Newsquawk 米国市場寄り付き前デイリーニュース - 2026年11月10日

US President Trump said he had an excellent conversation with Qatar's PM and that US military action against Iran seems unlikely at this point; reports suggest a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived US-Iran negotiations. US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine, on ending the war have begun in Abu Dhabi; Brent -2.5%. European bourses are in the green; US equity futures trade tentatively ahead of US CPI. DXY was initially subdued, but was then strengthened by hawkish comments from Fed’s Waller; he mentioned that further policy tightening will be needed, and signalled openness to a larger 50bps move. Comments which also spurred a hawkish reaction in USTs, which fell to session troughs; XAU/USD also moved lower. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct), EIA STEO, BoC Minutes, BCB Minutes. Speakers include Fed's Logan, Schmid, Bowman & Paulson, BoE’s Pill, ECB's Cipollone. Supply from the US. Earnings from CoreWeave. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1% DAX40 +1.1% Stoxx 600 +0.7% FTSE 100 +0.3% ES Dec'26 +0.1% RTY Dec'26 U/C NQ Dec'26 -0.2% YM Dec'26 +0.3% FX DXY +0.1% (101.72) EUR/USD U/C (1.1220) USD/JPY +0.1% (158.90) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3425) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -6 ticks Bund Dec'26 +30 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.88% German 10yr Yield 3.24% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -2.3% Brent Jan'27 -2.5% Spot Gold -1.5% LME Copper -0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.2% Ethereum U/C As of 10:45GMT / 05:45EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct), EIA STEO, BoC Minutes, BCB Minutes. Speakers include Fed's Logan, Schmid, Bowman & Paulson, BoE’s Pill, ECB's Cipollone. Supply from the US. Earnings from CoreWeave. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) are firmer across the board, benefiting from the pressure across the energy space with negotiations ongoing on both the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran fronts. As it stands, major indices are stronger by 0.2%-1.3%; the FTSE MIB outperforms. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Banks sit at the top of the pile, joined closely by Construction and then Industrials. Unsurprisingly, Energy lags given the pressure seen in underlying oil prices. As for key movers this morning: Infineon (+5.8%) gained following decent headline metrics, and FY27 outlook impressed, amidst growing AI demand. Sticking with earnings, Vodafone (-1.8%) slips despite lifting outlook, but adj. earnings did fall. Elsewhere, BT (-0.7%) opted to pause its tie-up with SpaceX’s Starlink, amidst the recent Ukraine controversy. Finally, Ferrexpo (-5.5%) shares tumbled after temporarily halting production in Ukraine. US equity futures are mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark. Earlier, contracts moved a touch off best levels following hawkish remarks from the Fed’s Waller. He mentioned that further tightening is needed, and shared his openness to a larger 50bps rate hike if Oct core CPI (M/M) printed at 0.3% or above. The report is set to be published today, where consensus for the core is at 0.2%. FX DXY was initially softer, but now trades flat on the session within a 101.55-101.74 range. Initial pressure stemmed from falling energy prices as the geopolitical backdrop improves, but the index then jumped after hawkish comments from the Fed's Waller. He mentioned that further policy tightening will be needed, adding that a 50bps rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Comments come ahead of the October CPI report this afternoon, whereby the Core M/M metric is expected to print at 0.2%. Therefore, a hotter-than-expected report will likely cement a December rate hike, with money markets potentially even pricing in a chance of a larger 50bps move. EUR/USD is flat and holds within a 1.1216-1.1239 range. The single currency remains at the whim of the USD, with little reaction seen to French Q3 unemployment falling to 8.2% (exp. 8.4%). On the central bank front, ECB's Moulin said he expects policy continuity if either Knot or de Cos takes over as ECB President. GBP/USD is a touch lower and holds within a 1.3427-1.3458 range. BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said, according to the Guardian, a further 25bps hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but that the decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict; little reaction was seen. UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor came in at 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%). USD/JPY trades within a 157.85-158.16 range. Japanese Household Spending fell 6.7% Y/Y (exp. -3.1%), while the current account surplus narrowed more than expected. The BoJ Summary of Opinions showed a member saying the BoJ should raise rates when possible without becoming too cautious. Antipodeans are mixed: NZD/USD is firmer at the top end of a 0.5622-0.5649 range, with RBNZ chief economist Conway saying the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. AUD/USD is softer within a 0.6909-0.6930 range, beneath its 21DMA at 0.6983, after varied Australian consumer and business surveys and mixed Chinese trade data. NOK is softer, with EUR/NOK gradually climbing to the top of a 10.508-10.570 range after Norwegian CPI came in cooler than expected at 3.6% Y/Y (exp. 3.7%), with core CPI at 2.7% (exp. 2.8%). FIXED INCOME A contained start has given way to a Waller-induced bearish skew in USTs, while EGBs and Gilts hold onto initial gains. USTs spent the morning under very modest pressure, of a few ticks at most, in contrast to peers at the time which were modestly firmer. A discrepancy that was potentially a factor of the constructive risk tone lifting US yields early doors, while Europe reacts more to the energy moves as Dutch TTF began lower (though since off lows) and crude continues to falter. Then, USTs were hit and pushed below the 107-00 handle to a 106-27+ base on hawkish remarks from Fed’s Waller. Waller, in short, said a December move is warranted and if October’s Core CPI at 13:30GMT today prints around 0.3% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.3%) or above, then a 50bps hike could be merited. Waller’s remarks saw pricing for a 25bps December hike increase from just over 80%, to >99%. Further out, December 2027 also shifted hawkishly, though the base case remains a 4.25-4.50% rate by then; currently, the target rate is 3.75-4.00%. After CPI, we get commentary from Logan, Schmid, Bowman and Paulson. Back to Europe, Bunds hit a 123.25 peak in the mid-morning, as global crude benchmarks hit lows on continued geopolitical optimism and despite a handful of comments/sources from the Iranian side that are less constructive on the situation. Since, EGBs have faded from best on the readacross from Waller, but also as Dutch TTF pared its losses, after the morning’s regional weather forecasts turned colder. Finally, Gilts opened on the front foot given the energy moves. Hit an 87.29 peak, firmer by about 40 ticks at best. Aside from energy, focus on BoE commentary after Lombardelli made clear that every meeting is live, but that it is too soon to make a call on December, and referenced market pricing as being about 50/50. Since, Breeden spoke on cost-push inflation. Ahead, we have Pill scheduled; it will be interesting if he does not lean towards a December move, given his hawkish bias. UK sold GBP 1bln 5.375% 2056 Gilt: avg. yield 5.54% (prev. 5.517%), b/c 3.75x (prev. 3.84x), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.3bps). Japan sold JPY 450.7bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.36x (prev. 3.88x), average yield 3.847% (prev. 4.109%). Lowest accepted price 104.55 vs prev. 101.05. Average accepted price 104.90 vs prev. 101.21. Tail in price 0.35 vs prev. 0.16. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks are lower and extending declines after Monday's slump, as the mood between the US and Iran turned more constructive (see below for details). WTI Dec'26 trades within a USD 83.88-86.93/bbl range (vs Monday's USD 85.02-91.42/bbl range), while Brent Jan'27 moves within USD 89.21-92.84/bbl (vs Monday's USD 90.56-98.43/bbl range). Ahead, the EIA STEO is due later today. Dutch TTF is lower within a EUR 78.92-82.00/MWh range, having dipped beneath EUR 80/MWh and Monday's 79.00 low before paring, likely tracking the weakness in crude amid hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Spot gold is softer within a USD 4,081.22-4,146.70/oz range (vs Monday's USD 4,054.49-4,148.60/oz range), taking a breather after rallying yesterday alongside lower oil prices and as the USD benefits from hawkish comments from the Fed's Waller. 3M LME copper is softer, at the bottom of a USD 13,837.00-13,991.73/t range (vs Monday's USD 13,776.63-13,938.00/t range), having been underpinned by the constructive mood earlier, with the upside capped as participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, in which imports rose 41.6% Y/Y (exp. 32.0%) and exports 35.2% (exp. 33.5%), although the trade surplus narrowed more than expected. In geopolitics, meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were described as positive, while Trump said the US is "locked and loaded" but that military action seems unlikely at this point. A rerun of yesterday's reports this morning reiterated that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal increases the likelihood of a preliminary agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, with the proposal that would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade, and the US proposal including the release of USD 6-9bln in Iranian assets if an agreement is reached. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Araghchi said there are no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Rezaei and US VP Vance. Ahead, geopolitics will likely dominate the tape (barring US CPI), with traders eyeing US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine mediation efforts, with the trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US meeting taking place in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow. UAE's ADNOC set December Murban Crude OSP at USD +4/bbl vs Dubai quotes, reports suggest. UAE is reportedly selling 1.7mln barrels of Arab light from a salvaged tanker, loading between November 10th and 20th. German Chancellor Merz is in favour of maintaining the EU's approach to emissions trading, Handelsblatt reported; the Chancellor is against weakening the regulation any further. TRADE/TARIFFS USTR announces the US extends the trade probe regarding Vietnam's IP protection for three months to the end of February. White House considering new export controls on NVIDIA (NVDA) advanced chips, according to The Information. China's Finance Ministry said Vice Premier He Lifeng and Canada's Minister of Finance and Trade Minister co-chaired the second Canada-China economic and financial strategic dialogue. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to multilateralism and support for a transparent and predictable trade and investment environment. Both sides welcomed the implementation of bilateral local currency swap arrangements and recent positive progress in China-Canada trade consultations. The Finance Ministry, financial regulators and central banks of the two countries separately signed a memorandum of understanding on fiscal cooperation. Canadian Finance Minister said Canada modifies tariff relief measures, extending the horizontal remission for US tariffs by one year to June 30th 2028. Canada tariff relief will include non-steel goods used in mining, quarrying, or the extraction of oil and gas. Canada is granting targeted tariff relief for certain imported goods that are in short supply in the Canadian market. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP UK Barclays Consumer Spending in October rose 2.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.0% increase in September), which is the largest increase since July 2025. UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%). Swedish Construction Output (Sep YY) 3.1% (Prev. 3.9%). Swedish Industrial Production (Sep YY) -3.7% (Prev. 5.8%). Swedish Industrial Production (Sep MM) -3.2% (Prev. 5.4%). Swedish New Orders (Sep YY) 8.4% (Prev. 3.8%). French Unemployment Rate (Q3) 8.2% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.3%). Norwegian Core CPI (Oct MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%); Norwegian Core CPI (Oct YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.0%). Norwegian CPI (Oct MM) 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%); Norwegian CPI (Oct YY) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.4%). CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Waller (Voter) said that further policy tightening will be needed; Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATES: Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Waller would support quarter-point rate hike in December even if October CPI improves. Waller said further policy tightening will be needed. FORWARD GUIDANCE: Waller said what matters is that promised hikes are delivered within a reasonable period of time. Waller said he was willing to wait on policy tightening in October. INFLATION: Waller said US inflation is too high. Waller said September's inflation data were bad. Waller said he is particularly concerned about the breadth of price increases. Waller said Fed staff analyses suggest more producer price increases ahead. Waller said Fed staff analyses point to potential for energy price shock to be more persistent. LABOUR MARKET: Waller said labour market is solid, with supply and demand roughly in balance. Waller said employment is close to the Fed's goal. Waller said it is unclear whether labour market is as healthy as the unemployment rate suggests. Waller said questions over labour market dynamism and productivity growth need more research. GDP GROWTH: Waller suspects GDP growth is backing off in current quarter. Waller expects output to continue growing at a solid pace. Fed's Waller (Q&A) said he expects further tightening "sooner rather than later" to return inflation towards 2% over the medium term. A 0.3% MM rise in US October CPI would indicate inflation is moving away from target and would require more aggressive policy action. Does not think we will see broad-based productivity gains from AI for a while. In the context of recent equity moves, said that is generally not too important for his monetary assessment. Revised up his neutral view, and in that context, policy is not as tight as he thought it might be some 18 months ago. At a minimum they need to take back the three insurance cuts. But, he is not "super hawkish", does not want to "slam" the US economy. Not looking to tighten by 150bps or 200bps. The balance sheet is not a tool that will be used for tightening. Does not think his peers on the Fed believe rates are in the correct place. Recent pullback in market pricing for the Fed has moved it to be more in-line with the Fed's view. BoJ Summary of Opinions noted that a member said it is appropriate to continue raising rates as underlying inflation nears the price target, while a member said maintaining policy is suitable to assess risks around the economy and prices a little more. ECB's Lane said it would be prudent to hike rates in December if incoming data do not materially change the outlook, speaking to Bloomberg. ECB's Moulin expects policy continuity if either Knot or de Cos takes over as ECB President. BoE's Breeden said firms are now very good at adapting to cost shocks. BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said a further 25bps rate hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but a decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict, the Guardian reported. RBNZ chief economist Conway said inflation is too high in New Zealand and the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. Pockets of weakness remain in the domestic economy. There is clear excess capacity in the labour market. Risk is that cost shocks become broader inflation pressures. PBoC injected CNY 190bln via overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7167 vs exp. 6.6655 (prev. 6.7188). Riksbank Minutes: overall, members are skewed towards further tightening, but the exact timing is less clear. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE A Russian delegation has departed for Abu Dhabi for talks with the US and Ukraine, TASS reported citing a source. Recent reporting suggests talks have paused for a break. Russia's Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a cargo vessel and a tanker in the Black Sea, according to IFX. UK Defence Secretary Streeting said UK and Russia need a new back channel of communication to avoid the risk of a miscalculation, according to FT. US Envoy Kushner said that "the meeting with the Ukrainians, Russians and European partners was very positive". Ukrainian official Umerov said the Ukrainian delegation has begun meetings in the UAE; the first meeting in Abu Dhabi is with European, NATO and EU representatives, alongside US envoys Witkoff and Kushner. US-IRAN: Qatar's Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts are ongoing, positive responses from both sides, and mediation has gained significant momentum in recent days. An Iranian diplomatic source denies reports of an agreement with the US on uranium enrichment at 3.67% or other nuclear issues, insisting Tehran's two-day proposal remains unchanged and no detailed nuclear discussions have taken place, according to Avash. A Qatari-Pakistani proposal increases the likelihood of a preliminary agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, according to Al Hadath citing sources; US proposal includes releasing USD 6-9bln in Iranian assets if an agreement is reached. Qatari-Pakistani proposal would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade. US President Trump posted that he had an excellent conversation with Qatar's PM and discussed Iran, while he noted that several Gulf states would prefer the status quo, in other words, a continuation of the naval blockade and the new Operation Iron Gate. US President Trump said US is locked and loaded with the best equipment ever made, but adds that they don't think there's going to be a reason to use it. Iran militarily is effectively over. Iran is talking to us very politely. Qatar's PM Al Thani said he discussed the region with US President Trump and discussed ways to progress US-Iran talks. Qatar's PM has made an unscheduled stop at the G7 to brief Europeans and Saudi Arabia on the Middle East situation following talks with US President Trump. Iranian VP Aref said "Whether peace is achieved or not, the path of confrontation with the enemy will continue". Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said there are no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei and US Vice President Vance, Al Mayadeen reported. Solution to the conflict is in diplomacy and the implementation of the conditions Iran has outlined. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said war on Iran has inflicted grave damage on the US government and called on the US to stop publishing false news about illusory negotiations. The time has come to surrender to the seven conditions that Iran has set out again and again. Adviser to the Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force said one of the areas of progress for Iranian specialists is designing missiles that use waves emitted from radar systems, enabling the identification and targeting of the enemy's radar equipment. The 'Hormuz' missile was designed with the aim of countering radar systems and is capable of homing in on sources of radar wave emissions. Sound of an explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, Sabereen reported. "Explosion of two violating oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz", IRIB reports. SAUDI-HOUTHI: Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two missiles launched by Yemen's Houthis towards Riyadh. Saudi airstrikes continue against residential areas in Yemen's Saada, according to reports cited by SNN. OTHERS Israel conducts an airstrike on Al-Qantara in southern Lebanon, according to Mehr News. US President Trump said on call with C-Span that Venezuela gave the US 1mln barrels last week and that we will find out whether an Iran deal will happen. Iraq will temporarily close its Mandali border crossing with Iran from Friday to complete technical requirements. Will reopen the Sheeb border crossing with Iran. Gulf Cooperation Council states agree to establish a military command headquarters in Kuwait. North Korean leader Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, criticised South Korea's announcement regarding the landmine blast and criticised the UN Secretary General for echoing Seoul's position and breaching neutrality, according to KCNA. Yemeni news sources report Saudi airstrikes on a gas station and an oil company building in Sana'a and a missile strike on the eastern city of Saada, according to IRNA. Taiwan said China is conducting 'area denial' drills in the Western Pacific. CRYPTO Bitcoin is a touch firmer this morning and trades around the USD 74.3k, whilst Ethereum is flat and holds around USD 2.1k. APAC TRADE APAC stocks traded higher as markets continued to claw back the losses from the recent tech slump, while lower oil prices and US-Iran optimism also provided some encouragement. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, industrials and the mining sector amid tailwinds from a lower yield environment in Australia. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 60,000 level with SoftBank spearheading the advances amid the tech rebound and with stocks unfazed by the weaker-than-expected Household Spending data from Japan. KOSPI benefitted from the tech rally with a sidecar triggered in early trade but is off today's best levels. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive but lagged behind regional peers as participants digested the somewhat mixed trade data in which dollar-denominated Exports and Imports topped forecasts, although Trade Balance was at a narrower-than-forecast surplus and yuan-denominated Exports slowed. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japanese Finance Minister said BoJ is estimated to make JPY 1tln from faster ETF sales and it is undecided how much BoJ will remit to the government. No impact on BoJ operations from how much proceeds the government expects from the BoJ's ETF sales. Some smaller banks are worried about money shifting to retail JGBs. Nothing decided on preferential tax treatment for retail JGBs and will leave the debate to the LDP. New Zealand PM Luxon meets with Opportunity Party leader Wong ahead of a pact. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Japanese Economy Watchers Survey Outlook (Oct) 46.5 (Prev. 47.4); Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Current (Oct) 46.1 vs. Exp. 46.8 (Prev. 47.0). Japanese Bank Lending (Oct YY) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.3%); Japanese Current Account (Sep) 2.372tln vs. Exp. 3.354tln (Prev. 4.062tln). Japanese Household Spending (Sep MM) -2.8% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%); Japanese Household Spending (Sep YY) -6.7% vs. Exp. -3.1% (Prev. -3.1%). Chinese Exports (CNY) (Oct YY) 28.7% (Prev. 29.6%); Chinese Imports (CNY) (Oct YY) 34.7% (Prev. 24.6%); Chinese Trade Balance Yuan (Oct) 712.78B vs. Exp. 859B (Prev. 905.97B). Australian NAB Business Confidence (Oct) -15 (Prev. -13); Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov) 82.6 (Prev. 80.4); Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Nov) 2.7% (Prev. -4.7%). NOTABLE APAC EQUITY HEADLINES Softbank (9984 JT) H1 2026 (JPY): Net -768bln (prev. 2.9tln), Revenue 4.24tln (prev. 3.7tln). Q2 net loss JPY 1.12tln (exp. profit of 129bln). H1 results include the company's first quarterly net loss in almost two years. Losses were driven by declining valuations of key technology holdings, including Arm (ARM), Intel (INTC) and Coupang (CPNG), amid concerns over AI investment spending and demand. Vision Fund recorded a loss of JPY 81.6bln. SoftBank held a 13% stake in OpenAI at the beginning of October, increasing its exposure to developments in the AI sector. SoftBank (9984 JT) books a USD 3.7bln charge related to procurement for US data centres. TSMC (2330 TT) October revenue rose 31% Y/Y to TWD 32.0bln. Honda (7267 JT) H1 2026 (JPY): Net 516bln (prev. 311bln), Revenue 12tln (prev. 10.6tln); cuts FY global vehicle sales forecast to 3.16mln units (prev. guidance 3.39mln).