프리뷰 - 오늘의 연준 발언: 월러, 로건, 슈미드, 보먼, 폴슨

09:00GMT/04:00EST: Fed’s Waller (voter) will give remarks on the economic outlook at a BoE conference. Speaking in early October, before the FOMC meeting, Waller said rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, though there’s “flexibility” on pace, and hikes don’t need to come at consecutive meetings. Elsewhere, he said that rising long-term US Treasury yields are helping curb demand in rate-sensitive sectors like housing and autos, doing some of the work of tighter monetary policy. He added that the AI infrastructure buildout is also pushing up prices via demand for semiconductors. On Fed independence, Waller said “there is a threat to Fed independence” from the administration, though “it hasn’t succeeded”. Watch the event live here. 15:50GMT/10:50EST: Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) will deliver opening remarks at an energy conference. Speaking after the October FOMC meeting, Logan said the Fed needs to implement at least two more 25bps rate hikes given the current outlook, after which it would make sense to pause and assess. She argued that without policy restraint, inflation will keep trending above target, barring any shocks. Logan supported the October decision to hold rates, however, despite her previous hawkish dissent in July, noting that she favours gradual policy adjustments. 18:30GMT/13:30EST: Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) will participate in a fireside chat. Speaking in late September, Schmid said that as the AI boom unfolds, it’s important for the Fed to understand whether the network of firms and contracts developing in the industry is becoming a “too-big-to-fail” ecosystem, similar to the systemic risks that forced bailouts during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and added that he worries about understanding what’s inside and whether anything is systemic. Speaking in July, Schmid said that inflation was his biggest worry, calling it “too hot” and above target for too long, cautioning that June’s better-than-expected data shouldn’t yet be seen as the start of a trend. He said pressures extend beyond energy to a broad basket of goods and services, with demand, not just supply, almost always a factor. 20:30GMT/15:30EST: Fed’s Bowman (voter) will give remarks on the economic outlook at an event on international economics. Speaking in mid-October, before the October FOMC confab, Bowman said inflation remains above the Fed’s goal, but there was no urgency to act, with time to wait and see how financial conditions evolve after September’s hike. She called for addressing problems with post-2008 financial crisis regulations and a “complete reorganisation” of Fed supervision following a review of SVB’s 2023 collapse. 23:30GMT/18:30EST: Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) will speak on the economic outlook. Speaking in late September, Paulson said that underlying inflation was running at 2.5-3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target, with the AI buildout a key driver through demand for chips and construction materials. She noted that import prices for computers and accessories have risen 24% over the past year. She supported a 25bps rate rise at the September meeting, and said that modest further tightening remains possible.