Newsquawk 欧州市場ラップ－2026年11月4日

Democrats are projected to take control of both chambers of Congress; Trump said he will accept the result and work with Democrats. European bourses rally, with Health Care and Utilities benefiting and Defence hit; US equity futures firmer, while the NQ lags. Crude slumps and Dutch TTF falls beneath EUR 90/MWh, while spot gold surges above USD 4,000/oz. EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.7%) broadly benefited from the risk-on tone set out by the US midterm results. The IBEX 35 (+3.2%) outperformed its peers, with gains across Europe between 1.0% and 3.2%. Sectoral performance digested the Democratic sweep (see the relevant section in the wrap). Clean energy names (Orsted +4.5% / Vestas +2.7%) both moved higher; defence stocks were hampered (BAE Systems -1.5% / Leonardo -0.5%). As for key post-earnings movers: Novo Nordisk (+4.8%, hiked outlook), Pandora (+10.6%, Q3 sales beat and lifted 2026 outlook), BMW (+3%, announces a profit warning but accelerated job cuts), Continental (+5.6%, Q3 in line and lifted guidance). US equity futures were initially hit on early indications of a Democratic Sweep. However, as the Republicans won the Louisiana PSC races and as President Trump expressed an openness to working with the Dems, the risk tone improved. ES and NQ have opened firmer, with gains of c. 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively. In terms of stock specifics: Renewable stocks gain (FSLR +7%, PLUG +7%), as do hyperscalers (AMZN +3.5%, MSFT +3.5%). The latter benefits from the notion that they are more likely to grow their share of AI compute than they were before. Amazon was supported as Louisiana narrowly stayed Republican, where the tech behemoth has a USD 18bln data-centre project. FX DXY was lower within a 101.10-101.73 range, pressured as projections pointed to a Democratic sweep of Congress, more so than markets had expected; a sweep is seen as USD-negative given the lower growth implications, lower yields and added friction in passing policy. US ADP Employment Change topped forecasts at 86K (exp. 69K), while the US Treasury kept coupon auction sizes unchanged at its Quarterly Refunding. EUR/USD was firmer, at the top end of a 1.1186-1.1273 range, benefiting from the softer USD and with the US midterms seen as a relative positive for Europe. EZ HICP Flash was in line at 4.0% Y/Y (prev. 3.8%), with core steady at 2.5%, while the EZ Composite PMI Final came in below expectations at 51.7 (exp. 51.9). Elsewhere, the Netherlands nominated Knot for the role of ECB President. GBP/USD was firmer within a 1.3405-1.3503 range, while EUR/GBP traded within a 0.8334-0.8359 range. The UK Services PMI Final came in below expectations at 52.8 (exp. 53.1). UK-specific newsflow was light. USD/JPY traded within a 157.38-158.74 range, with the JPY unable to benefit as much as its peers amid the shift to a risk-on tone; Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said authorities will closely monitor market movements with a high sense of urgency. Antipodeans outperformed, with NZD/USD within a 0.5581-0.5646 range and AUD/USD within a 0.6954-0.7022 range, as G10s flipped to a risk-on tone after the Republican wins in the Louisiana PSC races and Trump's conciliatory remarks regarding the midterms and Iran. FIXED INCOME A notable APAC session on the US midterm results, where the blue wave supported USTs and weighed on yields, before unwinding into the morning as Trump spoke and some local results went Rep. Thereafter, action picked up modestly into the European morning, though USTs remained off the APAC 106-30+ peak. Since then, the main updates have been US data (no sustained move on ADP) and the QRA. The latter, and accompanying releases, sparked long-end pressure, resulting in 20yr and 30yr yields seeing gains of just under 10bps and 5bps respectively; curve steeper, overall. The move in the long-end was potentially a function of participants unwinding some expectations for an adjustment to the long-end and/or 20yr in this release; while there is some commentary that suggests a change could be coming, there was no formal announcement. Elsewhere, EGBs directionally in-fitting with USTs overnight. But, in the early hours, some modest pressure was seen on the region’s primary weather update turning colder once again and supporting local energy benchmarks early on. Albeit, this narrative was swept away by the broader energy moves as participants take the view that given his conciliatory tone overnight and the recent FT report, US President Trump is on balance not immediately turning to kinetic action on Iran. Set to end the European day with gains of about 10 ticks, in 122.29 to 122.77 parameters for Bunds. No move to the region's PMIs (mixed), inflation (hot, but as expected) or commentary (mostly sticking to the script). Finally, Gilts digested the overnight updates at the open. Started the day lower by a handful of ticks, before lifting to a modest peak early on and then climbing further to 86.54, firmer by 60 ticks, driven higher by the energy narrative. Reminder, the BoE is set to hike on Thursday, commencing a cycle of yet to be determined duration and magnitude; while a hike is expected and c. 100bps of tightening is priced, the risks to the BoE are very much on the dovish side of things. US Treasury QRA: USD 125bln of refunding, raising new cash of USD 28bln; expects to keep coupon and FRN auction sizes unchanged for "the next several quarters" (omitting the "at least" guidance). To buy back up to USD 70bln across the curve for liquidity support, and to convert the 7yr to a quarterly new issue with two reopenings. TBAC said increases in coupon auction sizes would likely be appropriate in H2 FY27. Germany sold EUR 1.66bln vs exp. EUR 2bln 2.60% 2041 and 1.25% 2048 Bund. 2.60% 2041: b/c 1.3x (prev. 2.0x), average yield 3.57% (prev. 3.50%). 1.25% 2048: b/c 2.3x (prev. 1.4x), average yield 3.67% (prev. 3.80%). Meta (META) received a record EUR 53bln of demand for its debut six-part EUR bond sale, reportedly seeking as much as EUR 9bln. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks were lower, having initially dipped overnight after US President Trump told the FT there is no immediate plan to strike Iran, before recovering and then turning lower through the European session with oil down around USD 1.50-2.00/bbl despite limited fresh catalysts, potentially as the near-term US strike premium faded after the midterms and following Trump's more conciliatory remarks. Benchmarks saw brief upside of around USD 0.30/bbl after Iran's leader warned of a much broader response if the US repeats its aggression. Elsewhere, UAE reportedly considers building a third crude oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Dec'26 traded within a USD 93.11-97.15/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 93.59-98.82/bbl range), while Brent Jan'27 moved within USD 100.65-104.96/bbl (vs yesterday's USD 100.80-107.24/bbl range). Dutch TTF was lower within a EUR 87.18-94.50/MWh range, slipping beneath EUR 90/MWh, potentially tracking the pressure in crude. Spot gold surged above USD 4,000/oz within a USD 3,920-4,051/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 3,896-3,971/oz range), as the Democrats' projected sweep of Congress weighed on the USD and US yields. Spot silver outperformed within a USD 48.97-52.25/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 48.62-50.87/oz range), while platinum and palladium futures were also firmer. 3M LME Copper was lower within a USD 13,832.48-14,143.00/t range (vs yesterday's USD 13,896.05-14,286.35/t range), fading its earlier recovery, potentially as AI-linked names came under renewed pressure. Freeport (FCX) approves a USD 4.5bln expansion and modernisation programme for its Bagdad copper and molybdenum operation in Arizona.. UAE reportedly considers building a third crude oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. EUROPEAN DATA European HICP (Oct YY) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4% (Prev. 3.8%). European Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Oct YY) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%). European HICP (Oct MM) 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%). European S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Oct) 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 53.1). European S&P Global Services PMI Final (Oct) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 53.0). German S&P Global Services PMI Final (Oct) 52.5 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 52.9). German S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Oct) 53.4 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 53.8). French S&P Global Services PMI Final (Oct) 46.2 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 51.2). French S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Oct) 46.6 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 51.1). Italian S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7). Italian S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 50.8 (Prev. 51.0). Spanish S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 57.2 vs. Exp. 57.6 (Prev. 58.3). Spanish S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 56.8 (Prev. 56.8). UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Oct) 52.8 vs. Exp. 53.1 (Prev. 52.1). UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Oct) 52.9 vs. Exp. 53.1 (Prev. 52.0). Spanish Unemployment Change (Oct) 43.128K vs. Exp. 18.7K (Prev. 23.587K). Spanish Tourist Arrivals (Sep YY) 4.3% (Prev. 9.2%). Swedish Services PMI (Oct) 55.7 (Prev. 57.4). Norwegian House Price Index (Oct YY) 1.9% (Prev. 2.4%). German Engineering Orders (Sep) +14% Y/Y (Domestic Orders +22%, Foreign Orders +11%), VDMA said. TRADE/TARIFFS China and Canada hold their first energy ministerial dialogue, agreeing to strengthen cooperation in traditional energy, renewables, civil nuclear power and uranium resources. CENTRAL BANKS Riksbank raised its policy rate by 25bps to 2.00%, as expected; if the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, it is likely that the policy rate will be raised further in the coming year. Inflation is expected to continue rising, with global inflationary pressures elevated due to supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East. Netherlands nominates Knot for the role of ECB President. Former ECB policymaker Knot said core inflation and second-round effects will likely pick up, and that the ECB would respond, when appropriate, with a "hawkish-leaning" policy. ECB Wage Tracker: Annual 2026 2.3% (prev. 2.2%); Q3 2027 2.4% (1st estimate). Polish Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 3.75% vs. Exp. 3.75% (Prev. 3.75%). GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST Iran's leader warned of a much broader response if the US repeats its aggression, while dismissing expectations of a change in US behaviour following the midterm elections; Tehran will not make concessions to the US, Fars reported. Iran described Trump's midterm election defeat as another sign of Iran's victory in the war, while stating that Tehran's policies will remain unchanged regardless of which US party holds power, the IRGC posted. IRGC commander adviser said Iran would respond to any US or Israeli attack with a new doctrine and technology, warning that retaliation could extend beyond US bases in countries such as the UAE and Bahrain, NAYA reported. IRGC political affairs official said Iran will expel the US from West Asia and the Persian Gulf, Al Alam reported. Tehran Mayor Zakani said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the US fulfils its commitments, and that unconventional threats could prompt a change in Iran's nuclear doctrine. A senior Iranian official said Tehran remains far from reaching an agreement with the US to end the conflict, despite mediation efforts, CCTV reported. IAEA chief Grossi said no nuclear activity or equipment was found inside Pickaxe Mountain during the agency's last inspection, and that Tehran does not possess a nuclear weapon, Sabereen reported. Pakistani PM Sharif described recent diplomatic engagements with Iran and other regional countries as very positive, Nournews reported. Yemeni Armed Forces claimed six ballistic missiles struck Saudi-backed forces in Saudi Arabia's eastern Al-Jawf province, alongside drone and missile strikes in Jizan and Najran, Fars reported; Saudi Civil Defence issued early warnings in Najran. Explosions were reported in Al-Suwaira in Iraq's Wasit province and at the headquarters of Kurdish separatists in Erbil, according to Tasnim, Naya and Fars. NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS US Senate Majority Leader Thune plans to run for Senate minority leader in the next Congress after Republicans lost control of the chamber, Fox News Digital reported. DDHQ projects Democrat El-Sayed to win the Michigan Senate race, while DDHQ called Nebraska for the Republicans; the Mississippi Senate race is too close to call, Punchbowl reported. China's Foreign Ministry, following the US midterm elections, said Beijing is willing to strengthen communication with the US and work together to implement the consensus reached by the two countries' leaders. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US ADP Employment Change (Oct) 86K vs. Exp. 69K (Prev. 90K). US Trade Balance (Sep) -105.00B vs. Exp. -108B (Prev. -105.60B). US MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct/30) -1.2% (Prev. 3.4%). US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct/30) 7.30% (Prev. 7.37%). US S&P Global Services PMI Final (Oct) 56.1 vs. Exp. 57.9 (Prev. 58.8) US S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Oct) 55.9 vs. Exp. 57.6 (Prev. 58.4) - Indicative of GDP rising at an annualised rate of over 4%, and notes of a worrying intensification of inflationary pressures. Canadian S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 48.1 (Prev. 48.3) Canadian S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 48.1 (Prev. 48.7) Canadian Trade Balance (Sep) 5.35B vs. Exp. 4.1B (Prev. 4.95B). LATAM DATA Brazilian IPC-Fipe Inflation (Oct MM) 0.44% (Prev. 0.51%). NOTABLE ASIA-PAC NEWS Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said authorities will closely monitor market movements with a high sense of urgency. Japan is to ask US-based tech companies to share previously undisclosed vulnerability information, Nikkei reported.