유럽 증시 개장: TIT IM, 3분기 실적 예상 상회; ABN NA, FY26 NII 가이던스 상향; ENR GY, 4분기 순이익 및 매출 예상 상회; RWE GY, 순이익 가이던스 범위 상단 근접 전망; EOAN GY, EBITDA 가이던스 재확인; ALC SW, FY26 전망 범위 축소

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have opened on the front-foot. Overnight, APAC stocks were higher as the region shrugged-off a subdued handover from Wall Street, where all major indices were pressured as the USD and Treasury yields gained on hawkish Fed rhetoric and hotter than expected CPI data. The USD gained against APAC currencies. The yen weakened towards its lowest level vs the USD since late September, as stronger than expected US inflation data on Tuesday raised Fed rate hike expectations. Gold fell towards USD 4,000/oz following the US inflation and hawkish Fed commentary, but found dip buyers overnight, and enters European trade around USD 4,050/oz, with some analysts attributing the rebound to technical factors. Following hawkish remarks from Fed’s Waller on Tuesday, in which he flagged a potential 50bps hike in December, overnight, Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) described the latest CPI data as bordering on disturbing, and stressed that all policy options remain available to return inflation to target; Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given elevated inflation, with more aggressive tightening possible if price pressures worsen, adding that policy should stay somewhat restrictive; Fed’s Bowman (voter), who is generally seen as more dovish, warned that persistent inflation pressures mean further progress is needed to return inflation to target; she thinks core PCE likely rose 3.3% in October (vs 3.1% in September), though she added that financial conditions have tightened and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening. Analysts at Goldman Sachs now expect an additional 25bps Fed rate hike in March 2027, following a December increase, citing persistent inflation pressures. The bank revised its outlook after a third consecutive upside inflation surprise, pushing its first expected rate cut to December 2027 (prev. saw September 2027), with further cuts projected for March, June and September 2028. CME data indicates that markets are fully discounting a 25bps hike at the 9th December confab, with c. 10% probability of a larger 50bps move. WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos frames a December Fed hike as virtually certain, with uncertainty centred on its size and whether tightening becomes a prolonged cycle. Timiraos notes Fed Chair Warsh’s preferences remain unclear, while market volatility complicates the Fed’s decisions. Crude futures moved higher after a two-day decline, with Brent above USD 92/bbl and WTI above USD 86/bbl. Brent fell 7% over the previous two sessions amid hopes of US-Iran de-escalation and recovering Gulf exports, however, regional attacks persist and negotiations remain stalled. Qatari PM Al Thani told G7 foreign ministers in Paris that Doha had secured at least two weeks to pursue diplomatic efforts towards a US-Iran agreement, The Jerusalem Post reports citing diplomatic sources. However, he acknowledged significant differences between Washington and Tehran, with several key issues remaining unresolved. In Germany, Final October HICP was at 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 2.8%, prev. 3.3%), with the national CPI print at 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 2.8%, prev. 3.3%). In the UK, NIESR forecasts that UK inflation will remain above the BoE’s 2% target until late 2030, peaking at 4.4% in February 2027 (it prev. forecast 3.8%). The think-tank raised its 2026 growth outlook to 1.6% (prev. saw 1.1%), but expects 1.1% in 2027 and 0.9% in 2028. It sees one BoE rate hike, in February 2027. NOTE: It is Veterans Day in the US; cash bond trading is closed, while equity markets are open as usual. STOCK SPECIFICS: TECH: CoreWeave (CRWV) shares surged 16% in extended US trading following stronger than expected quarterly revenue and profits, alongside upgraded FY guidance and a growing order backlog; the release highlighted robust AI infrastructure demand. Anthropic’s (ANT) bankers are considering raising its IPO valuation to at least USD 1.5tln following strong investor demand, potentially lifting total fundraising above USD 100bln, the FT reports. OpenAI’s Q3 revenue surged 50% Q/Q to approximately USD 10bln, accelerating from 17% growth in Q2, according to The Information; the rebound was driven by stronger demand for newer AI models and enterprise products. OpenAI disclosed the figures to investors while seeking to close a fundraising round at a USD 1.25tln valuation. COMMUNICATIONS: Telecom Italia (TIT IM) Q3 EBITDA after leases EUR 1.05bln (exp. 1.04bln), revenue EUR 3.61bln (exp. 3.60bln); reaffirmed its FY26 outlook, supported by growth in Enterprise and Brazil operations. It noted that Poste Italiane (PST IM) increased its stake to 87%, while shareholders will vote on 17th December on revoking share buyback authorisation. CONSUMER CYCLICALS: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said overall Chinese vehicle sales fell by -9.2% Y/Y in October (prev. -8.4%); domestic passenger vehicle sales are projected to fall below 19mln units in 2026 for the first time since 2014, highlighting weakening domestic demand. Meanwhile, FY vehicle exports are expected to exceed 11mln units. Nissan Motor (7201 JT) cut its FY vehicle sales forecast to 2.97-3.0mln units (prev. 3.15mln) amid weak Chinese demand and intensifying EV competition; Q2 operating profit reached JPY 2.12bln (exp. 49.3bln). H1 China sales fell 15%. Nissan maintained its FY financial outlook, anticipating improved H2 profitability, and plans to unveil a new strategy in February. Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) reported record monthly sales of electric and hybrid vehicles in China, with October deliveries surging 350% Y/Y to over 28K units; it expects growth to continue through year-end and aims to rank among China’s top 10 new energy vehicle brands in 2027. CONSUMER DEFENSIVE: Of note for Nestle (NESN SW), US baby food and formula prices surged 5.1% M/M in October, the largest increase on record, according to Bloomberg; NielsenIQ cited higher ingredient and transportation costs, alongside declining births, as potential drivers of rising formula prices. FINANCIALS: ABN AMRO (ABN NA) Q3 net profit +52% Y/Y at EUR 939mln (vs 617mln Y/Y), supported by higher interest rates and the acquisition of NIBC Bank. NII +15% Y/Y, driven by NIBC’s contribution, growth in customer deposits and stronger financing demand from clearing clients; fee income +7% Y/Y. CEO highlighted positive business momentum entering Q4, and continued progress on the bank’s restructuring programme. Raises FY26 commercial NII guidance to above EUR 6.9bln (prev. saw 6.8bln), while maintaining FY26 operating costs guidance at approximately EUR 5.5bln. INDUSTRIALS: Siemens Energy (ENR GY) reported Q4 net income of EUR 1.26bln (exp. 1.17bln), revenue of EUR 12.8bln (exp. 12.5bln) and orders of EUR 14.82bln (exp. 15.31bln). It proposed an FY26 dividend of EUR 2.30/shr (prev. 0.70/shr) and additional EUR 9bln buybacks through FY30. It targets FY27 profit margins before special items of 14-16% and FY30 margins of 20-22%. Vestas (VWS DC) Q3 revenue EUR 5.7bln (exp. 6.06bln), adj. EBIT of EUR 483mln (exp. 526mln); turbine orders fell 27% by volume, driven by weaker US onshore demand. FY26 revenue guidance was narrowed to EUR 20.5-21.5bln (prev. saw 20-22bln), while adj. EBIT margin guidance was tightened to 7.5-8.5% (prev. saw 7-9%). MATERIALS: Rio Tinto (RIO LN) is laying off dozens of workers at its Nemaska Lithium unit in Quebec as the company seeks a profitable path forward amid market instability, The Globe and Mail reports. Brenntag (BRN GY) Q3 sales EUR 4.26bln (exp. 4.08bln), operating gross profit rose to EUR 1.06bln; FY EBITDA is seen at the upper end of its EUR 1.35–1.45bln guidance range. ENERGY: Orlen (PKN PW) terminated its QatarEnergy LNG contract, worth around EUR 570mln this year, after war-related disruptions; still retains another QatarEnergy deal, and is securing alternative US supplies. The UK CMA has raised concerns that the proposed AkzoNobel (AKZA NA)-Axalta (AXTA) merger could substantially lessen competition in UK markets; the CMA said the transaction will face an in-depth Phase 2 investigation unless the companies offer acceptable undertakings to address its competition concerns. UTILITIES: RWE (RWE GY) reported 9-month adj. EBITDA at EUR 4.58bln (prev. 3.48bln Y/Y), adj. net income of EUR 1.85bln (prev. 1.29bln Y/Y); expects FY26 adj. net income towards the upper end of its EUR 1.95-2.45bln guidance range. Separately, RWE and KKR (KKR) completed a 50/50 JV for the 2.8GW Vanguard East and West projects, representing a GBP 12bln investment. E.ON (EOAN GY) reported 9-month revenue of EUR 55bln (prev. 57.5bln Y/Y), and adj. EBITDA of EUR 7.1bln (prev. 7.38bln Y/Y); reaffirmed its FY26 adj. EBITDA guidance of between EUR 9.4-9.6bln (exp. 9.33bln), and expects approximately EUR 7bln in network investments during FY26. HEALTHCARE: Alcon (ALC SW) Q3 net sales USD 2.71bln (prev. 2.58bln), operating margin 14% (prev. 12.8%); it now expects FY26 net sales growth of 6% (prev. saw 5-7%), and narrowed its guidance ranges for core operating margin and core diluted EPS as well. DAY AHEAD: EVENTS: US bond market closed for Veterans Day and Canadian bond market closed for Remembrance Day; equities open as usual in both. DATA: In North America, weekly US MBA mortgage applications are due (prev. -1.2%). CENTRAL BANKS: ECB President Lagarde joins a panel at the Paris Peace Forum; ECB’s Cipollone attends a digital Euro roundtable; Norges Bank publishes its H2 Financial Stability report. SUPPLY: Germany auctions EUR 2.5bln of 2047 and 2056 debt. ENERGY: OPEC releases its monthly oil market report. EARNINGS: Notable earnings reports due today include: Vylor (VYLR).