[시장 분석] 매파적 연준 발언과 뜨거운 인플레이션 지표가 12월 금리 인상 베팅을 키우고, 가능성은 낮지만 50bp 인상도 거론되면서 DXY가 최근 두드러진 강세 이후 숨 고르기

DXY: Flat Takes a breather after the prior day's notable gains, owing to hot inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed's Waller (voter), who stated that further policy tightening will be needed and that a half-point hike may be warranted in December if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The CPI report then showed core M/M at 0.3%, above expectations, with headline M/M also topping forecasts, prompting a broad-based hawkish reaction across markets. Money markets now assign a 10% probability of a 50bps Fed hike in December, with a 25bps increase fully priced. Elsewhere, Logan (2026 voter) said it is clear the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes, and that it may be possible to raise rates more rapidly this winter than the Fed has done so far, while Fed's Bowman (voter) said persistent inflation and firming labour conditions suggest 'still work to do', but added that financial conditions have tightened and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening. Furthermore, Fed's Paulson (2026 voter) noted that further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation, and Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) suggested that inflation was borderline disturbing, as well as stated that they have real issues on their hands and are going to have to deal with it. EUR/USD: Flat Lingers beneath the 1.1200 handle after suffering against the firmer buck and after comments from ECB officials did little to spur the currency, despite Lane stating that it would be prudent to hike in December if incoming data do not materially change the outlook and with both Kazaks and Nagel suggesting the likelihood of a December rate hike. GBP/USD: Flat Remains at sub-1.3400 territory following the prior day's slide owing to the dollar strength, while it was reported that UK PM Burnham won't accept dynamic alignment of financial services regulations with the EU, backing the City of London's independence from Brussels and showing the limits of his ambitions for a much closer relationship. USD/JPY: +0.1% Kept afloat and approached just shy of the 159.00 level after US yields climbed in the aftermath of the firmer-than-expected US CPI data and hawkish Fed speak. Antipodeans: AUD/USD +0.2% / NZD/USD +0.2% Partially nursed some of the recent losses but with the rebound limited amid the mixed risk appetite and lack of tier-1 data from the region.