【分析】米中間選挙：上院、知事、公益事業委員会の結果判明の目安時間

US Senate Senate control Market Democrats Republicans Senate control – Kalshi 74% 26% Senate control – Polymarket 76% 24% Balance of power (Polymarket) Odds Democratic sweep (Senate + House) 76% R Senate / D House 18% Republican sweep 6% D Senate / R House 1% Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats (to 51). Since 29 Oct, Democrats' Senate odds are up from 68% to 76% on Polymarket. Senate control – sector read Outcome (Polymarket odds) Positive Negative Democratic sweep (76%) Managed care & hospitals (UNH, ELV, CNC, MOH, HCA); staples & discount retail (WMT, DG, DLTR, KR); renewables (FSLR, NEE) AI/data centres (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, DLR, EQIX); financials (JPM, BAC, GS, MS); defence (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX); crypto (COIN, HOOD, MSTR); USD and yields lower R Senate / D House (18%) Tech/AI (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO); data-centre REITs (DLR, EQIX); USD Crypto (COIN, HOOD, MSTR); shutdown and debt-ceiling risk Republican sweep (6%) Defence (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, PLTR); oil & gas (XOM, CVX, COP, OXY); financials (JPM, BAC, GS, MS); crypto; AI/data centres (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, DLR, EQIX); nuclear & gas power (CEG, VST, GEV) Hospitals & Medicaid plans (HCA, UHS, CNC, MOH); renewables (FSLR, NEE); long-end Treasuries Exit polls & first calls GMT EST What happens 22:00 Tue 17:00 Embargo lifts on the first national voter intention polls 22:45 Tue 17:45 ABC expected to post its first Voter Poll data 23:00 Tue 18:00 First polls close (Kentucky, Indiana) 00:00 19:00 GA, SC, VT, VA close; some early calls possible at this stage 01:00 20:00 National Voter Poll results released Reminder, it can take several days for overall control to be called. State by state Polls close GMT Polls close EST State Odds now, % (Kalshi / Polymarket) 2024 pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) 2024 pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) What to watch Sector / equity read-across 23:00 Tue / 00:00 18:00 / 19:00 Kentucky Barr (R) 97 / 97 · Booker (D) 3 / 3 23:05 Tue / 01:15 / 02:30 18:05 / 20:15 / 21:30 Very fast. Automatic recount if margin ≤0.5%. – 00:00 19:00 Georgia Ossoff (D) 97 / 97 · Collins (R) 3 / 3 00:04 / – / 03:21 (99% 08:15) 19:04 / – / 22:21 (99% 03:15 Wed) Secretary of State expects results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST. Dec 1 runoff if no one tops 50%. D hold priced. GA data-centre risk sits with the governor/PSC, not this seat. 00:00 19:00 South Carolina Graham (R) 68 / 70 · Andrews (D) 32 / 32 00:19 / 01:50 / 04:14 19:19 / 20:50 / 23:14 Automatic recount if margin ≤1%. D upset: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: priced. 00:00 19:00 Virginia Warner (D) 99 / 99 · Mizusawa (R) 1 / 1 00:10 / – / >99% 06:52 (2025 race) 19:10 / – / >99% 01:52 Wed Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted until noon Fri 6 Nov. – 00:00 / 01:00 19:00 / 20:00 Florida (special) Moody (R) 84 / 86 · Nixon (D) 16 / 15 00:00 / 00:16 / 99% 03:51 19:00 / 19:16 / 99% 22:51 Fastest count in the country. Machine recount at 0.5%, hand recount at 0.25%. D upset: Medicare-for-All signal → −managed care (UNH, ELV, HUM, CNC, MOH). 00:00 – 01:00 19:00 – 20:00 New Hampshire Pappas (D) 93 / 94 · Sununu (R) 7 / 6 – / 03:12 / 06:42 – / 22:12 / 01:42 Wed Towns close at 19:00, 19:30 or 20:00 EST. AP won't call before 01:00 GMT / 20:00 EST (its 2022 practice). D hold priced. R upset: +tech, +USD. 00:30 19:30 North Carolina Cooper (D) 97 / 98 · Whatley (R) 3 / 2 00:35 / 02:17 / 04:36 19:35 / 21:17 / 23:36 Most mail votes in first update. No grace period for late mail. D flip priced. R upset: R Senate more likely → +tech, +USD. 00:30 19:30 Ohio (special) Brown (D) 72 / 72 · Husted (R) 29 / 29 00:36 / 02:01 / 04:03 19:36 / 21:01 / 23:03 Mail ballots must arrive by poll close (new law). Automatic recount at ≤0.25%. D win: D Senate more likely → −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto; −OH data-centre names (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA). R hold: +tech, +USD. 00:30 19:30 West Virginia Capito (R) 99 / 99 · Fetty Anderson (D) 1 / 1 00:41 / 01:53 / 04:00 19:41 / 20:53 / 23:00 Fast. – 01:00 20:00 Alabama Moore (R) 98 / 98 · Wess (D) 2 / 2 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 Automatic recount if margin ≤0.5%. – 01:00 20:00 Delaware Coons (D) 99 / 99 · Katz (R) 1 / 1 01:29 / 01:59 / 02:57 20:29 / 20:59 / 21:57 Fast. – 01:00 20:00 Illinois Stratton (D) 99 / 99 · Tracy (R) 1 / 1 01:14 / 02:30 / 05:45 20:14 / 21:30 / 00:45 Wed Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted until 19 Nov. Big D margin: Medicare-for-All momentum → −managed care (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). 01:00 20:00 Maine Jackson (D) 72 / 74 · Collins (R) 28 / 26 01:44 / 05:54 / 20:13 20:44 / 00:54 Wed / 15:13 Wed Slow. Ranked-choice counting likely (write-in candidates are on the ballot): if no one tops 50%, the final result is likely next week. D win: −managed care/PBMs (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). R hold: +defence funding (GD). 01:00 20:00 Massachusetts Markey (D) 99 / 99 · Deaton (R) 1 / 1 01:15 / 04:06 / 08:56 20:15 / 23:06 / 03:56 Wed Mail ballots accepted until Fri 6 Nov. – 01:00 20:00 Mississippi Hyde-Smith (R) 86 / 86 · Colom (D) 15 / 14 01:19 / 03:06 / not until 8 Nov 20:19 / 22:06 / not until 8 Nov Mail ballots accepted up to 5 business days after Election Day. – 01:00 20:00 New Jersey Booker (D) 98 / 99 · Murphy (R) 2 / 1 01:01 / 02:06 / 04:54 20:01 / 21:06 / 23:54 Mail ballots accepted until 9 Nov. – 01:00 20:00 Oklahoma Hern (R) 98 / 99 · Thomas (D) 2 / 1 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 Fast. – 01:00 20:00 Rhode Island Reed (D) – / 99 · McKay (R) – / 1 01:09 / 01:34 / 05:03 20:09 / 20:34 / 00:03 Wed Mail votes come later in the night. – 01:00 20:00 Tennessee Hagerty (R) 98 / 98 · Bradshaw (D) 2 / 2 01:02 / 01:58 / 03:14 20:02 / 20:58 / 22:14 Fast. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Kansas Hamilton (D) 64 / 62 · Marshall (R) 37 / 36 01:10 / 02:48 / 97% 08:45 20:10 / 21:48 / 97% 03:45 Wed 3-day mail grace period applies (a court blocked the law ending it). D win: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: neutral. 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Michigan El-Sayed (D) 80 / 80 · Rogers (R) 20 / 20 01:06 / 05:12 / 99% 09:40 20:06 / 00:12 Wed / 99% 04:40 Wed AP won't call before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Detroit and the other big counties report little early; Detroit aims to finish by about 09:00 GMT / 04:00 EST. D hold: single-payer signal → −managed care (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). R flip: R Senate more likely → +tech, +USD. 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 South Dakota Rounds (R) 94 / 95 · Bengs (I) 6 / 6 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed State law bars any results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Slow. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Texas Talarico (D) 74 / 74 · Paxton (R) 26 / 26 01:00 / 01:29 / 05:17 20:00 / 20:29 / 00:17 Wed About two-thirds of the vote (early and absentee) lands in the first update. Bexar County holds its early votes until lines clear. Mail ballots accepted until 17:00 local, Wed 4 Nov. D win: −AI/data centres (GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, DLR, EQIX), −TX power (VST, NRG, CNP). R hold: +AI/data centres. 01:30 20:30 Arkansas Cotton (R) 98 / 98 · Shoffner (D) 2 / 2 01:35 / 02:42 / 04:39 20:35 / 21:42 / 23:39 Fast. – 02:00 21:00 Colorado Hickenlooper (D) 99 / 99 · Baisley (R) 1 / 1 02:05 / 02:43 / not until 7 Nov 21:05 / 21:43 / not until 7 Nov All-mail state, so a long tail. Recount at ≤0.5%. – 02:00 21:00 Iowa Turek (D) 52 / 52 · Hinson (R) 48 / 46 02:01 / 03:33 / 99% 08:20 21:01 / 22:33 / 99% 03:20 Wed Absentee votes in first update at most counties. D win: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: neutral. 02:00 21:00 Louisiana Letlow (R) 88 / 88 · Davis (D) 13 / 12 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 Fast. Little read-across; the Meta/Entergy decision (vote due Nov or Dec) sits with the PSC. 02:00 21:00 Minnesota Flanagan (D) 91 / 92 · Tafoya (R) 9 / 8 02:08 / 04:40 / >99% 10:19 21:08 / 23:40 / >99% 05:19 Wed All vote types released together. D hold: Medicare-for-All signal → −managed care (UNH). 02:00 21:00 Nebraska Ricketts (R) 66 / 68 · Osborn (I) 32 / 32 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed Early votes first; Omaha and Lincoln release few Election Day votes early. Automatic recount if margin ≤1%. Osborn says he won't caucus with either party. I win: Senate control could hinge on Osborn's caucus choice. 02:00 21:00 New Mexico Luján (D) 98 / 99 · Marker (R) 2 / 1 02:00 / 03:33 / 05:48 21:00 / 22:33 / 00:48 Wed Automatic recount if margin <0.25%. – 02:00 21:00 Wyoming Hageman (R) 99 / 99 · Byrd (D) 1 / 1 02:43 / 04:57 / 06:30 21:43 / 23:57 / 01:30 Wed Automatic recount if margin <1%. – 03:00 22:00 Montana Alme (R) 90 / 90 · Bodnar (I) 11 / 9 · Bankhead (D) 1 / 0 03:00 / 08:43 / 16:16 22:00 / 03:43 Wed / 11:16 Wed Counties may hold first results until lines clear. Four-way race. I win: caucus question for Bodnar. 03:00 / 04:00 22:00 / 23:00 Idaho Risch (R) 96 / 97 · Achilles (I) 4 / 3 04:13 / 05:45 / 10:28 23:13 / 00:45 Wed / 05:28 Wed – – 03:00 / 04:00 22:00 / 23:00 Oregon Merkley (D) 99 / 99 · Smith (R) 1 / 1 03:00 / 04:10 / not until 8 Nov 22:00 / 23:10 / not until 8 Nov All-mail; ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted for 7 days. – 05:00 / 06:00 00:00 / 01:00 Wed Alaska Peltola (D) 70 / 72 · Sullivan (R) 30 / 29 06:07 / ~07:07 / only ~75% by 12:15 01:07 Wed / ~02:07 Wed / ~75% by 07:15 Wed Most mail votes come in later days. Ranked-choice count on 18 Nov, certification target 25 Nov. A Justice Department suit seeks to block certification if Peltola wins. D win: D Senate more likely → −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. Slow count delays clarity. US Governor & Utility Commission races Governors Polls close GMT Polls close EST State Odds now, % (Kalshi / Polymarket) 2024 pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) 2024 pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) What to watch Sector / equity read-across 00:00 19:00 Georgia Bottoms (D) 72 / 72 · Jackson (R) 29 / 28 00:04 / – / 03:21 (99% 08:15) 19:04 / – / 22:21 (99% 03:15 Wed) Open seat; markets have swung to Bottoms. Dec 1 runoff if no one tops 50%. Secretary of State expects results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST. D win: statewide data-centre freeze → −DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL; −SO. R win: local consent only, neutral. 00:00 19:00 South Carolina Wilson (R) 95 / 95 · Johnson (D) 6 / 5 00:19 / 01:50 / 04:14 19:19 / 20:50 / 23:14 Safe R. – 00:00 19:00 Vermont Scott (R) 66 / 68 · Janoo (D) 32 / 31 00:12 / 01:48 / 03:44 19:12 / 20:48 / 22:44 Rated likely R, but markets price Janoo at about 1 in 3, tighter than the ratings. – 00:00 / 01:00 19:00 / 20:00 Florida Donalds (R) 64 / 64 · Jolly (D) 36 / 36 00:00 / 00:16 / 99% 03:51 19:00 / 19:16 / 99% 22:51 Open seat, lean R. Fastest count in the country. – 00:00 – 01:00 19:00 – 20:00 New Hampshire Ayotte (R) 86 / 85 · Warmington (D) 15 / 14 – / 03:12 / 06:42 – / 22:12 / 01:42 Wed Likely R. AP won't call before 01:00 GMT / 20:00 EST. – 00:30 19:30 Ohio Acton (D) 82 / 84 · Ramaswamy (R) 18 / 18 00:36 / 02:01 / 04:03 19:36 / 21:01 / 23:03 Open seat, toss-up in ratings but markets favour Acton. Fast count; mail ballots must arrive by poll close. Negative either way for data centres (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA). D win: data centres pay full utility costs. R win: day-one halt on approvals until projects give nearby homes free power and pay full property taxes → slower OH builds; GEV (on-site power) indicative only. 01:00 20:00 Alabama Tuberville (R) 93 / 93 · Jones (D) 8 / 7 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 Open seat, safe R. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. – 01:00 20:00 Connecticut Lamont (D) 98 / 98 · Fazio (R) 2 / 2 01:12 / 05:25 / 19:06 (date not stated) 20:12 / 00:25 Wed / 14:06 (date not stated) Safe D. Automatic recount if margin <0.5% and ≤2,000 votes. – 01:00 20:00 Illinois Pritzker (D) 98 / 99 · Bailey (R) 2 / 1 01:14 / 02:30 / 05:45 20:14 / 21:30 / 00:45 Wed Safe D. Late-arriving postmarked mail counted to 19 Nov. – 01:00 20:00 Maine Pingree (D) 97 / 97 · Charles (R) 3 / 3 01:44 / 05:54 / 20:13 20:44 / 00:54 Wed / 15:13 Wed Open seat, safe D. Slow count. – 01:00 20:00 Maryland Moore (D) 99 / 99 01:22 / 02:24 / not until 11 Nov (82% by 07:00) 20:22 / 21:24 / not until 11 Nov (82% by 02:00 Wed) Safe D. Long mail tail. Also on ballot: Question 3 on mid-decade congressional redistricting. – 01:00 20:00 Massachusetts Healey (D) 98 / 98 · Minogue (R) 2 / 2 01:15 / 04:06 / 08:56 20:15 / 23:06 / 03:56 Wed Safe D. – 01:00 20:00 Oklahoma Mazzei (R) 90 / 89 · Munson (D) 11 / 10 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 Open seat, likely R. – 01:00 20:00 Pennsylvania Shapiro (D) 99 / 99 01:00 / 03:12 / 05:48 20:00 / 22:12 / 00:48 Wed Safe D, but a key data-centre state. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. D hold: data centres proceed under voluntary cost agreements, neutral. R upset: data-centre pause → −AMZN, −CEG, PPL, EXC, EQT. 01:00 20:00 Rhode Island Foulkes (D) 98 / 98 · Block (I) 2 / – 01:09 / 01:34 / 05:03 20:09 / 20:34 / 00:03 Wed Open seat, safe D; independent Ken Block on ballot. – 01:00 20:00 Tennessee Blackburn (R) 94 / 94 · Green (D) 6 / 5 01:02 / 01:58 / 03:14 20:02 / 20:58 / 22:14 Open seat, safe R. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Kansas Masterson (R) 66 / 66 · Holscher (D) 36 / 36 01:10 / 02:48 / 97% 08:45 20:10 / 21:48 / 97% 03:45 Wed D-held open seat; markets favour Masterson (R pickup). 3-day mail grace period applies. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Michigan Benson (D) 95 / 95 · James (R) 6 / 5 01:06 / 05:12 / 99% 09:40 20:06 / 00:12 Wed / 99% 04:40 Wed Open seat, lean D. AP won't call before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Big counties report late. D win: data-centre moratorium → −ORCL; −CMS, DTE growth. R upset: James also backs a pause → little difference. 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 South Dakota Rhoden (R) 98 / 98 · Ahlers (D) 2 / 2 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed Safe R. No results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Texas Abbott (R) 60 / 62 · Hinojosa (D) 40 / 38 01:00 / 01:29 / 05:17 20:00 / 20:29 / 00:17 Wed Lean R; the closest it has been in years. About two-thirds of the vote lands in the first update. D win: permit moratorium until lawmakers set rules → −GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, ORCL, DLR, EQIX; −VST, NRG, CNP. R win: grid-approval freeze (pending audit) stays, mildly negative. 01:30 20:30 Arkansas Sanders (R) 98 / 98 · Love (D) 3 / 2 01:35 / 02:42 / 04:39 20:35 / 21:42 / 23:39 Safe R. – 02:00 21:00 Arizona Hobbs (D) 92 / 94 · Biggs (R) 8 / 6 03:00 / 03:12 / only ~66% by 11:30 22:00 / 22:12 / ~66% by 06:30 Wed Lean D. No results before 03:00 GMT / 22:00 EST. Slow; the 2022 race took AP 6 days to call. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. Little direct; the data-centre lever is the Corporation Commission (PNW). 02:00 21:00 Colorado Weiser (D) 98 / 98 · Marx (R) 2 / 3 02:05 / 02:43 / not until 7 Nov 21:05 / 21:43 / not until 7 Nov Open seat, safe D. All-mail, long tail. – 02:00 21:00 Iowa Sand (D) 88 / 88 · Lahn (R) 12 / 12 02:01 / 03:33 / 99% 08:20 21:01 / 22:33 / 99% 03:20 Wed R-held open seat; markets strongly favour Sand (D pickup). Little direct; hosts MSFT, META, GOOGL data centres. 02:00 21:00 Minnesota Klobuchar (D) 97 / 97 · Demuth (R) 3 / 3 02:08 / 04:40 / >99% 10:19 21:08 / 23:40 / >99% 05:19 Wed Open seat, safe D. – 02:00 21:00 Nebraska Pillen (R) 90 / 90 · Walz (D) 11 / 11 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed Likely R. – 02:00 21:00 New Mexico Haaland (D) 95 / 95 · Hull (R) 5 / 5 02:00 / 03:33 / 05:48 21:00 / 22:33 / 00:48 Wed Open seat; solid D in ratings but flagged as one to watch. Automatic recount <0.25%. Oil & gas: state-land drilling policy (OXY, EOG, DVN). 02:00 21:00 New York Hochul (D) 96 / 96 · Blakeman (R) 4 / 4 02:01 / 02:55 / 04:46 21:01 / 21:55 / 23:46 Safe D. – 02:00 21:00 Wisconsin Crowley (D) 86 / 86 · Tiffany (R) 15 / 12 02:11 / 03:31 / 07:22 21:11 / 22:31 / 02:22 Wed Open seat; toss-up in ratings, markets favour Crowley. Milwaukee counts late. Recount on request if margin <1 point. D win: data centres must bring clean power → −MSFT, META, ORCL; +FSLR, NEE. R win: data-centre tax breaks repealed, coal kept. 02:00 21:00 Wyoming Barlow (R) 99 / 99 02:43 / 04:57 / 06:30 21:43 / 23:57 / 01:30 Wed Open seat, safe R. – 03:00 22:00 Nevada Ford (D) 74 / 76 · Lombardo (R) 24 / 24 05:54 / 06:02 / 01:26 Thu 00:54 Wed / 01:02 Wed / 20:26 Wed R-held; markets favour Ford. Slow: first results about 3 hours after close in 2024. Postmarked mail accepted for 4 days, with 6 days to fix signatures, so possibly next week. D win: tax-break pause, cooling-water ban → −GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT builds. R win: supportive, though he has already trimmed tax breaks. 03:00 / 04:00 22:00 / 23:00 Idaho Little (R) 98 / 99 · Pickens (D) 2 / 1 04:13 / 05:45 / 10:28 23:13 / 00:45 Wed / 05:28 Wed Safe R. – 03:00 / 04:00 22:00 / 23:00 Oregon Kotek (D) 84 / 84 · Drazan (R) 16 / 16 03:00 / 04:10 / not until 8 Nov 22:00 / 23:10 / not until 8 Nov Lean D. All-mail; postmarked ballots accepted for 7 days. – 04:00 23:00 California Becerra (D) 97 / 98 · Hilton (R) 3 / 2 04:12 / 05:56 / only ~62% by 09:24 23:12 / 00:56 Wed / ~62% by 04:24 Wed Safe D (top-two). Counting takes weeks. Billionaire wealth-tax measure also on the ballot. Wealth-tax ballot measure is a 2028 tax signal; no single-stock read. 05:00 00:00 Wed Hawaii Green (D) 98 / 99 · Cordery (R) 3 / 1 10:07 / 10:08 / 16:11 05:07 Wed / 05:08 Wed / 11:11 Wed Safe D. First results about 5 hours after close. – 05:00 / 06:00 00:00 / 01:00 Wed Alaska Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 88 / 89 · Wilson (R) 12 / 11 06:07 / ~07:07 / only ~75% by 12:15 01:07 Wed / ~02:07 Wed / ~75% by 07:15 Wed R-held open seat; markets strongly favour Kreiss-Tomkins. Ranked-choice with three Republicans; ranked-choice count 18 Nov. – Utility commissions (PUC) Polls close GMT Polls close EST Commission & seat 2024 state pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) 2024 state pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) What to watch tonight Sector / equity read-across 00:00 19:00 Georgia PSC, District 3: Hubbard (D, inc.) v Fitz Johnson (R) 00:04 / – / 03:21 19:04 / – / 22:21 Control at stake (3 R – 2 D now). Democrats win both seats = 3–2 D flip. Elected statewide; Dec 1 runoff if under 50%. Rematch of 2025, when Hubbard won about 63%. D sweep of both seats: D control → −SO capex, −GA data centres (DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL). R: status quo. 00:00 19:00 Georgia PSC, District 5 (open): Tolbert (R) v Edwards (D) v Blooming (L) 00:04 / – / 03:21 19:04 / – / 22:21 Control decided together with District 3. The Libertarian makes a Dec 1 runoff more likely. D: data centres pay "fair share", plus a pause. R: pro-data-centre, wary of overbuilding. 01:00 20:00 Oklahoma Corporation Commission (open): Boles (R) v Eastman (D) 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 No control change possible (3–0 R). R: continuity (AEP, DVN). 01:00 20:00 Alabama PSC, Places 1 & 2 (both open): Gentry (R) v Gordon (D); Zeigler (R) v McNeil (D) 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 No control change possible. Both Republican nominees beat incumbents by attacking Alabama Power rates. Tougher on rates either way → −SO. 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 North Dakota PSC, 2 of 3 seats: Haugen-Hoffart (R, inc.) v Pederson (D); Kringstad (R, inc.) v Kelsh (D) 01:25 / 03:35 / 05:00 20:25 / 22:35 / 00:00 Wed Democratic control is a long shot in a deeply Republican state. Note: AP gives poll closes of 20:00 / 21:00 EST, earlier than the tracker's 22:00 / 23:00. Sentiment gauge on power prices (XEL). 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 South Dakota PUC (open): Haggar (R) v Kloucek (D) 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed No control change possible. No results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. – 02:00 21:00 Louisiana PSC, District 1 (open): Hilferty (R) v Norris (D) v Justin (no party) 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 Control at stake (3 R – 2 D now). A Norris win plus a Democratic hold in District 5 = 3–2 D flip. D win (+ D hold in D5): D control → risk to the Entergy gas build for Meta: −ETR, META timing. 02:00 21:00 Louisiana PSC, District 5 (open): Green (D) v Atkins (R) 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 A Republican pickup = 4–1 R. This north Louisiana seat is the heart of the Meta/Entergy build. R pickup: smooth path for the Entergy/Meta build → +ETR. 02:00 21:00 Nebraska PSC, District 2 (open): McCann (R) v DeBoer (D) 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed No control change possible. – 02:00 21:00 Arizona Corporation Commission, 2 seats (top two win): Thompson (R, inc.), Heap (R) v Hill (D), Pratte (D) 03:00 / 03:12 / ~66% by 11:30 22:00 / 22:12 / ~66% by 06:30 Wed No control change possible (5–0 R); best Democratic case is 3–2 R. No Arizona results before 03:00 GMT / 22:00 EST. D wins: more data-centre cost/timing risk; the rate case drives PNW. 03:00 22:00 Montana PSC, Districts 1 (open) & 5: Pattison (R) v Cheek (D); Bukacek (R, inc.) v Hamm (D) 03:00 / 08:43 / 16:16 22:00 / 03:43 Wed / 11:16 Wed No control change possible (5–0 R). –