뉴스스쿼크 유럽 시장 마감 - 2026년 11월 13일

European bourses were mixed; US equity futures mildly firmer, NVDA -2.3%, after opening with slight gains. Mossad Director is in Washington on Friday for talks with senior Trump administration officials on the Iran war, Axios reported, citing three sources. A dovish leaning US PPI report spurred some mild pressure in the USD, and some short-lived reprieve in USTs. EQUITIES European bourses started the session on a subdued footing, but are now set to end the London session mixed. News flow for the region was ultimately lacking, and this was reflected in fairly rangebound price action. European sectoral performance was split down the middle. Consumer Products were dragged down by losses in Richemont (-4.2%), after its earnings. H1 sales were decent, but sentiment was hit by downbeat commentary on Chinese demand and as gold prices weighed on gross margins. US equities are mildly firmer, with the NQ lagging a touch. Focus remains on the AI situation, after Huang resigned from Nvidia; co. shares were higher by c. 2.2% but has since trimmed that to trade lower on the day. FX Snapshot: G10s were mostly lower against the USD. The Loonie held afloat, whilst the CHF was the marginal laggard, joined closely by the Antipodeans. DXY traded within a 103.05-103.30 range, bringing its WTD gains in excess of 1.5%. To briefly recap the drivers for the strength this week; Fed’s Waller indicated his openness to a 50bps hike, hotter-than-expected US CPI, lack of material progress in trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US talks and punchy Iranian rhetoric. Today saw the release of the US PPI report, whereby headline M/M missed expectations and cooled from the prior, whilst the Core component matched expectations. Overall, a dovish-leaning report which spurred some very mild downside in the index. Now attention turns to the US PCE report later in the month; Pantheon Macro estimates core PCE deflator to print at 0.31%, and core PCE inflation to increase to 3.3% (prev. 3.1% in September). The week has seen USD/JPY breach the 160.00 mark, with the pair up 1.2% WTD. Pressure in the JPY was largely attributed to this week’s USD strength, and the subsequent widening of yield differentials between the Fed and BoJ. The latest leg higher in the pair has brought some Japanese officials out of the woodwork, to offer some renewed verbal intervention – albeit to no avail. Today’s US PPI report offered some reprieve to the JPY, but the move lower in USD/JPY ultimately pared soon after the report. FIXED A bearish finish to the week for global fixed income, although the softer-than-expected US PPI report briefly helped pare losses. The report offered some relief following Tuesday's hot CPI print and hawkish Fed Governor Waller commentary, which reignited debate around a potential 50bps hike in December. The softer PPI data arguably strengthen the case for a more measured 25bps increase. However, the reprieve proved short-lived as oil prices climbed following reports that the Mossad Director was in Washington pushing for a resumption of strikes against Iran, weighing on bond futures and driving them back towards weekly lows. USTs remained under pressure, with T-note futures falling to a WTD low of 105-03, down over two full points on the week. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield rose to 5.17%, its highest level since October 15th, reflecting the substantial repricing of Fed expectations and renewed inflation concerns. Bunds were also lower, trading around 121.80, down approximately 55 ticks on the session and over 100 ticks on the week. Domestic catalysts were limited, with final inflation figures having little impact and ECB commentary offering few fresh policy signals ahead of an expected December rate hike. Gilts followed the broader fixed income weakness, falling to a WTD low of 84.91, approximately 160 ticks below Monday's opening level. UK-specific drivers were limited, although attention turns to next week's Milburn NEET review for potential implications for welfare policy and the government's response. PM Burnham is also due to deliver a key speech on Monday ahead of a visit to the EU on Friday, with investors watching for further developments in UK-EU relations. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks look set to end the London session with very mild gains. The geopolitical environment remains clouded with uncertainty, on both the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran fronts. This week saw important trilateral talks between US-Russia-Ukraine, but no material progress was made. The trio discussed territorial disputes and prisoner exchanges, with the sides agreeing to involve the Europeans in the future. On the US-Iran front, there was punchy rhetoric from an Iranian official this week, who mentioned that distant US bases could be targeted. President Trump mentioned yesterday that the US does not need a deal with Iran, adding further uncertainty to the path to diplomacy. An interesting report via Axios today suggested that the Mossad Director is set to have talks with senior US officials, with Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly pressing Trump to resume the war against Iran. This spurred some mild strength in the crude complex. WTI is set to end the London session within a USD 87.80-89.47/bbl range, whilst Brent sits towards the upper end of a USD 95.06-97.04/bbl confine. Spot gold traded slightly firmer this morning and held within a USD 3,872-3,923/oz range. The yellow-metal saw mild buying following the dovish-leaning US PPI report, but the action was limited in magnitude. Iraqi oil being delivered to European refineries, including in Greece, Italy, and Turkey, according to source reports. Qatar's UCC is transporting 120-150k BPD of Iraqi crude oil to Syria's Baniyas for export. Iraq Energy Police Director said a force is being formed to prevent oil smuggling, with measures being taken to protect pipelines. Violations are not limited to crude oil pipelines. Norwegian Energy Minister said we will correct what is required concerning the 3 oilfields at the centre of the court case; will not ask for a production halt. We now have stricter conditions for issuing permits after this verdict. Commerzbank still expects oil prices to fall further in 2027; European gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before a major LNG capacity expansion expected in H2'28. Caspian Pipeline Consortium raises oil and gas condensate exports via the Black Sea by 6% M/M in October to 6.6mln tonnes, Reuters reported citing sources. Canadian government to invest CAD 200mln in Woodfibre LNG project. Around 100 UK Labour MPs want PM Burnham to approve production at the Rosebank oil field, GB News' Hope reported. Yemeni drones attack Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, Press TV reported; Sabereen adds, potentially in relation to this, "Recording the disclosure report and on behalf of the committee: Three crude oil lines, and none of them have a problem.". Aker BP (AKERBP NO) said work on its Yggdrasil oilfield project remains ongoing; targets start of production in Summer 2027. ADNOC is in talks with international trading firms to sell additional offshore crude through long-term contracts in 2027, Bloomberg reported. ADNOC traditionally favours direct sales to end-users. The state-owned energy company is showing greater willingness to use intermediaries as Persian Gulf oil marketing practices shift following months of regional conflict, the report states. South African gas pipeline operator Rompco expects to finalise an agreement by January 2027 for a new LNG terminal involving Mozambique, Bloomberg reported. CEO said an MOU was signed with Mozambique’s state oil company on 12th November, ahead of a formal agreement. IEA Oil Market Report – November 2026:. World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7mln bpd in 2026, to 102.3mln bpd, before rebounding by 2mln bpd in 2027. Global oil supplies surged by 2.3mln bpd to 105.4mln bpd in October, lifting output by an extraordinary 5.3mln bpd since August. Iranian Oil Minister said that the amount of gas lost by the South Pars platform has been compensated by other platforms; all the employees of the platform that was caught in the fire were rescued, will soon continue work on this platform. Qatar set December Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai USD -10/bbl; land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai USD -9.5/bbl. EUROPEAN DATA European Employment Change Prel (Q3 QQ) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%). European Employment Change Prel (Q3 YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%). European Trade Balance (Sep) -10.3B vs. Exp. -4.5B (Prev. -16.6B). European GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3 YY) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.2%). European GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%). Spanish Core CPI Final (Oct YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%). Spanish HICP Final (Oct MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%). Spanish CPI Final (Oct YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%). Spanish CPI Final (Oct MM) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.3%). Spanish HICP Final (Oct YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 5.0%). French CPI Final (Oct YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.1%). French HICP Final (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%). French CPI Final (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%). French HICP Final (Oct YY) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.4%). German Wholesale Prices (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.9%). German Wholesale Prices (Oct YY) 8.8% (Prev. 8.7%). NOTABLE HEADLINES UK's Milburn review is reportedly to recommend a massive injection of younger workers into public sector as part of his review into NEETs, Sky's Rigby reported. TRADE/TARIFFS Indian Trade Minister said an announcement on a US deal could take place quite soon. An Indian trade official said exports to the US in Apr–Oct 2026 rose to USD 59.52bln (prev. USD 51.99bln Y/Y). MOFCOM said China and the EU discuss preparations for the next round of trade talks. CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Logan (2026 voter) does not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook. Fed’s Collins (2028 voter) does not comment on outlook for monetary policy; said ensuring price stability is a long-run benefit for housing market and higher productivity has helped limit some inflationary pressures. Bank of America adds a 25bps Fed rate hike in January 2027 to its forecast; now expects hikes in December, January and March. Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said have had signs of trouble for several months in a row now. German Chancellor Merz to put forward German candidate for ECB Chief Economist, eyeing Brunnermeier for the role, reported Handelsblatt. ECB's Schnabel said the issue facing Europe is a lack of scale. NBP's Janczyk said they may keep rates unchanged in December. NBP Governor said that they must remain independent as political pressure could make reaching price stability more difficult. Polish Central Bank's Janczyk said it is possible that Poland will not change rates in December. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE German Chancellor Merz said his message to the US before US President Trump meets Russian President Putin is ‘no surprises please’. EU Foreign Ministers to meet on November 16th to discuss Russia. Russia's Kremlin expects the next round of negotiations on a Ukraine peace settlement to take place soon, Interfax reported. Spokesperson said talks with the US addressed the continuation of peace talks, and that there was no basis for changing Russia’s negotiating team. MIDDLE EAST Mossad Director is in Washington on Friday for talks with senior Trump administration officials on the Iran war, Axios reported, citing three sources. Mossad Director Gofman is meeting CIA Director Ratcliffe and is expected to travel to Miami to meet White House envoy Witkoff. Iran FM Aragchi said "Iran still has the right to self-defense in response to an armed attack". Iran's Army said that a few hours ago, an "MQ1" drone of the American aggressor enemy was successfully intercepted and shot down. Iran's General Izadi said "our strikes will not only be in the region and on occupied Palestinian land, but also outside the region", Al Mayadeen reported. The IAEA is reportedly concerned that Iran has not let it examine information or inspect Isfahan uranium enrichment plant declared in June 2025. Iran's Advisor to the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard said that "distant American bases are on our target list". CENTCOM rejects the IRGC’s claim that it attacked a US early-warning radar in Bahrain, saying the IRGC launched two one-way attack drones towards Bahrain, both shot down by US forces, with no injuries or damage. IRGC Navy said a carrier carrying "liquified gas" hit a sea mine east of Hormuz and exploded, while it warned ships against entering restricted Hormuz routes. NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS Some of US President Trump's advisers have discussed whether Commerce Secretary Lutnick should be dismissed, reported CNN citing sources; Trump has also received calls from officials and outside advisers raising concerns about Lutnick. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said core inflation is still contained; Fed should recognise the current situation as an energy supply shock; warns against over-hiking in response to an energy supply shock that is now easing, calling it a noisy number. Lower gasoline prices mean next week’s figure is likely to be benign. The Fed is meant to be forward-looking. Confident the economy is in very good shape with no alarm bells; bond auctions are strong, and the dollar is well-bid. Optimistic the US can reach trade deals with Canada and Mexico; on tariffs, said the US will stick with trade deals that favour the US. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US PPI (Oct) 160.254 (Prev. 159.699). US PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (Oct MM) 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%). US Core PPI (Oct MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.8%). US PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (Oct YY) 4.9% (Prev. 5.0%). US PPI (Oct YY) 6.5% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.3%). US PPI (Oct MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.4%). US Core PPI (Oct YY) 5.0% vs. Exp. 5% (Prev. 5.0%).