tanker incidents; spot gold pares gains but holds around USD 4,100/oz. EQUITIES European bourses started the session on a strong footing, continuing to build on the prior day’s strength. Action was more or less sideways for most of the day, but then moved lower alongside hefty selling pressure in stateside indices. European sectors held a positive bias; Basic Resources held towards the top of the pile, whilst Energy lagged. It was an exceptionally busy day in terms of earnings reports. To pick out some key ones; Evotec (+8%, Q3 rev. falls but moves forward with restructuring), Rheinmetall (-14.3%, cuts 2026 sales outlook amid order delays), Commerzbank (-1.7%, rev. missed expectations). Please see the Newsquawk European equity opening news for full details. US indices opened entirely in the red. The NQ is the clear underperformer this morning, with losses driven by the ongoing AI/memory sell-off, following the recent Democratic sweep. Overnight, Asian giants such as SK Hynix (-5%) and Kioxia (-13%) sank; this theme has continued into today with SanDisk (-7%) and Micron (-5.2%) both extending losses. Recent analyst commentary has been mixed; Citrini suggested that the AI-trade has reached an inflection point, adding that: "Given the enormous chasm between revenues and capex, the asymmetric risk is no longer to the upside, but to the downside”. On the flip side, JPMorgan opined that Q3’26 results have generally been positive (EPS/margin beats). The firm adds that end demand signals remain mixed, but believes that sector-specific supply & demand fundamentals should “continue to be very solid through 2028E”. FX DXY was firmer within a 101.20-101.71 range, paring more of its post-midterm losses; modest upside was seen in early European trade as T-note futures waned slightly from their best levels, with the index extending to highs as risk sentiment soured after the US cash open. US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K (exp. 196K) and Q3 Nonfarm Productivity rose 3.6% (exp. 2.8%), though the data saw little reaction. EUR/USD was lower within a 1.1203-1.1268 range, weighed on by the firmer USD. EZ PPI came in hotter at 11.1% Y/Y (exp. 10.9%), German Factory Orders rose 4.4% M/M (exp. 4.8%), and French Industrial Production unexpectedly fell 0.5% M/M (exp. +0.3%). ECB's Zigman said there is a strong likelihood of a rate hike in December. GBP/USD was flat within a 1.3448-1.3501 range, having failed to sustain a move above 1.3500 in the morning. The pair spiked to around 1.3480 as the BoE hiked by 25bps to 4.00%, with all nine members voting for a hike (exp. seven) and Mann favouring 50bps, before fading as Governor Bailey said it is not inevitable that today's hike is the start of a series of hikes. EUR/GBP traded within a 0.8323-0.8349 range, printing its lows on the decision. UK Construction PMI disappointed at 43.6 (exp. 46.1). USD/JPY was softer within a 157.79-158.51 range, with modest JPY strength seen after the US open as tech weakness dragged on sentiment. Japanese PM Takaichi said she will continue to cooperate with US President Trump to strengthen US-Japan ties. Antipodeans were mixed: NZD/USD traded within a 0.5615-0.5658 range, while AUD/USD was softer within a 0.6998-0.7025 range. NOK was little changed after Norges Bank held at 4.50%, as expected, with EUR/NOK within a 10.410-10.478 range. SEK lagged, with EUR/SEK climbing within a 10.912-10.986 range after Swedish CPIF came in cooler at 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.4%). FIXED INCOME For the most part, a bullish session for fixed income, but a session of two halves as initial gains are tempered by a hawkish BoE and renewed energy upside. USTs spent the morning bid by a handful of ticks, but have been gradually retreating from the 107-07 overnight peak across the day. A pullback that has since been offset by further equity pressure after the US cash equity open, as the AI/Tech sell-off continues and as such USTs are back in the green but still off overnight best and holding around 107-00 into the European close. No move to the day’s labour market data ahead of NFP on Friday, or the Fed commentary. Bunds spent the morning firmer, with the initial themes similar to USTs as an energy pullback and AI/tech sell off weighed on inflation and growth expectations, and in turn yields. However, as energy has picked up and with some read across from the BoE (see below), this has waned to upside of just 15 ticks vs an earlier c. 40 tick peak. Gilts set to end the European day in-line with Bunds, firmer by about 10 ticks but some 25 shy of the 87.00 handle and c. 60 off the 87.38 peak. Initial action was also driven by a repricing into the BoE and continued waning of BoE bets. However, the BoE was ultimately a much more hawkish than expected affair, with the MPC unanimous in the decision to hike, and Mann dissenting on the 25bps hike, instead voting for 50bps. The statement/Q&A suggested that the path of least resistance is further tightening given price pressures already in the pipeline, but the fast changing macro backdrop could see expectations moderate significantly. As such, the takeaway is a clear hawkish skew subject to geopolitical developments with a meeting-by-meeting approach now taken by the market/MPC, and December a live decision. Spain sold EUR 5.466bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.10% 2031, 3.40% 2036 and 3.50% 2041 Bonos, alongside the 0.70% 2030 Bono I/L (exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln). 3.10% 2031: b/c 2.41x (prev. 2.72x), average yield 3.338% (prev. 2.947%). 3.40% 2036: b/c 1.70x (prev. 1.64x), average yield 3.802% (prev. 4.176%). 3.50% 2041: b/c 1.82x (prev. 2.12x), average yield 4.092% (prev. 3.813%). South Korea is planning a "large scale" acquisition of US Treasuries to fortify its FX reserves, Korea Economic Daily reported citing sources. Apple (AAPL) kicked off a seven-part USD high-grade bond offering. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks recouped some of Wednesday's slump of more than 8%, grinding higher throughout the session; prices rose over USD 1/bbl in early European trade despite a lack of fresh headline catalysts. Gulf headlines remained in focus: UKMTO reported a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles 50NM north of Qatar's Madinat ash Shamal, the IRGC said an oil tanker caught fire after striking a naval mine east of the Strait of Hormuz, and later said two more tankers collided with naval mines in the same area. In the afternoon, N12 reported senior US officials see a high probability of war with Iran, with modest upticks seen on the report. WTI Dec'26 traded within a USD 86.65-90.35/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 87.13-97.15/bbl range), while Brent Jan'27 moved within USD 93.44-97.72/bbl (vs yesterday's USD 93.22-104.96/bbl range). Dutch TTF pared earlier losses to trade firmer within a EUR 83.56-90.06/MWh range, briefly topping EUR 90/MWh, tracking the strength in crude. Spot gold pared some of its gains but held around USD 4,100/oz, within a USD 4,057.84-4,146.99/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 3,919.93-4,070.53/oz range), retaining the bulk of its post-midterm rally despite the firmer USD, with some further upside seen at the US cash open in what seemed like a haven bid. Spot silver gave back its gains to trade lower within a USD 52.15-53.48/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 48.97-52.46/oz range), while platinum and palladium were higher. 3M LME copper was flat within a USD 13,940.08-14,136.18/t range (vs yesterday's USD 13,832.48-14,143.00/t range), recovering from subdued trade in Asia; Codelco's chief said this year's copper output is expected to be closer to 1.2mln tonnes (prev. 1.3mln tonnes). Russian President Putin's envoy Dmitriev dismissed reports of Russian diesel tankers changing course to the US as "false", saying the tankers "continue on course". NBP Governor Glapinski said the NBP holds 700 tons of gold. EUROPEAN DATA European PPI (Sep YY) 11.1% vs. Exp. 10.9% (Prev. 8.3%). European PPI (Sep MM) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.0%). German Factory Orders (Sep MM) 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. -10.6%). French Industrial Production (Sep MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.4%). Swedish CPIF Prel (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.5%). Swedish CPIF Prel (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%). Swedish CPI Prel (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.1%). Swedish CPI Prel (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%). UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 43.6 vs. Exp. 46.1 (Prev. 46.1). European S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 42.5 (Prev. 43.4). German S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 41.6 (Prev. 43.5). French S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 38.8 (Prev. 39.8). Italian S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 47.3 (Prev. 46.5). Italian Retail Sales (Sep MM) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%). Italian Retail Sales (Sep YY) 1.6% (Prev. 0.5%). UK New Car Sales (Oct YY) 5.4% (Prev. 12.1%). German New Car Registrations (Oct YY) 1.7% (Prev. 9.0%). Swiss Unemployment Rate (Oct) 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%). Swedish House Price Index (Oct MM) 1.0% (Prev. 2.0%). TRADE/TARIFFS China's MOFCOM is to maintain anti-dumping duties on US-origin n-propanol imports for five years from 6th November. China and Australia discussed agricultural trade, according to China's customs authorities. CENTRAL BANKS BoE raises Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.00%, as expected, via an 8-1 vote, with Mann voting for a 50bps hike (exp. 7-2, with two votes for a hold); monetary policy is not on a pre-set path. Stronger-than-expected activity data added to the case for tighter policy, while there is still limited evidence of second-round effects from higher energy prices. Greene said additional rate rises will likely be required, Lombardelli and Pill see a case for a further near-term rise, while Taylor and Dhingra described the hike as insurance against worse inflation outcomes. BoE MPR: CPI is now seen peaking at 4.9% in Q2 2027 (prev. 3.1%), returning to the 2% target in Q3 2028 and falling to 1.8% by Q4 2029. The adverse scenario shows CPI peaking at 6.2% in Q3 2027. GDP growth is seen at 1.6% in 2026 (prev. 1.1%), 1.3% in 2027 (prev. 1.1%) and 1.2% in 2028 (prev. 1.7%), while unemployment is seen at 4.8%, 4.9% and 5.1% over the same years (prev. 5.0%, 5.3%, 5.2%). BoE Governor Bailey said there is enough inflationary pressure in the pipeline from energy prices to raise rates, but it is not inevitable that today's hike is the start of a series of hikes, and it does not seem likely to be the last increase unless the Middle East conflict is resolved. In the Q&A, he said the case for another 25bps could be fairly strong in the absence of a resolution, that he does not sign up to "two and done", and that the MPC will have more information by December but will decide meeting by meeting. He added that if good news on the conflict continues, inflation could peak "somewhat below" 5%. BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden said inflation risks are to the upside, while Lombardelli said the economy has been more resilient than the MPC expected. Norges Bank maintained its Key Policy Rate at 4.50%, as expected; "it will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed". It noted the krone has appreciated and is stronger than assumed. CNB raised its policy rate by 25bps to 4.00%, as expected. Forecasts: 2027 inflation 3.2% (prev. 2.5%); GDP growth 1.7% in 2026 (prev. 2.2%) and 2.5% in 2027 (prev. 2.7%). ECB's Zigman said there is a strong likelihood of a rate hike in December, while ECB's Moulin said elevated yields present a fresh challenge for the financial sector. SNB Chairman Schlegel said domestic inflation is being driven by fuel and energy, with no broadening of price pressures domestically and no significant second-round effects yet; the SNB would intervene if price stability were at risk. Fed's Hammack (hawkish dissenter) said monetary policy needs to move to a restrictive stance, and gradual rate hikes are less disruptive to the economy and financial system. Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said demand in the economy is solid, but some sectors are not feeling it; businesses are still cautious about hiring, but are not yet firing. RBA's Hauser said some people's confidence in policy delivery, particularly on inflation, has fallen. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST Senior US officials see a high probability of war with Iran, N12 TV reported, while Sabereen News, citing American media, said the White House is seriously considering new military strikes against Iran. IRGC said two more oil tankers collided with naval mines east of the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire, IRIB reported; earlier, the IRGC Navy said another tanker caught fire after striking a naval mine in the same area. UKMTO reported a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles 50NM north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, on 4th November at 23:20 UTC. Saudi Civil Defence issued early warnings in Sharurah and Yanbu, later saying the danger had passed, with Fars reporting Yemeni missile attacks targeting Yanbu; the Saudi coalition said air defences intercepted a ballistic missile heading towards Medina, which the Houthis denied, saying their operations target only oil facilities and military bases. Sabereen News later reported explosions in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province. Iran and Oman discussed efforts to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and arrangements to secure sea routes. Iranian President's deputy said the US wants to end the war and refocus on domestic issues, IRNA reported. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi held calls with his Saudi, Qatari and Jordanian counterparts, while Pakistan's Deputy PM and Foreign Minister held calls with Saudi and Omani counterparts on regional de-escalation. Iran's IRGC Ground Forces Commander declared full readiness to respond decisively to any hostile action, Sepah News reported. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukraine confirmed a strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russian President Putin may hold international talks today, adding diesel shipped under a deal with the US will find buyers, TASS reported. NOTABLE EUROPEAN NEWS UK PM Burnham is reportedly reviewing a decision to award a GBP 2.4bln military satellite contract to Lockheed Martin (LMT) over Airbus (AIR FP), Sky News reported, while his 10-year plan is reportedly to be pushed back to January. Numerous bomb threats were reported on planes across Europe in the morning, resulting in several diversions and landings, with no confirmed devices on any aircraft. German Chamber of Commerce forecasts German GDP growth of 1% in 2026 (prev. 0.3%) and 1% in 2027. Sweden is to reintroduce internal border controls for six months, citing heightened security risks stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS US President Trump said he intends to keep War Secretary Hegseth, ABC's Karl reported. US VP Vance reportedly made his comments on the Iran war without Trump's approval, The Telegraph reported citing sources. US Secretary of State Rubio is on resignation watch, with expectations he will quit to launch a presidential bid, The Independent reported. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/31) 189K vs. Exp. 196K (Prev. 195K). US Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/24) 1718K vs. Exp. 1710K (Prev. 1695K). US Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Oct/31) 194.75K (Prev. 197.00K). US Nonfarm Productivity Prel (Q3 QQ) 3.6% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.1%). US Unit Labor Costs Prel (Q3 QQ) -0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.9%). US Challenger Job Cuts (Oct) 43.994K (Prev. 43.281K). Revelio Labs Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) +26K (Prev. +56.9K, rev. +67.6K). US Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Oct, Final) 4.14% (Prev. 4.18%). LATAM DATA Brazilian Industrial Production (Sep MM) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.6%). Brazilian Industrial Production (Sep YY) -2.5% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. -1.2%). Brazilian S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 44.5 (Prev. 49.2). Brazilian S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 44.4 (Prev. 47.4). Mexican Gross Fixed Investment (Aug MM) -1.8% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 1.4%). Mexican Gross Fixed Investment (Aug YY) 5.7% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.6%). Mexican Consumer Confidence (Oct) 45.0 (Prev. 45.1). NOTABLE ASIA-PAC NEWS China's Vice Premier He Lifeng urged enhanced financial support for AI and computing. South Korea plans to delay the introduction of digital asset taxes by two years to 2029, according to the Finance Ministry. ASIA-PAC DATA Taiwanese CPI (Oct YY) 2.33% (Prev. 2.73%).