Newsquawk米国市場総括 - CoreWeaveの決算でAI懸念が和らぎ、株価上昇

SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasury futures down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down. REAR VIEW: Strong CRWV earnings; Iran's Rezaei threatens to target "distant" US military bases if Iran is attacked; Goolsbee said October inflation was "borderline disturbing"; ANT IPO reportedly multiple times oversubscribed; OPEC maintains 2026 and 2027 demand and supply forecasts; US Envoy Kushner said significant disagreements remain on Ukraine; Vance reportedly considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official. COMING UP: Data: UK GDP (Q3/Sep), US Jobless Claims (Nov/07), Existing Home Sales (Oct) Speakers: BoJ’s Asada; Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams, Barr, Schmid; ECB President Lagarde Supply: Japan, Italy, UK, US Earnings: Cisco, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz, Nebius. MARKET WRAP Stocks closed in the green on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq outperforming as technology stocks extended their recovery amid the ongoing AI rebound. Sentiment was supported by strong earnings from CoreWeave (CRWV) after-hours Tuesday, with shares rallying 24.5%, reversing some of the recent weakness and helping ease concerns surrounding the sector. The report also boosted other neocloud names, with attention turning to Nebius (NBIS) earnings on Thursday for further insight into the sector. Given the rebound in neocloud names easing some data centre concerns, hyperscalers have seen some pressure, with META, MSFT, and AMZN all closing lower, as it may reduce the demand for them to pick up some of the excess slack. Crude prices settled firmer following further remarks from Iranian Security Chief Rezaei, who warned that distant US military bases would be targeted in the event of another attack on Iran. He also reiterated that Iran would not export enriched uranium, seemingly rejecting a key US demand, and insisted Washington must respond to Tehran's seven-point plan. However, US VP Vance is reportedly considering a meeting with Rezaei in an effort to end the conflict. Attention also remained on trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US, which delivered mixed signals. Russia's chief negotiator Medinsky suggested the sides were moving closer to peace, although much depends on the participants, while US Special Envoy Kushner said significant disagreements remain. Ukrainian President Zelensky added that Russia had rejected ceasefire proposals. The risk-on environment weighed on Treasury futures, although cash trading was closed for Veterans Day. Firmer oil prices also likely contributed to the pressure, alongside the lingering impact of Tuesday's hawkish Fed repricing following Waller's comments and the hotter-than-expected CPI report. After-hours Tuesday, Goolsbee (2027 voter) described the inflation report as "borderline disturbing", while Paulson (2026 voter) continued to favour gradual rate hikes but warned that more aggressive tightening may be required if the inflation picture deteriorates. In FX, the Dollar extended its outperformance, with the Yen and Swiss Franc remaining under pressure amid the widening yield differentials following Tuesday's hawkish developments and further weakness in Treasury futures. USD/JPY reached a high of 159.94, approaching the 160.00 level, while EUR/USD fell to a YTD low of 1.1083. Spot gold also came under pressure, falling below USD 4,000/oz after reaching an earlier session high of USD 4,067/oz. FED BOWMAN (voter): In the Q&A of her speech on Tuesday, Bowman said that inflation expectations are an important data point, but they are not necessarily controlling how she thinks about things, noting they are very well anchored. She acknowledged she is shifting her focus to inflation, and that she would need to see AI and Middle East risks abate before she could be confident inflation will come down next year. In terms of the path forward, Bowman highlighted how the Fed cut rates gradually last year, and then paused before resuming, stating the Fed may work the same way to address inflation in the coming months - signalling a hike, pause, hike strategy. The Governor added that the fact that inflation is not on a downward trend should give the Fed pause, noting the Fed needs to think about what pace and what timeline are needed to address above-target inflation. PAULSON (2026 voter): Said further gradual rate hikes are appropriate to bring monetary policy to a somewhat restrictive level, although the exact path will depend on how the economy evolves and the Fed is prepared to tighten more aggressively if the inflation outlook deteriorates. She supported the Fed's recent rate decisions, noting that gradual tightening has allowed policymakers to assess the impact of higher rates while giving the economy time to adjust. On inflation, Paulson warned that the latest CPI data showed price pressures remain problematic, with underlying inflation stuck between 2.5% and 3%, suggesting the Fed has more work to do to restore price stability. She also highlighted uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of AI investment and energy prices. Regarding the economy, Paulson noted that growth has been stronger than expected, while the labour market remains robust and stable. GOOLSBEE (2027 voter): Said the latest CPI report was borderline disturbing, warning that inflation remains a significant problem that the Fed will need to address. He expressed particular concern that services inflation is not easing, noting that price pressures are being driven by both supply-side costs and stronger demand, raising fears of broader overheating across the economy. Goolsbee stressed that persistent inflation could become embedded in inflation expectations, which would be a major concern for policymakers. On monetary policy, he reiterated that the Fed must bring inflation back to its 2% target and that all options remain on the table if price pressures fail to subside. Regarding the labour market, he noted that employment conditions remain steady and stable. FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 7 TICKS LOWER AT 106-01 THE DAY: Cash Treasury trading was closed on account of Veterans Day, making for a relatively quiet session. However, T-note futures trended lower throughout the day, seemingly weighed on by rising oil prices and the continued recovery in equities. Crude prices gained following hawkish rhetoric from Iran's Security Chief Rezaei, who warned that any renewed attack on Iran would also be met with strikes on "distant" US military bases, while adding that Iran would not remove any enriched nuclear material from the country, seemingly rejecting a key US demand in negotiations. Elsewhere, Russia-Ukraine talks took place in Abu Dhabi, with Russia describing the discussions as substantial and very useful, although US Special Envoy Kushner said significant gaps remain despite the earlier Russian optimism. The continued rebound in equities also likely weighed on Treasury futures, with technology and AI-related stocks recovering further. Sentiment was supported by a strong earnings report from CoreWeave (CRWV) on Tuesday evening, helping lift other recently beaten-down neocloud names and easing some concerns surrounding the sector. Meanwhile, markets continued to digest Tuesday's hawkish Fed developments following Waller's comments and the hotter-than-expected October CPI report. After-hours Tuesday, Goolsbee (2027 voter) described the inflation report as borderline disturbing, while Paulson (2026 voter) said the Fed may need to tighten more aggressively if inflation deteriorates. However, Paulson favoured further gradual hikes for now, striking a less hawkish tone than Waller and Logan regarding the potential need to accelerate tightening. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Fed officials are debating whether NY Fed President Williams must step down in June 2027, when he turns 65, or whether he can remain until June 2028. The discussion reportedly concerns Fed retirement rules rather than his performance. Looking ahead, attention turns to Thursday's 30-year Treasury auction and a plethora of Fed speak, followed by US PPI on Friday. Next week brings the FOMC Minutes and US retail sales report. CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 0.49 HIGHER AT 86.53/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 1.27 HIGHER AT 92.76/BBL The crude complex was firmer amid some punchy rhetoric out of Iran. Although energy benchmarks strengthened on Wednesday, they remain a long way off recent highs, given the more constructive tone between the US and Iran over the past week or so. WTI and Brent rose in the European morning after Al Mayadeen reported that Iran’s Rezaei said any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases as well, and that Iran will not remove any enriched nuclear material from the country. WTI and Brent then gradually moved higher through the European session to highs of USD 88.74/bbl and USD 94.73/bbl, respectively, before paring some of the gains through the US afternoon. Adding to the punchier tone, Fars reported that “naval mines blow up two more illegal tankers in the Strait of Hormuz” overnight, saying they were oil tankers supported by US “fighter planes”. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported around settlement that VP Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official, in an effort to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party. However, plans are reportedly at a preliminary stage. Trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US ended in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday. While the tone was broadly constructive, there was no significant breakthrough. As expected, all three sides gave readouts. Russia’s top Ukraine negotiator Medinsky said it seems they are closer to peace, but that a lot now depends on all participants in the process, while Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said there is a foundation for further work. For Ukraine, negotiator Umerov said talks should be multilateral rather than trilateral, with Europe involved, and that there is good momentum towards a solution before end-2026. Lastly, US Envoy Kushner said he and Witkoff will travel to Russia to meet President Putin on Thursday, before meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky. He added that progress was made on Ukrainian security guarantees. However, oil saw some upside as he noted that significant disagreements remain. In the November MOMR, OPEC left its 2026 and 2027 demand and supply forecasts unchanged from the prior report. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX +1.27% at 7,617, NDX +2.28% at 28,374, DJI +0.48% at 52,481, RUT +0.86% at 2,846. SECTORS: Technology +2.71%, Energy +1.81%, Industrials +1.32%, Communication Services +0.91%, Financials +0.59%, Consumer Staples +0.53%, Materials +0.45%, Utilities +0.26%, Health +0.06%, Real Estate +0.03%, Consumer Discretionary -0.36%. EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +1.12% at 26,642, FTSE 100 +0.78% at 10,835, CAC 40 +0.66% at 8,333, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.08% at 6,396, AEX +1.12% at 1,145, IBEX 35 +0.46% at 20,028, FTSE MIB +0.37% at 51,947, SMI +0.11% at 15,054. STOCK SPECIFICS: CoreWeave (CRWV) reported stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue and profits, alongside upgraded FY guidance and a growing order backlog; the release highlighted robust AI infrastructure demand. Anthropic IPO multiple times oversubscribed, according to reports. Nvidia (NVDA) chips reportedly reach blacklisted Chinese entities. On the sell-side, Baird downgraded shares & cut PT to USD 200/shr (prev. USD 500/shr), while MS removed it as a 'Top Pick'. Nissan Motor (NSANY) cut FY vehicle sales forecast to 2.97-3.0mln units (prev. 3.15mln) amid weak Chinese demand and intensifying EV competition. Michael Burry purchased an undisclosed amount of shares in Lululemon (LULU). FX The Dollar Index continued to move higher following Tuesday’s hawkish Fed repricing, in the wake of Waller’s remarks and the hotter-than-expected CPI report. Along the same lines, Paulson (2026 voter) said overnight that the Fed will move more aggressively if the inflation landscape worsens, but reiterated the party line that further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation, and that the exact path of policy depends on how the economy evolves. Newsflow was otherwise very thin, with no Fed speak or data due to Veterans Day. On geopolitics, Ukraine-Russia rhetoric was more constructive, albeit with no significant breakthrough, while Iran’s Rezaei struck a punchier tone than in recent talks. Separately, the WSJ reported that US VP Vance is considering a meeting with Rezaei in a push to end the war, although plans are at a preliminary stage and are being handled through mediators. Looking to Thursday, there is plenty of Fed speak (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Schmid and Williams), alongside a 30yr bond auction and weekly jobless claims. As on Tuesday, G10 FX was lower to varying degrees, driven by broad Dollar strength rather than currency-specific newsflow. The havens, CHF and JPY, lagged amid widening yield differentials. For the Swissy, SNB’s Schlegel said the SNB is ready to be active in FX markets. For the Yen, the latest Reuters Tankan showed a broad upswing in Japanese manufacturing sentiment to a five-year high. Despite this, USD/JPY tested 160 to the upside, although ING writes that it increasingly thinks investors will look to buy cheap yen should USD/JPY push above 160 again. High-beta FX also lost ground, but fared relatively better. On central banks, BoE’s Greene said it is appropriate “to proactively tighten our monetary policy stance to lean against the risk of wage growth getting stuck at higher levels”. Newsflow out of Europe was light, but EUR/USD hit a YTD low of 1.1083, with little scheduled in the Bloc for the rest of the week. In EMFX, the PBoC’s Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation Report said the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth. Meanwhile, BCB Governor Galípolo spoke, although there was little reaction in the Real.