Newsquawk米国市場寄り付きニュース - 2026年10月30日

A Qatari delegation has arrived in Tehran to advance efforts towards a US-Iran agreement. The US reportedly informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is a prerequisite for negotiations, according to Al Arabiya. BoJ left rates unchanged, with Governor Ueda leaving the door open for a hike in December. NQ futures extend its drop following disappointing Amazon and Intel earnings. DXY is slightly softer; EUR firmer but unfazed amid a busy EZ data docket. Fixed income benchmarks are firmer despite higher energy prices (Brent +2.7%). Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI Flash (Oct), Canadian GDP (Aug), CBRT Minutes (Oct). Speakers include ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Musalem, Daly, Barkin, Hammack & Cook. Earnings from AbbVie & Colgate-Palmolive. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9% DAX40 -0.5% Stoxx 600 -0.3% FTSE 100 +0.2% ES Dec'26 -1.1% RTY Dec'26 -0.7% NQ Dec'26 -2.4% YM Dec'26 U/C FX DXY -0.2% (101.66) EUR/USD +0.2% (1.1200) USD/JPY -0.3% (157.27) GBP/USD +0.4% (1.3428) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +14 ticks Bund Dec'26 +11 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.929% German 10yr Yield 3.343% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +2.2% Brent Jan'27 +2.4% Spot Gold -0.9% LME Copper -0.8% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.6% Ethereum -1.1% As of 10:30GMT / 06:30EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses are mixed to start the final trading session of the week, with the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) outperforming following positive earnings from AstraZeneca and BP, outweighing disappointment from NatWest. Starting with Astra (+3.3%), its Q3 adj. EPS and revenue beat estimates, with sales for its blockbusters Imfinzi and Tagrisso also higher than expected. As well as reconfirming FY guidance, the pharma giant announced a cost-savings plan over three years, which includes a USD 2bln one-time restructuring charge. For BP (+0.4%), its profit surged to the highest in 18 years, while its focus on cutting debt continues to pay off. To end with NatWest (-4.3%), despite the bank sticking with its FY guidance, its shares are under pressure, with some analysts pointing to a lack of certainty around earnings from interest in the coming years. Other key movers include: Sanofi +5.5%, upgrades its FY profit forecast as Dupixent sales top estimates; Credit Agricole -2.0%, a mixed report as capital missed estimates and loan losses rose; Audi, cuts its FY operating margin guidance; Evonik, rejects takeover talks with BASF; Puma +7.2%, narrows its 2026 operating loss guidance as Q3 sales beat expectations. US equity futures are mostly lower, with the NQ (-2.4%) sliding for another session after disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel. For Amazon (-6.7% pre-market), its Q3 EPS and Q4 operating income guidance missed estimates while Intel's (-25.8% pre-market) Q4 EPS and revenue guide missed consensus. NQ futures now slip below the 29k mark, as focus turns to the 200-SMA at 28.5k. Amazon (AMZN) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 1.89 (exp. 1.97), Sales 201.9bln (exp. 202.2bln), sees Q4 Oper. income 28.5bln-33.5bln (exp. 33.2bln), sales 240bln-247bln (exp. 244.2bln). Intel (INTC) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.52 (exp. 0.41), Revenue 16.5bln (exp. 16.6bln), sees Q4 Adj. EPS 0.25 (exp. 0.44), Revenue 15bln-16bln (exp. 17.1bln). Click for the session's European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX DXY is lower by 0.2% within a 101.56 to 101.91 range, following Thursday's losses, which came alongside lower yields and the in-line PCE data, although the downside was contained by the better-than-expected Q3 GDP. Today's US docket includes the Q3 Employment Cost Index at 12:30GMT/08:30EDT and Chicago PMI at 13:45GMT/09:45EDT, while Fed's Barkin and Daly are due to speak, alongside Musalem, Hammack (dissenter) and Cook (surprise dissenter). USD/JPY sits towards the bottom end of a 157.12 to 157.90 range. The BoJ kept rates at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8-1 vote, with Takata proposing a hike to 1.5%; the Bank said underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with the price target and that risks to prices are skewed to the upside. It also set the pace of its ETF sales at around JPY 860bln a year from January, while the Fiscal 2027 Core CPI forecast was raised to 2.6% (prev. 2.4%). At his press conference, Governor Ueda said it is too early to declare the inflation target achieved and that the Bank will assess risks at every meeting, including December; USD/JPY fell 32 pips to 157.12 on the decision, before paring half of the move. USD/JPY was choppy within a 157.44 to 157.75 range during the presser. Overnight, Tokyo CPI was softer than expected at 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.3%), with Core in line at 2.6%. Thereafter, Japanese FinMin Katayama said it is about time to judge that the BoJ's 2% inflation target has been largely achieved. EUR/USD is firmer and holds around the 1.1200 mark, within a 1.1171 to 1.1215 range, after gaining in the aftermath of Thursday's ECB hold, with ECB source reports indicating policymakers are prepared to raise rates in December. This morning, ECB's Simkus said holding rates does not mean there are no more hikes to come, while Rehn said the growth and inflation outlook is still very uncertain. French HICP was hotter than expected at 3.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.6%), though French Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted 0.1% Q/Q (exp. +0.1%); Spanish CPI and GDP were in line. German Q3 GDP topped forecasts at 0.2% Q/Q (exp. 0.1%), while Italian GDP was flat (exp. 0.1% Q/Q), and the German state CPIs all cooled on a Y/Y basis (in line with the expectations for the national figure); EUR/USD saw little reaction to the above data. GBP/USD is firmer and holds above the 1.3400 handle, at the top end of a 1.3374 to 1.3433 range. EUR/GBP is lower within a 0.8340 to 0.8365 range, having printed a fresh 2026 low, with 0.8333 (equivalent to GBP/EUR 1.2000) the next level of note. UK Nationwide Housing Prices were flat M/M (exp. -0.1%), while the UK docket is light for the remainder of the session. The Antipodeans are mixed, with NZD/USD higher within a 0.5624 to 0.5649 range, and AUD/USD flat within a 0.7018 to 0.7043 range. RBNZ's Hansen said a December hike is 50-50, while Silk is said to support a December hike if current conditions persist, Bloomberg reported. USD/CNH trades within a 6.6496 to 6.6576 range, printing a fresh 52-week low. The PBoC changed its 7-day reverse repo operations to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions, and said other tools will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, which was kept at 1.25%. FIXED INCOME A firmer final session of the week so far for fixed, with benchmarks at/towards fresh WTD highs in the early morning, but since slipping just off those as energy continues to inch higher. Upside for the space is generally a function of the week's major central banks not tightening and a tech sell-off, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ all on hold and to varying degrees outlining focus on the growth narrative and tighter financial market conditions, which could theoretically serve to limit the need for tightening ahead. However, all are on track for a hike by end-2026; currently, CME has a 74% implied chance of a December Fed hike, for instance. Policy aside, the other main focus point for today is geopolitics. The main update is a Qatari delegation arriving in Tehran for mediation efforts. Though given the dismissive approach US President Trump reportedly took to VP Vance's outreach, and recent reporting keeping post-midterm strikes very much in play, it remains to be seen whether this effort can progress the situation. USTs are at a 106-27 high for the week, firmer by 14 ticks on the day at best. Bunds also bid, though off highs as Dutch TTF continues to climb. As it stands, firmer by about 10 ticks, but some 40 off the 122.64 WTD peak. As above, the path for the ECB is towards a December hike, but risks to tightening then, but more so thereafter, are present from the yield and growth backdrop; see Thursday’s post-meeting analysis for more. Gilts in-fitting with the above directionally, but as usual have been a touch more susceptible to the energy upside, with the benchmark back to flat at the time of publication, in 85.44 to 86.12 confines. Finally, OATs and BTPs are both under pressure this morning, weighed on by the firmer-than-expected preliminary inflation reads from the nations, and as EZ-wide growth for Q3 proves resilient. A combination that theoretically gives the ECB policy space to take action, while the inflation prints may well be revised higher given the marked energy upside, particularly in Dutch TTF, seen towards month-end. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks are firmer, after rebounding overnight as headlines continued to highlight a potential resumption of strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. WTI Dec'26 is higher within a USD 102.43-104.99/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 99.79-103.00/bbl range), while Brent Jan'27 trades within a USD 111.03-114.07/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 109.02-111.80/bbl range). In terms of geopolitics, a US official said the White House believes the chances of a settlement with Iran may be dwindling, although US envoy Barrack said Washington is very close to an agreement. Benchmarks dipped by around USD 0.65/bbl after Reuters reported that Qatari mediators will return to Tehran on Friday to help reach a US-Iran deal; Iranian state media later said the delegation has arrived. Elsewhere, and looking ahead, OPEC+ meets on Sunday, where sources said the group is expected to maintain its December production targets. Dutch TTF is higher by over 4% at the time of writing and holds above the EUR 100/MWh mark, within a EUR 98.68-102.03/MWh range. Spot gold is softer and holds just beneath USD 4,000/oz, within a USD 3,965-4,026/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 4,005-4,068/oz range). Spot silver is lower by 2.5% within a USD 50.44-52.24/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 51.97-54.40/oz range), while platinum and palladium futures are lower by 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively, at the time of writing. Base metals are mixed, with 3M LME copper in a narrow USD 14,244.80-14,379.13/t range. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry affirmed no plan to release oil reserves in November as it expects to secure 100% of oil for November. TRADE/TARIFFS China's Foreign Ministry said China will take necessary measures to defend its rights in response to US FCC measures against Chinese firms. Chinese President Xi told the Swiss President that the upgraded trade agreement fully reflects both nations' political courage and sense of responsibility in upholding open cooperation. EU's Kallas said the EU's relations with Canada are entering a new era and they will deepen ties on security and defence, trade, critical raw materials and digital, as well as bring their people closer together. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q4): Headline and core inflation expectations revised upwards for 2026 and 2027, owing primarily to higher energy prices and their indirect effects, with longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored at 2.0%. BoE DMP (Oct): 1-year CPI expectation 3.3% (prev. 3.1%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). Year-ahead wage growth 3.4% (prev. 3.4%). Councils in England are in open revolt against changes to strip elected councillors of planning powers and hand decisions to unelected officials, according to The Times. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%). European GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%). German GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%). German GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.0%). German Saxony CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% (Prev. 3.4%). German Saxony CPI (Oct MM) -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%). German Import Prices (Sep MM) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.0%). German Import Prices (Sep YY) 10.4% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 8.3%). French HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.4%). French HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.3%). French GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 QQ) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.0%). French GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 YY) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%). Spanish HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 5.0%). Spanish HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%). Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.6%). Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%). Italian HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 5.6% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.2%). Italian HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.1%). Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 QQ) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%). Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 YY) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.0%). UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%). UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Oct YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.8%). UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Oct) 47 (Prev. 41). CENTRAL BANKS BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8-1 vote with Takata the dissenter as he proposed raising the short-term interest rate target to 1.5%, but the proposal was rejected by the board, while it stated that underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with the price target and it will continue raising interest rates in response to economic and price developments, as well as financial conditions. BoJ said there is a risk that underlying inflation could overshoot the price target and that risks to prices are skewed to the upside, while it decided to sell ETF holdings at a scale of about 0.1% of market trading value with the pace of ETF sales set at around JPY 860bln per year on a book value basis from January and noted that ETF holdings sales would take about 43 years to complete, compared with approximately 112 years previously. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, the median forecast for Core CPI was maintained at 2.5% for Fiscal 2026, raised to 2.6% from 2.4% for Fiscal 2027 and maintained at 2.0% for Fiscal 2028, while forecasts for Real GDP were raised to 0.7% from 0.6% for Fiscal 2026, lowered to 0.7% from 0.8% for Fiscal 2027 and maintained at 0.8% for Fiscal 2028. In the press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda noted that he is aware there is still a gap between the neutral rate and the policy rate. On inflation, he said that all members agreed that underlying inflation has reached 2% but said it is too early to declare the inflation target achieved, as inflation must remain stably and sustainably around 2%. On ETF sales, Ueda said a faster pace of ETF sales would have only a limited market impact and that the Bank needs to respond appropriately to upside risks. ECB's Nagel said they will act decisively if needed and that there are no significant second round effects thus far. ECB's Simkus said that holding rates does not mean no more hikes to come, adding that the likelihood of energy spillover has risen, but noted they don't see second round effects yet. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump posted "lINFLATION IS WAY DOWN UNDER “TRUMP.” INCOME FOR PEOPLE & COMPANIES IS WAY UP! The Golden Age of America Is Upon Us." US President Trump cancelled weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas, opting instead to support Republican candidates with telerallies that his party said could reach more voters in nearly two dozen states in the final days before the midterm elections, according to CBS. Cursor AI said it has identified a security incident impacting a modified Claude Code extension, impacting up to 5k users. BofA weekly flow data shows USD 56.2bln into stocks, USD 15.4bln into bonds, USD 3.4bln into cash, USD 0.5bln out of crypto, USD 1.7bln out of gold. Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 7.1 (from 7.2). GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed US President Trump on Thursday regarding the state of war with Iran, with a focus on the ongoing naval blockade, according to two senior officials, while it was separately reported that a top US admiral briefed Trump about Iran attack options, according to WSJ. US envoy Tom Barrack said Washington is very close to an agreement aimed at reducing tensions with Iran, citing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, while he rejected the 'greater Israel' narrative and urged regional powers to take greater responsibility. US official said the White House believes the chances of reaching a settlement with Iran may be dwindling, while the official noted that Istanbul and Doha are the most likely locations if a meeting takes place between US VP Vance and Iran's Rezaei, according to the Washington Post. The US reportedly informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is a prerequisite for negotiations, according to Al Arabiya citing sources. Mediators are discussing allowing inspectors access to Iranian nuclear sites in exchange for the release of some frozen funds. Qatari mediators reportedly returned to Tehran on Friday to advance efforts towards a US-Iran agreement, with talks coordinated with Washington, according to Reuters citing an official briefed on the negotiations. More recently, Iranian press confirmed that a Qatari delegation has arrived in Tehran. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghaei said blaming Iran for the consequences of US military aggression is mitigation and whitewashing of crimes. UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz, with a vessel, although the cause was unknown at the time of the report. IRNA correspondent reported several explosions were heard coming from the direction of the sea and in the sky and waters around Iran's Qeshm Island, while reports also noted that four explosions were heard in Iran's Jask, although the cause was unknown. Explosions and flashes reported near the Strait of Hormuz, while local sources were linking the sounds to vessel warning shots, according to Fars and Al Jazeera. Yemen military warned Houthis against using prohibited combat weapons, while its Defence Ministry was investigating Houthi use of toxic gas in Taiz. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US Pentagon officials have reportedly urged several NATO allies, including Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, to tone down public rhetoric regarding the threat posed by Russia, arguing that some European statements undermine continental security, according to Reuters sources. Messages were delivered in bilateral meetings, although it remains unclear whether other European governments received similar requests. Ukraine's military paused its strikes against Russian oil refineries after weeks of pressure from US President Trump shook Kyiv's confidence in US support, according to WSJ citing people with knowledge of the operations. Russia conducted strikes on military and energy facilities in Ukraine's Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while it struck port facilities in Odesa and cargo vessels, according to its Defence Ministry. Russian Kremlin aide Ushakov said no date has been set yet for Russia-US-Ukraine talks, Interfax reported. OTHER South Korean National Security Advisor said South Korea is to firmly respond to North Korea's crossing of the military demarcation line, and stated that Seoul is continuing to provide support for Ukraine as part of the international community. North Korean leader Kim called for North Korea to seize absolute superiority in drone technology. CRYPTO Bitcoin slips below USD 78k and briefly dipped below USD 77k after Binance said it suffered a USD 6.3bln hack, prompting the exchange to suspend all withdrawals and pledge to cover customer losses. Binance said around USD 3bln in stolen assets have been frozen on blockchain networks, with withdrawals expected to resume by Sunday. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were mixed amid notable tech weakness, with the sector further pressured following disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel, while participants also digested a slew of data at month-end. ASX 200 traded higher as softer yields helped offset the losses in tech, consumer staples and mining. Nikkei 225 was pressured amid the tech woes, while participants also digested a slew of mixed data releases and the BoJ policy announcement, in which the central bank kept rates unchanged, declared reaching the price target and accelerated the pace of its ETF sales. KOSPI underperformed and triggered a sidecar after the recent weak big tech earnings stateside. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid a deluge of earnings and with Hong Kong outperforming as platform companies picked up the slack from chipmakers, while the mainland was subdued following a record number of purges at the Fifth Plenum. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES PBoC maintained the overnight reverse repo rate at 1.25% (prev. 1.25%) and shifted 7-day reverse repo operations to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. Said other liquidity tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repos, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, while 7-day operations will primarily be conducted around tax periods and month-end. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.7%). Japanese Tokyo Core CPI (Oct YY) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.7%). Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (Oct YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%). Japanese Unemployment Rate (Sep) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%). Japanese Retail Sales (Sep MM) -0.7% (Prev. -1.2%). Japanese Retail Sales (Sep YY) 2.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.9%). Japanese Industrial Production Prel (Sep MM) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -2.4%). Japanese Industrial Production Prel (Sep YY) 1.9% (Prev. 2.7%). Australian PPI (Q3 YY) 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%). Australian PPI (Q3 QQ) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.3%). South Korean Industrial Production (Sep MM) 9.0% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. -4.6%). South Korean Retail Sales (Sep MM) 3.6% (Prev. -1.8%).