뉴스스쿼크 데일리 아시아-태평양 개장 뉴스 - 2026년 11월 3일

US stocks were mixed as most major US indices fell, driven primarily by a renewed afternoon sell-off in Tech, despite optimism surrounding US-Iran diplomacy, although the majority of sectors finished in the green, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 also gained, highlighting positive market breadth. Tech and energy led the downside, while Health Care and Communication Services also finished lower. Within the tech sector, Oracle (ORCL) came under pressure after announcing a USD 10bln debt offering and USD 10bln equity offering, while Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) both tumbled after MRVL agreed to acquire LITE in a USD 115bln all-stock deal. USD saw slight losses amid the initial broader risk-on environment given the more constructive US/Iran Middle East updates, and following oil weakness, while currency-specific newsflow was fairly light, although there were some data releases with ISM Manufacturing PMI the highlight, in which the headline topped expectations, prices paid fell more than anticipated, while new orders and employment were little changed M/M. Fed-wise, neither of the Fed’s hawkish dissenters has spoken yet, and the attention now turns to the midterms on Tuesday. Oil prices slumped by around 8% amid hopes for diplomacy between the US and Iran, ahead of the midterms. Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean CPI, RBA Rate Decision & Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, Comments from RBA Governor Bullock, Holiday Closure in Japan. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -0.5% Nasdaq Comp. -1.1% DJIA +0.4% Russell 2000 -0.2% ES Dec'26 -0.4% RTY Dec'26 -0.1% NQ Dec'26 -1.1% YM Dec'26 +0.4% FX DXY -0.2% (101.78) EUR/USD +0.3% USD/JPY +0.3% GBP/USD +0.1% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +3.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 +27 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.91% German 10yr Yield 3.29% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -7.6% Brent Jan'27 -8.2% Spot Gold +1.9% LME Copper +1.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin -2.0% Ethereum -0.9% As of 21:50GMT/16:50EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include South Korean CPI, RBA Rate Decision & Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, Comments from RBA Governor Bullock, Holiday Closure in Japan. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said "No" to striking Iran after elections, according to a Pool Report. US President Trump posted: "Oil Prices are DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, down almost $10 a Barrel, A RECORD, because people feel that there will not be a War with Iran. Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen! US President Trump said they would "see about a deal" with Iran and that Tehran wanted to reach an agreement. Trump also stated the US had knocked out two of Iran's regimes and reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, while he added that the US had "blown up their nuclear arsenal" and was "not really fighting right now". US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and that could happen, while he added that Iran said even recently that they won't have a nuclear weapon. US President Trump told N12 News that he is in no hurry to resume the war and that they are crippling Iran's economy, while he also stated that the Iranian leadership doesn't have the sense of urgency that he thought there would be, but added that they want a deal more than at any point since the beginning of the war. US VP Vance said some progress was made on Iran and will see if we can make some more, while he added they have not set deadlines to resume strikes and had a number of good talks with Iranians. A breakthrough in US-Iranian negotiations was reportedly seen after Qatari mediation successfully overcame procedural obstacles, according to Al Jadeed, citing a diplomatic source. The US is reportedly leaning towards not making the nuclear issue a priority and instead including it within the broader negotiation framework, while Washington's objective is to secure a breakthrough on the nuclear file that President Trump could present to the American public in exchange for concessions on other issues in Iran's favour. US and Iran are reportedly on the verge of a preliminary agreement, with the coming hours to be decisive, according to ILNA citing Al Shanara News Agency. Qatari mediators have drafted a three-day sequence of confidence-building measures to resume direct US-Iran talks, and are awaiting feedback from both nations, according to Axios citing sources. It was separately reported that Qatari mediators were travelling to Tehran for talks regarding a potential US-Iran agreement. The exchange of messages between Iran and the US through intermediaries is a common thing, and no new developments have occurred in this regard, while it was emphasised that until the US implements Iran's seven conditions, there will definitely be no new events or actions, according to sources cited by Fars. Iran has threatened US bases in Europe if US President Trump orders renewed strikes against the country, while undersea internet cables are also reportedly at risk after Trump warned he could hit the regime with a "hammer" following the midterm elections, according to The Times. Iranian President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government some authority to engage in dialogue, adding that war would not serve anyone's interests and that Iran's enemies would not be able to force it to surrender, according to ISNA. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran was more prepared than ever for both a military response and diplomacy, according to IRNA, adding that consultations through mediators Qatar and Pakistan were highly intensive. Araghchi said Iran had presented its conditions and plan, with everything depending on Washington's political rationality, adding that Tehran was ready to pursue honest diplomacy but would deliver a heavier response than before if the US intended to deceive Iran and resume military operations. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said compressing Tehran's seven-day proposal and potentially implementing it within two days demonstrated the Islamic Republic's goodwill, adding that exchanges of messages were continuing and Washington needed to make a decision. Baghaei separately commented that Iran's potential withdrawal from the NPT remained under discussion, although Tehran remained committed to the treaty, according to Naya. He also denied that exporting uranium enriched to 60% to a third country had been discussed in Doha, while he warned that any aggression against Iran, regardless of the means used, would receive a strong, immediate and comprehensive response, according to Sabereen. Iranian security chief Rezaei and Russian President Putin held a telephone conversation to discuss regional and international developments, including the situation in West Asia, according to SNN. Iranian senior official said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Tehran's demands were met, according to N12, adding that Iran remained open to diplomacy but only on its own terms. Iranian senior official said reopening the Strait of Hormuz required Washington to accept Iran's seven conditions, according to Kyodo, adding that Tehran could adopt a more flexible position on the nuclear issue if an agreement on reopening the waterway was reached. Iran is reportedly considering measures including reducing uranium enrichment levels and transferring highly enriched uranium abroad. Iranian negotiators left talks with US and Qatari mediators in Doha on Sunday while a draft US agreement was circulating, with a possible follow-up meeting under consideration, according to the New York Post, citing sources. ILNA separately reported that the Iranian delegation had left Doha while reviewing a draft agreement with Washington, while an Iranian official suggested the possibility of another meeting had increased. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly pressed Trump to swiftly resume military operations against Iran following this week's US elections, according to the Financial Times, citing sources. However, sources added that both Washington and Tehran wanted a deal and were showing signs of greater flexibility, although it remained unclear whether diplomatic efforts could bridge the differences. Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon said neither Israel nor the US was discussing launching a nuclear strike against Iran, while adding that Israel would support the US resolution on Iran, according to Al Arabiya. In Israel, the next two months are reportedly being marked as a 'window of opportunity' facing the IDF and the American Central Command for an attack on Iran, according to Kan News. Russian Foreign Ministry said signals of planned renewed military action against Iran were a matter of extreme concern, according to TASS. Chinese Foreign Minister met with Iran's Bagheri Kani, according to SNN, with Beijing maintaining that negotiations were the only solution to the situation in the Middle East. China's special envoy is expected to visit Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia within the next two weeks, according to IRIB, citing Al Mayadeen. Iran's PGSA blacklisted another group of vessels for breaching its Strait of Hormuz protocols, taking the total number of non-compliant ships to 240. Two US MQM-170 reconnaissance drones were shot down in the sky south of Qeshm Island, according to SNN. Five explosions were heard on Qeshm Island, which occurred continuously, one after the other, and given the intensity of the explosions, it seems that they were hit inside the island, while some Qeshm residents also reported two planes flying in the sky over Qeshm, according to IRNA. It was separately reported that residents of Hengam and Bandar Abbas also heard the explosions. Iranian Navy said a tanker caught fire after striking a naval mine in a restricted area east of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the vessel had switched off its navigation and identification systems, according to IRIB News. Two explosions were reportedly heard within the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen's Houthis said they had struck a military aircraft at Jizan airport and targeted Dammam airport with two drones in Saudi Arabia. Yemeni military source claimed there had been numerous casualties, including Saudi personnel, following clashes between Saudi-backed forces during a failed advance towards Bab al-Mandab, according to Naya. Saudi-led coalition intercepted two drones over Riyadh. Explosions were heard inside the British Embassy in Baghdad, according to Tasnim, citing sources. US TRADE US stocks were mixed as most major US indices fell, driven primarily by a renewed afternoon sell-off in Tech, despite optimism surrounding US-Iran diplomacy, although the majority of sectors finished in the green, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 also gained, highlighting positive market breadth. Tech and energy led the downside, while Health Care and Communication Services also finished lower. Within the tech sector, Oracle (ORCL) came under pressure after announcing a USD 10bln debt offering and USD 10bln equity offering, while Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) both tumbled after MRVL agreed to acquire LITE in a USD 115bln all-stock deal. SPX -0.51% at 7,541, NDX -1.39% at 27,990, DJI +0.41% at 51,989, RUT -0.21% at 2,806. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE USTR Greer said Trump had determined that the governments of Rwanda and South Africa were engaging in practices that breached AGOA eligibility criteria. South African government said it will support affected sectors and protect national interests, as well as stated that the US remains an important trade and investment partner, while it acknowledged the withdrawal of AGOA benefits and recognises the concern for businesses. NOTABLE HEADLINES US President Trump said the US midterm elections would not be secure and that Elon Musk was not wrong in warning that a Democratic sweep could see the country overrun, adding that he would veto everything if Democrats won the midterms and that opinion polls were wrong. Fed SLOOS stated that over Q3, banks reported that lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms were basically unchanged, while standards tightened for C&I loans to small firms. US National Economic Council Director Hassett said the AI ecosystem was well-financed and flush with cash, dismissing comparisons with the financial crisis and seeking to reassure investors, according to CNBC. Hassett added that he did not see a risk of a broad AI-related selloff. US Treasury Financing Estimates (Q4): Projected borrowing of 618bln (vs guided 628bln) in privately held net marketable debt, assuming an end-Dec cash balance of USD 850bln (vs guided 850bln) DATA RECAP US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 55.5 vs. Exp. 54.6 (Prev. 54.5) US ISM Manufacturing New Orders (Oct) 55.5 (Prev. 55.3) US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct) 52.4 (Prev. 52.7) US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Oct) 75.2 vs. Exp. 77.0 (Prev. 77.9) US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 54.9 vs. Exp. 56.0 (Prev. 56.0) US Construction Spending (Sep MM) -1.9% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.9%) FX USD saw slight losses amid the initial broader risk-on environment given the more constructive US/Iran Middle East updates, and following oil weakness, while currency-specific newsflow was fairly light, although there were some data releases with ISM Manufacturing PMI the highlight, in which the headline topped expectations, prices paid fell more than anticipated, while new orders and employment were little changed M/M. Fed-wise, neither of the Fed’s hawkish dissenters has spoken yet, and the attention now turns to the midterms on Tuesday. EUR gained amid the dollar weakness and with the single currency shrugging off the protests in Germany and last week's unscheduled Fitch outlook downgrade for France, while ECB's Kazimir said markets might still be underestimating the monetary policy path required and stated that the question was increasingly not whether further action was needed, but how much. GBP eked slight gains amid light newsflow from the UK and with the BoE expected to hike rates later this week. JPY was choppy and ultimately weakened despite the decline in oil prices and softer US yields, while Japanese participants will be absent from the market on Tuesday for the Culture Day holiday. FIXED INCOME T-notes settled higher and yields dropped as oil prices declined on US/Iran diplomacy hopes. COMMODITIES Oil prices slumped by around 8% amid hopes for diplomacy between the US and Iran, ahead of the midterms. Russia's Kremlin said current realities on the ground ruled out plans to resume Russian gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine, responding to a Wall Street Journal report. UAE Energy and Infrastructure Minister said the country's exports had at times exceeded pre-war levels. Kazakhstan reported a halt to oil flows through the Atyrau-Samara pipeline. China and Oman reportedly agreed to deepen cooperation in the oil and gas sectors and expand collaboration on renewable energy, including solar, storage and wind, according to Xinhua. GEOPOLITICAL OTHER North Korea said it tested a strategic cruise missile on Monday and the test was of vertical-strike flight characteristics. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES PBoC will launch a one-year, extendable swap facility for securities, fund and insurance companies on November 3rd to support capital market stability, with 31 firms having applied for more than CNY 100bln in funding. PBoC pledged to strengthen support for the stock market by expanding participation in its swap facility for securities firms, funds and insurers, moderately lowering swap fees and conducting operations when appropriate. The central bank added that financial institutions would be encouraged to make greater use of two equity-support tools to bolster market stability and confidence. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES ECB's Kazimir said markets might still be underestimating the monetary policy path required, while he added the question was increasingly not whether further action was needed, but how much, and policymakers should act before elevated inflation became normalised, rather than waiting for price pressures to broaden and businesses to pass on higher costs. ECB's Moulin said it was highly likely that France would agree on a budget, adding that markets were probably overreacting to the country's situation despite concerns about its fiscal outlook. DATA RECAP UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 51.9) European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.9) French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 50.6) Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.4 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.4) German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 54.2 vs. Exp. 54.2 (Prev. 53.9) German Retail Sales (Sep MM) -2.0% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.3%)