Newsquawk US Market Wrap - Hawkish Waller and hot CPI ignite Fed 50bps rate hike bets

SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold down. REAR VIEW: Hotter-than-expected US CPI; Fed's Waller touts possible 50bps hike in December; Logan said it is clear that the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes; Iran's Security Chief pours some cold water on recent positive Iran/US developments; NVDA CEO's affair with alleged Chinese spy reportedly facilitated the sale of at least $7.5bln in chips to China; Anthropic targets $1tln market value in its IPO; Iran reportedly agreed to US demands to cut highly enriched uranium level; Weak 10yr US auction. COMING UP: Holiday: US Veterans Day; Canadian Remembrance Day Data: German Final Inflation (Oct), Japanese PPI (Oct) Events: OPEC MOMR Speakers: RBA’s Baker; ECB's Cipollone, Lagarde Supply: Australia, Germany, UK Earnings: Siemens Energy. MARKET WRAP The main focus on Tuesday was the sharp hawkish repricing following Fed Governor Waller's comments and the hotter-than-expected October CPI report, reigniting the debate around a potential 50bps Fed hike in December. Waller said further tightening is needed sooner rather than later and suggested a half-point hike may be warranted if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The subsequent report showed core CPI rising 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast, while headline CPI rose 0.4%, also above expectations. Money markets now price c. 27.5bps of tightening in December, implying a fully priced 25bps hike and a 10% probability of a 50bps move. Fed's Logan added to the hawkish rhetoric, calling for at least two further 25bps hikes, while Schmid described current policy as fairly accommodative. Bowman, who was more dovish than peers, said there is still more work to do, but financial conditions have tightened and the Fed must weigh costs of additional policy tightening. US equities were lower, albeit closing off lows, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 underperforming amid the hawkish Fed repricing. Nvidia (NVDA) extended its recent losses amid reports surrounding CEO Jensen Huang's affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Sectors were mixed, with Technology lagging while Financials and Consumer Discretionary outperformed. Treasuries saw a sharp bear flattening as front-end yields led the move higher in response to Waller and US CPI. The 10-year Treasury auction was also notably weak, tailing by 1bp with a sharp decline in indirect participation, although it had little additional market impact. Crude was lower amid continued optimism surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, although conflicting headlines prompted volatility. Further reports that Iran had agreed to reduce its highly enriched uranium levels initially weighed on prices, before Iranian Security Chief Rezaei disputed claims of ongoing negotiations and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Iran's conditions were met. Qatar reportedly secured at least two weeks to pursue diplomatic efforts, although significant differences remain. The Dollar strengthened against all G10 peers, with the JPY and CHF pressured by widening rate differentials following the rise in US yields, while the AUD lagged amid weaker risk sentiment. Gold was also pressured on the firmer yield environment. US CPI: US CPI was hotter than expected in October, with headline prices rising 0.4% M/M (0.350% to three decimal places), above the 0.3% forecast but cooling from the prior 0.649%. Shelter prices rose 0.3%, accounting for over 30% of the headline increase, while food prices increased 0.5% and energy prices rose 0.7%, slowing substantially from September's 5.2% increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast and in line with the prior 0.3%. Within the core components, increases were seen in recreation, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and education, while used cars and trucks and communication were among the few major categories to decline. The hotter core print followed hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller earlier in the session, where the Governor said further policy tightening will be needed and that a 50bps hike in December may be warranted if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The combination of Waller's comments and the inflation data has reignited discussion around the possibility of a larger December hike. Money markets now fully price a 25bps increase, with around a 10% probability of a 50bps move. This is the final CPI report ahead of the December 9th FOMC meeting, with November CPI not due until December 10th. However, policymakers will still receive October PPI on Friday and PCE data on November 25th. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the October CPI report appears consistent with a 0.35-0.40% M/M increase in core PCE and an acceleration in the annual core PCE rate to 3.3% from 3.1% in September. WALLER (voter): Gave particularly hawkish remarks before the hotter-than-expected US CPI report. The influential Governor said further policy tightening will be needed and that a half-point rate hike may be warranted in December if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. On rates, he added that he would support a quarter-point hike in December even if October CPI improved. Note that core CPI M/M printed 0.3%. On the October hold, Waller said he had been willing to wait before tightening further. On inflation, he said it is too high, that September’s inflation data were bad, and that he is particularly concerned about the breadth of price increases. In slightly later remarks, still before the CPI release, he said that at a minimum the Fed needs to take back the three insurance cuts. However, he said he is not “super hawkish”, does not want to “slam” the US economy, and is not looking to tighten by 150bps or 200bps. Waller added that he does not think his Fed colleagues believe rates are in the right place. BOWMAN (voter, Dove): Said persistent inflation and improving labour market conditions suggest the Fed still has work to do to restore price stability, although policymakers must weigh the costs of further tightening given that financial conditions have already tightened, a more cautious tone than that of Waller and Logan today. On inflation, Bowman noted that recent CPI data suggest price pressures could persist, with core PCE inflation likely rising to 3.3% in October amid higher energy prices and AI-related demand. However, she expects inflation to move closer to the 2% target next year as these shocks unwind. Regarding the economy, Bowman highlighted that growth has gained momentum this year, while the labour market has improved but is not yet tight enough to generate additional inflationary pressures. She also warned of the risk of a significant correction in equity valuations. LOGAN (2026 voter, Hawk): Reiterated that the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes to bring policy to a modestly restrictive level, suggesting that it may be possible to tighten more rapidly this winter than previously, before pausing to assess whether further action is necessary. She argued that monetary policy remains accommodative and is contributing to inflationary pressures, with estimates suggesting the real Fed funds rate is just 78bps and the policy rate is at least 50bps below a modestly restrictive level. While favouring gradual adjustments to minimise the risk of an unnecessary economic slowdown, Logan stressed the importance of promptly balancing inflation and employment risks. On inflation, she warned that price pressures extend beyond tariffs and are trending meaningfully above the 2% target, with hotter-than-expected CPI raising concerns about a potential acceleration in PCE inflation. Regarding the economy, Logan highlighted strong growth, solid consumer spending and robust business investment, while the labour market remains balanced and is showing signs of tightening. She added that higher bond yields signal investors believe the Fed has further work to do, rather than necessarily providing an independent restraint on economic activity. SCHMID (2028 voter): Said there are some concerning trends in prices beneath the broader energy story. The Kansas City Fed President said he did not think policy was restrictive last year and believes it is fairly accommodative today. In line with his colleagues, he noted that inflation is top of mind, adding that there are a lot of interesting data points between now and the Fed’s December meeting. FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 26 TICKS LOWER AT 106-08 Yield curve flattens after hawkish Waller and hot CPI reignite 50bps debate. At settlement, 2-year +17.2bps at 4.738%, 3-year +15.6bps at 4.780%, 5-year +13.0bps at 4.812%, 7-year +11.5bps at 4.885%, 10-year +10.1bps at 4.985%, 20-year +8.1bps at 5.388%, 30-year +7.7bps at 5.352%. THE DAY: There was a notable hawkish repricing on Tuesday, primarily driven by commentary from Fed Governor Waller and the hotter-than-expected October CPI report. Waller stated that, at a minimum, the Fed needs to reverse its three previous interest rate cuts, although he stressed that he is not "super hawkish", does not want to slam the economy and is not looking to tighten policy by 150-200bps. He also suggested that his Fed colleagues do not believe rates are currently at the appropriate level. Waller ignited the debate around a potential 50bps December hike, stating that further tightening is needed sooner rather than later to return inflation to target, and that a half-point increase may be warranted if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. He added that he would support a 25bps hike even if the October CPI report showed improvement. The October CPI report subsequently came in hotter than expected, with core prices rising 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast, reinforcing speculation around a larger December hike. Money markets shifted hawkishly following the developments, with approximately 27.5bps of tightening now priced for December, implying a fully priced 25bps hike and around a 10% probability of a 50bps move. The repricing prompted a notable bear flattening of the Treasury yield curve, with the 2-year yield rising as much as 20bps intraday, while the 30-year rose around 10bps at its highs. Elsewhere, Fed's Logan (2026 voter, Hawk) said the Fed clearly needs at least two further 25bps hikes and that it may be possible to raise rates more rapidly this winter than it has so far. However, she suggested it would make sense to pause after two additional hikes to assess whether further tightening is necessary. Schmid (2028 voter, Hawk) also struck a hawkish tone, describing current policy as fairly accommodative and highlighting concerning underlying inflation trends beyond the energy-driven pressures. The USD 42bln 10-year Treasury auction was notably weak, although it had little market impact given the substantial repricing already seen during the session. The offering tailed by 1bp, compared with the prior auction's sizeable 1.7bp stop-through, while the bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.46x from 2.77x. Indirect participation slumped to 61.2% from 80.3%, while dealers were left with a larger 9.8% allocation, although direct participation improved to 29.0% from 17.1%. Supply Notes/Bonds US to sell USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on November 12th. US sold USD 42bln of 10-year notes; tails 1bps STIRS / OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 27.4bps (prev. 21.1bps), Mar 58.5bps (prev. 39.1bps). EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 95bln (prev. USD 105bln) on November 9th SOFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.89%), volumes at USD 3.1tln (prev. USD 3.174tln) on November 9th NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.15bln (prev. 0.25bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 3) on November 10th CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 0.81 LOWER AT 86.04/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 1.08 LOWER AT 91.49/BBL The crude complex was lower amid continued optimism over a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks. Crude benchmarks tested session lows on Tuesday after Al Hadath, citing sources, reported that Iran agreed to US demands to cut its levels of highly enriched uranium. This is in keeping with Monday’s reports that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%, which Tehran has agreed to. Amid plenty of headline newsflow, WTI and Brent later rose to session highs of USD 86.93/bbl and USD 92.84/bbl, respectively, after Iran’s Security Chief Rezaei said Iran had asked the US for a clear and explicit response to its conditions but has not received one to date, according to Al Mayadeen. Rezaei added that the Strait of Hormuz will not open until Iran’s conditions are met, and that US claims of ongoing negotiations and a Qatar meeting are false. Oil moved higher as his comments poured cold water on the recent positive US-Iran rhetoric. Most recently, the Jerusalem Post reported that Qatari PM Al Thani told G7 Foreign Ministers in Paris that Doha had secured “at least two weeks” to pursue diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching an understanding between Washington and Tehran, but added that significant differences remain, with several key issues still unresolved. Elsewhere, Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks finished for the day and are set to continue on Wednesday. In the November EIA STEO, the agency kept its 2026 world oil demand forecast unchanged at 102.4mln bpd and cut its 2027 forecast to 104.4mln bpd from 104.6mln bpd. Looking ahead, private inventory data are due after-hours. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX -0.36% at 7,523, NDX -0.60% at 27,750, DJI -0.29% at 52,237, RUT -0.65% at 2,822. SECTORS: Financials +0.49%, Consumer Discretionary +0.46%, Energy +0.33%, Health +0.29%, Consumer Staples +0.22%, Industrials -0.08%, Real Estate -0.10%, Communication Services -0.15%, Utilities -0.23%, Materials -0.55%, Technology -1.40%. EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +0.47% at 26,390, FTSE 100 -0.29% at 10,752, CAC 40 +0.55% at 8,279, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.68% at 6,333, AEX +0.22% at 1,132, IBEX 35 +0.98% at 19,936, FTSE MIB +0.69% at 51,755. STOCK SPECIFICS: Nvidia (NVDA): CEO's affair with alleged Chinese spy reportedly facilitated the sale of at least $7.5bln in chips to China Anthropic targets a $1tln market value in its IPO. Goldman Sachs projects Anthropic revenue of more than USD 600bln by 2030 (vs. USD 4.6bln in 2025), reports FT. Finally, Anthropic unveiled office tools ahead of IPO, rivalling Microsoft (MSFT), according to reports. Lam Research (LRCX), Micron Technology (MU), Nvidia (NVDA): Have been removed from the US 1 list at BofA Take-Two Interactive (TTWO): Narrower-than-exp. Q loss & unprecedented pre-orders for GTA VI Lucid Group (LCID): Deeper loss per shr. than exp. & rev. light Rocket Lab (RKLB): Profit light & sees larger-than-exp. next Q adj. EBITDA loss Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): Surprise Q loss, rev. missed & downgraded FY guidance FX The Dollar Index saw notable gains, to the detriment of all G10 peers, as hawkish remarks from Waller followed by a hot inflation report gave the Greenback all the impetus it needed. Earlier in the session, the Buck strengthened after Waller’s surprisingly hawkish remarks, in which he said further policy tightening will be needed and that a half-point hike may be warranted in December if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The CPI report then showed core M/M at 0.3%, above expectations, with headline M/M also topping forecasts, prompting a broad-based hawkish reaction across markets. Money markets now assign a 10% probability of a 50bps Fed hike in December, with a 25bps increase fully priced. Elsewhere, Logan (2026 voter) said it is clear the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes, and that it may be possible to raise rates more rapidly this winter than the Fed has done so far. As such, participants will look to see whether the camp for a larger December hike grows, or whether Waller remains an outlier. G10 FX was lower across the board against the Greenback, with the Aussie the laggard, weighed on by risk-off sentiment as well as mixed Chinese data overnight. Currency-specific newsflow was light, with trade dominated by the themes above, although there was some central bank speak. BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said a further 25bps rate hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but that a decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict. ECB’s Lane said it would be prudent to hike in December if incoming data do not materially change the outlook. Along similar lines, Kazaks said the ECB may need to tighten in December, while Nagel said a December hike is likely.