Newsquawk 米国市場寄り付き前デイリーニュース－2026年11月3日

The US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, with an official describing it as small-scale and defensive. Journalist Mallick reported that an agreement for Iran and the US to return to negotiations is reportedly in the works, although a deal is not as close as some suggest. Multiple reports and Iranian commentary continue to suggest that Iran and the US are reviewing a mediator proposal. US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming despite pre-market losses in Apple and Palantir. DXY is modestly softer; CHF pares back gains following a hot CPI report, AUD lags as the RBA fails to provide guidance. Fixed income benchmarks lower amid higher energy benchmarks (Brent +1.1%). Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS (Sep), US midterm elections. Speakers include BoC's Macklem & Rogers. Earnings from Pfizer, AMD & Super Micro. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5% DAX40 -0.6% Stoxx 600 -0.3% FTSE 100 -0.5% ES Dec'26 -0.1% RTY Dec'26 U/C NQ Dec'26 +0.3% YM Dec'26 -0.6% FX DXY U/C (101.82) EUR/USD U/C (1.1183) USD/JPY +0.2% (158.19) GBP/USD U/C (1.3411) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -5 ticks Bund Dec'26 -25 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.917% German 10yr Yield 3.322% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +1.4% Brent Jan'27 +1.1% Spot Gold -1.1% LME Copper -2.6% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.3% Ethereum +0.7% As of 11:00GMT / 06:00EST EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (Stoxx 600 -0.3%) begin Tuesday’s trade on the back foot, reversing the broad gains seen on Monday. Crude benchmarks have pared some of Monday’s c. 8% losses, after reports that the US hit Qeshm Island and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that a deal is still out of reach. To add to the downbeat tone were disappointing earnings from Apple and Palantir. Sectors have a negative bias. Defensive sectors lead, with Health Care topping the sector pile. The sector laggard is Basic Resources, with Tech and Media following closely behind. Key movers include: Bayer, Q3 metrics beat and raised its FY adj. EBITDA guidance; Lufthansa, trimmed its FY adj. EBIT guidance while lifting its fuel cost forecast; Philips, sales matched expectations while reiterating its FY outlook and announcing a settlement with the US DoJ regarding faulty sleep apnoea devices. US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ despite downside in Apple and Palantir pre-market. Starting with Apple, it gave a mixed report, with tightening Q1 gross margin guidance (45-46%, exp. 47%) overshadowing an upbeat sales forecast (7-10%, exp. 6.1%). As a result, shares are lower pre-market by 3.7%. For Palantir (-7.9% pre-market), its outlook also disappointed, as it expects Q4 sales that point to a slower rate of growth. Click for the session's European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX G10s are mixed against the USD. The CAD, GBP and CHF are flat, with the latter scaling back some of its earlier outperformance following a hotter-than-expected CPI report. The AUD lags following the RBA’s decision to hike rates by 25bps (as expected), though the Bank did not signal further action. DXY is essentially flat and trades within a thin 101.62 to 101.87 range. Action which comes as Americans head to polling stations for the midterms, where a Democratic sweep is likely, according to major prediction market odds. Kalshi assigns a 76% chance of a Dem Senate, and a 94% chance of a Dem House. This outcome would undoubtedly be USD-negative in the short term given the implications for passing policy, slower growth and the increased chance of a government shutdown. Perhaps a more favourable outcome for the USD would be a Dem House and a GOP Senate. CHF was initially the outperformer this morning before paring back, following a hotter-than-expected CPI report. Headline Y/Y printed at 1.5% (vs exp. 1.3%), and pertinently above the Bank’s Q4 average forecast of 1.2%; importantly the Core Y/Y metric remains unchanged at 0.5%, evidence that second round effects are yet to enter the Swiss economy. A report which keeps the headline within the SNB's 0-2% target range, but if the upturn in inflation continues, money markets will likely bring forward rate hike bets towards mid-2027. The Aussie is the clear underperformer this morning, in the aftermath of the RBA policy announcement, alongside losses in copper and gold. The Bank hiked its Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected. There were a few hawkish elements from within the release, namely the RBA sees materially higher inflation (as per its latest forecasts), and noted that risks to inflation are to the upside. On the dovish side (and driving the AUD downside), the decision was subject to dissent from three members, who opted to pause rates. Moreover, the Bank refrained from any hawkish guidance; Governor Bullock stated that she will not be offering guidance, adding that it is “probably good to wait now and see incoming data”. Overall, the RBA sounded a bit more cautious than in previous meetings, which has led AUD/USD to trade with losses of c. 0.3%, within a 0.6962 to 0.7003 range. FIXED INCOME A modestly bearish session for the space. USTs are lower by a handful of ticks in 106-21 to 106-27 parameters. In short, we await the start of the US midterms (Newsquawk preview and dashboard available), while on the lookout for any further geopolitical updates after Monday’s limited kinetic action and the commentary from Iran. To recap, the US targeted Qeshm Island in a limited strike, aimed at preventing Iran from aggression within the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, sources report that while Qatari mediators were involved in recent days, the Iranian assessment is that a return to war is the most likely scenario; though political figures within Iran are reportedly pushing for a de-escalation. Amidst this, EGBs react to the energy upside, posting pressure of about 20 ticks. Pressure that is seemingly a function of the moves seen in global energy benchmarks, and specifically Dutch TTF, which is bid by c. EUR 2/MWh. No reaction to the morning’s ECB speak, which has stuck to the script. Gilts, as is often the case, underperform amidst this energy move. Lower by 35 ticks at the time of writing, but some 15 clear of the 85.85 base and holding around the 86.00 handle. UK specifics focused on the government's EU relationship, ahead of the EU-UK summit, with reports suggesting some progress has been made on various points; however, PM Burnham has clarified that he is not proposing the return of freedom of movement. A point the EU is particularly attached to. Germany sells EUR 3.839bln vs. exp. 5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.4x (prev. 1.1x), average yield 3.14% (prev. 3.2%), retention 23.22% (prev. 33%). UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.38x (prev. 3.31x), average yield 5.268% (prev. 4.934%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps). COMMODITIES WTI Dec and Brent Jan futures are attempting to trim some of yesterday’s losses, following the 8% slump on Monday, which saw WTI relinquish the USD 100/bbl level. Losses yesterday came amid hopes of diplomacy, although the partial rebound overnight was facilitated by reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran's Qeshm Island. Choppiness was seen this morning amid mixed geopolitical headlines (more below), with WTI now towards the middle of a USD 96.12-98.69/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.15-102.75/bbl range) and Brent in a USD 104.27-107.24/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s USD 103.28-112.41/bbl range), but closer to the upper end. Dutch TTF has rebounded to around EUR 97.50/MWh from lows of around EUR 94/MWh this morning. In terms of geopolitics, there were overnight reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran's Qeshm Island, while the attack was described as small-scale, defensive and aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, the geopolitical flurry continued with early-door source reports suggesting that Iran and the US are far from reaching a deal to end the war, while the US' excessive demands will not be accepted by Iran. Further, Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iran, which some reports suggested were positive and that Iran and the US were reviewing the latest suggestions from mediators. It was then reported that Qatari mediators went to Tehran only to receive Iran's response, not for further discussions, and sources said political figures inside Iran were pushing for de-escalation. Pakistani journalist Mallick mentioned that to his understanding, an agreement to return to the negotiation table between US-Iran is in the works, but not as close as some had suggested. Precious metals are weaker as crude rebounds, with spot gold almost wiping out all of yesterday’s gains, while spot silver is now below Monday’s low, all despite a relatively flat USD ahead of the US midterms. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,895-3,964/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 3,874-3,970/oz range). Spot silver underperforms after dipping under yesterday’s USD 49.33/oz low. Analysts at ING “expect gold to regain some ground following its recent correction. But the near-term outlook remains challenging amid expectations for higher rates and a stronger dollar, limiting the scope for a more sustained recovery.” 3M LME copper is also on the back foot and under the 14k mark in a current USD 13,896.05-14,286.35/t range at the time of writing. Saudi Aramco CEO expects global liquid fuel demand to rise by c. 2.4mln bpd by 2027 and warned energy markets will face pressure this winter. Said the East-West pipeline expansion is underway, China is increasing crude purchases and Aramco remains ready to rapidly increase production if needed. Added that exports resumed within days following attacks on the East-West pipeline. ADNOC Gas CEO said gas demand will continue growing in the long term and emphasised the need for more energy and diversified supply. Goldman Sachs raised 2027 TTF Average Price Projection to EUR 51/MWh from EUR 44/MWh to reflect a 45% chance of a low-winter-Mideast LNG supply scenario. TRADE/TARIFFS China's MOFCOM said Vice Minister Li met with a US agricultural trade delegation, with both sides exchanging views on China-US economic and trade relations and agricultural trade cooperation. UK and EU agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES German Chancellor Merz said they need to ensure that the electricity tax is reduced in the 2027 budget, and has some ideas on how to do this while calling for further reductions in air traffic tax. Germany's HDE Lobby Group sees 2026 German Retail Sales +2% in nominal terms, +1% in real terms. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP Swiss CPI (Oct YY) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%); Core (Oct YY) 0.5% vs Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%). Swiss CPI (Oct MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%). CENTRAL BANKS RBA raised its Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote, with three members favouring a hold at 4.60%. RBA noted that inflation remains elevated, with risks still skewed to the upside, and revised its inflation outlook materially higher in its updated staff forecasts, while it stated that inflation is now expected to remain elevated through much of 2027, with the top of the 2-3% target range not reached until late 2027. The Board reiterated its commitment to returning inflation sustainably to target and said monetary policy remains well positioned to respond to developments, while it remains focused on price stability and full employment. It also noted that rate hikes since the start of the year have tightened financial conditions and that output growth is expected to slow further over the coming year, easing capacity pressures and helping inflation return to the target. RBA Governor Bullock said the rate hike was needed to bring inflation down and address domestic capacity pressures, with growth needing to remain subdued and unemployment expected to rise further. Inflation is largely baked in for the next year, while the RBA is not forecasting a recession. Additionally, she said it is probably appropriate to wait for incoming data, does not know how high rates will need to go or what the next move will be, and is not providing forward guidance. ECB's Radev said the economic environment is getting more challenging and that the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over. Said core inflation is stable, and the energy shock has not passed on to wages. ECB's Moulin said the ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond energy. SNB's Schlegel said inflationary pressure in September was slightly higher than in June. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and that could happen, while he added that Iran said even recently that they won't have a nuclear weapon. CIA Director Ratcliffe was reportedly advising US President Trump to maintain the 'no war, no deal' status quo and allow the economic pressure campaign to continue, while he said the prolonged economic pain will induce Iran to make more concessions or create enough instability in Iran that citizens revolt, according to sources cited by Axios's Ravid. US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against Iran in recent weeks as President Trump touts the possibility of a diplomatic deal, while the attacks were described as small-scale and defensive, aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by WSJ. US source told the Jerusalem Post that the US was behind the attack on Qeshm Island and stated it was a small incident intended for self-defence, while a US official cited by Axios's Ravid stated that the IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm Island at a US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night and a US fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self-defence, with the attack also described as a small incident. An agreement for Iran and the US to return to negotiations is reportedly in the works, although a deal is not as close as some suggest, according to journalist Mallick. A senior Iranian official said Iran and the US remain far from reaching a deal to end the war despite intensified mediation efforts, Reuters reported. Tehran insisted its conditions must be met before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, with nuclear talks only possible afterwards, and rejected Washington's "excessive demands". Iran and the US are reportedly reviewing the latest mediator proposals aimed at bridging differences and averting another war, Bloomberg reported. Qatari mediators held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, which were described as positive. Qatari mediators reportedly travelled to Tehran solely to receive Iran's response rather than hold further talks, according to Al Arabiya sources. Iran's President, Parliament Speaker and Foreign Minister reportedly urged military authorities to respond positively to Qatar's proposal, although Iranian assessments suggest a return to war is now the most likely scenario. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran are ongoing, with both sides committed to the process. The Qatari delegation has returned to Doha following talks in Tehran, while Gulf countries remain united in seeking to avoid escalation. Said there is still hope for a deal that would pave the way for future negotiations. Iranian diplomat Gharibabadi said the exchange of messages through Qatari mediation continues and that a diplomatic agreement is possible if Tehran's demands are met. He later said that diplomatic talks and message exchanges continue through Qatari mediation, with Iran's 7-day plan as the basis and an agreement is possible if Tehran's demands are met, while warning that any official threat to use tactical nuclear weapons would undermine the NPT's legal framework. Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said they are at the highest level of defensive readiness. He added that the ball is in the US' court, after a strong and rational response was provided to the US. He went on to say that Iran's armed forces' response to any enemy miscalculation will be unpredictable and not bound by geographical limits. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has no hostility towards GCC member states and appreciates the positive role of Qatar and Oman. Will continue talks with Saudi Arabia and aims to establish new regional security arrangements led by regional countries without the presence of foreign militaries. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei rejected a Qatari proposal to establish direct communication between US diplomats and the Iranian delegation that visited Doha, according to Aram News citing sources. Iranian Foreign Ministry said that they are now in a state of war following the targeting of Qeshm. Iran is said to be ready with a more devastating response to US attacks and has preserved a significant portion of missile and drone capabilities and its weapons production capacity, and is more prepared than before, according to a report cited by IRIB. IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines in the early hours while travelling through unauthorised routes with navigation and identification systems switched off, IRIB reported. Saudi Defence Minister said he discussed de-escalation efforts in the region and the Houthis' continued attacks during a call with US Secretary of Defence Hegseth. Houthi spokesperson said the Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they did not carry out any operation today towards Saudi territory. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US envoy Witkoff said the US will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10th-11th and that trilateral talks will cover ending the war and post-war security agreements, as well as de-escalation and aid measures, while he also stated that US officials are to meet this week in Brussels with France, Germany, UK, EU and NATO representatives to discuss Ukraine. Russia's Kremlin later confirmed the trilateral Ukraine talks. US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery programme for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched a large-scale, coordinated overnight attack targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure, primarily energy generation facilities and substations. Russia said it carried out a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine's energy facilities, while it was also reported that an oil refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack. US, Chinese and Russian officials are reportedly in talks regarding a possible trilateral summit between the leaders later in November, according to the FT citing sources. The source added that it remains unclear whether the talks would happen trilaterally, or bilaterally between China-US and China-Russia, while suggesting that the US is pressuring China to agree to a meeting. CRYPTO Bitcoin briefly dipped below Monday's USD 76.55k low to a trough of USD 76.24k, before reversing to a high of USD 77.19k. APAC TRADE APAC stocks traded mixed following the continued tech rout stateside, where most major indices were negative, and the Nasdaq 100 dipped into a correction, although the majority of US sectors finished in the green and oil prices slumped 8% due to hopes for diplomacy, while demand was contained overnight amid the holiday closure in Japan and cautiousness heading into the US midterm elections. ASX 200 was indecisive heading into the RBA announcement, but finished in the green after the central bank hiked rates as expected, with the decision made by a 6-3 vote, while it remained hawkish but stopped short of signalling a December hike. KOSPI underperformed following the tech rout stateside and despite the softer-than-expected CPI data, which printed 2.8% vs exp. 2.9%, but remained above the central bank's medium-term target. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed despite authorities launching a renewed effort to stabilise the stock market, including measures to boost liquidity, cut rates for share buy-back loans and ease curbs on leveraged trading. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES PBoC announced it will raise the forex reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts from 4% to 6% effective November 15th, while the measure is aimed at improving the management of foreign currency liquidity in financial institutions. China's CSRC has reportedly instructed investment banks to pause IPOs and large share sales through informal guidance in an effort to support the country's struggling stock markets, according to the FT citing sources. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 YY) 5.2% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 4.3%). Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 QQ) 1.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -0.6%). South Korean CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%). South Korean CPI (Oct MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%).