【プレビュー】2026年11月4日のリクスバンク政策決定

Riksbank is expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.00%, supported by upside risks to inflation. As this is an MPU meeting, there will be no update to the rate path, with analysts expecting the existing path to be reaffirmed. Further out, markets expect one more hike in early 2027, bringing the policy rate to a terminal level of 2.25%. OVERVIEW: Riksbank is widely expected to hike rates by 25bps to 2.00%, supported by upside risks to inflation amid higher energy prices, the ECB's hawkish action in September and indications that the Riksbank board favours tightening before year-end. Since the last meeting, Governor Thedeen has said there are strong reasons to raise the policy rate in the near term, Bunge said a hike is probably justified by end-2026, while Deputy Governor Jansson flagged an increasing risk of higher energy prices feeding into broader inflation. SEB describes a November hike as "close to a done deal". Note: Governor Thedeen will attend the post-policy press conference at 10:00 GMT. DATA: On the data front, September's CPIF rose to 1.5% Y/Y (prev. 0.7%), in line with expectations, although CPIF ex-energy was softer at 0.5% (exp. 0.7%). Despite the recent cooling in core inflation, upside risks remain, including SEK depreciation, rising energy prices and the unwinding of some tax cuts. On the growth front, activity has been firmer, with Q3 flash GDP at 0.4% Q/Q (exp. 0.3%), potentially giving policymakers scope to tighten further. On the labour market front, employment metrics appear to have rebounded in Q3, in line with the Bank's forecasts, although unemployment remains above the Bank's projections. BANK COMMENTARY: Nordea expects the Riksbank to raise rates by 25bps, citing a stabilising SEK following recent pressure and upside risks to inflation. Further out, analysts expect the Bank to pause in December before delivering a final hike in February. Elsewhere, SEB also sees a November rate hike and expects the accompanying press release to reaffirm the rate path outlined in September, which indicates some chance of another hike in Q1 2027. SEB believes a hike early next year is the most likely outcome. LAST MEETING: At its last meeting in September, the Bank kept rates unchanged, as expected. The commentary, particularly the forecasts, pointed to a hawkish bias, with the Bank stating that "it is expected that the increases to the policy rate will begin this year". The forecasts implied a hike around end-2026, followed by another in early 2027, with some scope for a further increase by Q3 2028. Overall, the outlook was slightly dovish in the near term but more hawkish further out.