Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 15th October 2026

US President Trump said the Iran conflict will end soon; the US military reportedly developed new strike plans targeting Iranian energy and nuclear sites. APAC stocks slumped amid the global tech sell-off and hotter-than-expected US CPI; US and European equity futures declined. KOSPI was the worst performer and triggered circuit breakers after dropping as much as 8% owing to its large tech exposure. DXY softened alongside lower US yields; crude futures retreated, while gold rallied on haven demand. Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Aug), French Final Inflation (Sep), US Jobless Claims (Oct/10), PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), Philly Fed Index (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include US President Trump, BoJ’s Koeda, BoE’s Pill, Greene & Breeden, Fed’s Bowman & Hammack, BoC’s Rogers, ECB's Cipollone. Supply from Spain & France. Earnings from TSMC, Ericsson, Charles Schwab & Alcoa. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 -4.3% ASX 200 -0.1% Hang Seng -1.3% KOSPI -7.3% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 -0.7% DAX Dec'26 -0.4% ES Dec'26 -0.3% NQ Dec'26 -0.7% FX DXY -0.4% (102.08) EUR/USD +0.5% (1.1213) USD/JPY -0.2% (157.93) GBP/USD +0.4% (1.3243) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +17.5 ticks Bund Dec'26 +83 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.11% German 10yr Yield 3.44% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 -1.1% Brent Dec'26 -1.7% Spot Gold +0.9% Copper Futures -1.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.5% Ethereum -2.1% As of 06:15BST/01:15EDT Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said they have complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and are extracting more oil from it than ever before, while he stated that Iran was two weeks away from acquiring a nuclear weapon before the US struck their sites. Trump also reiterated that the matter in Iran will end very soon, and when it ends, gasoline prices will drop to levels even lower than they were before the start of military operations. US military developed new strike plans that include potentially using the so-called “mother of all bombs” to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should President Trump give the order to resume combat operations either before or after the midterm elections, according to multiple US officials familiar with the matter cited by CNN. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said that when Tehran talks about both fighting and negotiating, it does not mean waging an endless war or engaging in constant negotiations. He added that Iran would continue fighting until the enemy was forced to meet the nation's demands or accept defeat. Ghalibaf also said regarding the US proposal, that they must be punished and made to understand that they must accept the legitimate demands of the Iranian people. IRGC spokesperson said attack on violating ships was a response to US's breach of promises. Houthis are reportedly developing their own advanced ballistic missiles that could reach Saudi Arabia and Israel using Chinese-delivered parts, according to New York Post. Houthi spokesperson said the group had attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with a ballistic missile, while the group's armed forces targeted several Saudi troop concentrations in the Ras al-Ara and al-Mudharabah areas with three ballistic missiles. Explosions were reportedly heard in Jeddah as Houthis targeted Aramco's Jeddah North distribution station in Saudi Arabia, according to Naya. Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted and destroyed a drone in the kingdom's eastern region. Yemen's air defences downed a Saudi Typhoon warplane in the skies over Saada in Yemen, according to Fars. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks were sold on Wednesday, with initial pressure following the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, particularly in the core metrics. Meanwhile, AI concerns continued to mount, with further weakness in memory stocks, while concerns over AI-related financing intensified after CoreWeave's corporate bond yield rose above 15%, with Bloomberg noting that its bonds had reached levels typically associated with distress. AI-related stocks were sold aggressively throughout the session, raising broader concerns over credit risk and the sustainability of AI-related financing, while Financials were lower again as Q3 earnings continue to display a mixed picture. SPX -1.05% at 7,724, NDX -2.02% at 29,951, DJI -0.09% at 51,622, RUT -1.90% at 2,730. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US and China race to shape AI agenda ahead of the Xi-Trump talks on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November. Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa said Japan and the US agreed on the first chip project under the USD 550bln investment plan, while he added the chip project has great significance in the AI era and they remain strongly committed to last year's trade deal. Akazawa also commented that the latest chip project is to enhance Japan and US ties further, and stated that collaborating on chip supply is key for economic security. SK Hynix (000660 KS) seeks US approval to export chip‑making equipment to China as a condition for its new US factory, according to sources. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed Beige Book stated that most districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels and that since the prior Beige Book, two of the twelve Federal Reserve districts reported moderate growth in economic activity. It stated three districts reported modest growth, while four reported slight growth, and three reported no significant change. Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said they are more likely than not to need more rate hikes, but still deliberating on timing, while she added they are not in a posture of urgency and better to be thoughtful and deliberate. Daly stated it is reassuring that after the market's initial 'robust' reaction to CPI data, markets are calmer, while she said it feels imprudent to react when there is time to make a good decision. Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said a hotter-than-expected reading on September inflation is “discouraging" but wants to wait for more data before taking action to raise rates higher, while he stated that if the underlying trend in inflation is 4% core inflation, it is "not acceptable" and not compatible with the Fed's target, and that policy needs to address it. US President Trump says the Fed has interest rates artificially high. White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair said, referring to the inflation report, that this is not a good month and stated that Bureau of Labor Statistics data is reliable. US Judge limited Justice Department's access to Rep. Ilhan Omar's records in sprawling immigration fraud probe, according to CNN's Jake Tapper. It was separately reported that the Trump administration's investigation into Rep. Omar is aimed at building a case to strip her of her US citizenship and ultimately deport her, according to US officials and other people familiar with the probe cited by WSJ. NY Fed desk plans to conduct around USD 14.6bln (prev. USD 15.6bln) in reinvestment purchases between October 15th and November 13th. White House official said the first White House AI task force meeting is on Thursday. Anthropic revenue rose to USD 16.8bln in Q3 vs prev. USD 11.5bln in Q2, while it told investors it was profitable on an adjusted basis, according to FT. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks were lower across the board as the sell-off rolled over into the region following the losses stateside owing to the tech rout and hot CPI data. ASX 200 was slightly lower but with the downside limited as underperformance in tech and miners was offset by resilience in financials, telecoms and defensive sectors, while disappointing jobs data further lessened the likelihood of the central bank hiking rates again next month. Nikkei 225 slumped by more than 3000 points, with double-digit losses seen in several tech stocks. KOSPI was the worst performer and triggered circuit breakers after dropping as much as 8% owing to its large tech exposure and the ongoing bloodbath in the sector. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad-based tech-driven weakness, with recent stronger-than-expected lending data doing little to spur risk sentiment. US equity futures extended on recent selling with Emini Nasdaq 100 beneath the 30,000 level. European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.4% on Wednesday. FX DXY continued to weaken after wiping out the knee-jerk gains from the hotter-than-expected CPI report, with the reversal coinciding with a drop in yields as bonds rallied amid a flight to safety, while there were also recent Fed comments with Bowman stating there is no urgency to take further action on interest rates, while Goolsbee said a hotter-than-expected reading on September inflation is “discouraging" but wants to wait for more data before taking action to lift rates higher. EUR/USD clawed back recent losses as the dollar dwindled, while participants got to digest rhetoric from ECB officials, with Simkus stating that he doesn't see a role for ECB intervention in France at present and doesn't see evident second-round effects yet. Furthermore, Pereira said the good news is that inflation is not spreading and if inflation starts broadening, central banks will be forced to act. GBP/USD benefited from the broad dollar weakness and reclaimed the 1.3200 handle, with a report noting that UK Chancellor Healey said he will follow IMF advice to stick to deficit reduction plans in the October 28th Budget, while participants now look ahead to monthly GDP and production data. USD/JPY fell beneath the 158.00 handle owing to the softer buck, haven demand and stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders, while there were comments from BoJ board member Koeda that the central bank should not become overly cautious about raising the policy interest rate, and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said there was no change in the US-Japan message since intervention. Antipodeans were mixed with AUD/USD underperforming following the latest jobs data, which showed an unexpected contraction in headline Employment Change, which was solely due to part-time work, while the Unemployment Rate rose, although it coincided with a fall in the Participation Rate. FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures extended their rebound from post-CPI lows as the tech sell-off triggered a flight to quality, while comments from Fed officials pointed to a lack of urgency for immediate rate increases. Bund futures remained underpinned amid the stock rout and a pullback in oil. 10yr JGB futures tracked the rebound in global peers as yields declined, with prices ignoring the stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders data. COMMODITIES Crude futures retreated overnight amid the broad risk-off mood and gave back the prior day's geopolitically fuelled gains amid little sign of a breakthrough or de-escalation of tensions. US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -11.1mln (exp. +1.9mln), Gasoline +1.1mln (exp. -0.8mln), Distillate -1.5mln (exp. -2.0mln), Cushing +1.8mln. Russian diesel is expected to reach the US market before the November 3rd Midterm Election, according to sources cited by the New York Post. US is reportedly discussing lifting some sanctions on shadow fleet vessels in an attempt to lower global freight rates and boost oil flows in the Middle East, according to an official. Spot gold rallied amid a softer dollar and as the global tech sell-off spurred haven demand. Copper futures steadily declined alongside the broad negative risk sentiment. CRYPTO Bitcoin declined with price action choppy on both sides of the USD 81,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES BoJ Board Member Koeda said she believes that the bank should adjust the policy interest rate in a timely manner with an eye on the economic and price situation, while keeping in mind the estimated range of the neutral interest rate. Koeda said given that there have been considerable upside risks to prices in addition to continued accommodative and financial conditions, the bank should not become overly cautious about raising the policy interest rate. Koeda believes it will be necessary to pay attention to both AI-related exports and imports, and stated that recent interest rate increases are not necessarily expected to reduce overall consumption of the working generation. RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said New Zealand is feeling the effects of the oil price shock, while he affirmed the direction of the OCR is most likely up and the next OCR decision is wide open. DATA RECAP Japanese Machinery Orders (Aug MM) 5.2% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. -3.7%) Japanese Machinery Orders (Aug YY) 18.6% vs. Exp. 15.7% (Prev. 11.2%) Australian Employment Change (Sep) -39.3K vs. Exp. 20K (Prev. 39.5K) Australian Full Time Employment Change (Sep) 34.4K (Prev. -6.3K) Australian Part Time Employment Chg (Sep) -73.7K (Prev. 45.8K) Australian Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.6%) Australian Participation Rate (Sep) 66.8% vs. Exp. 67% (Prev. 67.1%) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE US proposed that European countries unfreeze some Russian sovereign assets in an effort to revive peace talks during discussions in Miami last week between Trump's peace negotiators and officials from Ukraine, France, Germany, the UK, the EU and NATO, while European delegates rebuffed the plan, according to FT. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine will resume strikes on Russian refineries, while expressing anger at the 'dangerous' withdrawal of US intelligence sharing and weakening of Starlink satellite internet service, according to an interview with FT. Ukrainian President Zelensky said 'yes' when asked if he felt betrayed by US President Trump's diesel deal with Russia, but added that the situation was complicated, while a Zelensky adviser said Russian reports about refinery strikes were fake. Ukrainian President Zelensky's top advisors spoke with White House counterparts on Wednesday and asked whether there'd be a decision to shut down Starlink services and what could be done to fix the situation, while a senior US official said the Trump administration had nothing to do with the alleged Starlink service constraints, but Ukrainian officials remained suspicious, according to sources cited by Axios's Ravid. UK Chancellor Healey called on other nations to stay the path regarding Russia sanctions and said a tighter ban on Russia-linked shipping services is needed. OTHER North Korea said it tested submarine-launched cruise missiles, according to KCNA. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Chancellor Healey said he will follow IMF advice to stick to deficit reduction plans in the October 28th Budget, while it was separately reported that Healey is preparing to take a hit on his fiscal headroom, according to sources cited by Sky News. BoE's chief economist Pill said they should not give the impression that a hike now would be at the start of a series of increases. French RN leader Le Pen said she believes that France is not in a position to finance Ukraine. ECB's Dolenc said he doesn't see second-round effects yet and the labour market isn't so tight anymore, while he said they must be vigilant on inflation data and are approaching a restrictive policy stance. Dolenc also stated that the ECB may not have to do much if markets tighten and has tools including TPI, which will be used if needed. ECB's Pereira said the rise in yields is more related to fiscal issues and the good news is that inflation is not spreading, while he added if inflation starts broadening, central banks will be forced to act. Furthermore, he said growth is surprising on the upside and wouldn't be surprised if it continued in the next few months.