유럽 증시 개장: BAYN GY 뇌졸중 치료제 FDA 승인; IFX GY 실적 호조 및 긍정적 전망; VOD LN FY27 이익 및 FCF 가이던스 상향; BT/A LN Starlink 제휴 지연; HEN3 GY FY 매출 성장 전망 상향; MKS LN 야심 찬 중기 목표 제시

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have opened on the front foot, taking cues from overnight APAC trade, where stocks gained as markets continued to rebound after the tech slump, and as oil prices declined amid geopolitical hopes. On the US-Iran front, Trump and Vance held positive talks with Qatar’s PM, while Washington reportedly offered to release USD 6-9bln in Iranian assets. Trump said military action was unlikely, but stressed US readiness to strike if necessary. Elsewhere, preparations are underway for potential US-Iran talks in Doha next week; a Qatari-Pakistani proposal could reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, reopen Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade, Al Hadath reports. Elsewhere, Ukraine-Russia peace talks take place in Abu Dhabi, with US officials reportedly seeing a “real shot” at serious progress towards ending the war. Brent fell below USD 92/bbl after sliding nearly 6% on Monday, while WTI fell towards USD 85/bbl, as Trump suggested further strikes on Iran were unlikely, fuelling hopes of de-escalation. However, negotiations remain unresolved; Secretary of State Marco Rubio has downplayed the prospects of a breakthrough, while Saudi Arabia reported an attack on its East-West pipeline, keeping some upside risks in play. Gold has fallen back towards 4,120/oz, reversing part of Monday’s near 2% gain. Falling oil prices amid hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough eased inflation concerns, but expectations of a December Fed rate hike weighed on bullion. Money markets are pricing an 85% chance the Fed raises rates in December by 25bps. In data, French unemployment eased to 8.2% in Q3 (exp. 8.4%, prev. 8.3%); youth unemployment declined to 21%, while the rate for over-50s rose to 5.6%, its highest since early 2022. The improvement comes amid stagnant economic growth, escalating protests over living costs and uncertainty surrounding the government’s budget. In the UK, BRC October LFL retail sales rose 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%; prev. 1.0%), while total sales increased 1.5% Y/Y (prev. 1.3%). Food sales rose 3.2%, while non-food sales were flat. Higher household costs, caution ahead of the Budget and shoppers awaiting Black Friday discounts constrained spending growth. Elsewhere, Barclays’ October consumer spending rose 2.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.0%), its strongest growth since July 2025. Essential spending increased 3.1%, driven by a 22.7% surge in fuel spending, while non-essential spending rose 1.9%. Entertainment recorded its strongest month since September 2024, although consumer confidence in the UK economy fell to its weakest since April. STOCK SPECIFICS: HEALTHCARE: Bayer (BAYN GY) said that the US FDA had approved Sunharbo (asundexian), a first-in-class Factor XIa inhibitor, for secondary stroke prevention in adults with recent non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or high-risk transient ischaemic attack. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) shares fell 3.5% in extended US trading after a surprise quarterly loss, weaker-than-expected revenue and downgraded FY guidance reflected margin pressure from higher costs associated with branded weight-loss drugs and international expansion, alongside slowing US revenue growth. Partnerships with Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) are expected to support customer retention, although branded weight-loss drugs continue to pressure margins. Roche (ROP SW) presented new Alzheimer’s disease data at CTAD 2026, including updated Phase Ib/IIa Brainshuttle AD trial results for trontinemab demonstrating rapid amyloid removal and changes in key biomarkers; it also outlined the Phase III PrevenTRON trial design for trontinemab in preclinical Alzheimer’s disease, with patient enrolment underway. TECH: Nvidia (NVDA) faces a shareholder lawsuit alleging CEO Jensen Huang’s failure to disclose an affair with a suspected Chinese spy artificially inflated its share price and concealed national security risks; the complaint also raises concerns over Nvidia’s oversight of AI chip destinations and potential circumvention of US export controls. Anthropic (ANT) targets a Nasdaq IPO on 19-20th November despite market volatility, and some investors pushing for a valuation below USD 1.5tln; Anthropic also retracted pricing details showing 867mln shares at USD 70-80 each as inaccurate. Elsewhere, CEO Dario Amodei and JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon plan a Friday livestream to promote the IPO. TSMC (TSM) revenue growth accelerated sharply in October (+60% Y/Y to TWD 586.9bln, vs +51% in Q3); analysts expect 63% revenue growth in Q4. SoftBank (SFTBY) reported a surprise quarterly loss, driven by declining valuations of major technology holdings and Vision Fund losses amid concerns over AI investment spending and demand, which overshadowed stronger revenue growth. Infineon (IFX GY) reported stronger quarterly earnings and improved margins, supported by recovering demand for data centre power supplies, energy infrastructure and electromobility, alongside an upbeat FY outlook and higher proposed dividend, offsetting slightly weaker near-term revenue guidance. COMMUNICATIONS: Vodafone (VOD LN) reported H1 revenue of GBP 21.9bln (exp. 21.5bln), and adj. EBITDAaL of GBP 6.5bln (prev. 5.7bln); raised FY27 adj. EBITDAaL guidance to GBP 13.2-13.4bln (prev. saw 13.0-13.3bln), and adj. FCF view to GBP 2.8-3bln (prev. saw 2.6-2.9bln). It added that Germany remains a concern despite strong overall performance. BT (BT/A LN) has reportedly delayed launching its partnership with SpaceX’s (SPCX) Starlink following controversy over signal failures in Ukraine, FT reports; CEO expressed concerns about investor and public perceptions of the tie-up but indicated BT remains keen to proceed once the controversy subsides. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) shares rose 4.6% in extended US trading after a narrower than expected quarterly loss and unprecedented pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI boosted confidence in its upcoming launch, despite weaker than expected revenue and FY guidance. Skydance (SKD) reported broadly in-line quarterly revenue and outlined substantial cost savings from its Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) acquisition, targeting reductions through eliminating overlapping corporate functions, consolidating streaming and broadcast operations, optimising procurement and cutting marketing expenditure, although elevated debt and anticipated film losses weighed on its near-term outlook. Comcast (CMCSA) plans to cut more than 1K jobs across its connectivity and platforms divisions amid a major restructuring, Bloomberg reports; the company expects a Q4 restructuring charge exceeding USD 1bln. CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Inditex (ITX SM) is backing a financing fund offering low-cost loans to suppliers investing in energy-efficient measures, aimed at reducing the company’s carbon footprint across its supply chain. CONSUMER STAPLES: Henkel (HEN3 GY) reported accelerating organic sales growth across both business units in Q3, supported by positive pricing trends and sustained volume increases, prompting an upgrade to its FY sales growth guidance. Marks & Spencer (MKS LN) outlined ambitious medium-term growth targets, forecasting strong sales expansion alongside faster profit growth, signalling confidence in its earnings outlook. Casino (CO FP) reported declining quarterly revenue, but reaffirmed its outlook, while reaching an agreement in principle on financial restructuring terms and targeting implementation by the end of March. MATERIALS: K+S (SDF GY) reported stronger than expected quarterly revenue (EUR 934mln vs exp. 900mln), and adj. EBITDA (EUR 108mln vs exp. 102mln), while narrowing its FY earnings guidance (sees EUR 700-750mln vs prev. guidance of 680-760mln) amid supply-side constraints. Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) has temporarily suspended production in Ukraine after further attacks on electricity infrastructure, including transmission lines and substations, left power supplies unstable and insufficient to sustain operations; it confirmed that its assets were undamaged, and that it can continue supplying European customers from existing inventory stockpiles. DAY AHEAD: EVENTS: Ukraine-Russia peace talks take place in Abu Dhabi, with US officials reportedly seeing a “real shot” at serious progress towards ending the war. DATA: In North America, US October CPI is seen rising 0.3% M/M; core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.3%); NFIB business optimism (prev. 97.9), weekly ADP employment change (prev. 16.75K) and Q3 household debt (prev. USD 18.8tln) are also due. CENTRAL BANKS: Today’s speakers’ slate is busy, with Fed’s Waller (voter) speaking from London, Fed’s Bowman (voter) speaks on the economic outlook, Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) joins a fireside chat, Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) speaks on the outlook. From the BoE, chief economist Pill, Lombardelli and Breeden will give remarks. From the ECB, chief economist Lane, and Cipollone speak. BoC and Riksbank minutes are released. SUPPLY: US auctions USD 42bln of 10yr. Netherlands sells EUR 2.5-3bln of 2036 DSLs. UK auctions GBP 1bln of 2056 debt. ENERGY: EIA publishes its short-term energy outlook. EARNINGS: Notable corporate earnings due today include: TransDigm (TDG), CoreWeave (CRWV), On Holding (ONON). PREVIEW - US CPI (13:30GMT/08:30EST): The consensus expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% M/M in October (prev. 0.6%), while core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.3%). Note that the BLS will not publish Y/Y CPI figures owing to the October 2025 government shutdown, when the inflation data were not released. Elsewhere, PPI (due Friday) is expected to rise 0.4% M/M (prev. 1.3%), with the annual rate seen rising to 6.6% Y/Y (prev. 6.3%), while core PPI is expected to rise 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.7%). The data will help inform expectations for October PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due on 25th November. Analysts suggest risks to core CPI are skewed to the upside; Bloomberg recently launched a new core price index, which is currently tracking a 0.33% M/M rise in October. However, Pantheon Macroeconomics says the increase is being flattered by a 3.8% jump in lodging prices (contributing 5bps), as well as a 0.9% rise in airline fares (contributing 1bp), components which Pantheon considers unreliable. In terms of the drivers, headline inflation is expected to moderate as gasoline’s contribution fades, while core inflation should be restrained by softer shelter costs, with vacancies at their highest since 2014 limiting rent growth, alongside softer used car prices. However, upside risks remain as the earlier surge in energy prices feeds through to freight, transportation and core goods prices, while subscription services, computers, postage and courier fees have also seen price increases. Regarding monetary policy implications, Barclays forecasts headline CPI rising 0.24% M/M and core CPI increasing 0.22% M/M, which the bank estimates would translate into a 0.21% M/M rise in core PCE in October. Barclays’ baseline remains for the FOMC to hike rates by 25bps in December. Money markets are currently pricing an 85% probability of a December rate hike, up from 64% before the strong October jobs report, though pricing had been closer to 90% before the AI stock rout and Democratic sweep.