Newsquawk 미국 개장 뉴스 일일 브리핑 - 2026년 11월 11일

Qatar says it has secured "at least two weeks" for diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, though significant differences remain. Iran's Rezaei said that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of "distant" US military bases as well, Al Mayadeen reports. Added that they will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran. Brent Jan’27 +1.9%. European bourses are broadly firmer; NQ outperforms, with renewed optimism in the tech sector following strong CoreWeave results. DXY is firmer building on recent advances; CHF underperforms a touch. Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese PPI (Oct), OPEC MOMR. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% DAX40 +0.4% Stoxx 600 +0.3% FTSE 100 +0.3% ES Dec'26 +0.7% RTY Dec'26 +0.4% NQ Dec'26 +1.6% YM Dec'26 +0.1% FX DXY +0.3% (102.48) EUR/USD -0.2% (1.1136) USD/JPY +0.1% (158.94) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3325) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -6 ticks Bund Dec'26 -4 ticks US 10yr Yield Closed German 10yr Yield 3.30% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +1.1% Brent Jan'27 +1.9% Spot Gold +0.4% LME Copper +1% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1% Ethereum -2% As of 10:35GMT / 05:35EST LOOKING AHEAD Holiday: US Veterans Day; Canadian Remembrance Day. Highlights include Japanese PPI (Oct), OPEC MOMR. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are entirely in the green, building on the prior day’s advances. Sentiment remains firmer after trilateral talks between US-Russia-Ukraine, and with mediation efforts between US-Iran also helping. However, benchmarks are off best levels after Iran's Secretary of Supreme National Security Council warned that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of "distant" US military bases as well. He added that they will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Tech is the clear outperformer, taking lead from strong performance in the AI/tech space overnight, following on from strong CoreWeave earnings (detailed below). The KOSPI closed with gains of 2.6%, with SK Hynix (+5.3%) and Samsung Electronics (+3.6%) both moving off recent lows. Elsewhere, Basic Resources and Energy complete the top three. To the downside resides Food Beverage & Tobacco, albeit losses are only modest. Key Movers: Alcon (-5.6%, decent results but tightened 2026 outlook), Brenntag (-3.4%, Q3 EBITDA missed consensus), Siemens Energy (+8.4%, Net, Revenue & Profit beat, Orders miss. Increasing buyback and dividend), RWE (+0.8%, adj. EBITDA and Net Income higher Y/Y. FY Net Income seen at the upper end of the range). US equity futures are broadly firmer this morning, with outperformance in the NQ after CoreWeave brings some optimism back to the tech sector. CoreWeave (CRWV) shares +11% pre-market following stronger than expected quarterly revenue and profits, alongside upgraded FY guidance and a growing order backlog; the release highlighted robust AI infrastructure demand. FX Snapshot: G10s are mostly lower against the USD. The Aussie fares a bit better vs peers. The Swiss Franc is the laggard today, potentially thanks to the positive risk tone, but this narrative has not been seen in the JPY. DXY is slightly firmer this morning and currently holds towards the upper end of a 102.26-102.51 range. Initial action saw the index take a breather from the hefty gains seen in the prior session following hawkish Fed speak and a hotter-than-expected US CPI report. However, the strength has since returned; DXY now trades above the peaks made in the prior session (102.41); a firm breach above 102.50 will see the index head towards the 14 Oct high at 102.94. US-specific newsflow will likely be light for today, with the region observing Veterans Day (only US bond cash trade is shut). Focus therefore will be on the geopolitical situation, on both the Ukraine-Russia and Iran-US fronts. For the former, trilateral talks have concluded, with updates expected in the coming few days as to whether any progress has been made. The US-Iran situation is a little more complicated as mediation efforts continue, but US/Iranian officials appear to be pushing back on reports of potential concessions. Any progress will be USD-negative, and could see the index return back towards its 21-DMA at 101.94. Elsewhere, EUR/USD is under modest selling pressure, and largely moving at the whim of the USD. It currently holds within a 1.1139 to 1.1170 range, and towards the lows seen last week. ECB speak today came via Nagel, who spoke solely on the German situation; he mentioned that the German recovery was stronger than forecast, adding that growth is likely to accelerate in Q4. Focus ahead will be on ECB President Lagarde. Attention remains on USD/JPY, with the pair sitting just under the 159.00 mark; the high for the day (158.98) near-enough coincides with its 100-DMA. The latest US CPI saw the pair jump to elevated levels, amidst widening yield differentials; it won’t be a surprise to see some jawboning from Japanese officials in the near-term. Overnight, PM Takaichi offered some confidence building remarks by suggesting that she will not pursue fiscal policies that will lead to excessive inflation. SNB's Schlegel says that they are ready to be active in FX markets. FIXED INCOME A contained start for fixed income, rebounding slightly from Tuesday’s bearish action on US CPI and Fed speak, but with upside this morning capped as energy has an upward bias and as conditions are relatively light on account of it being Veterans Day. Nonetheless, USTs are lower by a handful of ticks, in 106-00 to 106-06 confines, and as such a full point off the pre-Waller opening levels on Tuesday. Fed speak since has largely been on the hawkish side of things, with the unsurprising exception of Bowman, but not to the same 50bps extent as Waller suggested. PPI on Friday before PCE later in the month are the main scheduled points to watch for indications on the December decision. But a hike is seemingly cemented and while there is at most about a 10% implied probability for a 50bps move, that scenario is very much an outlier. Bunds pared initial upside following hawkish rhetoric from an Iranian official, which spurred some strength in the energy complex. (See geopolitical section for details). Bunds currently hold within a 122.46 to 122.80 range. The European docket is light. No move earlier to final German CPI which was unrevised. Gilts opened on the front foot, again, unwinding some of the pressure on Tuesday. However, as with EGBs, UK paper succumbed to energy-led selling pressure. Specifics are light, domestic focus on the PM’s 10yr plan and the suggestion it may underwhelm expectations from within the Labour party itself. China is set to issue up to USD 2bln of dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong. Australia sold AUD 1bln in 5.00% May 2038 bonds, average yield 5.0982%, and a bid to cover 3.10. UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.94x (prev. 3.76x), average yield 4.185% (prev. 4.272%) Germany sells EUR 1.931bln vs exp. EUR 2.5bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bunds. COMMODITIES Initially, crude was firmer, but only modestly so. Focus on Qatar saying it has secured "at least two weeks" for diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, though significant differences remain. Further, there was pushback from Iranian officials on this, saying claims of US negotiations and a Qatar meeting are false. At first, this kept crude around USD 92.00/bbl for Brent Jan’27, bid but well within and at the lower-end of ranges from the last two weeks, when a near USD 115/bbl peak printed. Thereafter, in a belated reaction to commentary from Iran’s Rezaei that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases and that they won’t be removing any enriched material, further strength was seen. This helped Brent to form a fresh peak, before then moving higher once again following reports that two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Jan'27 currently sits at highs of USD 93.51/bbl. Ahead, we now await any signs of progress, or not, from the Qatari side, ahead of the potential meeting including Iranian officials and US VP Vance next week. Note, Treasury Secretary Bessent was relocated after Iranian threats, and while there has been no suggestion of this thus far, it is plausible that such threats could derail the Vance visit. Dutch TTF was leading the space before the latest Middle East reporting, and continues to do so. Currently, holding at EUR 87/MWh. Potentially driven by the lack of significant progress on the Russia-Ukraine front. Russia’s Kremlin has described EU relations as non-existent, with no intention to communicate with the bloc in Abu Dhabi. Points that, alongside some European forecasts turning colder for next week, have supported European gas. XAU is recovering from its CPI/Waller/Fed induced pressure on Tuesday. However, the yellow metal is struggling to make much upside amid the strong risk tone and USD strength. Holding around USD 4050/oz, and some USD 100/oz shy of levels earlier in the week. Base peers are bid, following the risk tone higher, though the recent USD move is potentially capping somewhat. 3M LME Copper firmer by near 1% on the day. Norway's Gassco reported unplanned outage of 5.1 mcm/day at Troll field on November 11th-12th. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.8mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline +2.7mln, Distillate -8.0mln, Cushing +5.1mln. TRADE/TARIFFS US Ambassador to China Perdue said NVIDIA (NVDA) affair shows that US should stay diligent on China, adds China said it's to firmly safeguard multilateral trading system, and will uphold most favoured nation treatment. China's licensing regime for magnets is hugely escalatory. US is not getting the flow of magnets that it wants from China. US and China militaries are beginning to talk again. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet next week in Shenzhen and then again in Miami, while he repeated call for rebalancing bilateral economic ties and he plans to join Trump for the trip to Shenzhen. Setting up a direct China channel for AI incident alerts and expects talks with China on handling AI models pre-release. US aim is to de-risk, not decouple from China. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES A widening divide has opened in Eurozone sovereign bond markets between highly indebted countries like France and Belgium and safer borrowers like Germany, according to FT. NIESR sees UK inflation to overshoot the Bank of England target for the next four years. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP Italian Industrial Production (Sep YY) -0.1% (Prev. 0.2%); Italian Industrial Production (Sep MM) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -1.2%). Swedish Household Consumption (Oct YY) 3.3% (Prev. 3.5%); Swedish Household Consumption (Oct MM) 1.20% (Prev. 1.10%). German CPI Final (Oct MM) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%); German CPI Final (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.3%). German HICP Final (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.3%); German HICP Final (Oct MM) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.6%). CENTRAL BANKS Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver 25bps rate hikes in December and in March vs prior forecast of a hike in December this year. Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on PBS NewsHour that CPI was bordering on disturbing and they have real issues on their hands, adds they are going to have to deal with that. Most troubling is that services inflation is not coming down. Inflation is both cost-side and demand-side driven. His fear is starting to see overall overheating prices of a whole bunch of things. At the same time, job market is steady and stable. Will have to come to terms with it if inflation stays persistent and it's a major concern if inflation gets built into expectations. Everything is always on the table and we must get inflation down to the target. Fed's Paulson (2026 voter) said Fed will move more aggressively if inflation landscape worsens, adds further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation and exact path of rate policy depends on how the economy evolves. Monetary policy needs to be somewhat restrictive. Gradual rate hikes have also given Fed officials space to gauge the impact and have given the economy time to adjust. CPI data showed inflation remains a problem. Supported Fed's recent rate decisions. Underlying inflation is stuck between 2.5% and 3%. Fed has more work to do to lower inflation. The economy is stronger than expected and job market robust and stable. AI and energy impact on inflation are hard to gauge. Risks to the inflation outlook are high. Fed's Bowman (voter) said the fact that inflation is not on a downward trend should give us pause, adds need to think about what pace and what timeline to address it. The Fed cut rates gradually last year and then paused before resuming, in same way that the Fed may work to address inflation in coming months. Inflation expectations an important data point, but not necessarily controlling how she thinks about things. Inflation expectations very well anchored. Shifting her focus to inflation. Would need to see AI and Middle East risks abate before could be confident inflation will come down next year. ECB's Nagel said German recovery stronger than forecast, adding that growth is likely to accelerate in Q4. PBoC injected CNY 187bln via overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7191 vs exp. 6.6855 (prev. 6.7167). NOTABLE US HEADLINES US judge said President Trump's defamation lawsuit against the BBC can proceed. US House backed motion that derails the impeachment of Defense Secretary Hegseth. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Trilateral talks on a settlement to the Ukraine conflict have concluded in Abu Dhabi, according to Interfax Russia's Kremlin said that there are no plans for contacts with the EU delegation in Abu Dhabi and there have been no such meetings; there's effectively no relation between Russia and the EU. In ongoing talks, Ukraine insists Russia end fighting before discussing European security, AFP reported citing sources. Russia said it hits a cargo vessel in the Black Sea and three Ukraine power substations. Russia local governor said drones hit the Ust-Luga Baltic seaports in Russia's Leningrad region. Russia shot down 92 drones over Leningrad region early on Wednesday. US-IRAN Iran's Rezaei said that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of "distant" US military bases as well, Al Mayadeen reported; will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran. Iran General Abdollahi warned the "US and the Zionist regime that previous blows were only the beginning of the events, and in case of any new calculation error, strikes far more deadly await them." adding, "this is a credible threat...". Iran's Foreign Ministry designated Argentina's Navy and Air Force as terrorist organisations, while it stated the designation is retaliation for Argentina's move against the IRGC. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said in letter to the UN Secretary General, UNSC President and IAEA chief that Iran condemns the US announcement of the Rewards for Justice program which offers USD 20mln for information regarding Iran's nuclear programme. IRGC Rasulullah Commander said the production of missiles and UAV/drones did not stop even during the war and that they have surprises that must be displayed in the field, adds they have obtained several new technologies. IRGC Navy said "another offending oil tanker catches fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz". "This morning, an offending oil tanker caught fire in the unsafe and prohibited area east of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine". UKMTO announces it received a report of an incident involving a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, adds status of the crew, damage assessment and environmental impacts are unknown at this time. US Treasury Secretary Bessent was moved to a military base in the wake of Iranian threats, according to NYT. The assessment is that Iran is expected to continue trying to carry out attacks against US military bases in Britain, while the US army continues to move planes and expensive assets between the bases, according to N12's Assaf Rosenzweig. Iraq PM visited Iran, unofficially, after meeting US President Trump, Al Akhbar reported; sources suggest that the Iraq PM carried a US proposal "confirming that the visit did not lead to results satisfying the US". US Ambassador to China said President Trump is open to nuclear talks with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi, adds US is concerned about indirect benefit from China in Iran war, and US is not getting enough cooperation from China on Iran. OTHERS Houthi armed forces say that they have just successfully intercepted a Saudi F-15 fighter jet formation, preventing it from entering the airspace. Taiwan's Defence Ministry said two Chinese PLA aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line into Taiwan's southwest air defence identification zone. Latvia Armed Forces said that an earlier threat in Latvian airspace has ended. CRYPTO Bitcoin is a little lower this morning and trades around USD 73.6k, with Ethereum also moving lower towards the USD 2k mark. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region mostly shrugged off the subdued handover from Wall St, where all major indices were pressured as the dollar and yields gained on hawkish Fed rhetoric and hotter-than-expected CPI data. The inflation numbers and Fed speak boosted hawkish rate hike bets, with money markets fully pricing in a December rate hike and about a 10% probability for a greater 50bps move. ASX 200 eked out slight gains in range-bound trade as the rebound in tech was counterbalanced by losses in the top-weighted financial sector following earnings from Australia's largest lender, CBA, despite reporting an 8% increase in Q1 unaudited net profit. Nikkei 225 continued to benefit alongside the global tech recovery despite weakness in SoftBank shares after it posted a H1 net loss of JPY 768bln. KOSPI clawed back initial losses and outperformed its regional peers, while the Korea Exchange activated a sidecar on the Kosdaq amid the broad resurgence. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured amid weakness in biotech and EV makers, while the mainland gradually recouped early losses to trade in the green. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES China October vehicle sales fell by 9.2% Y/Y vs prev. decline of 8.4% in September. China's NDRC said it will boost financial risk control for BRI projects and will expand BRI cooperation in emerging sectors. Japanese PM Takaichi said no intention of pursuing fiscal policies that would lead to excessive inflation and she expects the BoJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably and stably hit its 2% price target. South Korea will extend fuel tax cuts for two months to end-January. PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation report says the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Chinese Vehicle Sales (Oct YY) -9.2% (Prev. -8.4%). Japanese Machine Tool Orders (Oct YY) 42.5% (Prev. 60.4%). Japanese Reuters Tankan Index (Nov) 27 (Prev. 22). Australian Home Loans Value QQ (Q3) -15.5% vs Exp. -8.0% (Prev. -5.2%); Australian Investment Lending for Homes (Q3) -32.3% (Prev. -10.2%); Australian Owner Occupied Loan Value (Q3 QQ) -5.3% (Prev. -1.9%).