유럽장 개장: AAPL, 마진 전망에 하락; NVDA, 파트너들에게 중국 익스포저 제한 지시; BAYN GY, FY26 EBITDA 전망 상향; PHIA NA, 3분기 실적 예상 상회; 연료비로 LHA GY FY26 EBIT 전망 하향; 아람코 순이익 35% 증가; SHEL LN, 노스웨스트셸프 지분 14억5천만 달러에 매각

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities start Tuesday trading on the back foot, with crude futures rebounding amid reports that US-Iran peace negotiations remain far from agreement. Overnight, US equity futures edged lower and the Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory, with APAC stocks also seeing downside as tech shares weakened. Apple (AAPL) shares fell 2.5% in extended US Trading as surging memory chip prices and rising AI-related costs weighed on the outlook for its profit margins, while it also reported weaker than expected services growth guidance overshadowing strong quarterly revenue and an upbeat holiday sales outlook. More recently, reports suggested that Nvidia (NVDA) has instructed its data centre partners to reduce exposure to Chinese customers, according to the FT. The RBA raised its cash rate by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote; it dropped guidance on further hikes, though Governor Bullock retained optionality to move. She also explained that dissenters emphasised downside growth risks, weaker wage pressures and confidence that slower growth would contain inflation expectations. Brent and WTI are rebounding after falling by around 8% on Monday on rising supply and renewed US-Iran diplomatic hopes. Bloomberg writes that Middle Eastern oil markets are signalling near-term oversupply as Dubai crude’s November contract trades around USD 2 below December; Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and Kuwait increased combined exports by 10% to over 15mln BPD in October, approaching pre-war levels. Gold and copper declined as renewed Asian tech stock selling raised concerns about AI-related demand, along with continued geopolitical uncertainty. Overnight, the WSJ reported that the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday amid weeks of undisclosed limited attacks; US officials described the strikes as defensive, including a response to an Iranian missile fired at a US aircraft and commercial shipping. In the European pre-market, Senior Iranian officials reportedly said Iran and the US remain far from reaching a deal to end the war, rejecting Washington’s excessive demands, resulting in crude prices edging further up. Politics is set to dominate today, with US voters casting ballots in midterm elections, testing President Trump’s second term amid cost-of-living concerns and Iran-war fuel prices. Democrats are favoured to win the House, needing just three net seat additions; Senate control remains more uncertain. On the trade front, the UK and EU have agreed a draft deal to remove post-Brexit checks on food and agricultural trade, the BBC reports. The agreement would eliminate export certificates and certain inspection fees, restore trade in restricted products and align UK standards with EU rules. The UK estimates annual economic benefits of GBP 5.1bln. STOCK SPECIFICS: TECH: Apple (AAPL) shares fell 2.5% in extended US Trading as surging memory chip prices and rising AI-related costs impact profit margins, while it also reported weaker than expected services growth guidance overshadowing strong quarterly revenue and an upbeat holiday sales outlook. Nvidia (NVDA) has reportedly instructed its data centre partners to reduce exposure to Chinese customers, according to the FT; Nvidia has instructed cloud computing clients worldwide to ensure at least 51% of their services are sold to companies outside China; the guidance only applies to future contracts. Of note for China AI names, China plans comprehensive AI safety regulations covering data, computing power, algorithms and applications, affecting developers including DeepSeek, Moonshot and Alibaba (BABA). Oracle (ORCL) priced its USD 10bln share offering at USD 116/shr, an 11% discount to Friday’s closing price of USD 130.67. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares fell 4.8% in extended trading, with reports citing elevated investor expectations, and a sharp slowdown in US commercial contract growth, which offset stronger than expected quarterly results, robust AI demand and accelerating free cash flow generation. HEALTHCARE: Bayer (BAYN GY) reported Q3 adj. EBITDA of EUR 1.62bln (exp. 1.42bln), revenue of EUR 10.05bln (exp. 9.98bln); raised its FY26 adj. EBITDA guidance to EUR 9.8-10.3bln (exp. 9.82bln; prev. 9.6-10.1bln), citing stronger Pharmaceuticals performance. Negative free cash flow guidance improved to EUR 0.5-1.5bln (prev. 1.5-2.5bln), while net financial debt guidance fell to EUR 28-29bln. Philips (PHIA NA) reported Q3 adj. EBITA of EUR 569mln (exp. 522mln), and an adj. EBITA margin of 13% (exp. 11.9%), supported by higher sales and cost controls; its Respironics unit reached an agreement in principle with the US DoJ over faulty sleep apnoea devices and ventilators, which resulted in a Q3 provision of EUR 288mln. Fresenius Medical Care (FME GY) reported Q3 adj. EBIT of EUR 545mln (exp. 530.8mln), Q3 revenue of EUR 4.94bln (exp. 4.92bln), Q3 net profit of EUR 160mln (exp. 158mln); US same-market treatments declined 1.1% Y/Y; reaffirmed flat FY2026 revenue guidance, but narrowed its operating income outlook to a mid-single-digit decline through flat growth. INDUSTRIALS: Lufthansa (LHA GY) reported Q3 adj. EBIT +6% Y/Y at EUR 1.4bln (exp. 1.38bln), supported by higher yields and cost management; lowered FY26 adj. EBIT guidance to EUR 1.7-2.0bln (prev. saw up to 2.2bln), citing increased fuel costs; FY26 fuel expenses are expected at EUR 9.3bln, up approximately EUR 2bln Y/Y. MATERIALS: Evonik (EVK GY) reported Q3 adj. EBITDA +40% Y/Y at EUR 629mln (exp. 593.2mln), and revenue +13% Y/Y at EUR 3.83bln (exp. 3.66bln), benefiting from Middle East supply disruptions; maintained its FY26 adj. EBITDA guidance of EUR 2.0-2.2bln, targeting the upper half, raised ROCE guidance above 8% (prev. slightly above 6.1%), and reaffirmed FCF guidance of EUR 850mln. ENERGY: CVR Energy (CVI) is nearing a deal exceeding USD 4bln to acquire refineries from Marathon Petroleum (MPC), with a deal announcement possible on Tuesday, WSJ reports. Saudi Aramco’s Q3 net profit rose 35% Y/Y to USD 36.25bln, and adj. net income reached SAR 117bln (exp. 107.9bln) (+9% Y/Y to USD 31.2bln, in dollar-terms); downstream EBIT more than tripled to over USD 10bln, while FCF of USD 28.2bln covers its USD 21.9bln quarterly dividend. XRG, the energy investment arm of ADNOC, agreed to acquire Shell’s (SHEL LN) stakes in Australia’s North West Shelf LNG project for USD 1.45bln. CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Zalando (ZAL GY) reported Q3 adj. EBIT of EUR 106.5mln (exp. 103.7mln) and revenue of EUR 3.17bln (exp. 3.16bln). GMV rose 7.5% Y/Y to EUR 4.54bln, with B2B revenue up nearly 28%. Zalando reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, expecting GMV and revenue growth in the lower half of 12-17% and adj. EBIT of EUR 680-720mln. Hugo Boss (BOSS GY) reported Q3 EBIT -15% Y/Y at EUR 81mln (vs 95mln Y/Y), Q3 revenue -4% Y/Y at EUR 946mln (exp. 924.5mln). Lowered its FY26 guidance; sees FY26 FX-adjusted Group sales declining by a high-single-digit percentage (prev. saw mid-to-high-single-digit decline), and FY26 EBIT between EUR 250-300mln (prev. saw 300-350mln); downgrade reflects weaker consumer demand assumptions and higher non-cash depreciation and amortisation expenses related to IT assets amid rapid AI and technology developments. Raises FY26 capex outlook to 4-5% of Group sales (prev. saw approximately 4%). DAY AHEAD: EVENTS: US midterm elections; Japan closed for Culture Day. DATA: In North America, US JOLTS job openings (exp. 7.13mln, prev. 7.079mln) and quits (prev. 3.066mln), factory orders (prev. 0.1% M/M) and Q3 household debt (prev. USD 18.8tln). NZ dairy auction results are due. CENTRAL BANKS: BoC Governor Macklem and Deputy Governor Rogers appear before Parliament. SUPPLY: UK auctions GBP 3.25bln of 2037 green gilts; Germany sells EUR 5bln of 2031 Bobl; US 10-20yr Treasury buyback announcement. ENERGY: API weekly energy inventories. EARNINGS: Notable corporate earnings due today include: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Amgen (AMGN), Arista Networks (ANET), Shopify (SHOP), Pfizer (PFE), Eaton Corp. (ETN), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Apollo Global Management (APO), AMETEK (AME), Astera (ALAB), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Waters (WAT), Block (XYZ), AIG (AIG), Yum! Brands (YUM), Sysco (SYY), Prudential (PRU), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Fiserv (FISV), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), DuPont (DD), Leidos (LDOS), Ball (BALL).