US Market Wrap: Tech weakness offsets US/Iran diplomacy hopes but crude slumps ahead of midterms

SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up REAR VIEW: Iranian President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue; Possible follow up meeting with Iran and negotiators awaits; Vance touts Iran progress; Trump said "no" when asked about striking after the election; ISM manufacturing PMI tops forecasts; Kazakhstan reports a halt to Atyrau‑Samara oil flows; Ukraine maintains strikes on Russian refineries; ORCL slides after it unveils plans to raise USD 20bln via bond and stock sales; GOOGL set to raise EUR 6bln from euro bond sale; MRVL to acquire LITE in USD 115bln deal. - COMING UP: Data: Swiss CPI (Oct), US JOLTS (Sep). Events: RBA Policy Announcement, US Midterm Elections. Speakers: RBA's Bullock; BoC's Macklem, Rogers. Supply: UK, Germany. Earnings: Pfizer, AMD, Super Micro. WEEK IN FOCUS: Highlights include US Midterm Election, NFP, ISM PMIs, RBA, BoE and EZ CPI. Access full report here. WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Earnings season continues with highlights including AAPL, AMD, PLTR, and QCOM. Access full report here. MARKET WRAP US indices fell on Monday, driven primarily by a renewed afternoon sell-off in Tech, despite optimism surrounding US-Iran diplomacy. The majority of sectors finished in the green, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 also gained, highlighting positive market breadth. Tech and energy led the downside, while Health Care and Communication Services also finished lower. Within the tech sector, Oracle (ORCL) came under pressure after announcing a USD 10bln debt offering and USD 10bln equity offering, while Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) both tumbled after MRVL agreed to acquire LITE in a USD 115bln all-stock deal. On geopolitics, there were numerous constructive updates regarding US-Iran talks, with the latest being an ILNA report, citing Al Shanara, that Tehran and Washington are on the verge of a preliminary agreement. Meanwhile, US VP Vance also touted progress in talks with Iran. Oil prices tumbled c. 8% on the reports, while precious metals and Treasuries gained, and the Dollar softened. G10 FX performance was mixed against the Buck, with the Swissy the clear outperformer and the Aussie lagging ahead of the RBA decision overnight. In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI was the highlight, with the headline topping expectations and Prices Paid falling more than anticipated, while New Orders and Employment were little changed M/M. Attention now turns to Apple (AAPL) earnings after-hours, which could provide the next catalyst for the tech sector following largely underwhelming earnings in the space this quarter, ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections. US DATA ISM MANUFACTURING PMI: The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 from 54.5, above the 54.6 forecast. New Orders rose to 55.5 from 55.3. Production rose 2.3 points to 59.0, the highest since November 2021. Backlog of Orders fell 1.8 points to 54.6, while the Supplier Deliveries Index edged up 0.1 points to 59.1 (a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries, which can reflect stronger demand or supply constraints). Regarding employment and prices, the Employment Index eased to 52.4 from 52.7, while the Prices Index declined to 75.2 from 77.9. Within the report, general sentiment deteriorated for a third consecutive month, with 34% of comments positive and 66% negative. Among negative comments, pricing volatility was mentioned in 62%, longer lead times in 41%, tariffs in 25%, and the Iran war in 21%, with most comments citing multiple factors. Regarding growth in the manufacturing economy, 6% of the sector's GDP contracted in October, compared with 2% in September, while 6% was in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI of 45 or lower), also up from 2% in September. Following the report and construction spending data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 was revised up to 3.7% from its initial 3.2% estimate. ING writes that "The manufacturing sector continues to power ahead, boosted by a strong US economy. Other factors are supportive. There is a clear split in performance between fast-growing tech, pharma and transportation sectors versus more labour-intensive, commoditised sectors. Construction activity suggests interest-rate-sensitive sectors are struggling". FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 7 TICKS HIGHER AT 106-27+ Yields drop as oil prices slide on US/Iran diplomacy hopes. At settlement, 2-year -0.7bps at 4.587%, 3-year -1.4bps at 4.650%, 5-year -2.7bps at 4.700%, 7-year -2.8bps at 4.790%, 10-year -2.7bps at 4.906%, 20-year -2.9bps at 5.312%, 30-year -2.8bps at 5.281%. THE DAY: Treasuries were bid across the curve on Monday, with the upside supported by a sizeable decline in crude prices. The overall tone between the US and Iran was positive, with hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough following Qatari mediation. Meanwhile, Iranian President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue. Lower oil prices helped push yields down across the curve, with the curve flattening as longer-dated yields led the move. Attention now turns to Tuesday's midterm elections, although developments in US/Iran talks will also remain key. Economic data on Monday saw the ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, while the prices and employment indices both declined, providing some relief on inflation and labour market pressures despite stronger manufacturing activity. However, prices remained elevated, while employment continued to signal expansion. There was little reaction to the data. Meanwhile, the US Treasury released its latest quarterly financing estimates, projecting borrowing of USD 618bln in Q4, below the USD 628bln previously expected, while Q1 borrowing is projected at USD 800bln, assuming an end-March cash balance of USD 1tln. Attention turns to Wednesday's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, particularly any changes to issuance guidance and commentary on buyback operations. The decline in yields was potentially limited by rate-lock selling amid a busy corporate issuance calendar on Monday, with Oracle (ORCL) entering the market with a USD 10bln debt offering alongside a USD 10bln equity offering. Meanwhile, Meta (META) is reportedly planning a five-part USD-denominated and six-part EUR-denominated bond sale, while Alphabet (GOOGL) also launched a EUR 6bln bond offering. Supply US to sell USD 100bln of 6-week bills on November 3rd. US sold 3-month bills at high-rate 4.040%, B/C 2.88x; sold 6-month bills at high-rate 4.150%, B/C 2.89x STIRS / OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 18.7bps (prev. 17.6bps), Mar 39.7bps (prev. 37.1bps) EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 109bln (prev. USD 117bln) on October 30th SOFR at 3.95% (prev. 3.94%), volumes at USD 3.175tln (prev. USD 3.145tln) on October 30th NY Fed RRP op demand at 5.09bln (prev. 4.38bln) across 6 counterparties (prev. 3) on November 2nd CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 7.66 LOWER AT 96.46/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLES USD 8.66 LOWER AT 104.77/BBL The crude complex saw notable weakness amid hopes for diplomacy between the US and Iran, ahead of the midterms on Tuesday. Over the weekend, Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, and Axios reported that US President Trump favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed strikes. Continuing to add to the downside on Monday was an ISNA report that Iranian President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue. Further adding to the constructive picture, Al Jadeed reported, citing a diplomatic source, that a breakthrough in US-Iranian negotiations had been achieved after Qatari mediation overcame procedural obstacles. Benchmarks fell to lows after ILNA later reported, citing Al Shanara, that Tehran and Washington are on the verge of a preliminary agreement. However, Fars, citing sources, said that the exchange of messages between Iran and the US through intermediaries is a common thing and no new developments have occurred in this regard. Looking ahead, focus will be on further Middle East updates, but also the midterms, with numerous reports in recent weeks suggesting that any renewed strikes on Iran could come after the vote. For the record, WTI traded between USD 95.15/bbl and USD 102.75/bbl, while Brent hit a low of USD 103.28/bbl vs. a high of USD 112.41/bbl. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX -0.51% at 7,541, NDX -1.39% at 27,990, DJI +0.41% at 51,989, RUT -0.21% at 2,806 SECTORS: Consumer Discretionary +2.25%, Materials +1.83%, Financials +1.76%, Consumer Staples +1.75%, Industrials +1.37%, Real Estate +1.02%, Utilities +0.53%, Health -0.17%, Communication Services -0.21%, Technology -2.66%, Energy -3.97% EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.78% at 6,179, Dax 40 +0.64% at 25,983, FTSE 100 +0.29% at 10,761, CAC 40 +0.98% at 8,048, FTSE MIB +0.90% at 49,948, IBEX 35 +1.71% at 18,972, PSI -0.26% at 9,252, SMI -0.04% at 14,804, AEX -0.17% at 1,133 STOCK SPECIFICS: EchoStar (ECHO): SpaceX (SPCX) is in talks to purchase EchoStar's Boost Mobile or use its network; T-Mobile US (TMUS), Verizon (VZ). Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY): Sees Dec.-Q op. profit of ¥2tln (prev. 1.99tln), raising concerns over slowing AI-driven memory demand. Oracle (ORCL): Files to offer $10bln in common stock and $10bln in debt. Okta (OKTA): Will join the S&P 500, replacing Kenvue (KVUE), effective BMO on Nov. 4th. Check Point Software (CHKP): Rev. missed. Tower Semiconductor (TSEM): Headline metrics topped exp. w/ strong next Q rev. guide. Marriott International (MAR): Solid Q report alongside raising next Q & FY view. Estée Lauder (EL): Top & bottom line beat alongside lifting FY27 outlook. IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX): Q report impressed as headline metrics topped & lifted FY guidance. CrowdStrike (CRWD): Upgraded at Deutsche Bank. OpenAI has signed deals with ad software firms Magnite (MGNI) and PubMatic (PUBM) to fill unused ad space on ChatGPT, according to The Information citing sources. FX The Dollar saw slight losses amid the initial broader risk-on environment given the more constructive US/Iran Middle East updates, and following oil weakness. Currency-specific newsflow was fairly light, with ISM Manufacturing PMI the highlight; the headline topped expectations, prices paid fell more than anticipated, while new orders and employment were little changed M/M. Fed wise, neither of the Fed’s hawkish dissenters has spoken yet, while attention now turns to the midterms on Tuesday. Before then, Apple reports earnings after-hours on Monday, and focus remains on tech after last month's sell-off. ING writes that the 9% Nasdaq sell-off has driven a softening in short-dated US rates, and any further large sell-off in this sector is probably the biggest risk to long Dollar positioning.   G10 FX performance was mixed vs. the Buck, with the Swissy the clear gainer, followed by the EUR and GBP, while the Aussie was the distinct laggard, with the Yen and CAD following behind. The Swiss Franc was likely supported by the lower yield environment, and the Euro managed to shrug off the protests in Germany and also an unscheduled Fitch outlook downgrade for France. Looking at the underperformers, the Loonie was likely hit by the tumbling crude prices, and the Aussie may have weakened following disappointing Chinese PMI metrics while attention turns to the RBA overnight. For the Yen, the BoJ said overnight that rate hikes are likely to ease inflation and support consumption, adding underlying inflation has picked up to about 2% and has gradually become embedded around that level in recent years.