뉴스스콰크 미국 개장 뉴스 - 2026년 11월 5일

US President Trump said it was "largely true" that Republicans lost the midterms because of the Iran war, while he said he is not replacing War Secretary Hegseth. European bourses build on recent advances; AI/memory sell off continues, with NQ -0.5% underperforming. DXY pares some post-midterm losses; Cable fails to sustain 1.3500 ahead of the BoE. Crude steadies after Wednesday's slump; spot gold extends post-midterm rally. Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/31), BoE, CNB & Banxico Policy Announcements, Canadian Federal Budget. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lane, Lagarde, BoC's Macklem, Fed's Hammack & Barkin. Earnings from ConocoPhillips. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% DAX40 +0.3% Stoxx 600 +0.4% FTSE 100 +0.6% ES Dec'26 +0.1% RTY Dec'26 +0.4% NQ Dec'26 -0.5% YM Dec'26 +0.3% FX DXY U/C (101.50) EUR/USD 0.1% (1.1234) USD/JPY U/C (158.34) GBP/USD U/C (1.3464) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +1+ ticks Bund Dec'26 +16 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.88% German 10yr Yield 3.27% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +0.7% Brent Jan'27 +1.8% Spot Gold +1.4% LME Copper +0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin +2.4% Ethereum +3.8% As of 10:40GMT / 05:40 EST LOOKING AHEAD Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/31), BoE, CNB & Banxico Policy Announcements, Canadian Federal Budget. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lane & Lagarde, BoC's Macklem, Fed's Hammack & Barkin. Earnings from ConocoPhillips. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European equities (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are entirely in the green, continuing to build on the strength seen in the prior session. Gains across major indices vary between 0.2-1.2%; the FTSE MIB lags vs peers, whilst the CAC 40 outperforms. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Basic Resources benefit from the risk tone, and underlying strength in metals prices whilst Energy lags given the recent sell off in oil. Key movers: Evotec (+6.9%, Q3 rev. falls but moves forward with restructuring), ArcelorMittal (+4.9%, tops Q3 estimates), Diageo (+3.0%, organic sales beat and holds guidance), Rheinmetall (-16.3%, cuts 2026 sales outlook and order delays), Deutsche Telekom (-2.1%, decent results and announces share buyback), Commerzbank (-1.9%, rev. missed expectations). Hefty selling across major tech/memory names overnight, saw the KOSPI close with losses in excess of 5%. Heavy constituents such as SK Hynix (-5%) and Samsung (-7.5%) fell, with the pair hit in catch-up play to action seen stateside, amidst growing woes of increased AI regulation following the Democratic sweep; Japan’s Kioxia slumped c. 13%. And whilst the recent sell-off can be attributed to the US midterms, it comes despite a slew of positive demand-related comments from several memory firms; Kioxia recently mentioned that clients are negotiating contracts extending into 2029, whilst Samsung expects tight supply through 2027 and 2028. US equity futures are mixed, with underperformance in the NQ (-0.5%), as the AI/memory sell-off continues into today. ARM Holdings (-3.2%): Reported weaker than expected royalty revenue, partly pressured by memory-related smartphone market weakness, and only modestly upbeat quarterly guidance. Qualcomm (-9.2%): Reported weaker than expected smartphone chip sales, driven by sluggish handset demand, rising memory costs and declining Apple-related revenue, alongside disappointing margin and earnings guidance. FX DXY is flat within a 101.20-101.47 range, having pared its overnight post-midterm losses. Modest upside was seen in early European trade as T-note futures waned slightly from their best levels, while crude rose more than USD 1/bbl in the space of 15 minutes this morning despite a lack of headlines. The index sits above its 50DMA at 101.02, but remains beneath its 21DMA at 101.96. EUR/USD is flat/firmer within a 1.1223-1.1268 range. German Factory Orders came in slightly below expectations at 4.4% M/M (exp. 4.8%), while French Industrial Production unexpectedly contracted 0.5% M/M (exp. +0.3%). No reaction was seen to the data with the USD the main driver of the day. GBP/USD is flat/subdued within a 1.3459-1.3501 range, having failed to sustain a move above 1.3500 ahead of the BoE, where a 25bps hike to 4.00% is expected, with the vote split on watch as always (full Newsquawk preview available). The pair holds above its 50, 100 and 200 DMAs (1.3364, 1.3390 and 1.3420). Yesterday's high printed at 1.3503. UK Construction PMI disappointed at 43.6 (exp. 46.1). EUR/GBP trades within a 0.8327-0.8349 range, beneath its 21DMA at 0.8393. USD/JPY is lower within a 157.78-158.43 range, with the yen getting mild tailwinds from lower oil prices. The pair is capped by its 200DMA at 158.63. Japanese PM Takaichi said she will continue to cooperate with Trump to strengthen US-Japan ties. Antipodeans are mixed: NZD/USD outperforms within a 0.5615-0.5658 range, around its 21DMA at 0.5638, while AUD/USD is little changed within a 0.7000-0.7025 range, despite a much wider-than-expected Australian trade surplus. NOK saw little reaction as Norges Bank held at 4.50%, as expected, reiterating that "it will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed". SEK saw modest pressure after Swedish CPIF came in cooler at 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.4%). FIXED INCOME A bullish session for fixed income, as the energy pull back and the AI/tech sell off lead to a reassessment of inflation and growth views for the near term, and by extension are causing market pricing for interest rates to pare. This is perhaps most evident in the UK, with Gilts higher by some 66 ticks at best, hitting 87.35 with the 10yr yield now at its lowest since early-September and just under 5.1%, vs a 5.53% recent peak. Action that is slightly less pronounced at the short-end, given the long-end has also benefited from the DMO pivoting further away from that area of the curve and the general global shift on that as well; for example, the 20yr yield is at its lowest since early-July, and some 50bps off the 6% October peak. For the UK, today’s main event is the BoE. The first hike of the Middle East cycle is expected, though likely subject to 7-2 dissent but with 6-3 a possibility and Breeden the one to watch for that. Further, while tightening today, the hike may have a dovish feel vs market pricing now of c. 75bps of tightening, against the recent +100bps peak, given the WTD energy moves and the pushback Governor Bailey has previously given to pricing, and as even the hawks (e.g. Pill) have described it as excessive. Elsewhere, USTs are bid by a couple of ticks, but off the 107-07 overnight peak. Focus for the US is on today’s data, Friday’s payrolls and then developments around/during the weekend in the Middle East. Updates on that a little light in recent trade, as the midterms continue to be digested; but, pressure around War Secretary Hegseth remains. Bunds also bid, with the themes very much the same. No move to ECB’s Schnabel this morning, with her speech looking back on her time at the ECB, as December is her final meeting. Currently, above 123.00 with gains of 30 ticks, but around 10 off the session high. Supply features, and the French outing is in focus as an appetite test after the recent sovereign adjustments, and into a weekend of more planned domestic protests. Currently, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is around 148bps, and a touch narrower on the session. South Korea is planning a "large scale" acquisition of US Treasuries, Korea Economic Daily reported citing sources. Spain sold EUR 5.466bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.10% 2031, 3.40% 2036, 3.50% 2041 Bono. Japan sold JPY 1.97tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.21x (prev. 3.76x), average yield 2.768% (prev. 3.101%). Meta Platforms (META) files pricing term sheet for up to EUR 9bln senior notes in six tranches. Microsoft (MSFT) raises USD 25bln in a 10-tranche bond offering. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks are steadier after Wednesday's slump of more than 8%, which came as the Democratic sweep reduced the likelihood of an extended US/Iran war. Prices rose over USD 1/bbl for Brent in early European trade despite a lack of fresh headline catalysts. Since then, UKMTO reported a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles 50NM north of Qatar's Madinat ash Shamal late yesterday. On diplomacy, Iran's Foreign Minister and the Sultanate of Oman discussed regional developments and political efforts to achieve peace and stability in the region in a telephone call. Note, there is a wider spread between WTI Dec and Brent Jan quotes, potentially as US crude production hit a new record of 14mln bpd in yesterday's EIA data. WTI Dec'26 trades firmer within a USD 86.65-88.54/bbl range, while Brent Jan'27 is also stronger within USD 93.44-95.91/bbl. Dutch TTF is slightly lower but well off worst levels, tracking the price action in crude oil counterparts. Spot gold extends its post-midterm rally above USD 4,100/oz, within a USD 4,057.84-4,146.99/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 3,919.93-4,070.53/oz range), amid softer yields and the weaker overnight dollar and potentially some geopolitical hedging. It has reclaimed its 21DMA at USD 4,078/oz, with the 50 and 100DMAs (USD 4,206/oz and USD 4,203/oz) the next upside levels. Spot silver is firmer within a USD 52.21-53.48/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 48.97-52.46/oz range), while platinum and palladium futures are also higher. 3M LME copper is firmer within a USD 13,940.08-14,136.18/t range, with demand subdued alongside the mixed risk appetite in Asia, potentially as the AI/memory sell-off continued after the Democratic sweep. The KOSPI closed more than 5% lower, with Samsung and SK Hynix hit. TRADE/TARIFFS Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said she will continue to cooperate with US President Trump to strengthen US-Japan ties. China's MOFCOM to maintain anti-dumping duties on US-origin n-propanol imports for five years from November 6th. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said at CIIE that China's overall tariff has been reduced to 7.3% and that China will import more fine products and services. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES Numerous reports of bomb threats on planes across Europe across the European morning, resulting in several diversions and landings, no confirmed bombs/devices on any craft as things stand. German Chamber of Commerce forecasts German GDP growth of 1% in 2026 (prev. saw 0.3%), and expects 1% growth in 2027. UK Chancellor Healey pledged to overhaul public spending controls and vowed that new rules to ringfence “preventative” programmes would save money in the future, according to FT. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European PPI (Sep YY) 11.1% vs. Exp. 10.9% (Prev. 8.3%); European PPI (Sep MM) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.0%). European S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 42.5 (Prev. 43.4). UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 43.6 vs. Exp. 46.1 (Prev. 46.1). Italian Retail Sales (Sep YY) 1.6% (Prev. 0.5%); Italian Retail Sales (Sep MM) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%). Italian S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 47.3 (Prev. 46.5). French S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 38.8 (Prev. 39.8). French Industrial Production (Sep MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.4%). German S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 41.6 (Prev. 43.5). German Factory Orders (Sep MM) 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. -10.6%). Swedish CPIF Prel (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%); Swedish CPIF Prel (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.5%). Swedish CPI Prel (Oct MM) 0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%); Swedish CPI Prel (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.1%). CENTRAL BANKS White House delays hearing on Fed Governor Cook to December 14th, according to New York Times. BoJ September meeting Minutes stated members agreed it was appropriate that the bank continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation. ECB's Moulin said elevated yields present a fresh challenge for the financial sector. ECB's Schnabel summarises her history at the ECB. Takeaway one: preserve room for manoeuvre by avoiding commitments. Takeaway two: what matters is how shocks affect the inflation outlook. Takeaway three: protect monetary dominance. Takeaway four: implement monetary policy efficiently. RBA's Hauser said some people's confidence in policy delivery, particularly on inflation, has fallen; adds that monetary policy works with lag, pain often precedes gain. Last meeting had a lively discussion. Norges Bank maintains its Key Policy Rate at 4.50%, as expected; " It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed". SNB Chairman Schlegel said the central bank would intervene if price stability were at risk; there have not yet been any significant second-round effects. SNB Chairman Schlegel said inflation in Switzerland has risen and October reading was higher than expected, with the central bank to watch the situation closely, particularly for second round inflationary effects. BCB holds rates at 13.75% as expected; decision unanimous. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7156 vs exp. 6.6783 (prev. 6.7180). NOTABLE US HEADLINES South Korea's Finance Minister said to closely monitor changes in US policies on AI and tariffs, as well as Middle East conflict after the midterm elections, while they will be prepared for the possibility of increased market volatility. Japan said that US midterm election results will not affect the strength of the bilateral alliance, according to Kyodo. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russian President Putin may hold international talks today; Peskov adds diesel shipped under a deal with the US will find buyers, TASS reported. Ukraine confirmed a strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery. Russia strikes logistics centre in Ukraine's Kharkiv region and a power plant in Dnipropetrovsk region, according to the Russian Defence Ministry. Explosion reported in oil refinery in Russia's Ryazan after it was attacked by Ukrainian drones, according to IRIB. Multiple Ukrainian drone attacks target industrial zone of Russia's Ryazan oil refinery. US-IRAN Iran and Oman Foreign Ministers discussed arrangements to secure sea routes. Iran's IRGC Ground Forces Commander declares a full readiness to respond decisively to any hostile action, Sepah News reported. Iran Foreign Minister and the Sultanate of Oman discuss regional developments and political efforts to achieve peace and stability in the region in a telephone call, Al Alam reported. UKMTO reported a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles 50NM north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, on November 4 at 23:20 UTC. IRGC announced that two oil tankers suffered fires after hitting mines last night as they attempted to pass through the 'illegal' passage south of the Strait of Hormuz. A tugboat that approached the supertanker to fight the fire also caught fire. It seized two drones after intercepting them. Affirms that it maintains control of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. OTHERS Israel conducts artillery shelling on areas in southern Lebanon, according to SNN. Top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee called for probes into the Iran war and US military strikes in the Caribbean and Latin America, according to WSJ. Yemeni armed forces announced a series of successful military operations against Saudi military targets, causing significant damage, according to Press TV. Yemeni missile attacks reportedly target Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, Fars News reported citing Arab sources. Saudi Civil Defense noted an early warning activated in Sharurah. Israeli forces reportedly raid Nablus in the West Bank, according to Al Alam. North Korea said the EU should mind its own business instead of criticising North Korea human rights issues, according to KCNA. South Korea's Defence Ministry reported suspected multiple missile launches by North Korea. South Korea's Cheonghae Navy unit will expand operations into sea near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Yonhap. North Korea test-fired a newly designed advanced air-defence missile system, KCNA reported. CRYPTO South Korea plans to delay the introduction of digital asset taxes by two years to 2029, according to the Finance Ministry. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the rally on Wall Street as yields declined and oil slumped in the aftermath of the blue tsunami in the US Midterms, while a rotation out of chip stocks was evident overnight. ASX 200 rallied as gains were led by strength in mining and tech, with gold miners boosted by the surge in the precious metal to above USD 4,100/oz, while energy and financials were at the other end of the spectrum following a slump in oil prices and a drop in NAB's FY profit. Nikkei 225 wiped out its opening gains and more, amid weakness in electronics and tech stocks, while the drop in oil prices ultimately failed to provide a cushion despite Japan's heavy reliance on oil imports. KOSPI underperformed with a sidecar triggered amid a rotation out of semiconductor stocks after the blue wave in the US Congress raised concerns over the AI buildout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the mainland was constrained, while the Hong Kong benchmark surged as hyperscalers and ecommerce stocks benefited from the rotations out of semis. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with North Korean delegation in Beijing, while he stated China is ready to advance deeper, practical and positive development of China-North Korea ties and seeks deeper and more constructive relations with North Korea. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Australian Trade Balance (Sep) 2.826B vs. Exp. 0.8B (Prev. 0.495B); Australian Exports (Sep MM) 2.3% (Prev. 3.7%); Australian Imports (Sep MM) -3.3% (Prev. 5.8%). Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Oct) 52.10 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.30); Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Final (Oct) 51.7 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 51.3). NOTABLE APAC EQUITY HEADLINES Foxconn (2317 TT) Oct (TWD): Revenue 1.31tln (+45% Y/Y). Sony (6758 JT) H1 2026 (JPY): Operating profit 1.10tln (prev. 768.93bln Y/Y), Revenue 6.27tln (prev. 5.73tln Y/Y); sees FY operating profit at 1.87tln (prev. guidance 1.72tln). Nintendo (7974 JT) Q2 2026 (JPY): Operating Income 73.9bln (exp. 88.1bln). Total Unit Sales. Switch 2, hardware: 26.35mln. Switch 2, software: 73.21mln. Toyota (7203 JT) H1 (JPY) net 2.24tln (prev. 1.77tln Y/Y), rev. 26.96tln (prev. 24.63tln Y/Y), raises FY net forecast to JPY 3.57tln from 3.25tln, but cuts FY rev. forecast to 53.5tln from 54.0tln, raises share buyback to JPY 1.3tln. Toyota sees FY global auto sales 10.99mln units vs. prev. forecast of 11.18mln. Will set up a robotics department under Takefumi Shiga.