Newsquawk デイリー欧州オープニングニュース - 2026年11月12日

US VP Vance is considering a face-to-face with a top Iranian official, WSJ reported; weighing modestly on the energy space. APAC sentiment was choppy, but ultimately pressured, with further reporting around the Nvidia CEO hitting tech. European futures point to a modestly firmer cash open, US futures remain in the red, NQ -0.9%. USD remains bid, to the detriment of G10 peers across the board, USD/JPY not too fazed by Mimura. Fixed income off lows on the energy move and some haven allure amid the ongoing tech pressures, JGBs slip after firmer-than-expected PPI. Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Q3/Sep), US Jobless Claims (Nov/07), Existing Home Sales (Oct), Speakers including Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams & Barr, ECB's Lagarde, Supply from Italy, UK & US, Earnings from Cisco, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz, Munich Re, Poste Italiane & Burberry. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 -0.7% ASX 200 -0.1% Hang Seng -1.1% Shanghai Comp -0.5% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 +0.4% DAX Dec'26 +0.9% ES Dec'26 -0.4% NQ Dec'26 -0.9% FX DXY +0.1% (103.00) EUR/USD -0.1% (1.1077) USD/JPY -0.1% (159.76) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3258) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +3.5 ticks Bund Dec'26 +13 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.99% German 10yr Yield 3.30% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -0.4% Brent Jan'27 -0.3% Spot Gold -0.2% LME Copper -0.8% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.5% Ethereum -1.5% IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said the US has won in Iran, while he added that the conflict would end soon and the world would then be a better place. US VP Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official as he emerges as the lead negotiator with Iran, in an effort to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party, according to WSJ citing officials. Furthermore, sources said US President Trump told aides he is open to VP Vance restarting talks with Iran and has empowered him to negotiate, although the discussions remain preliminary. US military said the blockade had prevented Iran from exporting 30bln bbls of oil, according to Al Arabiya. It was separately reported that US forces were working around the clock to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping while strictly enforcing the naval blockade against Iran. US officials have reportedly tried and failed to pressure Iran's neighbours into closing their border crossings, according to US and Iraqi officials cited by the New York Times. Iran's Security Chief Rezaei warned if the US launches another war against Iran, every military base involved in the aggression, from West Asia to Europe, will be a legitimate target for Iran’s lethal strikes. Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said an agreement could be reached with Washington if it adhered to what had been agreed and avoided behaviour that undermined trust, according to Al Jazeera. He also stated that the main obstacle to an agreement was Iran's lack of trust in Washington and its attempts to impose excessive demands. Ghalibaf warned that US President Trump would face another defeat if he decided to resume the war, adding that Iran was determined to overcome the state of neither war nor peace, not necessarily through negotiations but through sustained deterrence. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghaei said the US falsely portrays itself as a victim of Iranian terrorism, while he accused the US of war crimes and state terrorism, according to ISNA Iranian senior officials believe the US is planning either further military strikes or an ever-tightening economic stranglehold that will push Tehran into retaliatory action, according to The Guardian citing the Telegram of an advisor to Iran's Ghalibaf. It was separately reported that an advisor to Iran's Ghalibaf said containing the UAE was the best way to attack the siege. Iran attacked ship navigation systems on Oman’s Didamar island in the Strait of Hormuz, while it was also reported that missiles were launched from the Iranian coast towards the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by Houthis towards the western region. Israeli bombing targeted the Nasser Medical Complex west of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, while Israel's military later said it struck a senior Hamas figure and other militants at Nasser Hospital. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks closed in the green on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq outperforming as technology stocks extended their recovery amid the ongoing AI rebound. Sentiment was supported by strong earnings from CoreWeave (CRWV) after-hours Tuesday, with shares rallying 24.5%, reversing some of the recent weakness and helping ease concerns surrounding the sector. The report also boosted other neocloud names, with attention turning to Nebius (NBIS) earnings on Thursday for further insight into the sector. Given the rebound in neocloud names easing some data centre concerns, hyperscalers have seen some pressure, with META, MSFT, and AMZN all closing lower, as it may reduce the demand for them to pick up some of the excess slack. SPX +1.27% at 7,617, NDX +2.28% at 28,374, DJI +0.48% at 52,481, RUT +0.86% at 2,846. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump reportedly authorised a crackdown on companies suspected of diverting NVIDIA's (NVDA) advanced AI chips to China, according to Axios citing sources. Chinese AI firms are rushing to secure more NVIDIA (NVDA)-powered computing capacity at overseas data centres and are concerned the NVIDIA CEO spy scandal may prompt Washington to restrict remote use of advanced chips, according to sources. Alleged Chinese spy in the NVIDIA (NVDA) scandal Alice Huang is reportedly in China and is living in Beijing with the knowledge of security officials, according to Bloomberg. Top Democrats target the Trump administration's NVIDIA (NVDA)-China records, with US Senators Warren and Coons asking for documents to be preserved, which is often the initial step before formal congressional investigations, according to WSJ. Furthermore, Senator Warren's office stated that the Trump administration must keep all documents and communications related to NVIDIA's exports of advanced AI chips to China. US Secretary of State Rubio and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed US President Trump's upcoming trip to China. EU and UK are poised to delay a 10% tariff on electric cars amid concerns it would make them more vulnerable against Chinese competition, according to FT. NOTABLE HEADLINES NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang was said to have had a relationship with an NVIDIA executive, according to NYT. It was separately reported that NVIDIA was preparing to oust CEO Huang and that the board was meeting to determine his future, according to WSJ, while some NVIDIA directors favour CFO Kress as interim CEO, according to Semafor. Democrat Colom beat Republican incumbent Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate race. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks were ultimately lower in two-way trade and with gains ultimately reversed as the momentum from the continued tech rebound on Wall St was clouded by the fallout from a report regarding NVIDIA CEO Huang's extramarital affair with a Co. executive. This spurred doubts regarding his future at the helm of the tech giant, with the board in a meeting on his future and said to be preparing to oust him. ASX 200 finished slightly lower as strength in financials and real estate was counterbalanced by underperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses, while participants also digested firmer-than-expected PPI data, as well as comments from Takaichi-appointed BoJ board member Asada, who stated that they need to watch downside economic risks and need to be cautious about the pace of rate hikes. KOSPI saw two-way price action amid the tech-related headwinds. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated, with weakness seen in tech and ecommerce stocks, as the likes of Alibaba and JD.com underperformed after the tepid Singles' Day sales growth underscored weak consumer spending, while there were reportedly concerns that the NVIDIA CEO spy scandal may prompt Washington to restrict remote use of advanced chips. US equity futures were pressured, with the E-mini Nasdaq 100 hit amid the NVIDIA-related fallout. European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Wednesday. FX DXY kept afloat after strengthening again yesterday in a continuation of the momentum from the recent CPI data and hawkish Fed speak. EUR/USD gave up ground to the firmer buck and slipped to its weakest level in over a year beneath the 1.1100 handle, with the single currency not helped by quiet newsflow. GBP/USD remained subdued after failing to sustain the 1.3300 status, although further downside was somewhat cushioned with BoE’s Greene noting it is appropriate “to proactively tighten our monetary policy stance to lean against the risk of wage growth getting stuck at higher levels”, while participants await a slew of data from the UK, including GDP figures for Q3. USD/JPY held on to the prior day's spoils after climbing to just shy of the 160.00 level where it hit some resistance, while the recent price action prompted slight jawboning from Japan's top FX diplomat Mimura, who stated that recent currency moves are too fast. Antipodeans were lacklustre amid the somewhat mixed and cautious sentiment during the session. FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures rebounded from the prior day's trough as oil prices declined and with risk sentiment clouded by the fallout from NVIDIA CEO's extramarital affairs, which has raised doubts regarding his future at the helm of the tech giant, although the gains are capped as participants await Fed speakers and supply. Bund futures nursed recent losses amid lower energy prices and few fresh catalysts from the bloc. 10yr JGB futures failed to sustain an early rebound with headwinds seen in the second half of Tokyo trade following a 5yr auction, while there was also recent firmer-than-expected PPI data. COMMODITIES Crude futures were lower following a report that US VP Vance is considering face-to-face talks with Iran's top security official Rezaei, while US envoys Kushner and Witkoff will be visiting Russia today to meet with President Putin following the recent trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines are to set up shared oil reserves, with Japan spearheading the project after the Iran war created ASEAN energy shortages, according to Nikkei. Spot gold was subdued with prices beneath the psychological USD 4,000/oz level amid a firmer buck. Copper futures retreated as risk sentiment gradually deteriorated overnight. CRYPTO Bitcoin gradually declined after stalling around the USD 74,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES BoJ Board Member Asada said they must be mindful of the expected impact of past rate hikes on the economy and that financial conditions remain accommodative, while he added that they need to watch downside economic risks from rate hikes and need to be cautious about the pace of rate hikes. Asada stated that underlying inflation is hovering around levels consistent with the BoJ's price target and that inflation is not necessarily driven by demand, as well as noted that the economy and consumer spending are not particularly strong. Furthermore, he noted that with the BoJ's policy rate now within the estimated neutral range, further rate hikes could have a greater impact on the economy and that they must be mindful of the risk that rate hikes could hurt the economy and push down underlying inflation. DATA RECAP Japanese PPI MM (Oct) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.3%); YY (Oct) 7.1% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.8%) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE US has asked Russia to submit a new proposal for a future security agreement with Europe that includes Russian steps to ease tension with the continent, according to Axios citing sources. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's envoys reject ceasefire proposals. Russian forces hit energy facilities and a military storage site in the Kyiv region, while it also struck a Ukrainian cargo vessel, according to Russia's Defence Ministry. Romania's President offered to pay for the US to keep its troops stationed in the country amid security concerns due to Russian drone incursions, according to FT. OTHER US State Department said Secretary of State Rubio and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi agreed on the importance of leader-level conversations to advance goals such as peace and denuclearisation, including in any trilateral summit with Russia. South Korea's Presidential Office said South Korea anticipates progress on Ukraine issues after productive talks in Paris, and the possibility of US-North Korea contact around APEC appears low. Chinese President Xi says resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving the complete reunification of the motherland is an unwavering historical mission of the Chinese Communist Party, while he added that they will leave no room for Taiwan independence separatist activities in any form. Xi also stated they will fully consider the realities in Taiwan and take into account the interests and sentiment of Taiwan compatriots. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES BoE's Greene said it was appropriate to proactively tighten the monetary policy stance to guard against the risk of wage growth becoming entrenched at higher levels, according to FT. France signalled it may support Spain's ECB President candidate de Cos to succeed Lagarde, according to FT. DATA RECAP UK RICS House Price Balance (Oct) -36% vs. Exp. -32% (Prev. -32%)