Market Analysis

[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses gain to end the week; UK Banks under pressure following Budget sources

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European shares rose early, while UK banks faced reported tax concerns. MSCI proposed consulting on Indonesia’s status; its reclassification remains undecided.

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European bourses have an upward bias to start the final trading session of the week, with cyclical-heavy indices outperforming as tech rebounds from this week's losses. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Autos lead, with Media and Telecoms following closely behind. To the downside resides Health Care, as the only sector in the red. UK banks are under pressure this morning after Bloomberg reported that UK Chancellor Healey will raise taxes on banks. The report follows a Guardian source stating that the proposal includes a 3% increase to the bank surcharge. Lloyds (-2.3%) and NatWest (-2.1%) are under the most pressure, while Barclays (-0.2%) and HSBC (+0.5%) are little moved given its large international business. Other key movers include: Schneider Electric -0.9%, despite Q3 revenue beat and raise of FY26 guidance; Nordex +13%, Q3 revenue and EBITDA tops estimates and lifts its FY EBITDA margin guidance; Brunelli Cucinelli +5.8%, Q3 sales beats expectations and raises its FY revenue growth outlook; BE Semiconductor -2.7%, with ASML reportedly developing an advanced chip-bonding tool. Over in Asia, a rare inclusion of Indonesian stocks here, given comments by the MSCI warning that the country no longer merits EM status and is consulting on a proposal to reclassify Indonesia as a standalone market. In June, Goldman Sachs estimated that a potential downgrade points to around USD 5bln in passive outflows from MSCI index-tracking funds and a further USD 3.5bln if the FTSE Russell follows. iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF opens lower by over 11% in pre-market trading. US equity futures follow their European peers. Tesla (+4.4%) is getting a boost pre-market as it unveils its flying car, while Strategy (-2.4%) falls after MSCI announces new screening methodology that targets companies holding digital assets.

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