[미리보기] ECB 정책 발표, 2026년 10월 29일 목요일 13:15 GMT/09:15 EDT 예정

Expected to maintain rates, keeping the Deposit Rate at 2.50%. Guidance likely to be data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting, though both dovish and hawkish risks are present from France and energy prices, respectively. France is likely to dominate the Q&A, and while Moody’s has removed some of the near-term risk, a hawkish meeting would be a surprise in this context. OVERVIEW: Expected to hold rates, leaving the Deposit Rate at 2.50%. While there are clear hawkish factors and risks to this, the current environment and recent commentary do not point to a deviation from the forecast-meeting approach for tightening, and thus a back-to-back hike is not expected, but of course cannot be entirely ruled out. In the approach to the ECB, the main dovish risk was the French fiscal and civil backdrop; however, Moody’s maintaining its assessment has, for now at least, seemingly drawn a line under the selloff. Nonetheless, the statement and press conference will be scoured for, and likely dominated by, the French issue, as participants look for any sign that it has prompted a change from the ECB in its approach, i.e. any dovish skew. For December, the ECB will most likely remain non-committal with a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach, but with around 20bps of tightening implied by end-2026, and only a basis point or two ascribed to October, markets will be sensitive to any dovish or hawkish clues. Points that are likely to come from France, as outlined, and energy/prices respectively, particularly as Dutch TTF has got to within a few Euros of EUR 100/MWh, well above the EUR 75/MWh under the ECB’s adverse scenario. Such updates could also arise via post-press conference sources. PREVIOUS MEETING: In September, the ECB hiked by 25bps as expected, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.50%. The statement reiterated that they are not pre-committing to a particular rate path, following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach in determining policy. Thereafter, President Lagarde confirmed the decision was a unanimous one, and the hike would have occurred under all three of the additional scenarios provided. The hike was described as “robust”, with this and the all-three-scenarios point supporting Bunds, seemingly on the implied narrative that 50bps was not required under any of the scenarios. At the time, the September meeting was in line with market pricing, which pointed to further tightening ahead and very much kept October in play if economic conditions merited it. RECENT DATA: September’s HICP came in at 3.8% Y/Y, hotter than the market view of 3.6% and well above the 3.2% prior. Upside was driven, unsurprisingly, by energy, which stood at 18.9% (prev. 14.3%) in September, and contributed 1.71pp (prev. 1.29pp) to the headline. Pertinently, while the core measures did tick higher, this was relatively modest in nature and driven by marked upside in components such as tobacco, which is not excluded from select core components. October’s EZ Flash PMI deteriorated, but remains expansionary, and indicative of quarterly GDP growth of 0.3%, slightly slower than the implied pace from September, but still strong in the context of the last two-three years of performance. The primary drag was France, where all three headline metrics fell into contractionary territory, and will likely be revised lower by S&P Global once the market moves after October 21st are accounted for, when the French 10yr hit 5.14%; however, the hold by Moody’s may serve to cushion some of the blow. For prices, the series showed a further escalation of inflationary pressures, with input costs “rising sharply again” amid elevated energy, a point that has driven manufacturing selling prices higher; something that could be indicative of second-round effects, if it continues. October’s BLS showed a further tightening of credit standards, and a decline in loan demand across all segments, weighed on by higher rates and bank risk perceptions. Pertinently, for firms, net tightening of conditions surpassed the prior survey’s expected outcome, evidence that conditions are restrictive and weighing on business/household activity. Ahead, if this continues, it could become a headwind for growth across the EZ. COMMENTARY: The most recent remark from President Lagarde was her commenting on September's HICP series, highlighting the energy-driven upside and how there had not yet been a material wage response; a point that is not indicative of second-round effects. On policy, the most pertinent recent commentary was Dolenc on the 15th, outlining that they are not yet seeing second-round effects, and that the ECB “may not have to do much” if markets tighten. Chief Economist Lane, on the 13th, outlined that the increase in long-term rates is a “material” tightening, and relevant for the ECB when determining policy. While not directly pertinent to current policy, the tenure of Lagarde has come under greater focus as reports mid-month suggested that the WEF could appoint her as soon as November 2026, much earlier than her current ECB term-end of October 2027. To remind, Lagarde has not entertained speculation around her departure, aside from stating she will leave “in 2027”. Lagarde aside, December is the final meeting featuring the often influential Schnabel, while Chief Economist Lane departs in May 2027. FRANCE: The main dovish risk to the meeting, though the maintained Aa3, Outlook Negative assessment by Moody’s has removed enough of the immediate pressure to mean a dovish reassessment based on France is unlikely to emerge. Nonetheless, the French situation means that a hawkish ECB would be a surprise, even with 20bps of further tightening implied by end-2026. Given the widening in OAT spreads vs EZ peers, the woeful PMI series, the underlying lack of fiscal cohesion/progression and ongoing civil unrest within France as we count down to the 2027 Presidential election, TPI is likely to be a key focus point of the Q&A. Dolenc suggested TPI can be used if needed. Simkus, on October 14th, made clear that there is not a role for ECB intervention with regards to France, as yields are rising due to fundamental developments. From Lagarde, it will be interesting to see if she is asked if France would meet the four eligibility criteria for TPI, namely: compliance with the EU framework (France, since July 2024, has been under EU EDP); absence of severe macroeconomic imbalances; fiscal sustainability (Commission, ESM & IMF all have unfavourable views on this); sound/sustainable macroeconomic policies. Aside from the French fiscal schedule, the next major risk event for France is the scheduled sovereign review by S&P Global on November 27th. S&P downgraded France to A+/A-1 in October 2025, with a stable outlook, balancing the nation's credit and economic strength against rising debt and a weak political backdrop. At the time, the downside scenario was that S&P “...could lower our ratings on France if its budgetary position deteriorates beyond our forecast or economic growth prospects worsen significantly”. Both conditions have arguably been met.