[MARKET ANALYSIS] ECB Review: A mixed/hawkish October "no hiking" meeting, with Lagarde pointing to a December hike
ORIGINAL · Newsquawk[MARKET ANALYSIS] ECB Review: A mixed/hawkish October "no hiking" meeting, with Lagarde pointing to a December hikeRead originalHide original
Overall, a hawkish skew from the ECB with Lagarde setting participants up for a December hike. However, the growth side of the equation and tightening of financial conditions are limiting factors for further action. From the decision, the main takeaways were slightly dovish. Given the lack of adjustment to forward guidance, and while energy was discussed, there was no overt acknowledgement of the significant upside seen recently, with Dutch TTF surpassing EUR 100/MWh in recent sessions. Particularly with the ECB still not seeing second-round effects, and as financial conditions generally have tightened, essentially doing some of the work for the ECB, and thus reducing the need for the ECB to tighten further. Further, the statement highlights the growth side of the equation, and the expected hit to that from energy; a point which, alongside the lack of second-round effects, is another somewhat dovish takeaway. From Lagarde, the press conference was hawkish. The initial point came on wage pressures, describing them as "remain moderate" vs the prev. "do not show a material response", and then, as Lagarde spoke on the early stages of the pricing chain, pointing to upward pressures. Remarks which sparked a modest hawkish reaction. Thereafter, she outlined that the council debated whether a hike was appropriate, and noted the situation they are in could have warranted a hike, describing the October meeting as a "no hiking" decision. However, the decision to hold was unanimous, and policymakers believe they are in a good position. In short, the ECB is on track to take a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent decision to hike in December. But, the outlook thereafter is less certain and likely dependent on the progression of data and financial conditions. On the latter point, focus firmly on France, and while Lagarde noted they have the tools to act (i.e. TPI), she avoided any specific comment on the French situation.
The ECB held rates unchanged, citing energy-related inflation and growth risks and tighter financial conditions; the supplied analysis sees a December hike as possible, not certain.
News detail
Overall, a hawkish skew from the ECB with Lagarde setting participants up for a December hike. However, the growth side of the equation and tightening of financial conditions are limiting factors for further action. From the decision, the main takeaways were slightly dovish. Given the lack of adjustment to forward guidance, and while energy was discussed, there was no overt acknowledgement of the significant upside seen recently, with Dutch TTF surpassing EUR 100/MWh in recent sessions. Particularly with the ECB still not seeing second-round effects, and as financial conditions generally have tightened, essentially doing some of the work for the ECB, and thus reducing the need for the ECB to tighten further. Further, the statement highlights the growth side of the equation, and the expected hit to that from energy; a point which, alongside the lack of second-round effects, is another somewhat dovish takeaway. From Lagarde, the press conference was hawkish. The initial point came on wage pressures, describing them as "remain moderate" vs the prev. "do not show a material response", and then, as Lagarde spoke on the early stages of the pricing chain, pointing to upward pressures. Remarks which sparked a modest hawkish reaction. Thereafter, she outlined that the council debated whether a hike was appropriate, and noted the situation they are in could have warranted a hike, describing the October meeting as a "no hiking" decision. However, the decision to hold was unanimous, and policymakers believe they are in a good position. In short, the ECB is on track to take a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent decision to hike in December. But, the outlook thereafter is less certain and likely dependent on the progression of data and financial conditions. On the latter point, focus firmly on France, and while Lagarde noted they have the tools to act (i.e. TPI), she avoided any specific comment on the French situation.
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