Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 28th September 2026

US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately. US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal. Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA. Crude futures were lifted at the open; 10yr UST futures declined with yields higher across the curve, DXY traded mildly higher amid upside in oil and yields. APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open. Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Elderson & Lagarde, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Barkin. Supply from the Eurozone. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 -0.1% ASX 200 +0.1% Hang Seng +0.8% Shanghai Comp -1.8% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 +0.2% DAX Dec'26 +0.2% ES Dec'26 -0.4% NQ Dec'26 -0.7% FX DXY +0.1% (101.11) EUR/USD U/C (1.1386) USD/JPY +0.3% (157.76) GBP/USD U/C (1.3244) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -6.5 ticks Bund Dec'26 U/C US 10yr Yield 5.21% German 10yr Yield 3.61% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +1.8% Brent Dec'26 +1.7% Spot Gold -2.2% LME Copper -1.0% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.5% Ethereum -1.4% As of 06:20BST/01:20EDT Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly. US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios. US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn't want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%. US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue. Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran's conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy. Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran's direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating. IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles. Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran. Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News. Eight US Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian cruise missile attacked the ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by NBC News. Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait. Saudi Arabia conducted artillery and missile attacks on the border county of Saada, Yemen. Israeli PM Netanyahu visited Abu Dhabi on Sunday and met with the UAE's President. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks finished higher on Friday, with the Dow outperforming, while the Russell lagged. Most sectors closed in the green, led by Technology, Industrials, Consumer Staples and Financials, while Energy was the clear laggard alongside lower crude, followed by Communication Services and Real Estate. Macro focus centred on renewed US-Iran diplomatic optimism as reports suggested negotiations have moved into a more detailed technical phase, while the Iranian President signalled readiness for an agreement with the US, although Iranian sources subsequently pushed back on the prospect of imminent progress. SPX +0.51% at 7,743, NDX +0.42% at 30,608, DJI +0.93% at 51,834, RUT +0.07% at 2,838. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US and China said they agreed to a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff reduction and to launch a bilateral dialogue on AI, according to WSJ. White House said US and China confirmed an agreement regarding a USD 30bln vs USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut, while they will consider certain US products for import into China, and China will import US coal in 2027-2028. China Commerce Ministry said they look forward to expanding China-US collaboration in the coal sector and that the sides agreed to form an agricultural working group, while they have also agreed to set up a communication channel for AI incidents. (Newswires) China signalled it could allow some domestic companies such as ByteDance and Alibaba (9988 HK) to buy Nvidia (NVDA) chips built for high-end computers, according to The Information. NOTABLE HEADLINES US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged Fed policymakers to keep an open mind regarding interest rates, while he argued that AI-driven productivity gains and deregulation would help curb US inflation. Furthermore, he said that core inflation has been very stable and fell in recent months. US President Trump announced that he approved new fuel economy standards that terminate former President Biden's EV mandate, while he said the new standards will take the waste out of building cars in the US, which means lower prices, and noted that more than USD 100bln is being invested in American autos under his administration. US President Trump said he will talk about AI with Anthropic's CEO Amodei, who was having dinner at the White House on Sunday, while Trump said he would tell Amodei, "let's go, let's win." Bill Gates joined calls for AI safeguards, including legislation, while he stated that law enforcement and politicians need to get in discussion regarding safeguards and monitoring. Several commercial aircraft were not being allowed to land at King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia, following reports of explosions heard in Saudi Arabia. OpenAI agents bombarded a UN website with search requests and used a variety of aggressive techniques to access data on the system in June, according to a research report cited by WSJ. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets and following mixed geopolitical headlines over the weekend, in which US President Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but expects talks to resume this week. ASX 200 traded higher with gains led by strength in the top-weighted financial sector, but with the upside capped heading into a widely anticipated rate hike by the RBA tomorrow. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading an initial rally amid higher yields and as participants also digested firmer-than-expected Services PPI data, while former BoJ official Momma touted the possibility of the central bank hiking rates again in October. KOSPI suffered on return from a 4-day closure with notable selling in the local tech behemoths. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark edged higher, while the mainland was heavily pressured at the start of a holiday-shortened trading week following a slowdown in Industrial Profits, while the PBoC's liquidity efforts and a US-China agreement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff reduction framework failed to spur risk appetite. US equity futures retreated with Nasdaq futures leading the downside amid upside in oil and yields. European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Friday. FX DXY traded mildly higher amid upside in oil and yields, while there was also a continued boost to Fed rate hike bets and hawkish comments from Fed officials last Friday, including Hammack, who stated the Fed needs to make sure policy is at a restrictive stance to lower inflation and that she does not see current policy as restraining the economy. EUR/USD pared early losses and returned to flat territory with few notable drivers for the single currency, although there are a couple of ECB speakers scheduled later, including Lagarde. GBP/USD struggled for direction with the currency unmoved by UK PM Burnham signalling new taxes to pay for social care reform as he seeks a universal service for social care similar to NHS principles. USD/JPY continued its rebound from support around 157.00 amid higher oil prices and US yields. Antipodeans pared early losses ahead of a widely expected RBA rate hike tomorrow. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7399 vs Exp. 6.7085 (prev. 6.7489). SNB President Schlegel said the central bank is in a comfortable situation amid muted expectations for inflation in Switzerland. FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures declined with yields higher across the curve as the upside in oil stoked inflationary concerns and boosted Fed rate hike bets, while there was also hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials on Friday. Bund futures were contained and lingered beneath the 120.00 level amid a lack of pertinent drivers. 10yr JGB futures retreated amid higher oil prices and firmer-than-expected Japanese Services PPI data. COMMODITIES Crude futures were lifted at the open after US President Trump rejected Iran's 7-day peace deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although he expects talks to resume this week, while it was also reported that Yemeni Houthis targeted Riyadh and flight landings were disrupted at King Khalid International Airport following explosions heard in Saudi Arabia. US President Trump said he is thinking very seriously regarding a diesel export ban and may do it, while he blamed a diesel shortage on Ukraine hitting a Russian refinery and said a diesel export ban may cause a little increase in car gasoline. US Senator Cruz said late on Friday that the White House offered assurances that the Trump administration won’t ban US diesel exports. EU warned member states of a potential energy price crisis driven by the Middle East conflict, while it asked them to consider measures to reduce demand and continue filling gas storage ahead of winter. Spot gold slumped to beneath the USD 4,200/oz level amid higher yields and hawkish Fed bets, while the pressure coincided with a drop across the metals complex and was led by silver, which fell by more than 3%. Copper futures retreated alongside the selling in metals, with prices also not helped by the ultimately mixed risk appetite and weakness in its largest buyer following a slowdown in Chinese Industrial Profits. CRYPTO Bitcoin steadily retreated throughout most of the session, with prices back beneath the USD 84,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES BoJ Minutes from the July meeting stated members agreed financial conditions are accommodative and many noted that firms are steadily passing on rising raw material costs, keeping inflation elevated. Many members stated medium and long-term inflation expectations are heightening both for households and companies, while many members said price rises for consumer goods are likely to broaden from summer onwards and that underlying inflation is recently approaching 2%, requiring focus on stabilising price growth around that level. Furthermore, a few members said consumer prices are showing signs of rising, reflecting higher import costs, while one member said markets appear to expect BoJ to raise rates about once every six months, but added that hikes could come more quickly. South Korea‘s excess tax revenue could surpass KRW 50tln this year amid a stronger-than-expected semiconductor cycle, according to Yonhap. DATA RECAP Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Aug) 4.2% (prev. 11.2%) Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Aug YY) 15.7% (Prev. 17.6%) Japanese Services PPI YY (Aug) 3.7% vs Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump said he told Ukrainian President Zelensky to take it easy on refineries. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russian strikes overnight killed four in Ukraine and damaged a data centre in Kyiv. EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT. OTHER US President Trump said the Taiwan issue came up during meetings with Chinese President Xi, but noted that they didn’t talk about it too much and that Xi understands how he feels. Trump administration officials said the US has no plans to sell weapons to China after US ambassador to Beijing, Perdue, told an interviewer that President Trump at one point offered to sell US arms to Chinese President Xi, according to WSJ China’s Southern Theatre Command conducted a joint air and sea training exercise around the Scarborough Shoal on Sunday. Proposed US military base in Poland will cost as much as USD 4.4bln and could be open as early as 2029. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham hinted regarding new taxes to pay for social care reform and confirmed he wants care for the elderly and infirm to operate on NHS principles, while he didn’t deny that this would be paid for with tax increases. UK PM Burnham insisted he can deliver a real change for people in the country despite the nation facing severe economic headwinds, while he acknowledged they are facing a challenging set of circumstances at the budget. It was also reported that Burnham announced a new help-to-buy scheme to get first-time buyers on the housing ladder. UK PM Burnham suggested he could block plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport. British police arrested several suspects over a ‘major incident’ near an airbase used by the US, while US President Trump said the men arrested at the UK airbase were looking to do ‘big damage’. France is mulling a change to the way payroll tax deductions are calculated in its 2027 budget bill, which would effectively be a payroll tax increase for firms and could bring in an additional EUR 3bln-3.5bln. Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia premier Wuest, who is a key figure in Chancellor Merz’s CDU, criticised the government regarding the pace of economic reforms and said delays in enacting legislation contributed to the party’s disastrous performance in regional elections this month. ECB’s Sleijpen said the Netherlands needs to keep government spending in check and that state debt will increase if they do nothing, while he warned it would be highly irresponsible to borrow more, which is also not good for inflation.