米国市場総括：テクノロジー企業の業績不振でAI売りが広がり、NDXが一時調整局面入り

SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries steepen, Crude up, Dollar mixed, Gold down REAR VIEW: Fed's Logan says at least two more 25bps hikes are needed; Fed's Musalem says hiking sooner reduces the risk of hitting the wider economy; BoJ holds rates as expected; INTC slides on a weak Q4 guide; AMZN sales and outlook disappoint; SNDK operating cash flow misses expectations; Blackstone reportedly says Anthropic may not secure an IG rating after its IPO. COMING UP: Data: Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q4). Events: Chinese NPC Standing Committee (2-6 Nov). Speakers: ECB's Vujcic; Fed's Goolsbee. Earnings: Apple. MIDTERM PREVIEW: Democrats Eye Sweep: House Likely, Senate Within Reach. Click here for the full preview. WEEK IN FOCUS: Highlights include US Midterm Election, NFP, ISM PMIs, RBA, BoE and EZ CPI. Click here for the full report. WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Earnings season continues with highlights including AAPL, AMD, PLTR, and QCOM. Click here for the full report. MARKET WRAP Stocks tumbled on Friday in a tech-led sell-off, which saw the Nasdaq 100 briefly enter correction territory following a slew of woeful tech earnings and updates. Intel (INTC) slumped following weak results, disappointing next-quarter guidance and cautious commentary on the PC market, weighing on broader PC names. Meanwhile, SanDisk's (SNDK) earnings pressured the memory sector, while Amazon (AMZN) shares initially slid following a weak quarter and disappointing FCF, although they managed to claw back much of their losses. AI concerns also mounted after Blackstone told Anthropic that it may not receive an investment-grade credit rating, according to the FT. The majority of sectors were hit, particularly Tech, which dropped over 4%, while Industrials, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary also lagged amid the AI and mega-cap stock rout. Energy stocks outperformed alongside Consumer Staples, Utilities, Health Care and Real Estate, with higher crude prices supporting Energy, while the defensive nature of the other sectors helped them hold up in the risk-off trade. The VIX peaked just shy of 24, but as stocks moved off their lows in the final hour of trade, it retreated below 20. Crude prices rallied ahead of next week's midterms, with attention on whether US President Trump will opt to attack Iran following the election results. Crude moved off its highs amid several reports of Qatari mediators working to facilitate a deal between the US and Iran, with some reports suggesting progress had been made. Meanwhile, a Pakistani military spokesman expressed cautious optimism regarding US-Iran mediation. The Treasury yield curve saw further steepening, with long-end yields rising while front-end yields declined, supported by a flight-to-quality bid, continuing the trend seen since Wednesday's FOMC amid the lack of explicit forward guidance. Fed speak leaned hawkish, with Logan, Musalem and Barkin all signalling the need for further tightening. FX price action was much more contained than in other asset classes. CAD outperformed amid higher crude prices, with the EU and Canada also announcing a new alliance. The Yen saw some strength overnight following the BoJ decision, which kept rates on hold as expected, with one hawkish dissenter, while Governor Ueda left the door open to a December rate hike. Crypto assets and crypto-linked stocks plunged following reports of a Binance hack involving USD 6.3bln in digital assets. Gold and silver prices also fell to fresh YTD lows. Attention next week turns to the US midterm elections, with betting markets pricing a Democratic sweep at around 70%. The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement is also due before attention shifts to the October NFP report, while Apple (AAPL), AMD (AMD) and Qualcomm (QCOM) earnings will also be in the limelight. FED Logan (2026 Voter, Hawk): Said the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes, arguing that inflation is not on a path back to the 2% target and that this is unacceptable. She favours a gradual approach to tightening, noting that skipping a meeting would not change the ultimate policy destination and would allow households, businesses and investors to adjust to higher rates while reducing the risk of a sharp economic slowdown. Logan suggested that a pause after 50bps of additional tightening would be appropriate to assess whether further action is needed. On the economy, she highlighted strong growth and solid consumer spending, with accommodative financial conditions continuing to provide support. She added that while longer-term yields have risen, they are not restraining activity as much as might be expected, with higher market rates signalling that investors believe the Fed still has more work to do on inflation. Barkin (2027 voter): Said the direction of travel for monetary policy is straightforward, but the question is the pace. On inflation, he noted that US businesses are facing significant cost pressures, which they report are broad-based, and that they are planning to pass these increased costs on to customers, adding that years of elevated inflation have made it easier for firms to justify raising prices. He said the surge in AI investment has put pressure on supply chains, adding to inflationary pressures, and argued that this is driving demand-side inflation, which the Fed can lean against. On the economy, Barkin said the resilience of consumer spending has been surprising given relatively flat incomes, while business owners report that demand remains solid, with weakness limited to non-profits and the housing sector. Musalem (2028 voter): Said moving sooner with rate hikes lessens the risk of a hit to the broader economy, adding that inflation is still too high and unlikely to ease without Fed action, and that the best thing the Fed can do now is restore price stability. He said the Fed will need to raise interest rates again “soon”, though incremental changes in rates are better than abrupt ones. Musalem noted that monetary policy is accommodative right now and that overall financial conditions remain accommodative; they have tightened, but not by much. He attributed higher long-term bond yields to expectations of higher policy rates, described the broader economy and job market as strong, and said risks remain skewed towards higher inflation. He outlined two scenarios for inflation: the more likely one, in which inflation stays too high unless the Fed raises rates further, and a less likely but plausible one, in which no more hikes are needed. He added that he is focused on preventing second-round inflation effects, such as in the services sector. FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 14+ TICKS HIGHER AT 106-20+ Yield curve steepens amid FTQ bid as equities slump following weak tech earnings. At settlement, 2-year -2.7bps at 4.575%, 3-year -2.8bps at 4.649%, 5-year -2.7bps at 4.714%, 7-year -1.5bps at 4.811%, 10-year -1.2bps at 4.925%, 20-year +0.4bps at 5.334%, 30-year +1.2bps at 5.309%. THE DAY: The yield curve saw further steepening on Friday as front-end yields declined while the long-end yields rose. The decline in front-end yields came despite rising oil prices, with the main market driver being a slew of weak tech earnings weighing on sentiment. Intel tumbled following weak results, disappointing next-quarter guidance and cautious commentary on the PC market, weighing on broader PC names. Meanwhile, SanDisk's earnings pressured the memory sector, while Amazon shares initially slumped following a weak quarter and disappointing FCF, although they managed to claw back much of the losses. AI concerns also mounted after Blackstone reportedly told Anthropic that it may not receive an investment-grade credit rating, according to the FT. These developments helped fuel an FTQ bid in Treasuries, with the Nasdaq briefly entering correction territory. US data saw the Q3 Employment Cost Index rise 0.8%, in line with forecasts and slightly below the prior 0.9%. Benefits eased to 0.9% from 1.0%, while wages slowed to 0.7% from 0.9%. Little reaction was seen to the report. Meanwhile, Chicago PMI missed expectations, falling to 55.3 from 58.8, below the 56.1 forecast. Fed speak saw Logan (2026 voter) reiterate that the Fed still needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes, although she acknowledged that adjusting policy gradually can reduce the risk of sharp economic deterioration and that a pause does not change the policy destination. Musalem (2028 voter) said moving sooner reduces the risk of a hit to the broader economy, noting that the Fed will need to raise rates soon but that incremental changes are preferable to abrupt adjustments. Barkin (2027 voter) said the direction of travel for policy is straightforward, but the question is the pace. Daly (2027 voter) said AI matters significantly for how policymakers think about policy in the near and medium term, including the Fed's price stability and employment mandates. Attention next week turns to the US midterm elections, with betting markets pricing a Democratic sweep at around 70%. The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement is also due, with particular focus on any guidance updates or adjustments to its buyback programme, before attention shifts to the October NFP report, where expectations currently look for 55k jobs added. Supply US to sell USD 95bln of 13-week bills and USD 82bln of 26-week bills on November 2nd, and USD 100bln of 6-week bills on November 3rd; all to settle on November 5th. STIRS / OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 17.6bps (prev. 19.9bps), Mar 37.1bps (prev. 43.8bps) EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 117bln (prev. USD 116bln) on October 29th SOFR at 3.94% (prev. 3.94%), volumes at USD 3.145tln (prev. USD 3.074tln) on October 29th NY Fed RRP op demand at 4.38bln (prev. 0.35bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 4) on October 30th CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 2.12 HIGHER AT 104.12/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 2.63 HIGHER AT 113.43/BBL The crude complex saw gains to end the week as focus remains on the potential resumption of US strikes on Iran following the midterms. On Friday, benchmarks saw some downside pressure amid reports surrounding a US-Iran deal; Qatari mediators were reportedly returning to Tehran today as part of efforts to reach a deal, with mediation talks coordinated with the US, and CBS later reported there were indications of progress being made. Despite that, crude benchmarks still lifted to settle firmly in the green as participants await the conclusion of the midterms to see whether or not US President Trump decides to attack Iran - reports have suggested a limited strike on Iranian infrastructure. Elsewhere, IRIB reported that a supertanker exploded after hitting a naval mine on an unauthorised route through the Strait of Hormuz. On strikes, post-settlement on Thursday the Houthi military stated it carried out six operations against Saudi Arabia, which included targeting the Ras Tanura refinery, Aramco's Abqaiq facility and the Rabigh refinery with ballistic missiles. Further on geopolitics, but away from the Middle East, Russia's Defence Ministry said it struck military and energy facilities in Ukraine's Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as port facilities and cargo vessels in Odesa. On supply, Libya's NOC said an armed group shut down a valve on the Hamada-Zawiya crude oil pipeline, forcing a halt to pumping operations and threatening the loss of around 15k BPD in crude supplies to the Zawiya refinery. For the record, in the weekly Baker Hughes rig count, oil rigs rose by 2 to 462, natgas rigs fell by 2 to 130, leaving the total unchanged at 603. On Friday, WTI traded between USD 102.43-104.99/bbl, while Brent traded between USD 111.03-114.29/bbl. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX -1.83% at 7,579, NDX -3.46% at 28,385, DJI -1.09% at 51,771, RUT -1.75% at 2,809 SECTORS: Technology -4.24%, Industrials -1.57%, Communication services -1.11%, Consumer discretionary -0.86%, Financials -0.74%, Materials flat, Real estate +0.15%, Health +0.43%, Utilities +0.64%, Consumer staples +1.38%, Energy +1.91%. EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -1.23% at 6,131, Dax 40 -0.85% at 25,819, FTSE 100 +0.07% at 10,730, CAC 40 -0.01% at 7,969, FTSE MIB -1.00% at 49,501, IBEX 35 -1.09% at 18,653, PSI -0.47% at 9,276, SMI +0.43% at 14,820, AEX -0.68% at 1,134 STOCK SPECIFICS Intel (INTC): Rev. & FCF light w/ dismal next Q view, driven by prolonged PC market weakness & memory shortages. Sandisk (SNDK): Weaker-than-exp. op. cash flow & investor concerns over the sustainability of AI spending outweighed solid earnings, guidance & stock split. Amazon (AMZN): Top & bottom line missed as did net income w/ higher-than-exp. AI infra spending & deteriorating FCF. DXC Technology (DXC): Weak outlook & mgmt. warned of a prolonged recovery in its core business. Roblox (RBLX): Rev. short, light Q4 bookings view & declining user engagement following stricter child-safety measures. Pinterest (PINS): EPS & rev. short as was Q4 outlook. Reddit (RDDT): Q4 outlook short. Mondelez International (MDLZ): EPS beat. General Dynamics (GD): Top & bottom line surpassed Wall St. exp. Stryker (SYK): EPS & rev. missed w/ weak FY profit outlook. CD&R is going after a buyout of Global Payments (GPN), valued at USD 40bln, FT reports. Blackstone (BX) said Anthropic may not obtain an IG rating after its IPO, FT reports. FX USD was mixed against major peers on Friday as AI growth concerns accelerated to end the week, with markets once again underwhelmed by the latest round of tech earnings (INTC, AMZN, SNDK). Additionally, the FT reported that Blackstone said Anthropic is expected to get a high junk rating after its IPO, having previously signalled an expectation for Anthropic to get an investment-grade rating by year-end. The report sparked an extension of the rally at the short end of the curve, weighing on USD performance, although the long end was sold. There were multiple Fed speakers on Friday, with remarks from dissenters Cook and Hammack still awaited. Fed's Logan argued that higher market rates are a message that investors believe monetary policy has work to do, adding that "Long-term rates have risen, but do not represent as much of a drag on the economy as might be expected." US data showed employment costs eased slightly in Q3, as expected, as did wages and benefits. DXY is set to finish the week slightly firmer at 101.89, though off the 102.49 WTD highs. CAD, JPY, GBP and CHF were all firmer,AUD and NZD were little changed, and the EUR was marginally weaker. Overnight, the BoJ held rates at 1.25% as expected, in an 8-1 vote, with Takata opting for a hike. In the press conference, Ueda noted that it is too early to declare the inflation target achieved, as inflation must remain stable and sustainably around 2%, and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain far from being firmly anchored at 2%. USD/JPY hit lows of 156.96 before paring losses to trade around 157.46. For the Euro, German CPI cooled more than expected to 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.0%), while Italian HICP ran hot at 5.6% (exp. 4.6%) and French HICP topped forecasts at 3.8% (exp. 3.6%). EZ Q3 GDP beat at 0.4% Q/Q (exp. 0.2%). On the ECB front, Makhlouf said he seriously considered a hike this week, Kocher said the Bank must hike if conditions don't improve soon, and Panetta said more hikes may be needed.