Newsquawk デイリー・アジア太平洋オープニングニュース－2026年11月10日

US stocks closed firmly in the green on Monday as the post-midterm rout continued to unwind. Gains were broad-based, with all major US indices and S&P 500 sectors closing higher, particularly Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Communication Services. The rally came despite a 5% decline in Nvidia (NVDA) shares amid an investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang following reports of his admitted affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Nonetheless, risk sentiment was also supported by further optimism surrounding the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a major military campaign against Iran, while reports via Al Arabiya on Monday suggested the two sides were moving closer to an agreement and noted that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal had revived the prospect of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. USD saw notable losses on Monday, weighed on by the more constructive geopolitical backdrop and cooling energy prices amid increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. The latest report, which sparked a significant risk-on reaction, came from Al Arabiya, which, citing sources, said a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path to serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The report added that arrangements are underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, and that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%, which Tehran has agreed to. Away from geopolitics, there was no tier-1 data on Monday, with US CPI due on Tuesday, while the NY Fed SCE showed inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons: 1yr at 3.9%, 3yr at 3.3% and 5yr at 3.0%. Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & NAB Business Confidence, Japanese Household Spending, Current Account, Chinese Trade Data, BoJ Summary of Opinions from the October 29th-30th Meeting, Supply from Japan, Holiday Closure in India. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 +2.4% Nasdaq Comp. +2.7% DJIA +2.3% Russell 2000 +3.2% ES Dec'26 +2.4% RTY Dec'26 +3.1% NQ Dec'26 +3.7% YM Dec'26 +2.2% FX DXY -0.6% (101.70) EUR/USD +0.7% USD/JPY -0.3% GBP/USD +0.7% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -5.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -2 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.89% German 10yr Yield 3.27% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -4.9% Brent Jan'27 -6.3% Spot Gold +1.8% LME Copper +0.9% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.2% Ethereum +0.1% As of 21:50GMT/16:50EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & NAB Business Confidence, Japanese Household Spending, Current Account, Chinese Trade Data, BoJ Summary of Opinions from the October 29th-30th Meeting, Supply from Japan, Holiday Closure in India. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump held a meeting with Qatar's PM Al Thani, which lasted around 45 minutes and focused on the negotiations with Iran, according to Axios citing sources. US President Trump said after talks with the Qatari PM that Qatar would rather see a peaceful solution with Iran, but the US is ready for strikes if necessary, while he added that Saudi Arabia would also prefer a peaceful solution to the Iran conflict. Furthermore, Trump defended Hegseth and said that he won two wars. Meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were positive, and they discussed ways to progress talks with Iran, according to Axios citing a diplomat briefed on the meetings. US Secretary of State Rubio said they are dealing with an out-of-control group in Iran. US War Secretary Hegseth said “Iran is in the weakest position it's been in a very, very long time. The president has the upper hand on any path that he chooses to take". Hegseth earlier commented that previous presidents had failed to deal with Iran and that someone had to confront the Iranian regime, while he also stated he was not worried that enough Republicans would vote against him to secure a conviction in an impeachment battle. Furthermore, it was separately reported that impeachment articles against War Secretary Hegseth have been introduced in the House of Representatives. Iraqi PM presented proposals to end the Iran war during a phone conversation with US President Trump, which Trump is said to have approved and asked the Iraqi PM to convey them to Tehran, as well as requested that Qatar's PM play a mediating role with Iran. Iraq's PM recently met Iranian President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf in Tehran. Tasnim sources suggested the visit had produced no outcome that would satisfy the Americans. Fars separately reported that the Iraqi PM met with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf on Friday, with discussions focused on Baghdad's efforts to end the war between Iran and the US and unrelated to other issues. A Qatari-Pakistani proposal revives the path of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with arrangements underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, without specifying the scope of their mission, according to Arabiya citing sources. Furthermore, it was reported that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at a level of 3.67%, and Tehran has agreed, while discussions are underway regarding the involvement of a third country to facilitate the reduction of highly enriched uranium levels in Iran, and preliminary agreement on reducing Iranian uranium enrichment is likely. Iran has reportedly dropped its demand to control the Strait of Hormuz and collect transit fees, according to Hayom, citing officials, although Tehran remains unwilling to discuss nuclear issues or signal any willingness to enter negotiations. Under the reported agreement, USD 8bln in frozen Iranian funds held in Qatar would be released, while the US would lift its naval and economic blockade of Iran in exchange for Tehran halting attacks on vessels belonging to Gulf states. However, a Qatari official said reports detailing the US-Iran proposal were false and that talks remained ongoing. Preparations are underway in Doha to potentially host a new round of US-Iran talks in the coming week, as mediators from Pakistan and Qatar work to bridge outstanding differences, according to journalist Anas Mallick. Qatar will reportedly host US Vice President Vance and Iran's General Rezaei next week, according to Mehr News, citing Ankara. The head of Turkey's intelligence agency reportedly described the meeting as an important opportunity to open negotiations. However, Tasnim subsequently reported that plans for Rezaei to meet Vance in Doha had been denied, with a security official saying there would be no negotiations with the US, while the official added that Iran's policy on negotiations had not changed and that no talks would take place until Washington took practical action within the framework of Tehran's seven conditions. Iranian security source said there were currently no plans to hold a meeting with a representative from Washington in Turkey, according to Al Araby TV. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran's two-day proposal was the most reasonable proposal on the table, adding that Tehran would not compromise on its national interests. Baghaei also stated that the US must end its naval blockade and the war before diplomacy could proceed, while describing the Iron Gate task force as a deflection from the US midterm results. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the withdrawal of enriched materials from Iran was not an option under any circumstances, according to Mehr News. Baghaei also described the reduction of the deadline for implementing Iran's proposed plan from seven days to two days as a sign of the Islamic Republic's seriousness and goodwill in pursuing diplomacy. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Israelis were working overtime to drag the US into an endless war with Iran, warning that it would become a quagmire from which no president, whether Republican or Democrat, could escape. Ghalibaf added that unless Washington abandoned its "Israel First" mindset, America and its allies were heading towards a dark age. IRGC spokesperson said no mines had been cleared in the Strait of Hormuz and that the waterway remained completely closed, while he added that recent incidents involving numerous oil tankers there contradicted US President Trump's claims. French Foreign Minister Barrot said the IRGC was behind the cyberattack on the fridges, adding that the EU would impose sanctions against Iran. Russian military transport aircraft carrying a senior delegation led by the head of Russia's military intelligence agency landed at Ben Gurion Airport on Saturday evening in an unusual visit to Israel, according to Jerusalem Post citing sources. The purpose of the visit and the subjects discussed during the delegation's meetings in Israel remain unclear, but the unusual landing of a Russian military aircraft in Israel comes amid heightened regional tensions and ongoing uncertainty over the possibility of renewed military confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran. Plumes of smoke rose from oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, according to Sabereen. Saudi Ministry of Energy source said the East-West pipeline in Medina had been targeted, according to Al Ekhbariya. Operations were not affected by the incident. US TRADE US stocks closed firmly in the green on Monday as the post-midterm rout continued to unwind. Gains were broad-based, with all major US indices and S&P 500 sectors closing higher, particularly Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Communication Services. The rally came despite a 5% decline in Nvidia (NVDA) shares amid an investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang following reports of his admitted affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Nonetheless, risk sentiment was also supported by further optimism surrounding the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a major military campaign against Iran, while reports via Al Arabiya on Monday suggested the two sides were moving closer to an agreement and noted that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal had revived the prospect of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. SPX +2.35% at 7,550, NDX +3.40% at 27,908, DJI +2.15% at 52,390, RUT +3.16% at 2,841. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE USTR announced a determination to further extend all 178 existing exclusions related to China's technology transfer, intellectual property and innovation. USTR suspended any action related to China's shipbuilding and maritime sector until January 10th 2027, to allow for further discussions. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said the main risk lay on the inflation side of the Fed's mandate, adding that the direction of monetary policy was straightforward but that policymakers should proceed with care. Barkin said he was hearing reports of broad-based cost pressures, while describing the US economy as remarkably stable. Resilient demand alongside widespread cost increases was putting upward pressure on prices, with businesses indicating they would try to pass on higher costs. Barkin also said there is no base case for the December meeting, the current policy rate is likely around or slightly below neutral, and the last jobs report was "healthy", though he still sees firms in a low-hire, low-fire environment. Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) reiterated that services inflation had accelerated over the past few months, complicating the argument that elevated inflation was solely tariff-driven. Goolsbee said further rate cuts might need to wait, adding that the main problems had been on the inflation side while employment and growth remained relatively stable. Consumer spending had been the primary driver of growth, while data centre activity appeared similar to traditional economic overheating. US Secretary of State Rubio said they need to speak more about disruption from AI on the economy. DATA RECAP NY FED SCE (October): 1yr inflation expectations 3.9% (prev. 3.9%); 3yr 3.3% (prev. 3.3%); 5yr 3.0% (prev. 3.0%) US Wholesale Inventories (Sep MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%) FX USD saw notable losses on Monday, weighed on by the more constructive geopolitical backdrop and cooling energy prices amid increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. The latest report, which sparked a significant risk-on reaction, came from Al Arabiya, which, citing sources, said a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path to serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The report added that arrangements are underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, and that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%, which Tehran has agreed to. Away from geopolitics, there was no tier-1 data on Monday, with US CPI due on Tuesday, while the NY Fed SCE showed inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons: 1yr at 3.9%, 3yr at 3.3% and 5yr at 3.0%. EUR gradually advanced throughout the day and climbed back above the 1.1200 level amid the softer buck and with very few fresh drivers for the single currency. GBP benefitted from the dollar's demise, while comments from BoE Governor Bailey provided very little incrementally, in which he stated that there were growing signs of the beginnings of a positive supply shock from AI and the investment required to support it. JPY was firmer albeit with gains capped alongside higher US yields, while participants look ahead to incoming data from Japan and the BoJ Summary of Opinions from the October meeting. Banxico Governor said the central bank had been considering rate cuts since September, according to El Financiero. FIXED INCOME T-notes settled marginally lower and the curve flattened, with yields gaining alongside the continued equity market rebound. COMMODITIES Oil prices were lower as the mood between the US and Iran turned more constructive, with a peace proposal appearing closer than before, while meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were ‘positive’ and they discussed ways to progress talks with Iran. US SPR crude stocks fell to 279.5mln bbls last week. GEOPOLITICAL MIDDLE EAST US President Trump's inner circle is reportedly urging Israel's Gadi Eisenkot to form a government swiftly, according to Al Monitor's Karam, with the White House already looking beyond Netanyahu less than two weeks after the election. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump said Abu Dhabi talks this week on Ukraine present the chance of a possible breakthrough. US Envoy Kushner said President Trump was determined to bring an end to the "horrible war" in Ukraine, adding that Washington was working hard to find a negotiated solution that could deliver lasting peace and create the conditions for a sovereign, secure and prosperous Ukraine within a more stable European security environment. US official said conversations with Ukrainian and Russian officials were taking place daily and that European partners would join the Abu Dhabi talks on Ukraine, adding that Washington would seek to persuade Russia to accept a multilateral format. The official said Europe needed to be at the negotiating table and that NATO would remain central to European collective defence. Both sides had shown some flexibility privately on territorial concessions, while the proposal was to bring Europeans into discussions following the trilateral meeting. The official added that territorial issues could not be resolved until the post-war security architecture was established, expressed confidence that both parties were approaching talks with good intentions and said Russia was showing positive signs towards reaching an end to the conflict. US officials said there was a 'real shot' at making 'serious progress' towards ending the Ukraine-Russia war in talks scheduled for tomorrow in Abu Dhabi, according to an RFE/RL reporter. Russia remained bitter towards European countries, whom Moscow blamed for derailing a previous agreement in Istanbul, while Washington was working to reassure Moscow of its alignment with Europe and NATO. EU Foreign Representative Kallas said Russia had been pretending to negotiate and that she had seen no goodwill from Moscow, adding that some European nations were expected to provide details on the hoax bomb threats in the coming days. Kallas separately said she did not have high expectations ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks. OTHER US is pushing back against China's demand for a tightly scripted format at a potential trilateral summit between US, Chinese and Russian leaders on the sidelines of the APEC summit next Wednesday and Thursday, according to WSJ citing sources. US Senator Bennet is circulating a letter urging senators to cut off war funding in the next spending bill, according to Semafor's Everett. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES Japan and Vietnam will accelerate cooperation on critical minerals, according to Kyodo, while the report suggested leaders also discussed the early realisation of an LNG project. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES BoE Governor Bailey said there were growing signs of the beginnings of a positive supply shock from AI and the investment required to support it. Bailey added that UK economic activity was proving more resilient than expected, partly due to AI investment and particularly in the business services sector. EU is pushing for electricity concessions for the UK, according to The Telegraph. French Labour Minister said the minimum wage would be increased by 1.6%, effective Dec. 1st.