뉴스스쿼크 미국 개장 뉴스 데일리 - 2026년 11월 6일

APAC stocks were pressured; KOSPI slumped 6% following hefty losses in Samsung and SK Hynix. However, the tech-sell off has stabilised in early European trade; ASML +3%. The NQ outperforms, with key memory names rebounding; SanDisk +8.2%, Micron +8%. USD is firmer against all G10 peers awaiting the US NFP report. Crude benchmarks slip as markets digest a Qatar Emir-Trump call; Brent Jan’27 -0.5%. Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report (Oct), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Nov), Canadian Jobs Report (Oct), Ivey PMI (Oct). Speakers include Fed's Musalem, Bowman, Daly, BoE's Pill and BoJ's Ueda. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 -1.2% DAX40 -1.9% Stoxx 600 -1.3% FTSE 100 -1.8% ES Dec'26 +0.2% RTY Dec'26 U/C NQ Dec'26 +1.3% YM Dec'26 -0.8% FX DXY +0.5% (102.02) EUR/USD -0.4% (1.1172) USD/JPY +0.4% (158.25) GBP/USD -0.5% (1.3383) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +1 tick Bund Dec'26 +20 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.84% German 10yr Yield 3.23% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -0.7% Brent Jan'27 -0.7% Spot Gold -0.5% LME Copper -0.6% CRYPTO Bitcoin -5% Ethereum -7% As of 10:30GMT / 05:30EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include US Jobs Report (Oct), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Nov), Canadian Jobs Report (Oct), Ivey PMI (Oct). Speakers include Fed's Musalem, Bowman, Daly, BoE's Pill and BoJ's Ueda. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.3%) are in the red, but off worst levels as the AI/tech sell-off stabilises in Europe; ASML (+3%). Major indices are currently lower by between 0.4-1.6%, with the IBEX 35 faring a little better vs peers, whilst the SMI is the laggard. European sectors are entirely in the red. Focus of course is on Tech, which sits towards the top of the pile, as the sector attempts to stabilise in Europe/US. Overnight action saw memory giants SK Hynix (-10.3%) and Samsung (-6.3%) extend lower, which weighed on the KOSPI, which closed with losses of c. 6%. Over in Japan, Kioxia (-8.7%) also traded in the red, bringing its WTD losses to 36.7%. The US session is yet to get underway, but the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) has fallen just shy of 25% this week. As mentioned in yesterday’s piece, losses were sparked in the aftermath of the US Democratic sweep, with traders fearing heightened AI regulation. Nonetheless, the memory environment remains incredibly tight, with several companies noting strong demand into 2029, and LTAs. Further adding to this trend, TrendForce (written 5th Nov), wrote that the tight supply situation will continue into 2027; “overall DRAM bit supply will slow to 24% in 2027”. Balancing the debate is a recent post from Citrini’s Jukan. He recently posted on X, following conversations with veteran investors, that memory LTAs are “meaningless”. The investor opined that once prices fall, customers “gladly forfeit prepayments” and walk away from their agreements. US equity futures are mixed; the ES and NQ attempt to reclaim some of the hefty losses seen on Thursday, which saw the Nasdaq close with losses in excess of 6%. The RTY is essentially flat whilst the YM trades lower; a reversal of the rotation out of tech is seen so far. Aside from what is likely just a bounce from recent losses, the WSJ reported that Anthropic’s ARR topped USD 80bln at the end of October, vs some expectations of mid-70bln. In pre-market trade, NVDA (+3.8%) and SanDisk (+8.2%) both rebound off near-term lows; it remains to be seen whether this is sustained into the open, and throughout the US session. A clear sentiment changer comes in the form of the US NFP report, whereby the US economy is expected to add 65k nonfarm payrolls in October; the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%. FX The dollar is firmer against all of its major peers, with the Antipodeans the clear laggards and the CHF and JPY the most resilient. Focus remains squarely on the US Jobs Report, with non-farm payrolls expected to rise to 65K for October from the prior 29K, and the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2%. DXY currently resides towards the top of a 101.45-102.04 range. EUR has broken beneath Thursday’s 1.1203 base, extending to a 1.1167 trough in the European morning from a 1.1235 peak. The morning’s European data has done little for the single currency, with German Industrial Production beating at 0.7% M/M (exp. 0.0%, prev. 2.0%), the French Trade Balance printing a wider-than-expected deficit of EUR 7.3bln (exp. 5.8bln, prev. 6.0bln), and Spanish Industrial Production at 2.0% Y/Y (prev. 1.3%). Price action is largely driven by the USD. GBP is softer and has also printed fresh lows this morning, in a 1.3385-1.3464 band, while EUR/GBP continues to hold beneath the 0.8350 mark following Thursday’s hawkish BoE hike. BoE Governor Bailey has since said he does not agree that the UK has endemic inflation, while adding that if energy prices remain high there is a chance of another hike. Elsewhere, the Lloyds House Price Index was soft at -0.6% M/M (exp. 0.1%, prev. -0.1%) and -1.2% Y/Y (exp. -0.3%, prev. -0.1%). BoE’s Pill is due later at 12:15 GMT. JPY marginally softer with USDJPY towards the upper end of a 157.26-158.36 range, again a USD story, holding the bulk of its overnight recovery. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara declined to comment on market developments, noting markets are determined by various factors, while GPIF posted a quarterly loss of JPY 5.3tln, its first in six quarters. CHF has held up better than most amid its haven properties and despite a sizeable miss in Swiss Consumer Confidence at -45 (exp. -35, prev. -36). Swiss FX reserves fell to CHF 758.5bln (prev. 770.3bln). Antipodeans lag amid the risk aversion that reverberated from APAC into Europe. The antipodeans are also hit by the losses across metals. FIXED INCOME A modestly firmer start to the final session of a pivotal week for fixed income. USTs bid by a handful of ticks at most, after rallying over the last two sessions given the US midterms and the AI/tech selloff that ultimately followed. Currently, matching the 107-16 WTD peak from Thursday, and back to levels from mid-September. For yields, the week has seen pressure across the curve. The short/medium buckets hit by the energy pullback, paring of global central bank tightening expectations and the near term read across from the stock selloff and associated growth implications, with a deadlocked US government given a Dem. Congress and Rep. President also factoring. Further out, the same points are an influence, in addition to the hints in the QRA toward a move away from the long-end, continuing a global trend. Of course, it is premature to assess the week as a whole, with the October NFP report due in the next few hours; full Newsquawk preview available. Bunds about 20 ticks firmer, with the narrative much the same as that outlined for USTs. Benefitting today from the ongoing modest energy pullback we are seeing globally, and particularly within Europe where Dutch TTF is lower by nearly EUR 3/MWh as it stands. Currently, in the upper half of 123.06-53 parameters. Gilts were initially in-line with peers, but now flat. For the most part, participants have been digesting a BoE that was much more hawkish than expected on face value, and has a clear bias towards further tightening; however, Bailey made very clear that this could be reassessed depending on the Middle East/energy situation. Though, pipeline price pressures mean another hike is likely the base case, with the debate now between a back-to-back in December, or waiting until February’s forecast gathering. Alphabet (GOOG) plans Hong Kong and Singapore USD bonds, IFR reported. Australia sold AUD 800mln 3.25% 2039 AGB: b/c 2.56x (prev. 3.26x), average yield 5.1074% (prev. 4.5113%). Apple (AAPL) targets USD 7.5bln in its seven-parter USD-denominated bond sale, according to a term sheet. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks have pared the week’s rebound, with WTI Dec’26 and Brent Jan’27 slipping, having earlier printed peaks of USD 92.53/bbl and USD 100.83/bbl. Dutch TTF is also well off its highs within a EUR 89.97-94.83/MWh range. The move lower comes as markets digest a phone call between Qatar’s Emir and US President Trump, in which the pair discussed diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region. That followed a morning in which the geopolitical premium had been building. Iran continues to reiterate that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be contingent on the US accepting its seven conditions. Sabereen reported two oil tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, while explosions were reported in Najran in southern Saudi Arabia, with damage attributed to debris from a missile interception. Separately, IRGC Ground Forces commander Karami said Iran’s armed forces are fully prepared to deliver a decisive response to any hostile action, while the FT reported at least four Iranian vessels hovering over subsea cables in the Gulf of Oman. Further, Tasnim, citing an Iranian MP, suggested that Iran's response to any US aggression will include Europe, adding that the response could lead to oil crossing the USD 150 mark. Spot gold remains on track to end the week with its biggest gains since August, though it trades lower on the day in a USD 4,035.92-4,107.00/oz band, having pared some of its earlier downside as the European session got underway, in tandem with DXY rising in early European trade. Traders look ahead to the US jobs report later today (Full Newsquawk preview available). Elsewhere in precious metals, palladium lags while platinum is marginally firmer; some suggest industrial consumers and jewellery fabricators are taking advantage of this week's cheap entry points. Base metals are also softer amidst the broader risk tone. 3M LME copper is lower in a USD 13.64k-13.83k/t range. The red metal has not benefited from the Democratic win, as it removes two key bullish catalysts: the rapid buildout of AI infrastructure and the risk of US import tariffs on the metal. Energy Aspects cuts its forecasts for diesel shipments in November from Chinese state-run refiners to 580k tonnes (prev. 980k tonnes), Bloomberg writes. Chinese official said they are to strengthen ties with overseas oil-producing regions and diversify oil and gas supply sources. Goldman Sachs lowers end-2026 gold price forecast to USD 4,150/oz and end-2027 forecast to USD 4,800/oz. TRADE/TARIFFS China's MOFCOM initiates an anti-dumping investigation into imports of para-aramid filament yarn from the EU. China and the Netherlands held export control talks in Shenzhen on November 5, according to China's Commerce Ministry. US Democrats are targeting President Trump's tariffs on Canada as the first step in a broader effort to roll back his administration's trade policies, WSJ reported. Senator Wyden (D) said there is overwhelming support for repealing the tariffs on Canadian products. US House Democrats are reportedly mulling the future of the select panel on US-China competition, Semafor reports citing sources; focus could now broaden to other foreign actors. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European Retail Sales (Sep YY) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.3%); Retail Sales (Sep MM) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.4%). Spanish Industrial Production (Sep YY) 2.0% (Prev. 1.3%). French Foreign Exchange Reserves (Oct) 360.171B (Prev. 370.203B). French Trade Balance (Sep) -7.3B vs. Exp. -5.8B (Prev. -6.0B); French Exports (Sep) 55.3B (Prev. 54.3B); French Current Account (Sep) -2.70B (Prev. -1.40B); French Imports (Sep) 62.7B (Prev. 60.3B). UK Lloyds House Price Index (Oct YY) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.1%); UK Lloyds House Price Index (Oct MM) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%). German Industrial Production (Sep MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 2.0%). CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Williams (voter) said the US economy has been remarkably resilient amid recent shocks, growth has strengthened. Inflation has been too high for too long. Energy price pressures are showing up in the expected areas. ECB's Lane said inflation needs to be back to target in a year or two. Fiscal policy has been more expansionary than expected this year, but is expected to be less so in the next years. Referencing December, says now is the time to gather information Goldman Sachs expects Fed rate cuts from late 2027 through early 2028. BoE Governor Bailey said "I don't agree we have got endemic inflation", adding that if energy prices remain high, there is a chance of another hike. Private wages at upper end range for inflation target. "If we get no resolution of this problem in the Middle East and energy prices continue to be at the high level we have seen them then I think the probability of us having to increase interest rates at least once more is probably reasonably high". PBoC injected CNY 226bln via overnight reverse repos for a CNY 52bln net drain with the rate at 1.25%. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7168 vs exp. 6.6762 (prev. 6.7156). BoC and Canadian Finance Ministry said Canada’s inflation target will remain 2%, the midpoint of the 1-3% control range, measured as the 12-month rate of change in CPI. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump said he was not on the ballot in the midterm elections and claims Republicans would have won in a landslide if he had been. US President Trump posted that the stock market suffered one of the worst days ever but will be bigger and stronger than ever before. Full Post: "The Stock Market suffered one of the Worst Days in History based on the results of the Election. Such a sad thing to watch! It took so much work to get us to a level that no one has ever seen before, and then this. Your 401(k)s have, therefore, dropped. Remember, it wasn’t Republicans, it was Dumocrats. Do not fear, however, we will soon, one way or the other, be BIGGER AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP". US Secretary of War Hegseth is reportedly not currently being considered for the Tennessee Senate seat, the AP reported. US Secretary of State Rubio, in a NYT interview, denies the report that he is considering stepping down and said that he will stay on till the end of the Trump term. US President Trump said they will do a lot of things over the next couple of weeks; Oval Office to become a national monument. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Afipsky oil refinery caught fire following a drone strike by Ukraine, Sabereen reported. Russia's Defense Ministry said they hit an energy facility in Ukraine's Kiev region and a cargo vessel in the Odessa port, IFX reported. Russia's Defence Ministry said its Air Forces hit an electric substation near Ukraine's Sumy, TASS reported. US Envoy Kushner said the US held productive and substantive discussions with Ukraine, NATO and European partners, covering security guarantees for Ukraine and a broader European security architecture. US President Trump said he met with Russian Envoy Dmitriev and that they are close to settling the Russia-Ukraine war, going to be a big agreement and will involve more than Ukraine and all of Europe. Did not meet with the Ukrainian delegation. US-IRAN US President Trump said Iran is not doing anything without US approval; Need to decide whether to go further or "certify it"; would rather not destroy the rest of Iran if possible, but maybe will have to. Regarding the Russian diesel tanker, said they are looking into the law that forbids it. Iranian lawmaker warns that Iran's response to America will include Europe, Tasnim reported; the response could lead to oil crossing the USD 150 mark. In the event of US-Israeli action, Iran's response will be such that the range of the responding missiles will include Europe, and this will lead to the price of oil crossing the USD 150 mark. The Islamic Republic of Iran is adopting a "strategic response". This means that Iran's response will not be simply proportional to the volume or location of the enemy's attacks, but will be a large-scale, multi-pronged, and strategic response that will be implemented without taking into account geographical considerations. The naval blockade of Iran has occurred hundreds of miles away, but this action is considered a form of war against the country, and at the appropriate time and using prepared weapons, the enemy will be attacked. Two oil tankers are said to be on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Sabereen reported. IRGC adds "Two offending tankers, one in the eastern part of the Strait of Hormuz and the other in the Strait itself, intended to pass through an illegal route; the two ships were stopped and detained in the territorial waters of the Strait of Hormuz.". Iran's IRGC Ground Forces commander Karami said its armed forces are fully prepared to deliver a decisive response to any hostile action, Press TV reported. At least four Iranian vessels have been hovering over subsea cables in the Gulf of Oman, the FT reported citing data from Windward. Comes after Iran warned of disruption to digital infrastructure if the US escalated the conflict. Hezbollah may open an additional front in the event of a confrontation with Iran, Sabereen reported citing Israeli press. Iran's IRGC said that its aerospace forces grounded two more US MQM-170 reconnaissance drones over the southern Qeshm Island, Press TV reported. Iran has sent a new response regarding the nuclear file to the US through mediators, according to Journalist Mallick. Iran's response to Qatar's proposal regarding its nuclear capabilities remains pending, with the next step in negotiations dependent on Tehran's decision, Arabic TV reported citing Al Arabiya sources. The US administration is reviewing plans to resume military operations against Iran, The Hill reported citing sources. US President Trump reportedly met with the national security team before his comments on Iran in the Oval Office, Axios reported. Source added that CENTCOM is finalising preparations to potentially resume major combat operations in Iran, but has not received a new directive. Iraqi foreign minister said that a return of military operations between the US and Iran is likely and is no longer a secret, Al Hadath reported. Qatar Emir held a phone call with US President Trump; discussed diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region. "During the call, they reviewed the strategic relations between the two countries and ways to support and strengthen them. They also discussed the latest regional developments, particularly the diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region". "His Highness emphasized the importance of continuing dialogue and adopting diplomatic means to resolve disputes, prevent further escalation in the region, and ensure freedom of navigation and the security of energy supplies". OTHER Saudi strike on water facilities within Al-Shamaytan, Yemen. The Pakistani army has launched an attack on a border point in Afghanistan, Naya reported. Turkish parliament has ratified the defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, AA reported. CRYPTO Bitcoin is on the backfoot and trades just above the USD 76k mark, with Ethereum also on the backfoot and holding around USD 2.2k. APAC TRADE Asia-Pac stocks were lower across the board, with the ASX 200 helped by the lack of tech names. However, the focus remained on semiconductor names and those that are key to the AI buildout, given the blue wave in the US midterms. The selloff appeared to reflect fears of an AI slowdown following the Democratic sweep in the midterms. ASX 200 printed losses but to a lesser degree, as its composition lacks tech names. Macquarie reported net profit that slightly beat estimates; however, losses were seen following news that the prudential regulator found a breach of the group’s non-bank businesses and will further review Macquarie’s capital settings. Nikkei 225 tracked the broader market lower, with its main tech names opening with double-digit losses (Tokyo Electron -13%, SoftBank -14%, Kioxia -14%). Sony was initially positive after its operating profit beat estimates and it raised its FY guidance, but succumbed to the broader risk tone (-1.3%). Outside of the tech giants, Japan Tobacco tumbled after four of its Russian units were placed under temporary administration. KOSPI was amongst the hardest hit, triggering multiple sidecars as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics dragged the index lower. South Korean finance minister said the government will take necessary measures to prevent the stock market from overreacting and materially deviating from fundamentals. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp followed their Asian peers lower. The PBoC injected CNY 226bln via overnight reverse repos for a CNY 52bln net drain, with the rate at 1.25%. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs said authorities are considering removing the cap on IDR conversion under foreign exchange retention rules. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said markets are determined by various factors and declines to comment on market developments. Japanese parties agree to vote on tax cut and cash benefit bills later on Friday, Kyodo reported. MSCI Chairman said the implementation of South Korea’s regulatory reforms is essential for its developed-market reclassification. Japanese PM Takaichi said proceeds from the BoJ ETF sales reflects Japan's economic growth and should be used to promote further growth and a virtuous economic cycle. Japanese PM Takaichi said market volatility is affecting global markets and is watching developments carefully. Japan's PM Takaichi said the government is considering support payments for over 30% of workers, with eligibility potentially expanded beyond the JPY 3.5mln annual income threshold. Japan approves JPY 10bln reserve fund use for cybersecurity. Taiwan's national fund to activate market stabilisation measures. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Japanese Foreign Bond Investment (Oct/31) 1312.0B (Prev. -81.8B). Japanese Stock Investment by Foreigners (Oct/31) 1129.3B (Prev. 1182.2B). Japanese Overtime Pay (Sep YY) 3.60% (Prev. 4.90%). Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Sep YY) 4.6% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.9%).