[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks softer as Trump states Iran asked for a halt to strikes; spot gold moves a little higher

Crude benchmarks are on the backfoot, with mild underperformance in the WTI Dec’26 (-0.9%) vs Brent Dec’26 (-0.6%). The former currently holds towards the bottom end of a USD 95.34-96.39/bbl range, whilst the latter sits within a USD 104.91-105.94/bbl range. The mild underperformance seen in WTI is likely a bit of an unwind following yesterday’s relative outperformance, on the back of large weekly US headline inventory and as the US Treasury extended a sanctions waiver allowing Lukoil petrol stations to operate within the US. The geopolitical environment remains tense on three major fronts: 1) The US-Iran situation remains unresolved, though President Trump did mention that Iran requested a halt to attacks and that negotiations are ongoing. A factor which is likely weighing on the complex this morning. 2) Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continue to strike each other, and 3) Russia and Ukraine have continued to strike energy facilities, despite Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire. Spot gold currently trades within a USD 4,147-4,189/oz range, continuing to build on the prior day’s gains; the yellow metal now eyes its 21-DMA at USD 4.2k/oz. Strength today is facilitated by a slightly softer USD, which comes after Fed Chair Warsh avoided any guidance surrounding the October confab, which saw a slight paring of tightening bets. Base metals are rebounding from recent losses as global sentiment improves. 3M LME Copper (+1%) currently trades at the upper end of a USD 14,296-14,482/t range, and now eyes USD 14.5k/t.