Newsquawk デイリー・アジア太平洋市場オープニングニュース - 2026年10月29日

US stocks closed in the green on Wednesday, with outperformance in the Nasdaq, although the equal-weight S&P 500 was flat. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Tech, Energy and Financials leading, while Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples closed in the red. Tech received a boost from Oracle (ORCL) after it provided long-term guidance and announced plans to limit capital raises, helping support several recently pressured neo-cloud names following debt concerns in the AI space. However, after-hours earnings saw Google (GOOGL) tumble post-earnings and Microsoft (MSFT) rally, while Cyber & Software names were hit after Fortinet (FTNT) and ServiceNow (NOW) figures. USD was hit as Fed Chair Warsh's remarks, following the expected decision to hold rates, lacked the hawkish elements needed to support the buck. The decision was met with two hawkish dissenters, Hammack (exp.) and Cook (unexp.), with the Committee noting that "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 per cent goal". Choppy trade was seen at first on the statement and decision, before USD pressure set in shortly after the press conference as short-end yields began to decline. Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Australian Export/Import Price Indexes, Japanese Household Confidence, Supply from Japan. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 +0.3% Nasdaq Comp. +0.3% DJIA +0.2% Russell 2000 +0.4% ES Dec'26 Flat RTY Dec'26 +0.7% NQ Dec'26 -0.2% YM Dec'26 +0.4% FX DXY -0.2% (102.13) EUR/USD +0.2% USD/JPY -0.1% GBP/USD +0.1% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -2.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -1 tick US 10yr Yield 5.02% German 10yr Yield 3.38% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +2.0% Brent Jan'27 +0.3% Spot Gold +0.2% LME Copper +0.1% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.6% Ethereum +0.7% As of 21:25GMT/17:25EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Australian Export/Import Price Indexes, Japanese Household Confidence, Supply from Japan. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. FOMC Federal Reserve kept its rates unchanged at 3.75-4.00%, as widely expected, with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favour of a 25bps hike, with the former somewhat of a surprise. The statement was little changed as it reiterated that inflation remains elevated and that the Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system, although it added one key line, stating that "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal". Furthermore, it upgraded the language around economic growth to "strong" from "solid". Fed Chair Warsh said the committee will deliver price stability, while he said they are unwilling and unable to call financial conditions tight. Warsh also said they made clear a readiness to act and have shown willingness to act. He announced that they decided to change the FOMC schedule next fall and stated that 8 meetings is the right number a year, but one meeting will not have a vote on the policy rate and will be focused on strategy, while he expects to have 6 policy-setting meetings in 2028. Fed Chair Warsh said during the Q&A that the overwhelming judgement at the FOMC is that monetary medicine is starting to work and that they decided to take stock of where they are, while he answered that their judgement is that it would when asked if the period ahead will provide more clarity. Warsh said there is no soft inflation, no implicit inflation target and that there's a target of price stability, which is 2% as measured by PCE. Warsh noted a stable correlation between rising oil prices and market-set interest rates, until recently, adding that interest rates have rolled over to the downside and noted that oil futures prices have moved up. Furthermore, he said that he doesn't believe in forward guidance, absent a crisis, and is not going to pre-judge meetings, while he won't share musings on what will happen in December, but stated they might learn a lot by then and will be better positioned to determine the right policy decision. IRAN CONFLICT Iran is reportedly being pressed to make nuclear concessions as massive post-midterm strikes loom, according to Axios citing sources. US President Trump told Axios that talks with Iran are underway via mediators but said he is unsure whether they will succeed, while mediators are warning Iran that accepting the proposals may be its only way to avert major attacks after the midterms. If Iran lets UN inspectors visit its nuclear sites, it could get waivers to sell oil and access to some frozen funds for food and humanitarian goods, while a renewed bombing campaign looks likely soon after the midterms without a last-minute deal. US VP Vance reached out to an Iranian hard-liner in a bid to restart peace talks, according to WSJ. The outreach aims to test whether enough common ground exists to persuade Trump against ordering a short, intense strike on Iran in the coming weeks, while some US officials believe engaging Iranian hard-liners could produce a better diplomatic outcome. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran is not able to get dollars, and funding for their proxies is going down, while he added that Operation Outcast is succeeding. There has been a lot of back and forth between the Iranians and Americans via the mediators over the last few days, according to NewsNation citing a source. US official and military sources told Fox News that movements were underway in the Middle East to give Trump options if he decides to resume strikes against Iran, with the deployments intended to ensure US forces are ready to act if directed, though there was no indication the President had made a decision. US and Israel have reportedly prepared plans to resume joint attacks on Iran after the US midterm elections, with the timing reportedly intended to avoid potential economic and electoral consequences, according to Nidaa al-Watan citing a Western diplomatic source. US senior diplomatic official said a potential strike on Iran would not depend on Israel's political process, adding that Trump remained determined to completely neutralise Iran's military nuclear programme and eliminate military threats to the Strait of Hormuz and neighbouring countries, according to Hayom News. Qatari mediators were reported to have presented Iran with a new draft agreement in Tehran on Sunday, with a response expected by the end of the week, according to Reuters sources. However, a senior Iranian official later denied that Qatar had presented a new proposal, adding that Tehran's policy of no flexibility on the nuclear issue remained unchanged. Timeline for the new proposal includes opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the blockade, while the Iranian nuclear file is on the new timetable and inviting inspectors is one of the items, according to Al Arabiya citing Arab sources. Consultations between mediators and Iran will be held at a meeting in Turkey before November 4th, and Iran has requested reducing the 7-day period to 4 days. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran continued to give diplomacy a chance, adding that Iran remained in close contact with intermediaries to review ideas that could ensure implementation of its seven-day plan in less than a week. Iranian officials believe Trump wants to bring the nuclear issue into negotiations, which Tehran rejects, according to an Al-Mayadeen correspondent in Iran. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iran would respond to any act of aggression in a way that would be beyond imagination. US CENTCOM denied Iranian reports that commercial vessels are hitting sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that all internationally recognised primary transit routes through Hormuz have been cleared of sea mines. Satellite imagery indicates significant damage to the main refining unit at Saudi Arabia's 550k BPD Ras Tanura refinery following a strike by Yemeni armed forces, with the affected unit reportedly left inoperable, according to Fars. UKMTO said it had received reports of suspicious activity potentially linked to piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Hezbollah Secretary-General said the group was interested in an agreement between Iran and the US, describing it as the only available source of strength alongside the steadfastness of the resistance, according to Al Jazeera. Israeli President Herzog is reportedly pushing for a Netanyahu-led government to remain in place for the next two years, in exchange for Netanyahu resigning at the end of his term and receiving a full pardon in his trial, according to Channel 14. US TRADE US stocks closed in the green on Wednesday, with outperformance in the Nasdaq, although the equal-weight S&P 500 was flat. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Tech, Energy and Financials leading, while Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples closed in the red. Tech received a boost from Oracle (ORCL) after it provided long-term guidance and announced plans to limit capital raises, helping support several recently pressured neo-cloud names following debt concerns in the AI space. However, after-hours earnings saw Google (GOOGL) tumble post-earnings and Microsoft (MSFT) rally, while Cyber & Software names were hit after Fortinet (FTNT) and ServiceNow (NOW) figures. SPX +0.28% at 7,744, NDX +0.55% at 29,813, DJI +0.19% at 52,480, RUT +0.43% at 2,831. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE White House said US President Trump has directed officials to negotiate agreements with trading partners to address national security risks from imports of robotics and industrial machinery from any country. Canadian government official said talks with the US had made limited progress. Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met European Parliament trade committee chair Lange on Tuesday to discuss China-EU trade relations, with Wang describing China and the EU as important economic and trade partners, while China's Commerce Ministry pledged closer communication to support stable relations. NOTABLE HEADLINES/EARNINGS US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Fed Chair Warsh should have an open mind on the transitory nature of any supply shocks, while he stated Trump has great confidence in Warsh's handling of the mandate. Bessent added the Fed is very attentive to being above the inflation target for a long time and that Warsh is off to a great start. Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 2.12 (exp. 3.03), Revenue 127.6bln (exp. 127.91bln), Operating income 40.58bln (exp. 43.16bln), Google Services revenue 96.30bln (exp. 98.4bln), Google Cloud revenue 30.71bln (exp. 29.1bln), Google Search & other revenue 63.35bln (exp. 64.85bln). Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q1 2027 (USD): EPS 4.92 (exp. 4.72), Revenue 92.3bln (exp. 90.6bln), Operating income 45.9bln (exp. 44.1bln), Net income 36.6bln (exp. 35.1bln), Cloud revenue 63.9bln (exp. 61.62bln). DATA RECAP US Goods Trade Balance Advance (Sep): -USD 134.90bln (exp. -USD 130bln, prev. -USD 132.07bln). US Wholesale Inventories Advance (Sep MM): 0.6% (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.5%). US Retail Inventories Ex Autos Advance (Sep MM): 0.4% (prev. 0%). FX USD was hit as Fed Chair Warsh's remarks, following the expected decision to hold rates, lacked the hawkish elements needed to support the buck. The decision was met with two hawkish dissenters, Hammack (exp.) and Cook (unexp.), with the Committee noting that "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 per cent goal". Choppy trade was seen at first on the statement and decision, before USD pressure set in shortly after the press conference as short-end yields began to decline. EUR benefitted from the aforementioned USD weakness ahead of tomorrow's ECB announcement, where policymakers are expected to hold rates at 2.50% despite elevated energy prices and inflation concerns. GBP was firmer in the aftermath of the FOMC and with UK Chancellor Healey confirming a 3ppt increase in the bank tax surcharge at the Autumn Budget announcement, while the OBR raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 3.4% from 2.0% and lowered GDP growth expectations to 1.0%. JPY saw two-way trade with USD/JPY fading early upside as the dollar was pressured following the lack of hawkish surprises from the Fed announcement and Warsh's presser. BoC raised its policy rate by 25bps to 2.5%, as expected, and said further increases could be necessary, although the Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully amid uncertainty. The Bank said the inflation outlook was higher and more persistent than in its July MPR, while near-term inflation expectations among households and businesses had risen and longer-term expectations remained well anchored. CPI is forecast to average 3% in 2027, 1ppt above the July projection, before returning to 2% in mid-2028, with developments in the Middle East and businesses' responses to cost pressures identified as key sources of uncertainty. BoC Governor Macklem said the inflation outlook had deteriorated since the July report, while Canada's growth outlook had improved modestly, adding that energy-sector investment was increasing and the policy rate remained low enough not to restrain growth, even after the latest hike. Inflation was becoming less likely to remain well contained, he added. FIXED INCOME T-notes settled lower and the yield curve steepened during the FOMC press conference amid a lack of hawkish surprises and continued reluctance to provide forward guidance. COMMODITIES Oil prices saw gains as US-Iran tensions continued to intensify, amid reports that military movements are underway in the Middle East to give US President Trump options if he decides to resume strikes against Iran. US EIA Crude Stocks Change (w/e Oct 23): -1.892M (exp. 0M, prev. -3.061M). SPR fell by 0.1mln to 282.6mln. White House said the oil agreement with Venezuela would deliver a total of 65bln barrels. US Energy Secretary Wright said diesel exports from the Arabian Gulf were likely to increase and diesel prices would fall significantly, adding that China was likely to resume diesel exports. ADNOC has reportedly told some Asian refiners it could begin delivering Upper Zakum crude via a new pipeline to the Fujairah terminal in early 2027, allowing shipments to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg. Dutch Prime Minister said no European ally was willing to buy Russian crude. Colombia needs to increase copper production to 1.5mln metric tonnes from the current 600k, according to Deputy Mines Minister Madrinan, who added that a major boom was coming for the country's copper industry. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukrainian President Zelensky said negotiations involving Ukraine, Russia and the US could take place as early as November 10th. Kremlin said European representatives would not participate in trilateral talks on Ukraine, according to Interfax. Zelensky said Ukraine would not attack Russian ships carrying diesel to the US, and commented that Western powers could eventually discuss Russia's demands for security guarantees, while insisting Ukraine's own security needs must be addressed first. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES Japanese PM Takaichi said she had agreed with German Chancellor Merz to launch a high-level dialogue on AI. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Chancellor Healey said the Budget would be based on fiscal discipline, support growth and maintain control of the public finances, adding that he had GBP 15bln of fiscal headroom, in line with expectations but down from GBP 23.6bln in the March forecast, with the figure expected to reach GBP 22bln by 2030/31. Healey said he would meet the fiscal rules in the third year of the forecast and use some of the headroom to absorb the impact of developments in the Middle East, while ruling out cuts to public services and broad-based tax increases. Healey confirmed the bank tax surcharge would rise by 3ppts, beginning in January and lasting for 15 months, and said the UK would launch a data centre covenant as part of its AI strategy. He also announced an additional GBP 1.5bln for social and affordable housing, a first-time homebuyer ISA to replace the Lifetime ISA, and an equity loan scheme backed by GBP 4.7bln in government lending for first-time buyers. UK OBR forecast GDP growth slowing from 1.25% in 2026 to 1.0% in 2027, while CPI is expected to reach 3.4% in 2027, up from the 2% forecast in March. Higher interest rates and an increased inflation forecast are expected to leave pre-measures borrowing an average of GBP 11bln per year above the March projection, while borrowing could be GBP 17bln above the central forecast in 2027/28 if energy prices reach a higher and more sustained peak. The OBR said significantly better and worse outcomes were broadly equally likely. UK DMO said planned gross gilt issuance for 2026/27 would total GBP 250.6bln, above expectations of GBP 249.6bln and the April remit of GBP 246.2bln, while long-dated gilt auctions were planned at GBP 2.3bln, down from GBP 7.4bln previously, across five auctions. UK PM Burnham declined to rule out another Brexit referendum during PMQs, while reaffirming there would be no snap election in the next 12 months. Italian PM Meloni said the 2027 budget would include EUR 26bln in tax cuts and spending increases, with Italy planning to collect around EUR 5bln from banks and insurers and raise its financial transactions tax. The government also plans to collect EUR 700mln from energy companies and a further EUR 700mln from the gaming sector. EU is set to drop its proposed associate membership offer for Canada in favour of softer language promising "even closer association", according to Politico, after the original proposal faced objections from countries including Germany and France and reportedly caught some members off guard.