Newsquawk 欧州デイリー・オープニング・ニュース - 2026年11月9日

US President Trump said it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran if negotiations progress, while Secretary of State Rubio said talks have been unproductive. APAC stocks were mostly higher, tracking Friday's tech rebound on Wall Street; NQ futures pared early losses after NVIDIA's Board launched a probe into reports CEO Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. DXY consolidated after Friday's jobs-driven upside; Antipodeans outperformed, with the NZD aided by the weekend's election result. Crude lacked direction amid mixed US rhetoric on Iran, while spot gold was firmer after the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 24 months. Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Sep), US NY Fed SCE (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4), Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Nov), BoJ SOO (Oct). Speakers include Fed's Goolsbee, Barkin and BoE Governor Bailey. Supply from the US. Earnings from Take-Two Interactive. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 +2.4% ASX 200 +0.1% Hang Seng +0.1% Shanghai Comp +0.4% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 -0.2% DAX Dec'26 -0.3% ES Dec'26 +0.3% NQ Dec'26 U/C FX DXY -0.2% (102.11) EUR/USD +0.2% (1.1160) USD/JPY -0.1% (158.26) GBP/USD +0.3% (1.3381) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -1.5 ticks Bund Dec'26 -6 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.87% German 10yr Yield 3.25% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -0.7% Brent Jan'27 -1.3% Spot Gold +1.2% LME Copper +1.0% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.4% Ethereum +0.2% As of 06:10GMT/01:10EST Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump told CNN that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He added that further military action would depend on whether Iran agrees to a sufficiently strong deal, while reiterating that the US remains prepared to strike if necessary. US President Trump said the US has won the wars in Iran and Venezuela and that the US did not strike Pickaxe Mountain in Iran because no activity was detected there. US President Trump posted that "Task Force Iron Gate is in full force and effect in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Coupled with history’s greatest Naval Blockade, very little gets into, or out of, Iran!" US President Trump said "Israel and, in fact, the entire Middle East, WOULD NOT EXIST TODAY if I did not stop Iran from having a Nuclear Weapon. Nobody wants to say that, but everybody knows it's true!" US President Trump said the US is talking to Iran and that it is doing well with Iran. US Secretary of State Rubio said talks with Iran have been unproductive as Tehran's demands are unacceptable, although the US will continue exploring diplomatic options where possible. He noted a diplomatic solution may not be achievable and warned the US will respond if its forces in the region are threatened. He reiterated that both US political parties agree Iran acquiring nuclear weapons would be unacceptable and pose a serious threat to US security. US President Trump is to meet with the Qatari PM on Monday at 12:00EST/17:00GMT, with talks focused on efforts to reach a new ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations with Iran, Axios reported. Axios added that US VP Vance is to meet with the Qatari PM separately before the meeting with US President Trump. Qatar's PM said mediation efforts between the US and Iran are continuing in an attempt to prevent a further escalation of regional tensions, according to Al Jazeera. US CENTCOM said its commander directed the establishment of a task force on November 7 to support US government efforts to prevent Iran from transporting advanced weapons and other materials via ground routes. Recent Russian contacts with Iran were reportedly initiated at Washington's request, with the US asking Moscow to mediate and persuade Tehran to engage in direct talks, according to Al Araby Al Jadeed. An Iraqi delegation reportedly visited Tehran and met Iranian officials to deliver a message from the US, according to Al Hadath citing sources. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said the outcome of the US elections requires time to assess before determining next steps, with intermediaries having had no contact in recent days due to the result. He added that conditions will need time to improve before mediation efforts resume, according to IRNA. In other comments, Araghchi said US voters have made their choice and that it is up to the White House to decide, while adding that Iran's "48-hour proposal" remains on the table. IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said the Strait of Hormuz is fully under Iranian Naval control and warned that non-compliant vessels risk hitting mines until Tehran's conditions are met, Press TV reported. An IRGC Navy official said no vessels transited through the unauthorised route due to the destruction of navigational aid systems in Southern Hormuz, IRIB reported. US CENTCOM said its forces disabled a St. Kitts-flagged commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman on November 7 after the civilian crew ignored repeated warnings and made multiple attempts to breach the US naval blockade against Iran. Initial reports indicated that two missiles struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, with no official information on potential damage, according to Tasnim News Agency. However, Iranian media suggested that the explosions were related to Iranian military activities, rather than US strikes. Separately, IRNA reported explosions in Iran's Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas, with some sources attributing the sounds to warning shots at violating ships in Hormuz. Furthermore, launches targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly heard from Sirik. A Hormozgan provincial official said US forces struck targets on Qeshm Island, although the attacks caused no damage to residential or commercial areas or vital infrastructure, according to IRNA. Iran's Navy said a tanker transiting a closed zone east of the Strait of Hormuz struck a mine and caught fire after switching off its navigation system, and added that the Strait will remain closed to non-compliant vessels until all threats are removed. Iraq's Foreign Minister Hussein said Iraq had reached an agreement with the US to allow Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz via a channel near Oman, adding that losses from the Iran conflict and export disruptions have reached USD 60bln, according to Al Jazeera. To add, the Foreign Minister said the US asked Iraq to close most land borders with Iran as part of US Treasury measures to pressure Iran's economy. A Saudi Aramco administrative building in Riyadh reportedly sustained limited damage from falling shrapnel amid a fresh wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with no casualties reported, according to the Saudi Energy Ministry and Saudi Press Agency. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis towards Riyadh on Sunday, following reports of loud explosions in the Saudi capital. Houthi-run Yemeni Transport Ministry said international shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all commercial vessels except ships belonging to "the Saudi enemy". Israel's political leadership has not directed the IDF to attack Iran, according to Kan News citing sources. Such a directive could come, and is considered one of the possible alternatives; some even believe it to be the most likely. US aid to Israel reportedly remains under discussion despite President Trump's announcement that assistance would end by year-end, according to i24NEWS citing a source. Israel is seeking to negotiate a gradual phase-out of aid, with discreet talks underway to reach a mutually acceptable arrangement. Israeli President Herzog authorised Gadi Eisenkot to form a new government following the October 27 election. US President Trump reportedly told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a phone call on Thursday that he wants Israel to take steps to implement his Gaza peace plan, according to Axios citing two sources. Israel's Defence Minister Katz said Iran is attempting to revive efforts to acquire nuclear weapons and is undertaking other activities that pose a serious threat to Israel's security, adding that Israel cannot accept such threats. Iraq's Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region was reportedly struck by a drone attack, with smoke observed near the facility, according to sources. Following this, reports highlighted that production has been halted at the field. This was later confirmed by Dana Gas. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks ended mixed. Tech stocks rallied on Friday, led by a turnaround in AI-related names following Thursday's sharp sell-off, although the sector still has some way to go to recover recent losses. The rebound was accompanied by a stellar US jobs report, which saw the US economy add 165k jobs in October, well above the 65k forecast, while the prior two months were revised higher by a net 84k. The unemployment rate also declined to 4.14% from 4.2%, despite an uptick in participation, while wage growth exceeded expectations. SPX +0.33% at 7,378, NDX +1.35% at 26,990, DJI -0.46% at 51,286, RUT +0.85% at 2,753. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE The US warned China that it must immediately fulfil the terms of the trade truce struck by US President Trump and Chinese President Xi in Busan in October 2025, according to the FT. US officials said China is fulfilling only two-thirds of its rare earth commitments and has failed to increase supply. China's MoF suspended the 24% additional tariff on US imports for two months, keeping the 10% tariff rate in place, effective November 10. Additionally, China's transport ministry said it is to continue suspending special port fees on US ships until January 10, 2027. China's MOFCOM firmly opposed the sanctioning of two Chinese companies and urged the US to promptly correct its mistaken practices and said it reserves the right to take necessary measures and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. Canadian PM Carney said Canada will continue to work with the Americans to get a trade deal that works for Canada. US Treasury Department added eight Canadian firms to its sanctions list for conducting business with Iran. NOTABLE HEADLINES US President Trump said he expects to meet with Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin. US President Trump urged all senators to vote for The American Affordability and Jobs Act, saying this bill is a big win for US energy independence and dominance. Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said inflation remains too high and stubborn, requiring further monetary policy tightening, although the timing and extent of additional hikes will depend on incoming data. She backed September's rate hike and the subsequent hold, noting policy is only slightly restrictive to neutral and not yet sufficiently restrictive. She said a strong labour market gives the Fed room to tackle inflation, while wage growth remains subdued and real wages are falling. She noted AI-related market repricing has been orderly and could modestly weigh on growth, but she is not concerned about a substantial economic slowdown. NVIDIA's (NVDA) Board initiated an independent investigation following reports that CEO Jensen Huang has been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. To add, in a memo to staff, the CEO apologised for his affair and said he is fully cooperating with the investigation. Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly winding down its Oracle (ORCL) deal to rent AI cloud capacity, according to Bloomberg. Anthropic is reportedly proceeding with plans for an IPO before US Thanksgiving, targeting proceeds of USD 80-100bln at a valuation of USD 1.25-1.75tln, below the USD 2tln sought by its most bullish investors, according to the FT citing investors. Anthropic reportedly agreed to purchase commitments for 1.7GW of gas-fired generators from OnePWR Solutions for USD 3.4bln in September to support data centre power requirements, according to the FT. OpenAI reportedly secured c. USD 11bln in initial funding as part of a financing round valuing the company at USD 1.25tln, Bloomberg reported citing sources. US House Democratic Leader Jeffries said War Secretary Hegseth has abused his power and undermined national security over the Iran war, which he claims has driven up prices and made the US less safe. He added House Democrats will discuss a potential resolution on Tuesday. APAC TRADE EQUITIES Asia-Pac stocks started the week on a broadly positive footing, as tech names followed the price action seen in their US peers on Friday. Despite the bounce, analysts see this as short-lived, as flows suggested that investors used Friday’s bounce to cut risk on both sides. Leading gains across Asia was Taiwan, after the FSC announced short-selling restrictions while the Finance Ministry said it is prepared to deploy its TWD 500bln stock market stabilisation fund. ASX 200 was the slight laggard, spending the majority of the session in the red before managing to eke out mild gains. Another big bank reported earnings, with ANZ’s FY cash profit slightly beating estimates; however, shares are lower. Nikkei 225 followed Taiwan's TAIEX higher, printed gains of over 3% and regained the 59k handle. KOSPI was initially lower by as much as 1%, but managed to reverse higher but was choppy into the close. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng opened higher, in line with the broader market sentiment. Inflation metrics were mixed for October, with headline CPI Y/Y printing at 0.7% (exp. 0.8%) while the PPI metric accelerated to 5.7% (exp. 5.3%). US equity futures opened mixed, with the NQ initially lower by as much as 1%, but reversed amid the broader constructive risk tone. The main catalyst was the statement from NVIDIA, with the Board initiating an independent investigation following reports that CEO Jensen Huang has been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. Shares of NVIDIA are lower by over 4% in overnight trade. European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after cash closed -1.1% on Friday. FX DXY was slightly softer, and traded in a narrow 102.13-102.28 range, as it consolidated following Friday’s upside move given the strong US jobs report. The headline figure beat estimates (165K vs Exp. 65K), while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%. Market pricing sees a 79% chance of a hike in December. EUR and GBP were modestly firmer, with the former back above 1.1140 while the latter bounced from 1.3350. A light docket in Europe and the UK, as the UK waits for growth figures on Thursday. JPY followed its peers, with USD/JPY contained in a 158.15-158.53 range. The latest MoF intervention data was released, confirming three yen-buying interventions totalling JPY 15.4tln. Antipodeans were the outperformers, supported by the broader risk tone and strength in the precious metals space. Furthermore, the NZD was being helped by the weekend’s elections. PM Luxon's National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes had been counted. FIXED INCOME UST 10yr Futures are lower by a couple of ticks and returned below the 107-04 price point seen before the strong jobs report. To recap, the headline figure beat estimates (165K vs Exp. 65K), while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%. Market pricing sees a 79% chance of a hike in December. Bund 10yr Futures followed their US counterpart lower and briefly slipped below the 123.00 handle. ECB President Lagarde gave comments to Japanese press, in which she said inflation would remain elevated in the coming quarters. JGB 10yr Futures continued to fall from the 128.39 peak seen in Friday’s session but failed to hold below Friday's trough of 127.59, as they held in a 127.51-127.82 range. COMMODITIES Crude futures lacked clear direction, with the weakness at the open being briefly erased before a fresh bout of weakness as European trade neared. The initial weakness at the open was driven by positive rhetoric by US President Trump, telling CNN that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, downbeat comments by US Secretary of State Rubio and reports of continued strikes in the Strait of Hormuz limited the downside in energy benchmarks. Rubio said talks with Iran are not productive as the Iranian demands are simply unacceptable and said that sometimes a diplomatic solution is not possible. To add, US CENTCOM announced Task Force Iron Gate, as it continues to target Iran’s economy. WTI and Brent held in their respective USD 89.80-91.42/bbl and USD 96.57-98.43/bbl ranges. Precious metals trended higher, with spot gold residing at the upper end of its USD 4,054-4,134/oz range, despite higher yields. One underlying factor supporting the yellow metal is China, with data showing that the PBoC added 830k ounces of gold to its reserves in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months. 3M LME Copper benefited from the constructive risk tone across markets, as the red metal resided at the top end of its USD 13.8k-13.91k/t range. Baker Hughes Rig Count: Oil +1 at 463, Natgas +1 at 131, Total +1 at 604. At least four oil companies are reportedly seeking US government licences to purchase or lease sanctioned oil tankers in an effort to ease vessel shortages and lower oil prices, according to Bloomberg citing sources. The China Enterprise Reform and Development Society said China is expected to invest USD 940bln in energy in 2026, CCTV reported. The PBoC added 830k ounces of gold to its reserves in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months. CRYPTO Bitcoin aggressively fell late in Sunday's session from USD 75.50k to a trough of USD 73.48k in 15 minutes but consolidated in a narrow USD 74.39k-75.5k range throughout Asia-Pac trade. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES RBA's Hunter said AI has yet to deliver a material productivity boost or trigger significant job losses, with limited evidence of large effects on aggregate employment in advanced economies. TSMC (2330 TT) denied reports that it plans to enter the memory semiconductor market, saying it will remain focused on its existing foundry business. Chinese banks have reportedly sharply increased USD deposit rates in recent weeks, with some rates exceeding 4%, while exporters are hoarding dollar cash, according to sources. Market stabilisation measures are evolving into a long-term component of China's financial governance framework, moving beyond temporary responses to short-term market volatility, according to China Securities Times. China's NDRC flagged weak domestic demand as a key economic challenge, with Director Zheng Shanjie pledging measures to boost private investment, advance major projects, strengthen economic monitoring and develop further policy proposals for next year. China's CPCA reported October passenger vehicle sales of 1.65mln units, down 27.3% Y/Y. The Japanese government reportedly began discussions on a subsidy programme to partially cover cybersecurity costs for regional banks, with a budget expected to total several billion yen, Kyodo reported. New Zealand PM Luxon's National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes had been counted, enough for a majority, although the result could change following the counting of special ballots and the opposition has yet to concede. DATA RECAP Chinese CPI (Oct YY) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%); Core 0.8% vs Exp. 0.9%. Chinese CPI (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.2%). Chinese PPI (Oct YY) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.0%). Japanese Leading Economic Index Prel (Sep) 116.4 vs. Exp. 116.7 (Prev. 118.0). Japanese Coincident Index Prel (Sep) 119.5 (Prev. 118.8). GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump told CBS' 60 Minutes that he expects a different shape of Ukraine when the war ends. Russia's delegation to talks in the UAE beginning Tuesday will reportedly be led by presidential aide Medinsky and include Deputy Foreign Ministers Ryabkov and Galuzin, military intelligence chief Kostyukov and senior General Staff officer Zhigarlovsky, according to Interfax citing Kremlin spokesman Peskov. France's Foreign Minister said European countries will send a strong delegation to the Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi. Russian Defence Ministry said its forces conducted drone strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and vessels supporting Ukrainian forces, hitting a dry-cargo ship carrying military equipment off Odesa, a container ship transporting dual-use goods at Chornomorsk port and the 330kV Kamyanska substation in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine's operations targeting the Russian oil refining sector are ongoing in response to attacks on its energy facilities, Al Jazeera reported. Ukraine reportedly targeted Russia's Saratov oil refinery (140k BPD) in the Volga region, Bloomberg reported citing sources. Naftogaz said a facility in central Ukraine has been struck three times, damaging equipment and sparking a large-scale fire. IAEA said power has been restored to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES ECB President Lagarde told Yomiuri Shimbun that headline inflation in October was higher than the ECB expected a few months ago but in line with market expectations and that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come. She reiterated that they currently do not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in their projections. She highlighted that it is not appropriate to pre-empt inflation forecasts but noted that the energy futures curve has risen since their September projections. She reiterated data-dependence and a meeting-by-meeting basis. On the use of TPI, if necessary, she said they have multiple tools and a big toolbox. ECB Presidential candidate de Cos told Tages-Anzeiger that second-round effects haven't appeared so far but vigilance is needed regarding inflation risks. ECB Presidential candidate Knot said he is open to developing new tools to combat a potential European debt crisis if appointed ECB President, according to the FT. The EU and the UK are reportedly in the final stages of an agreement to link their emissions trading systems, with an announcement expected at a summit later this month, according to Bloomberg sources. The deal would allow cross-border trading of carbon permits, boost market liquidity and reduce carbon border taxes for companies, with negotiators having agreed on emissions caps, supply controls and free permits. The UK government is reportedly expected to cut its 2030 EV sales target by 25%, The Guardian reported. Morningstar DBRS confirmed Germany at AAA; trend stable. S&P revised Poland's outlook to negative; affirmed "A-/A-2" foreign currency ratings; lowered local currency ratings to "A-/A-2".