유럽 증시 개장: CFR SW 상반기 영업이익 급증; BC8 GY EBT 전망 상향; AMS SW 3분기 매출 예상 하회; BOSS GY 신임 CEO 선임; STLAM IM 캐나다 소송 가능성 직면; CARLB DC 인도에서 6억 달러 IPO 계획

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities started the last trading day of the week on the back foot, and look set to end a four-day winning streak as risk sentiment sours. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index reversed a gain of more than 1% to trade lower, while Nasdaq 100 futures are also down. US Treasuries extended their selloff overnight as persistent inflation, hawkish Fed signals and rising debt supply drove yields higher. 2yr yields reached 4.86%, and 10yr yields reached 5.12%, undermining bonds’ haven appeal amid Nvidia (NVDA)-related turmoil. Higher borrowing costs are spreading globally, while investors increasingly price further central-bank tightening and some analysts anticipate 10yr yields will approach 5.5%. Fed’s Williams (voter) said further rate increases are likely needed to curb persistent inflation amid resilient growth and a strengthening labour market. He gave no timetable, noted the economy is not overheating, and said AI investment could respond to interest rates. Williams highlighted a K-shaped economy and cautioned the Fed cannot reverse past price increases. Japanese FinMin Katayama warned of potential currency intervention after the JPY briefly weakened beyond 160 vs the USD. She cited sharp, one-sided movements and pledged appropriate action in coordination with the US Treasury, and reiterated both countries’ preference for exchange rates reflecting economic fundamentals. The Japanese currency remains pressured by the US-Japan interest-rate differential. Separately, the US Treasury confirmed that it spent approximately USD 500mln supporting the JPY during coordinated currency intervention with Japan on 31st July; the New York Fed confirmed it purchased JPY 79.4bln in the spot FX markets by selling EURs from the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilisation Fund. Gold rebounded from a 13-month low as long-term investors bought the dip following a sharp selloff driven by hotter US inflation, rising Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed tightening. Spot gold rose towards USD 3,900/oz, although futures still remained headed for a weekly loss. Copper rebounded from a three-month low as risk appetite stabilised following Nvidia’s leadership upheaval, but a stronger dollar, expectations of further Fed rate hikes and uncertainty over AI infrastructure demand have pressured prices. Copper remains on track for its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Goldman Sachs has maintained its 2027 price forecast of USD 15,400/tonne, but flagged downside risks. Bitcoin fell below USD 70K for the first time since August amid hot inflation, expectations of further Fed tightening and regulatory concerns. Nvidia-related volatility and USD strength added pressure, triggering over USD 1.2bln in bullish crypto liquidations, according to Bloomberg, which notes that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than USD 2.5bln in net outflows. Crude futures are mixed, seeing gains overnight after President Trump’s Thursday remarks, where he stated that the US could forgo an Iran deal, reducing hopes for a diplomatic resolution. Brent trades a little beneath USD 96/bbl, while WTI is below USD 89/bbl. Continued attacks on Gulf shipping and energy infrastructure have also supported prices, although rising US inventories and increased Middle Eastern supply have dented sentiment slightly. In data, French final October CPI rose 3.4% Y/Y (exp. 3.4%; prev. 3.1%), and HICP increased 3.7% Y/Y (exp. 3.8%; prev. 3.4%). STOCK SPECIFICS: TECH: Microsoft (MSFT) is struggling to restore Teams, Outlook and Copilot following a global outage affecting 74 countries and territories for over 11 hours; it attributed the disruption to overloaded infrastructure after servers became unavailable, and ruled out a cyberattack. Recovery efforts remain inconsistent, with OpenAI, Anthropic and public services also affected. Cisco (CSCO) shares slipped in US afterhours trading as slowing product order growth and softer AI orders from hyperscale customers overshadowed stronger than expected quarterly earnings and revenue, upgraded FY guidance and robust demand for AI networking equipment. Applied Materials (AMAT) shares edged higher as stronger than expected quarterly earnings and revenue, alongside upbeat sales guidance, reflected robust AI-driven demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and expectations of continued growth in chipmaker investment. Cerebras (CBRS) shares surged 17% in extended US trading after stronger than expected core revenue, upbeat quarterly and FY guidance, and improving margin expectations were reinforced by a new Microsoft (MSFT) deal, and accelerating demand for AI inference technology. Anthropic’s (ANT) planned Nasdaq IPO next week carries an indicative USD 1.25-1.4tln valuation and is said to be around six times oversubscribed; some investors reportedly expect higher pricing; Morningstar values Anthropic at USD 1.7tln. ASML (ASML NA) could face tighter US restrictions on exports of advanced chipmaking equipment to China under bipartisan legislation backed by OpenAI and Anthropic (ANT), Bloomberg writes; the proposed Match Act would further limit Chinese access to semiconductor manufacturing tools. Nscale (NSCL) warned it needs additional financing in 2027 to fulfil its USD 45bln Anthropic (ANT) contract, complicating its planned USD 35bln IPO, the FT reports. Bechtle (BC8 GY) Q3 revenue printed EUR 1.7bln (exp. 1.74bln), EBIT totalled EUR 99mln (exp. 87.4mln); raised its FY26 outlook, now expects EBT to increase by more than 10% (prev. saw 5-10%). ams OSRAM (AMS SW) Q3 revenue EUR 829mln (exp. 844mln), EPS fell to EUR -0.36 (prev. 0.27 Y/Y); sees Q4 revenue between EUR 750-850mln (exp. 823mln). CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Richemont (CFR SW) reported H1 operating profit of CHF 3.12bln (prev. 2.35bln), and revenue of CHF 12.3bln (exp. 12.2bln); constant-currency sales +17% (exp. 16.2%), supported by jewellery and watches. For Q2, sales increased 13% to EUR 5.95bln (exp. 5.89bln). Specialist Watchmakers gained 10%, while it noted that China markets remained soft. Hugo Boss (BOSS GY) CEO Daniel Grieder will step down, effective 31st December; David Epstein, joining from Frasers Group (FRAS LN), will succeed him as CEO, effective 1st January. Canada is considering suing Stellantis (STLAM IM) for allegedly breaching funding agreements after the carmaker agreed to sell its idle Brampton factory to Roshel; Industry Minister Joly claims Stellantis owes hundreds of millions of Canadian dollars, while the company has offered to repay CAD 24mln. CONSUMER DEFENSIVE: Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC) reportedly plans investor meetings as early as next week for an India IPO potentially raising USD 600mln at a USD 4bln valuation; the offering, potentially launching in January, would involve the Danish parent selling up to 15% of Carlsberg India. INDUSTRIALS: SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) are advancing merger negotiations, and could potentially announce a deal as early as December or early 2027, according to Bloomberg. Their boards are discussing terms and governance for a combination spanning EVs, energy storage, rockets and satellites, and leveraging AI across their operations. Tesla’s Chinese manufacturing and SpaceX’s US defence contracts present significant regulatory challenges, the report adds. Modine Manufacturing (MOD) surged on news that Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) is in talks to acquire the US-listed data centre cooling specialist; a deal could emerge within weeks. Eiffage (FGR FP) Q3 revenue rose 3.3% Y/Y to EUR 6.6bln (exp. 6.18bln), supported by strong momentum in its Works business; 9-month revenue increased 2.6% to EUR 18.8bln, including 1.5% LFL growth at CER; reaffirmed its FY26 outlook. HEALTHCARE: Novartis (NOVN SW) announced new long-term Phase III data showing that Rhapsido (remibrutinib) maintained sustained efficacy through week 52 in patients with chronic inducible urticaria (CIndU). FINANCIALS: Wise (WISE LN) H1 net revenue rose to USD 1.45bln (prev. 1.18bln); expects FY27 constant-currency net revenue growth of 17.5-20%, in the upper half of its medium-term target range of 15-20%. It also expects its FY27 income before tax margin near the top of its 20-25% target range. Generali (G IM) 9-month 2026 adj. net income reached EUR 3.68bln (exp. 3.56bln), gross written premiums totalled EUR 76.5bln (exp. 76.8bln), while operating income was EUR 6.45bln (exp. 6.48bln); reaffirmed its FY26 outlook. UTILITIES: Enel (ENEL IM) 9-month revenue increased to EUR 65.02bln (prev. 60bln Y/Y), adj. EBITDA was at EUR 18bln (exp. 17.7bln), while adj. net income rose to EUR 6.02bln (prev. 5.7bln Y/Y). DAY AHEAD: EVENTS: Informal Meeting of EU Leaders in Dublin. DATA: In Europe, Eurozone Q3 GDP second estimate is seen rising by 0.4% Q/Q (prev. 0.6%), and 1.3% Y/Y (prev. 1.2%), while employment is seen rising 0.2% Q/Q (prev. 0.1%) and 0.4% Y/Y (prev. 0.5%). The Eurozone trade balance is seen printing a surplus of EUR 11.5bln (prev. EUR -16.1bln). In North America, US October PPI is expected to rise 0.4% M/M (prev. 1.3%), and to 6.6% Y/Y (prev. 6.3%); core PPI is seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.7%) and the annual rate is seen unchanged at 5.0% Y/Y. Canada final manufacturing sales are expected to rise 0.1% M/M (prev. 1.5%), and wholesale sales by 0.5% M/M (prev. -1.6%). CENTRAL BANKS: ECB’s Elderson joins a CBRT panel at COP31 (no text expected). Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) speaks on productivity; Fed’s Bowman (voter) speaks on supervision and regulation; Fed’s Collins (2028 voter) gives opening remarks; Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) speaks at UNLV. CRA: Potential reviews are due from Fitch on Germany (AAA), S&P on Italy (BBB+), Morningstar DBRS on the UK (AA). ENERGY: IEA Oil Market Report; EIA weekly natgas storage; Baker Hughes weekly rig counts. PREVIEW - US PPI (13:30GMT/08:30EST): US PPI is expected to rise 0.4% M/M in October (prev. 1.3%), while the annual rate is seen accelerating to 6.6% Y/Y (from 6.3%). Core PPI is expected to increase 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.7%), with the annual rate seen unchanged at 5.0%. The release follows hotter than expected October CPI data, released earlier in the week, which saw headline prices rise 0.4% M/M (exp. 0.3%) and core prices increase 0.3% M/M (exp. 0.2%). Pantheon Macroeconomics said the CPI report was consistent with a 0.35-0.40% M/M increase in core PCE, ahead of its November 25th release. The PPI data will provide further insight into inflationary pressures ahead of the 9th December FOMC meeting, particularly after hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who suggested further tightening was needed and that a 50bps December hike could be warranted if core CPI printed around 0.3% or higher. Money markets are currently fully pricing a hike of at least 25bps in December, with around an 11% probability of a larger 50bps move.