뉴스스콰크 유럽 시장 마감 브리핑 - 2026년 11월 12일

NVIDIA -6.5% after CEO Huang resigns from the company, with CFO Kress to replace him. US President Trump posted "We don’t need a deal with Iran", spurring upside in crude benchmarks. DXY gained whilst the Aussie lagged; USD/JPY eyes 160.00 to the upside. EQUITIES European bourses opened firmer, but then gradually slipped to trade flat/lower after hawkish commentary from US President Trump. He posted on Truth that "We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed”. He mentioned that VP Vance should focus his total attention on tackling corruption in the US – some reporters had framed this as a slight pushback to recent reporting that Vance is looking to meet with an Iranian official next week. European sectors were mixed; Tech was found towards the foot of the pile, with attention on NVIDIA’s Huang, who has now resigned from the company. To replace him, long-serving CFO Kress will become the interim CEO; a Wolfe analyst mentioned that she will be a “very good” interim replacement. Co. shares were already lower in excess of 8% on the initial reports, and then extended lower on the confirmation itself; NVDA -10% as it stands (at worst -16%). US indices opened lower, but have been lifting off worst levels since the open. Unsurprisingly, the NQ is the clear underperformer, dragged down by the CEO transition announcement made by Nvidia. Industry peers such as SanDisk (-6%) have fallen in tandem, whilst competitors such as AMD (+2.6%) gain. The latter also benefits from a broker upgrade at William Blair. In other news, CoreWeave (-10%) reportedly plans to raise at least USD 4bln via IG loan), whilst Eli Lilly (+2%) gains after it won Chinese approval for its oral GLP-1 drug. FX Snapshot: DXY gained across most major G10 peers, after initial tentative trade. The morning saw a traditional risk-off tone displayed in the FX space, with havens (CHF and JPY) leading, whilst Antipodeans lagged. The G10 list now displays a mostly flat picture against the USD, with the JPY faring a little better, whilst the Aussie lagged. DXY gained throughout the session, with the bulk of the gains coming after a post from US President Trump, where he essentially suggested that there is no need to make a deal with Iran. This spurred an uptick in the crude complex, which in-turn spurred some strength in the USD. No move was seen following the Jobless Claims metrics, and after the Fed’s Hammack struck a typical hawkish tone - interestingly, she did not join Waller in hinting at a 50bps move in December. Attention has been on the JPY, with USD/JPY trading beyond the 159.00 mark, within a 159.47-159.95 range. Overnight, Japan's top currency diplomat Mimura provided some jawboning, but failed to materially move the pair. Focus right now is on the widening of Fed-BoJ rate differentials, as such, any attempts of verbal intervention will likely be brushed off. Elsewhere, BoJ’s Asada took his usual dovish tone, by warning against premature rate hikes. FIXED A modestly bullish start for fixed income has waned a touch across the day, with the initial strength a function of the Nvidia-dented risk tone and energy pressure. Nvidia pressure has since extended, while energy has rebounded after commentary from US President Trump, lifting yields across the curve but particularly at the short end. Into the European close, Bunds are essentially flat at 122.50, vs earlier gains of 26 ticks; though, the benchmark remains within familiar ranges with specifics light, aside from geopols. One point of focus has been Dutch TTF, supported by colder European weather, the lack of Ukraine progress and on the mentioned Trump commentary re. Iran; strength that capped initial upside and has since weighed. Gilts are in-fitting. As usual, see greater underperformance than peers on the energy moves, as it adds to the pipeline of price pressures the UK faces and cements further BoE tightening in the near term, and works in favour of those who expect a back-to-back hike in December. Currently, lower by 23 ticks, but off the 85.46 base. Italy sold EUR 5.25bln vs exp. EUR 5-5.75bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 BTP & EUR 1.5bln vs exp. EUR 1-1.5bln 4.10% 2046 BTP Green. 3.00% 2029: b/c 1.54x (prev. 1.56x) & average yield 3.58% (prev. 3.69%). 3.35% 2033: b/c 1.54x (prev. 1.59x) & average yield 4.04% (prev. 4.24%). 4.10% 2046: b/c 1.69x & average yield 4.73%. UK sold GBP 4bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.52x (prev. 3.4x), average yield 4.993% (prev. 4.761%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps). COMMODITIES Energy began on the back foot, amid WSJ reporting that US VP Vance could meet Iran’s Rezaei. A report that was enough to push Brent down to a USD 91.19/bbl base. A modest bounce was seen early doors, on the IRGC announcing that two crude-carrying vessels were struck in Hormuz, taking it to a USD 93.94/bbl peak; albeit, crude then faded. More recently, US President Trump said they do not need a deal with Iran, and he has asked VP Vance to focus on domestic matters. A comment potentially implying the Rezaei meeting won’t be happening, though we await clarity on this. Nonetheless, the post was enough to print a USD 94.40/bbl peak, firmer by over USD 1.50/bbl on the day. Dutch TTF was and remains bid, aided by the lack of progress out of Russia, the slowing of Starshield once again, a colder spell in weather models and then on the above. Together, enough to lift TTF to an EUR 91.22/MWh high. XAU dented by the energy-induced yield upside/USD strength, and failing to find any haven allure from the Nvidia-hit risk tone. Early doors, XAU failed to hold USD 4k/oz, and currently resides just off a USD 3885/oz base. Base peers also lower, given the APAC handover and US tone, 3M LME Copper off by over USD 200. Reports of widespread fire and a significant increase in flaring at Saudi Aramco's Zuluf oil project, Fars reported. EUROPEAN DATA German Current Account (Sep) 18.7B (Prev. 10.3B). UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Oct) 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%). UK Trade Balance (Sep) -5.134B (Prev. -0.920B). UK Construction Orders (Q3 YY) -25.3% (Prev. -18.5%). UK Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (Sep) -8.99B (Prev. -6.82B). UK Goods Trade Balance (Sep) -22.29B vs. Exp. -19.2B (Prev. -19.61B). UK Business Investment Prel (Q3 YY) 3.0% (Prev. 5.2%). UK Industrial Production (Sep YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 1.1%). UK GDP 3-Month Avg (Sep) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%). UK Business Investment Prel (Q3 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 1.8%). UK GDP (Sep MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.0%). UK Manufacturing Production (Sep MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.7%). UK Construction Output (Sep YY) -1.5% vs. Exp. -2.1% (Prev. -1.9%). UK Manufacturing Production (Sep YY) 4.4% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 2.5%). UK Industrial Production (Sep MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.7%). UK GDP (Sep YY) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.0%). UK GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 YY) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.4%). UK GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 QQ) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.5%). NOTABLE HEADLINES UK government reportedly not ruling out benefit entitlement changes for current claimants, ahead of the Millburn review next Tuesday, reported The Times. TRADE/TARIFFS US House Speaker Johnson said he is in favour of limiting chip exports to China. Developing consensus on export controls. US President Trump threatens to double tariffs on Mexico if it does not stop Caravan's crossing into the US. US Senator Cotton reportedly urges Commerce Secretary Lutnick to add Chinese memory maker CXMT (688825 CH) to the ban list, CNBC reported. Some Democrats are reportedly pushing to keep the US House’s China committee, Semafor reported. China's Commerce Minister exchanged views on electric vehicles with the UK Trade Minister. CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Hammack (voter, hawkish dissenter) said the Fed is doing very well on the job side of the mandate, and has been missing on inflation mandate for years; recent inflation data shows it is moving in wrong direction. ECB's Kazaks said that a December rate hike is likely as further tightening is necessary. Riksbank Deputy Governor Bunge said gradual changes allow each step to be assessed. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE US Envoy Witkoff expects to announce a date for a tripartite meeting on Ukraine today, Interfax reported. US Special Envoy Witkoff said we hope that, following the negotiations with Russian President Putin, it will be possible to announce a new round of trilateral talks in which Europeans would take part, RIA reported. Russian President Putin said Russia had positive cooperation with Ukraine regarding Oleshky, proposed organising a humanitarian mission from Kostiantynivka, based on the Oleshky experience, reported Interfax. Russian President Putin proposed assigning the Russian and Ukrainian ombudsmen the task of organising a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka. Russia has never been against dialogue with Europe. Russia needs five days to clear mines from the area near Kostiantynivka; if Kyiv considers the city under its control, let it ensure its own security. Would like peace in Ukraine to last forever. Russia has said from the very beginning that the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine is unacceptable. Foreign troops in Ukraine are a legitimate target for Russia. US Special Envoy Witkoff said contacts in Abu Dhabi took place in a positive atmosphere, Interfax reported. Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Abu Dhabi worked effectively. Upcoming prisoner exchange indicates progress towards a settlement. Kremlin’s Peskov said Russian President Putin will chair a Security Council meeting today, Interfax reported. Russian Official Ryabkov urges avoiding uncontrolled escalation after negotiations. Russian President Putin is reportedly to speak with the US envoys at around 09:00GMT. MIDDLE EAST US President Trump posted "We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait! Thank you for your attention to this matter.". Full post: "I have asked Vice President Vance to focus his complete and total attention on the Massive Corruption and Crime taking place in Democrat run Cities and States throughout the U.S. The Blue States, such as Minnesota, California, Illinois, and many more, are all poorly run, corrupt disasters. Billions of Dollars is being stolen each and every month. Our Budget could be quickly BALANCED with the correction of this large scale criminal activity. CORRUPTION is in the Democrat Leadership’s blood! We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT". Iran's Assembly of Experts said they are "studying the issue of withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has become an unavoidable necessity and has turned into a popular and national demand". Israeli Defence Minister Katz said they would not wait for permission to take action against Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, or the West Bank; decision making is up to PM Netanyahu's cabinet. Iran's Press TV states that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on maritime traffic through the Strait, while Iran said 7 conditions must be met for talks and Hormuz reopening, according to Press TV. Iranian Army said two tankers struck naval mines while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, ISNA reported. US Special Envoy Kushner said US has begun talks with European partners on a European-wide security architecture. UKMTO has received a time-late report of an incident in the Arabian Gulf; a tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile whilst travelling eastbound. Iranian advisor said if the seven conditions are not met, there will be no negotiations. Ambrey said a merchant vessel was struck by an unknown projectile 14 NM off UAE's Ras Al Khaimah on Wednesday. IRGC said there were explosions affecting two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; "Both vessels were super tankers carrying in total more than 4 million barrels of oil, which are now burning in the fire of trust in the plundering and aggressive US Army.". NORTH AMERICAN DATA US Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/31) 1697K vs. Exp. 1710K (Prev. 1717K). US Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/07) 200K vs. Exp. 195K (Prev. 191K). US Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Nov/07) 195.25K (Prev. 195.25K). BofA (w/e 7 Nov) Total Card Spending +5.1% Y/Y (prev. +6.2%); spending growth remains healthy but has slowed, likely due to a moderation in gas prices.