Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News - 25th September 2026

US stocks ultimately finished the day relatively flat in choppy trade, in which the SPX, NDX and RUT were flat, while the DJI sold off and the RSP dropped. Sectors were predominantly lower, with Utilities, Materials and Staples lagging, while Communication Services, Health Care and Energy outperformed. The stock highlight was Oracle (ORCL), which tumbled after declaring force majeure at its New Mexico data centre, also weighing on Bloom Energy (BE) and Blue Owl (OWL), given both have exposure to the project. ORCL pared the majority of its losses but still closed lower by 3%. USD strengthened against its peers for a fourth consecutive day this week, again supported by continued inflation concerns as US yields and oil prices marched higher. Reports of US-Iran progress continue to surface; however, tangible progress is yet to be observed. The latest indication came via an Iranian official speaking to Reuters, who said a phased deal could see Iran resume free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its blockade and potentially unfreezing Iranian assets. However, the official described US demands as excessive and the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution as “extremely low”, while an Iranian journalist claimed the report was false. Looking ahead, highlights include UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Thailand Trade Data, BoJ Core CPI, Supply from Australia and Japan, Holiday Closures in South Korea, Taiwan & Mainland China. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 Flat Nasdaq Comp. Flat DJIA -0.3% Russell 2000 -0.1% ES Dec'26 -0.2% RTY Dec'26 -0.2% NQ Dec'26 -0.1% YM Dec'26 -0.4% FX DXY +0.1% (101.26) EUR/USD -0.1% USD/JPY +0.4% GBP/USD -0.2% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -13.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -60 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.21% German 10yr Yield 3.61% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 +2.38% Brent Nov'26 +3.5% Spot Gold -0.2% LME Copper +0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin Flat Ethereum +0.2% As of 21:50BST/16:50EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Thailand Trade Data, BoJ Core CPI, Supply from Australia and Japan, Holiday Closures in South Korea, Taiwan & Mainland China. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT White House sources said President Trump remains open to dialogue with Iran, according to Iraq's Al Iraqiya. US and Iran reportedly discussed a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the US blockade, according to Reuters citing sources, while a senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets. Iranian journalist Mohammad Ghaderi said the Reuters report is false and its goal is to control the price of oil, while there are no negotiations underway and Iran's position remains unchanged that the US must fulfil the stipulated conditions in a single step so that the Strait of Hormuz can be opened under Iranian control. Iranian President Pezeshkian said he met with the Pakistani PM, adding that additional information will be published "soon". Iranian President Pezeshkian said Tehran wants a deal with the US before midterm elections, while he stated, “We wish Americans to return to the MOU before the midterms", according to NBC. Iranian Security Council Secretary Rezaei said a new escalation from the US could open a second front alongside the Strait of Hormuz, in Bab El-Mandeb. Senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Major General Safavi said linking the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, including the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, could change the battlefield, adding, "The scope of the war may expand to the Indian Ocean and other regions". Safavi said, "I must state here that if the Americans start a new war, a new scene (front) centered on the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait may open before their eyes". Iran's Major General Safavi said the Strait of Hormuz will never reopen in its prior form, according to Irib, adding that Iran and Oman had a mechanism for managing the Strait, which was sabotaged by the US. Iran will fully manage and control the Strait. US Senate rejected a resolution curbing Trump's Iran war powers. Chinese President Xi urged the US and Iran to return to resolving issues through negotiation as soon as possible, according to Xinhua. French President Macron said France will send military means and soldiers to protect the Red Sea route. Israeli source said Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities again if Iran crosses the red lines, according to Al Hadath, adding that this would be with or without US involvement. Israeli senior official said the chance of an agreement between the US and Iran is 'small' but not impossible, while a US source said they are not sure that the Revolutionary Guards will want to give Trump a "victory" before the midterm elections. Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said it intercepted six ballistic missiles launched by Iran-backed Houthis. Yemen’s Houthis said they attacked Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and attacked a “sensitive target” in Riyadh. Houthi spokesperson said they will continue to enforce the equation of "a siege for a siege" and "an escalation for an escalation", adding that they carried out a "preemptive, qualitative, and extensive operation using dozens of ballistic missiles and drones" in Jizan. US TRADE US stocks ultimately finished the day relatively flat in choppy trade, in which the SPX, NDX and RUT were flat, while the DJI sold off and the RSP dropped. Sectors were predominantly lower, with Utilities, Materials and Staples lagging, while Communication Services, Health Care and Energy outperformed. The stock highlight was Oracle (ORCL), which tumbled after declaring force majeure at its New Mexico data centre, also weighing on Bloom Energy (BE) and Blue Owl (OWL), given both have exposure to the project. ORCL pared the majority of its losses but still closed lower by 3%. SPX -0.02% at 7,704, NDX +0.03% at 30,479, DJI -0.31% at 51,355, RUT -0.11% at 2,836. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump welcomed Chinese President Xi to the White House and described his relationship with Xi as "truly great". Trump said they are encouraging a more balanced trading relationship with China and will discuss security, tech and AI, while adding that decisions made today can promote peace. US President Trump said it is a big day with Chinese President Xi, adding that Super Intelligence will be a big topic of discussion, but he wants to leave it exactly where it is, and that is also China's position, saying "our guardrail is the DoJ". US President Trump said following his meeting with Chinese President Xi that they had a great meeting, while Xinhua reported that the leaders held a small-scale exchange. Chinese President Xi said US-China interests must be aligned and that they are willing to cooperate to counter narcotics, while China will be sending two pandas to the US. US Democratic Senator Slotkin said she would try to get approval for a Chinese car ban on Thursday and believed only one Senator opposes it. President of the European Parliament said Germany should seek a deal with the Trump administration to resolve their trade dispute around drug pricing, according to Politico. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) said price stability is the responsibility of central banks, adding that inflation remains elevated amid solid output demand, inflation risk is tilted towards the upside, and supply shocks are a notable challenge for Fed policy right now. Hammack said the longer inflation remains high, the harder it is to bring it back to target, while the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain, and the labour market remains close to full employment. Fed's Williams (voter) said the big challenge is inflation and they need to get it back to target in a timely manner, adding that it is reasonable to see another rate hike by year-end. Williams said he is seeing pretty strong demand from AI, the economy has been remarkably resilient, and downside risk to achieving maximum employment has receded. Time for explicit or very direct forward guidance is over. Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said capacity utilisation is good, but not overheated, adding that inflation's persistence is clearer this summer. Barkin said the labour market is stable, but new job growth remains slow. Fed's Paulson (2026 voter) said the September inflation numbers drove the rate hike. Paulson said the labour market is stable, the economy is resilient and showing signs of increased momentum, underlying inflation remains stubbornly high, and AI buildout is helping drive inflation pressures. Treasury Buyback (Liquidity support, 20-30-year nominal coupons, max USD 6bln): Accepted USD 4.08bln of USD 10.47bln offers and 12 of 35 eligible securities. DATA RECAP US Current Account (Q2) -246B vs. Exp. -255B (Prev. -212.6B) US Building Permits Final (Aug) 1.403M vs. Exp. 1.394M (Prev. 1.433M) US Building Permits Final (Aug MM) -2.1% vs. Exp. -2.7% (Prev. 4.3%) US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/19) 197.0K vs. Exp. 201K (Prev. 198.0K) US Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep/12) 1719.0K vs. Exp. 1750K (Prev. 1717.0K) FX USD finished higher against its peers for a fourth consecutive day this week, again supported by continued inflation concerns as US yields and oil prices marched higher. Reports of US-Iran progress continue to surface; however, tangible progress is yet to be observed. The latest indication came via an Iranian official speaking to Reuters, who said a phased deal could see Iran resume free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its blockade and potentially unfreezing Iranian assets. However, the official described US demands as excessive and the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution as “extremely low”, while an Iranian journalist claimed the report was false. EUR traded relatively sideways after failing to reclaim the 1.1400 handle, while there were several central bank rate decisions across the continent, including from the SNB, which kept rates unchanged at 0% and noted it remains “willing to be active in the foreign exchange market”, underpinning EUR/CHF. GBP trickled lower on the day but with downside somewhat cushioned by support around the 1.3200 level. JPY remained pressured with USD/JPY testing the 159.00 level to the upside amid firmer US yields and continued upside in oil. Mexican Interest Rate Decision 6.50% vs. Exp. 6.50% (Prev. 6.50%); decision was unanimous Looking ahead, the Governing Board will make its decisions considering the ongoing disinflation process and expected behaviour of its determinants, including exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, slack conditions and inflation expectations. (prev. Governing Board estimates that it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level). Norges Bank raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.50% (prev. 4.25%), saying "Inflation has been above target for several years. By raising the policy rate, we are helping to reduce inflation. It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time". Governor Bache said, "The Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target within a reasonable time horizon". Riksbank held its policy rates at 1.75% as expected, with the Board therefore assessing that the policy rate should be raised more going forward than projected in the June forecast, for inflation to stabilise around 2%; hikes are expected to begin this year. Swiss SNB kept its interest rate at 0.00% as expected (prev. 0.00%), saying it is willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions (prev. "increased willingness"). Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. FIXED INCOME T-notes settled lower with price action choppy on hawkish Fed speak, volatile geopolitics, a weak auction and an underwhelming buyback operation. COMMODITIES Oil prices settled higher despite a report pointing towards a potential US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade, as many doubts and hurdles still remain, while a journalist also refuted the report. Saudi East-West pipeline is reportedly building up crude volumes, though tanker loading has yet to resume at Yanbu. Saudi Aramco CEO said they are studying a fourth and a fifth route for crude oil exports, noting that the Co. can restore disrupted operations within days. US Energy Secretary Wright has contacted executives at several major US refiners to gauge support for voluntarily restricting diesel exports, according to Reuters, citing three people familiar with the discussions. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Kremlin said no decision has yet been made on a December summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, while it added that discussing a possible agenda is premature. Kremlin reiterated that Russia seeks a peaceful settlement on the Ukraine issue rather than a temporary ceasefire. French President Macron said France could face attacks similar to the failed Leipzig attack, adding that Russia is multiplying hostile and criminal acts against European nations. All sensitive sites in France are subject to additional protection. OTHER Chinese President Xi said China hopes the US adheres to the correct position of opposing Taiwan independence, and handles the Taiwan question with prudence, according to Xinhua. US President Trump will reportedly make a decision shortly on a new Taiwan arms package. US President Trump's administration has been quietly holding talks with China about its rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal amid doubts over Beijing's compliance with a 30-year test ban, according to US officials cited by WSJ. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES PBoC said it will comprehensively use and timely adjust monetary policy tools to keep liquidity ample, while stepping up counter-cyclical adjustments. Japan reportedly plans to finance economic security spending mainly through "bridging bonds", reducing the need for the issuance of deficit bonds, according to Nikkei citing sources. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham is under growing pressure to push the Trump administration to scrap plans to restrict diesel exports, while the PM did not raise the issue with Trump when they had their meeting on Tuesday in New York, according to sources. BoE's Breeden said it is not at all obvious that there is a path to lower energy prices, adding that decisions are meeting-by-meeting. Breeden said indirect pass-through of energy price rises is limited so far, suggesting slack in the economy. Policy began at a point where it is restrictive, unlike in 2022. The main question is whether they need to do a first move, i.e. hike, with more uncertainty on whether lots more would need to be done thereafter. BoE's Dhingra said most of the financial conditions have done a lot of tightening work already in the UK. Dhingra said she is encouraged by what pricing is doing, the labour market looks pretty weak, winter energy prices will be critical for second-round effects, and UK medium-term inflation expectations are similar to the EZ, which is not a cause for concern. BoE's Lombardelli said policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if elevated energy prices persist. Lombardelli said the absence of evidence of second-round effects tells us something, but not much; it is likely still too early to see evidence in the data, especially given indirect effects are coming through more slowly than expected. Policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if elevated energy prices persist, absent clear evidence of disinflation or weaker activity. ECB's Radev said the ECB is not on a pre-determined path, reiterating ECB risk language around growth and inflation. ECB's Schnabel will resign to take a senior role at the IMF, stepping down from her position on 3rd January 2027. Dutch PM said many countries in the region would find Klaas Knot to be an ideal candidate for the ECB President role. DATA RECAP German Ifo Business Climate (Sep) 89.9 vs. Exp. 89 (Prev. 88.8) German Ifo Current Conditions (Sep) 89.5 vs. Exp. 89 (Prev. 88.5) German Ifo Expectations (Sep) 90.4 vs. Exp. 89.3 (Prev. 89.1)