Newsquawk欧州市場総括 - 2026年11月10日

European bourses traded higher; IFX GY +2.2% after upbeat 2027 outlook amidst AI demand. Hawkish reaction seen (DXY & US yields gain, Spot gold falls) after a hawkish US CPI report. Fed's Waller, before the CPI report, mentioned that further policy tightening will be needed and signalled openness to a larger 50bps move. EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) traded firmer throughout the session, with major indices gaining between 0.3% and 1.5%; the IBEX 35 outperformed. Sectors held a strong positive bias. Banks led, joined closely by Travel & Leisure, which benefited from falling oil prices; a factor which sent the Energy sector to the bottom of the sectoral list. As for key movers this morning: Infineon (+2.5%) gained following decent headline metrics, and FY27 outlook impressed, amidst growing AI demand. Sticking with earnings, Vodafone (+0.3%) was choppy after lifting outlook, but adj. earnings fell. Elsewhere, BT (-0.6%) opted to pause its tie-up with SpaceX’s Starlink, amidst the recent Ukraine controversy. Finally, Ferrexpo (-2.9%) shares tumbled after temporarily halting production in Ukraine. US indices started the session on a weaker footing, with the complex coming under modest pressure following a hawkish US CPI report. In brief, headline M/M topped expectations at 0.4% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.6%), with the closely watched core figure also above expectations. In terms of key movers: Nvidia (-1%, CEO’s affair with an alleged Chinese spy facilitated the sale of at least USD 7.5bln in chips to China), Take Two (+4%, Narrower than exp. Q loss & unprecedented pre-orders for GTA VI). Elsewhere, Anthropic targets a modest USD 1tln market value in its IPO vs early indications of USD 1.4tln. FX Snapshot: USD topped the G10 pile, to the detriment of peers. EUR fared a bit better vs peers, whilst the Aussie underperformed. USD benefited from a hotter-than-expected CPI report, which saw both the headline and core metrics top expectations. Interestingly, the core figure printed at 0.3%; earlier, the Fed’s Waller mentioned that a half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher. Following the report, money markets now assign a 10% chance of a larger 50bps move in December, whilst fully pricing in a quarter-point move. In terms of the Fed’s preferred PCE, Pantheon Macroeconomics sees Core PCE deflator within 0.35-0.4%, resulting in a rise in the core PCE rate to 3.3% (prev. 3.1% in Sept). A report which spurred pressure across all G10 peers. EUR fared a bit better vs peers, perhaps given money markets widely expect a December move at the ECB. On the other hand, the Aussie was sent to the bottom of the G10 pile as the risk tone soured, and as markets digested mixed Chinese trade data. Back to the USD, attention now shifts to the geopolitical situation, which has been bearish-USD for the past few days. There appears to be growing optimism on both the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine fronts, with trilateral talks occurring earlier today; Secretary of State Rubio touted that talks were productive, but more needs to be done. Elsewhere, the US-Iran situation remains subject to mixed reporting on potential concessions from either side, but mediation efforts are ongoing. FIXED USTs under modest pressure early doors, in slight contrast to EGBs which were firmer by a handful of ticks. Thereafter, a bout of pressure of just under 10 ticks was seen on Fed voter Waller, who opened the door to a 50bps move in December depending on October CPI. A series that printed at 0.3% Core M/M, of note after Waller said a 50bps move could be warranted in December on a core figure around or higher than 0.3%. As such, further pressure was seen in USTs to a 106-08 low, down by 26 ticks at most. Additionally, yields bid across the curve with the short-end unsurprisingly leading as CME FedWatch now has a c. 15% chance of a 50bps move, vs no probability pre-Waller, in December. Amidst this, pressure was seen across EGBs and Gilts, enough to take them into the red on the day, despite the downside of over USD 2/bbl seen in WTI and Brent. Bunds saw modest pressure relative to peers in the morning (pre-Waller), as the day’s regional weather forecasts turned colder and kept Dutch TTF firmer, despite the crude moves. Bunds set to end the European day at a 122.87 base, lower by a handful of ticks, and well off the 123.27 high on the initial crude move, before Dutch TTF picked up on the aforementioned forecasts and changed the narrative somewhat. Gilts began on the front foot, bid by 40 ticks at best. But, have since faded alongside peers following the US data. Further, commentary from the BoE has thus far been on the hawkish side of things, with December clearly a live meeting. As it stands, set to end the day at an 86.52 base, lower by over 30 ticks. UK sold GBP 1bln 5.375% 2056 Gilt: avg. yield 5.54% (prev. 5.517%), b/c 3.75x (prev. 3.84x), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.3bps). COMMODITIES WTI and Brent off by over USD 2/bbl, Brent lost the USD 90/bbl handle early on and has been fading since. Focus, of course, on the geopolitical front, amid continued optimism for a US-Iran breakthrough, though Iranian commentary this morning has at points been punchy once again. Away from Iran, the Abu Dhabi talks regarding Ukraine concluded for today, but are set to resume in Wednesday’s session. Most recently, further pressure was seen in the crude space after US’ Rubio said the economic campaign against Iran is working so well that there is no need for major combat operations. While just before, a marked move occurred on Al Hadath reporting (similar to Monday) that Iran had agreed to cut highly enriched uranium levels. As mentioned, Dutch TTF was unable to benefit from this across the morning, potentially amid the lack of significant progress at the Ukraine-related talks, but also as the region’s weather update turned colder this morning. Points that have TTF above EUR 82.50/MWh, and marginally firmer on the session. XAU was initially hit by the constructive risk tone, with initial relative US yield upside meaning there was limited yield-channel support despite the energy moves. However, this has all been superseded by Fed’s Waller and US CPI, together sending the yellow metal down to a USD 4039/oz base. Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries since late October have reduced Russia’s oil processing capacity by about 30%, according to industry sources. UAE's ADNOC set December Murban Crude OSP at USD +4/bbl vs Dubai quotes, reports suggest. UAE is reportedly selling 1.7mln barrels of Arab light from a salvaged tanker, loading between November 10th and 20th. German Chancellor Merz is in favour of maintaining the EU's approach to emissions trading, Handelsblatt reported; the Chancellor is against weakening the regulation any further. EUROPEAN DATA Swedish Construction Output (Sep YY) 3.1% (Prev. 3.9%). Swedish Industrial Production (Sep YY) -3.7% (Prev. 5.8%). Swedish Industrial Production (Sep MM) -3.2% (Prev. 5.4%). Swedish New Orders (Sep YY) 8.4% (Prev. 3.8%). French Unemployment Rate (Q3) 8.2% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.3%). Norwegian Core CPI (Oct MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%). Norwegian Core CPI (Oct YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.0%). Norwegian CPI (Oct MM) 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%). Norwegian CPI (Oct YY) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.4%). NOTABLE HEADLINES China's foreign minister hopes that the EU will work with China to build balanced and stable ties between the countries, reported Xinhua. CENTRAL BANKS WSJ's Timiraos writes "October’s firm inflation reading raises the question of whether Federal Reserve officials will accelerate increases at their December meeting or beyond.". "A big question—beyond the heavy focus on December (could AI tightening prompt another skip? does 0.4% on core PCE put a 50 in play?)—has been whether the Fed is making a modest adjustment of two or three increases or is instead at the start of a longer tightening campaign. A milder reading might have opened a path for December’s increase to be the Fed’s last. At a minimum, today’s report is likely to lead officials to conclude that they will need to do more next year, not less.". Fed's Waller (voter) said at a minimum they need to take back the three insurance cuts. But, he is not "super hawkish", does not want to "slam" the US economy. Not looking to tighten by 150bps or 200bps. The balance sheet is not a tool that will be used for tightening. Does not think his peers on the Fed believe rates are in the correct place. Recent pullback in market pricing for the Fed has moved it to be more in-line with the Fed's view. Fed's Waller (Voter) said he expects further tightening "sooner rather than later" to return inflation towards 2% over the medium term. A 0.3% MM rise in US October CPI would indicate inflation is moving away from target and would require more aggressive policy action. Does not think we will see broad-based productivity gains from AI for a while. In the context of recent equity moves, said that is generally not too important for his monetary assessment. Revised up his neutral view, and in that context, policy is not as tight as he thought it might be some 18 months ago. Fed's Waller (Voter) said that further policy tightening will be needed; Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATES. Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Waller would support quarter-point rate hike in December even if October CPI improves. Waller said further policy tightening will be needed. FORWARD GUIDANCE. Waller said what matters is that promised hikes are delivered within a reasonable period of time. Waller said he was willing to wait on policy tightening in October. INFLATION. Waller said US inflation is too high. Waller said September's inflation data were bad. Waller said he is particularly concerned about the breadth of price increases. Waller said Fed staff analyses suggest more producer price increases ahead. Waller said Fed staff analyses point to potential for energy price shock to be more persistent. LABOUR MARKET. Waller said labour market is solid, with supply and demand roughly in balance. Waller said employment is close to the Fed's goal. Waller said it is unclear whether labour market is as healthy as the unemployment rate suggests. Waller said questions over labour market dynamism and productivity growth need more research. GDP GROWTH. Waller suspects GDP growth is backing off in current quarter. Waller expects output to continue growing at a solid pace. ECB's Kazaks said they may need to tighten in December. ECB's Lane said it would be prudent to hike rates in December if incoming data do not materially change the outlook, speaking to Bloomberg. ECB's Moulin expects policy continuity if either Knot or de Cos takes over as ECB President. BoE's Lombardelli said she thinks there could be less slack in the UK economy vs the BoE's central view, at 0-1% vs 1%. Hard to determine if the UK economy is more resilient to price shocks, or if the absorption limit is being approached. Policy has been less restrictive than thought, due to economic resilience. BoE's Lombardelli said the labour market is stuck in low gear, UK has a low-hire, low-fire labour market that creates its own problems; might be necessary to raise rates further in the near term. Balance of inflation risks to the upside. Greater prospect of second-round effects. Energy shock has become more persistent. The longer energy costs stay high, the greater the pressure there will be on businesses to restore margins. Argues that the conditions for persistent inflationary dynamics over the mid-term are crystallizing. In setting monetary policy, will continue to look beyond the headline numbers: at whether hiring is recovering, whether people can move towards the jobs available, and whether labour market weakness is genuinely easing wage and inflation pressures. That evidence will shape judgement of how much further monetary policy needs to go to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target. BoE's Breeden said firms are now very good at adapting to cost shocks. BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said a further 25bps rate hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but a decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict, the Guardian reported. SNB's Martin said swiss inflation and the SNB policy rate remain low despite higher rates and inflationary pressure abroad. High energy and input prices are weighing on global economic activity and driving up inflation. Widening interest rate differentials relative to the major currency areas have led to a depreciation of the Swiss franc. CNB said underlying inflation trend has changed little in recent months and October core inflation 3.1% vs. 3.2% expected in bank's outlook. Core inflation should remain stable over the few months ahead. Underlying inflation trend has changed little in recent months. Riksbank Minutes: overall, members are skewed towards further tightening, but the exact timing is less clear. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE US Secretary of State Rubio, on Russia-Ukraine, said there is still much work to be done, talks in Abu Dhabi were productive; goal is to expand trilateral Ukraine talks, to include the Europeans. Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks finished for today, and talks to continue on Wednesday, according to reported. Trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US are to continue into Wednesday, reported Interfax. Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries since late October have reduced Russia’s oil processing capacity by about 30%, according to industry sources. US would like to restore dialogue between Russia and NATO, TASS reported citing a source. EU continues to wait for permission from the US to supply Ukraine with PAC-3 missiles via PURL, RFERL's Raufoglu reported citing sources. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said they will not accept European demands for an immediate ceasefire within Ukraine. Russian, US and Ukrainian talks in Abu Dhabi have restarted after the earlier break, Tass reported citing a source. A Russian delegation has departed for Abu Dhabi for talks with the US and Ukraine, TASS reported citing a source. MIDDLE EAST Houthi spokesperson said the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out four qualitative military operations using a number of ballistic missiles and drones, including on the East-West pipeline; will continue their operations deep inside Saudi territory. The first operation targeted King Khalid International Airport and several pumping stations on the East-West pipeline in the Saudi enemy capital, Riyadh. The strikes were direct, causing fires and damage at the targeted sites. The second operation targeted Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and, by God's grace, successfully achieved its objectives. The third operation targeted Saudi enemy troop concentrations overseen by the Saudi officer Badr al-Harbi in the al-Mudharabah and Ras al-Arah districts, resulting in a large number of dead and wounded. The fourth operation targeted the financial center in the Saudi enemy capital, Riyadh. Denies claim that it attacked the East-West pipeline in Medina. Houthi spokesperson to give an important statement on military operations in Saudi at 17:10 local / 14:10 GMT. US Secretary of State Rubio, on Iran, said that the economic campaign is working so well that there is no need for major combat operations. Economic pressure on Iran will intensify further. Iran wants an agreement, but is not ready for it. Iran's compensation demand will not be met. Iran Deputy Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission tells Mehr News that giving concessions to America is a miscalculation; let's not play on the enemy's turf. Iran agreed to US demands to cut highly enriched uranium levels, Al Hadath reported citing sources. Iran Major General Abdullahi said Surprises will unfold one after another in the coming war and Iran will definitely destroy Israel, reported Tasnim. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said there are no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei and US Vice President Vance, Al Mayadeen reported. Solution to the conflict is in diplomacy and the implementation of the conditions Iran has outlined. Controlled explosions of unexploded ordnance are scheduled in northern and southern Isfahan, Iran, between 10:00 and 13:30 local time, including Abrisham, Soffeh and Baharestan, SNN reported. Israel conducts an airstrike on Al-Qantara in southern Lebanon, according to Mehr News. NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS US NEC Director Hassett said the US October CPI report was disappointing. Energy price trickle down is showing within the data. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US Core Goods & Services CPI (Oct M/M): Core Goods CPI M/M: 0.16% (prev. 0.25%), Core Services CPI M/M: 0.34% (prev. 0.37%), Supercore CPI M/M: 0.40% (prev. 0.42%). US CPI (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.6%); 3dp 0.350% (prev. 0.649%). US Core CPI (Oct MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%); 3dp 0.296% (prev. 0.335%). Pantheon Macroeconomics, following US October CPI: "... look consistent with an increase in the core PCE deflator within a 0.35-to-0.40% range and a rise in the core PCE inflation rate to 3.3%, from 3.1% in September.". US ADP Employment Change Weekly 19.75K (Prev. 16.75K).