[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY consolidates after Friday's jobs-driven upside; NZD outperforms after the weekend's elections
ORIGINAL · Newsquawk[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY consolidates after Friday's jobs-driven upside; NZD outperforms after the weekend's electionsRead originalHide original
DXY is slightly softer within a narrow 101.87-102.28 range, consolidating after Friday's upside on the strong US jobs report; market pricing sees a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December. The index currently holds within Friday's 101.49-102.36 range, above its 21 and 50DMAs (101.97 and 101.12). The US docket is relatively busy this afternoon, with Fed's Goolsbee and Barkin, the NY Fed SCE and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow, alongside a 3-year note auction. EUR/USD is firmer at the top end of a 1.1134-1.1192 range, back above 1.1140, though it remains beneath its 21DMA at 1.1189. Outgoing ECB President Lagarde told Japanese press that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come, while reiterating that the ECB does not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in its projections. A light EZ docket, with German Trade Balance doing little to shift the currency this morning. GBP/USD is firmer at the top of a 1.3340-1.3419 range, having bounced from 1.3340, and now sits above its 21 and 50DMAs (1.3348 and 1.3357), testing its 100DMA at 1.3392. EUR/GBP trades within a 0.8337-0.8349 range. Focus this week is on Thursday's UK GDP, while BoE Governor Bailey speaks later today at 17:25GMT. USD/JPY is softer within a 157.87-158.53 range, holding beneath its 200DMA at 158.66. Japan's MoF confirmed three yen-buying interventions over the summer totalling JPY 15.4tln. Antipodeans are firmer, supported by the upbeat risk tone in Asia and strength in precious metals. NZD/USD outperforms peers and trades within a 0.5554-0.5603 range, above Friday's 0.5599 high, helped by the weekend's elections, where PM Luxon's National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes counted. AUD/USD is firmer within a 0.6854-0.6905 range, though beneath its 21DMA at 0.6983. USD/CNH trades flat within a 6.6660-6.6744 range, with little reaction to China's October inflation metrics, in which CPI was softer at 0.7% Y/Y (exp. 0.8%), while PPI accelerated to 5.7% (exp. 5.3%).
The update reported a softer DXY, firmer antipodean currencies, mixed euro and sterling moves, a softer yen, and flat USD/CNH; election-count details differed between reports.
News detail
DXY is slightly softer within a narrow 101.87-102.28 range, consolidating after Friday's upside on the strong US jobs report; market pricing sees a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December. The index currently holds within Friday's 101.49-102.36 range, above its 21 and 50DMAs (101.97 and 101.12). The US docket is relatively busy this afternoon, with Fed's Goolsbee and Barkin, the NY Fed SCE and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow, alongside a 3-year note auction. EUR/USD is firmer at the top end of a 1.1134-1.1192 range, back above 1.1140, though it remains beneath its 21DMA at 1.1189. Outgoing ECB President Lagarde told Japanese press that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come, while reiterating that the ECB does not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in its projections. A light EZ docket, with German Trade Balance doing little to shift the currency this morning. GBP/USD is firmer at the top of a 1.3340-1.3419 range, having bounced from 1.3340, and now sits above its 21 and 50DMAs (1.3348 and 1.3357), testing its 100DMA at 1.3392. EUR/GBP trades within a 0.8337-0.8349 range. Focus this week is on Thursday's UK GDP, while BoE Governor Bailey speaks later today at 17:25GMT. USD/JPY is softer within a 157.87-158.53 range, holding beneath its 200DMA at 158.66. Japan's MoF confirmed three yen-buying interventions over the summer totalling JPY 15.4tln. Antipodeans are firmer, supported by the upbeat risk tone in Asia and strength in precious metals. NZD/USD outperforms peers and trades within a 0.5554-0.5603 range, above Friday's 0.5599 high, helped by the weekend's elections, where PM Luxon's National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes counted. AUD/USD is firmer within a 0.6854-0.6905 range, though beneath its 21DMA at 0.6983. USD/CNH trades flat within a 6.6660-6.6744 range, with little reaction to China's October inflation metrics, in which CPI was softer at 0.7% Y/Y (exp. 0.8%), while PPI accelerated to 5.7% (exp. 5.3%).
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